Panic herding: Analysts' COVID-19 experiences and the interpretation of earnings news

Abstract

This paper examines how local experiences of the COVID-19 pandemic affect sell- side analysts’ interpretation of earnings news. By exploiting the variation in the intensity and timing of local outbreaks, I show that analysts who are more exposed to the virus tend to herd more closely with the consensus forecast. However, I find no evidence of increases in forecast pessimism. The data are consistent with the intensity of exposure to the pandemic having a first-order effect on analysts’ risk attitudes, rather than on the bias of their stated expectations.