Analytic Methods in Accident Research最新文献

筛选
英文 中文
Assessing non-motorist safety in motor vehicle crashes – a copula-based approach to jointly estimate crash location type and injury severity 评估机动车碰撞事故中的非机动车驾驶员安全--基于共轭的方法,共同估算碰撞地点类型和伤害严重程度
IF 12.9 1区 工程技术
Analytic Methods in Accident Research Pub Date : 2024-03-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.amar.2024.100322
Robert Marcoux, Shahrior Pervaz, Naveen Eluru
{"title":"Assessing non-motorist safety in motor vehicle crashes – a copula-based approach to jointly estimate crash location type and injury severity","authors":"Robert Marcoux,&nbsp;Shahrior Pervaz,&nbsp;Naveen Eluru","doi":"10.1016/j.amar.2024.100322","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amar.2024.100322","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Non-motorist injury severity can be affected by various observed and unobserved attributes related to the crash location type (segment or intersection). Recognizing the distinct non-motorist injury severity profiles by crash location type, we propose a joint modeling framework to study crash location type and non-motorist injury severity as two dimensions of the severity process. We employ a copula-based joint framework that ties the crash location type (represented as a binary logit model) and injury severity (represented as a generalized ordered logit model) through a closed form flexible dependency structure to study the injury severity process. The proposed approach also accommodates the potential heterogeneity (across non-motorists) in the dependency structure. The data for our analysis is drawn from the Central Florida region for the years of 2015 to 2021. The model system explicitly accounts for temporal heterogeneity across the two dimensions. A comprehensive set of independent variables including non-motorist user characteristics, driver and vehicle characteristics, roadway attributes, weather and environmental factors, temporal and socio-demographic factors are considered for the analysis. We also conducted an elasticity analysis to show the actual magnitude of the independent variables on non-motorist injury severity for the two locations. The results highlight the importance of examining the effect of various independent variables on non-motorist injury severity outcome by crash location type.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47520,"journal":{"name":"Analytic Methods in Accident Research","volume":"42 ","pages":"Article 100322"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140187614","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Effects of speed difference on injury severity of freeway rear-end crashes: Insights from correlated joint random parameters bivariate probit models and temporal instability 速度差对高速公路追尾事故伤害严重程度的影响:相关联合随机参数双变量概率模型和时间不稳定性的启示
IF 12.9 1区 工程技术
Analytic Methods in Accident Research Pub Date : 2024-02-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.amar.2024.100320
Chenzhu Wang, Mohamed Abdel-Aty, Lei Han
{"title":"Effects of speed difference on injury severity of freeway rear-end crashes: Insights from correlated joint random parameters bivariate probit models and temporal instability","authors":"Chenzhu Wang,&nbsp;Mohamed Abdel-Aty,&nbsp;Lei Han","doi":"10.1016/j.amar.2024.100320","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amar.2024.100320","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Rear-end crashes particularly on freeways are the most frequent type of collisions causing many injuries, damage and congestion. This paper investigates the impact of varying speed differences between following and leading vehicles on injury severity in two-vehicle rear-end crashes. It develops three groups of correlated joint random parameters bivariate probit models with heterogeneity in means. The rear-end crash data from 2019 to 2021 on Interstate freeways in Florida are utilized, and categorized into periods before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic. The study considers two potential injury severity outcomes: no injury and injury/fatality, for both drivers involved in these crashes. The findings indicate that a range of variables, including driver, vehicle, roadway, environmental, crash, and temporal attributes, significantly influence the injury severity outcomes for drivers in both following and leading vehicles. Demonstrating superior goodness-of-fit, the proposed approach sheds light on interactive unobserved heterogeneity, captured through heterogeneity in means and significant correlations among random parameters. The study observes critical influences on the injury severity outcomes of both drivers, with significant factors such as gender, age, vehicle type, weather conditions, lighting, and time of day. Furthermore, the results substantiate the heightened risk outcomes associated with greater speed differences and the period of the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings yield further insights into the risk mechanisms of two-vehicle rear-end crashes and offer guidance for the development of effective safety countermeasures.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47520,"journal":{"name":"Analytic Methods in Accident Research","volume":"42 ","pages":"Article 100320"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139993615","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A novel integrated approach to modeling and predicting crash frequency by crash event state 按碰撞事件状态模拟和预测碰撞频率的新型综合方法
IF 12.9 1区 工程技术
Analytic Methods in Accident Research Pub Date : 2024-02-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.amar.2024.100319
Angela Haddad , Aupal Mondal , Naveen Eluru , Chandra R. Bhat
{"title":"A novel integrated approach to modeling and predicting crash frequency by crash event state","authors":"Angela Haddad ,&nbsp;Aupal Mondal ,&nbsp;Naveen Eluru ,&nbsp;Chandra R. Bhat","doi":"10.1016/j.amar.2024.100319","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.amar.2024.100319","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this study, we propose a novel integrated parametric framework for analyzing multivariate crash count data based on linking a univariate count model for the total count of motor vehicle crashes across all possible crash states with a discrete choice model for crash event state given a crash. In doing so, we are able to use information at the disaggregate crash-level from an unordered model structure in analyzing the aggregate level crash count. To our knowledge, this is the first such model proposed in the econometric literature. We apply this approach in a demonstration exercise to examine the number of motor vehicle crashes in Census Block Groups (CBGs) in Austin, Texas, considering four injury severity levels. At the disaggregate level, we incorporate several explanatory variables such as the characteristics of the most severely injured individual and at-fault vehicle’s parties, crash time variables (time of day, weather), crash location variables, and CBG level variables. At the aggregate level, we consider CBG level variables, including road design factors, land-use variables, crash exposure factors, aggregate sociodemographic attributes, and crime and traffic violations related measures. Importantly, our results indicate a significant and positive linkage between the disaggregate crash event state dimensions and the total crash count. Through the use of elasticity measures, our results also clearly highlight the improved policy sensitivity of the integrated model framework.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47520,"journal":{"name":"Analytic Methods in Accident Research","volume":"41 ","pages":"Article 100319"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213665724000034/pdfft?md5=3dc98bb8dced6fd4dab9a0b82b2486e1&pid=1-s2.0-S2213665724000034-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139880295","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Estimating the effect of proximity to school on cyclist safety using a simultaneous-equations model with heterogeneity in covariance to address potential endogeneity 利用具有协方差异质性的同期方程模型估算学校距离对骑车人安全的影响,以解决潜在的内生性问题
IF 12.9 1区 工程技术
Analytic Methods in Accident Research Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.amar.2024.100318
Shahram Heydari, Michael Forrest
{"title":"Estimating the effect of proximity to school on cyclist safety using a simultaneous-equations model with heterogeneity in covariance to address potential endogeneity","authors":"Shahram Heydari,&nbsp;Michael Forrest","doi":"10.1016/j.amar.2024.100318","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.amar.2024.100318","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Traffic safety around schools is a major concern for policy makers and as such safety interventions are often targeted near schools. This paper shows the importance of accounting for the potential endogeneity of proximity to school when attempting to estimate its impact on traffic safety. In this research, we use a Bayesian simultaneous econometric approach with heterogeneity in covariance to disentangle the true effect of proximity to school on cyclist injury frequencies at signalised intersections in an urban setting. We assess the robustness of the bivariate normal assumption, using a scale mixing approach. Notably, we found that proximity to school was associated with an increase in cyclist injuries and this association was stronger when endogeneity was accounted for in the model, confirming the importance of considering endogeneity in studies of traffic safety near schools. Our heterogeneity in covariance specification revealed systematic variations in the covariance structure, which would otherwise go unobserved, providing further insights into sources of heterogeneity with the same set of variables available in the data. A safety-in-numbers effect is also found for cyclists in the study area and period. This research offers policy implications based on the findings of the analysis including the need for safety interventions at intersections with high vehicle turning counts and those in proximity to public transport stops, and better informing decision-makers regarding the magnitude of the impact of proximity to school on cyclist safety at intersections.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47520,"journal":{"name":"Analytic Methods in Accident Research","volume":"41 ","pages":"Article 100318"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213665724000022/pdfft?md5=b9f11e4f15aeb626452e0d2feeba9602&pid=1-s2.0-S2213665724000022-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139667445","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Prospective Study on the Anatomical Variations of the Frontal Recess and its Association with Computer Tomographic Signs of Sinusitis. 额部凹陷的解剖变异及其与鼻窦炎计算机断层扫描体征的关系的前瞻性研究。
IF 0.6 1区 工程技术
Analytic Methods in Accident Research Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Epub Date: 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1007/s12070-023-04193-3
Snigdha Girish Koliyote, Rohit Singh, Neethu Mary Mathew, Prakashini K
{"title":"A Prospective Study on the Anatomical Variations of the Frontal Recess and its Association with Computer Tomographic Signs of Sinusitis.","authors":"Snigdha Girish Koliyote, Rohit Singh, Neethu Mary Mathew, Prakashini K","doi":"10.1007/s12070-023-04193-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12070-023-04193-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The frontal recess region has a complex anatomy and HRCT scans of the paranasal sinuses (PNS) are the gold standard in evaluating it. Classification systems have been established to identify the frontal recess cells. The objectives of this study are to describe the incidence of anatomical variations, classify the anatomy of the frontal recess using the IFAC & Kuhn's classification systems, find the association between the anatomical variations and the incidence of CT signs of sinusitis. A prospective study of patients undergoing HRCT-PNS was carried out. The frontal recess region was evaluated and classified as per both classification systems. The prevalence of each frontal cell was identified; presence of CT signs of sinusitis was noted and the correlation between the two was evaluated. 272 sides of HRCT scans were evaluated. Prevalence of cells as per IFAC classification showed ANC - 98.2%, SAC-43.4%, SBC-33.1%, SAFC- 28.3%, FSC -25%, SBFC- 3.7% and SOEC- 2.2%. Prevalence of cells as per Kuhn's classification showed ANC - 98.2%, Type 1- 38.2%, SBC-32.7%, FSC -24.3%, Type 3- 16.9%, Type 2- 12.9%, Type 4- 4.8%, FBC- 2.6% and SOEC-2.2%. Sinusitis was seen in 27.2% cases. A significant association was noted between the presence of SOEC, FSC and sinusitis as per both classification systems. (P=0.049 and P<0.001 respectively). In conclusion the cells which lead to an anteriorly based drainage pathway are more common, but the presence of posteriorly based SOEC and medially based FSC have a higher association with sinusitis.</p>","PeriodicalId":47520,"journal":{"name":"Analytic Methods in Accident Research","volume":"32 1","pages":"495-502"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10908951/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75295074","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A multi-year statistical analysis of driver injury severities in single-vehicle freeway crashes with and without airbags deployed 对高速公路单车碰撞事故中安装和未安装安全气囊时驾驶员受伤严重程度的多年统计分析
IF 12.9 1区 工程技术
Analytic Methods in Accident Research Pub Date : 2024-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.amar.2024.100317
Richard Dzinyela , Nawaf Alnawmasi , Emmanuel Kofi Adanu , Bahar Dadashova , Dominique Lord , Fred Mannering
{"title":"A multi-year statistical analysis of driver injury severities in single-vehicle freeway crashes with and without airbags deployed","authors":"Richard Dzinyela ,&nbsp;Nawaf Alnawmasi ,&nbsp;Emmanuel Kofi Adanu ,&nbsp;Bahar Dadashova ,&nbsp;Dominique Lord ,&nbsp;Fred Mannering","doi":"10.1016/j.amar.2024.100317","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.amar.2024.100317","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper seeks to identify factors that influence driver injury severities in single-vehicle freeway crashes when airbags deployed and when airbags did not deploy. Injury-severity models were estimated using random parameters logit models with consideration given to possible heterogeneity in means and variances of the random parameters to account for unobserved heterogeneity. Three years of pre-COVID pandemic crash data (2016, 2017 and 2018) from the state of Alabama were used in the model estimations. Models were estimated with data from all years, but the model formulation allowed the estimated parameters to vary by year. The model estimation results show that there are fundamental differences in crashes where airbags deployed (which tend to be crashes associated with greater energy transfers and variance in such transfers across crashes) relative to crashes where airbags did not deploy (which tend to be crashes associated with lower-speed impacts with less variance in energy transfers across crash observations). Moreover, the effects of most of the explanatory variables on resulting injury severities were found to vary significantly over time. However, explanatory variables such as shoulder and lap belt use, driver gender, newer model year vehicles, passenger car vehicle types, urban-located crashes, collisions with deer, collisions with trees and collisions with cable barriers did not vary significantly over time in either the airbag or non-airbag deployed models, or both. The findings of this study suggest that there is a potential for advances airbag systems to substantially improve safety by closing the injury-severity gap observed between men and women in particular, and that there is a need to further explore the evolution of driver behavior over time, which ultimately determines the effectiveness of ongoing improvements in vehicle and highway safety systems.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47520,"journal":{"name":"Analytic Methods in Accident Research","volume":"41 ","pages":"Article 100317"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213665724000010/pdfft?md5=472fca9a18a0bfd8d8a7b5f27fa5b6d2&pid=1-s2.0-S2213665724000010-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139508997","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Poisson Lognormal-Lindley model for simultaneous estimation of multiple crash-types: Application of multivariate and pooled univariate models 用于同时估计多种碰撞类型的泊松对数正态-林德利模型:多变量和集合单变量模型的应用
IF 12.9 1区 工程技术
Analytic Methods in Accident Research Pub Date : 2023-12-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.amar.2023.100315
Hassan Bin Tahir , Shamsunnahar Yasmin , Md Mazharul Haque
{"title":"A Poisson Lognormal-Lindley model for simultaneous estimation of multiple crash-types: Application of multivariate and pooled univariate models","authors":"Hassan Bin Tahir ,&nbsp;Shamsunnahar Yasmin ,&nbsp;Md Mazharul Haque","doi":"10.1016/j.amar.2023.100315","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.amar.2023.100315","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Challenges addressing overdispersion, unobserved heterogeneity, the preponderance of zeros, and correlation in the dependent variables of crash count models are of significant interest. Accounting for all these data issues simultaneously is few and far between. This study proposes a new mixing distribution model that accounts for overdispersion and the preponderance of zeros in crash count models. The proposed mixing distribution model extends to the multivariate structure to account for correlations between dependent variables and unobserved heterogeneity. The empirical analysis is conducted on crash data of Bruce highway involving single-vehicle and multi-vehicle crash types by “fatal and severe injury” and “moderate and minor injury” severity levels on aggregated data over three analysis years (2016, 2017, and 2018). The study demonstrates superior goodness of fit of the proposed multivariate random parameters Poisson lognormal-Lindley model compared to its restricted models. Moreover, pooling the crash data as repeated measures of crash types helped formulate a pooled-univariate random parameters Poisson-Lindley model to estimate multiple crash types by severity. The results showed the pooled-univariate model offers comparable goodness of fit and averaged marginal effects as the complex multivariate modeling structure. Moreover, the proposed pooled-univariate model reduced the model complexity to a one-dimensional integral and offered more efficient parameter estimates. In the empirical context, the modeling results showed that single-vehicle and multi-vehicle crashes by severity are linked with different causality.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47520,"journal":{"name":"Analytic Methods in Accident Research","volume":"41 ","pages":"Article 100315"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2023-12-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213665723000507/pdfft?md5=e161889941e1c64dcd7951caa77c2e70&pid=1-s2.0-S2213665723000507-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139062197","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Multi-dimensional unobserved heterogeneities: Modeling likelihood of speeding behaviors in different patterns for taxi speeders with mixed distributions, multivariate errors, and jointly correlated random parameters 多维非观测异质性:对具有混合分布、多变量误差和共同相关随机参数的出租车超速者不同模式的超速行为可能性建模
IF 12.9 1区 工程技术
Analytic Methods in Accident Research Pub Date : 2023-12-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.amar.2023.100316
Yue Zhou , Chuanyun Fu , Xinguo Jiang
{"title":"Multi-dimensional unobserved heterogeneities: Modeling likelihood of speeding behaviors in different patterns for taxi speeders with mixed distributions, multivariate errors, and jointly correlated random parameters","authors":"Yue Zhou ,&nbsp;Chuanyun Fu ,&nbsp;Xinguo Jiang","doi":"10.1016/j.amar.2023.100316","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.amar.2023.100316","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Speeding behaviors can be classified into different patterns according to both speeding-range and speeding-distance. Among the speeding patterns, some are more frequently observed in specific traffic scenarios, implying that the likelihood of speeding behaviors may vary across the speeding patterns due to the inconsistent impact of temporal, road, environmental, and other traffic factors. Additionally, the trigger of speeding is a complex process so the researchers may not have access to all the critical information associated with the speeding behaviors. This issue may bring about not only independent heterogeneity but also multi-dimensional heterogeneities that are mutually correlated when modeling speeding behaviors by patterns. However, the joint solution to the above challenges is rarely seen in past studies. To fill the knowledge gaps, this study uses taxi GPS trajectories to extract speeding behaviors and classify them into four patterns. The speeder’s percent of speeding distance for each speeding pattern is respectively measured to represent the likelihood of speeding behaviors by patterns. Afterwards, we compare the data-fitting between the models combined with different beta-gamma mixture distributions and a multivariate Gaussian error in modeling the four patterns of speeding likelihood. The combination with the best fitness is used to incorporate jointly correlated random parameters. The results show that the model with beta-gamma-gamma-gamma mixed distributions performs better than other combinations. The model with jointly correlated random parameters outperforms models with other random parameters. The factor analysis reveals that percent of driving at night, percent of driving on roads with a low-speed limit (≤30 km/h), average delays in junctions along the trips, and hourly income have consistent effects on the likelihood of speeding behaviors in all patterns, while the effects of the remaining factors are inconsistent across the speeding patterns. Furthermore, the heterogeneity unveiled by the model parameters is discussed. The study highlights the necessity of considering mixed distributions and multi-dimensional heterogeneities in modeling speeding likelihood by different patterns.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47520,"journal":{"name":"Analytic Methods in Accident Research","volume":"41 ","pages":"Article 100316"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2023-12-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213665723000519/pdfft?md5=ce9030f5389cb04b225dad2b9f21b051&pid=1-s2.0-S2213665723000519-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139062133","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
On the need to address fixed-parameter issues before applying random parameters: A simulation-based study 在应用随机参数之前需要解决固定参数问题:基于模拟的研究
IF 12.9 1区 工程技术
Analytic Methods in Accident Research Pub Date : 2023-11-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.amar.2023.100314
Numan Ahmad , Tanmoy Bhowmik , Vikash V. Gayah , Naveen Eluru
{"title":"On the need to address fixed-parameter issues before applying random parameters: A simulation-based study","authors":"Numan Ahmad ,&nbsp;Tanmoy Bhowmik ,&nbsp;Vikash V. Gayah ,&nbsp;Naveen Eluru","doi":"10.1016/j.amar.2023.100314","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.amar.2023.100314","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Count regression models have been applied to model expected crash frequency at individual roadway locations. Random parameters have been increasingly integrated into these models to account for unobserved heterogeneity. However, the introduction of random parameters might also mask issues in the model specification, leading to inaccurate relationships and model interpretation. Two of these specification-related issues are: (1) not considering the appropriate functional form of explanatory variables; and, (2) ignoring the best set of significant explanatory variables. To better examine the need for careful model specification, this study uses synthetic data to demonstrate that the consideration of random parameters does not address the two model specification issues identified. The results from the simulation study illustrate that (a) model specification issues cannot be circumvented by random parameters alone and (b) random parameter models including the exhaustive set of explanatory variables available offer significant model improvements.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47520,"journal":{"name":"Analytic Methods in Accident Research","volume":"41 ","pages":"Article 100314"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2023-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213665723000490/pdfft?md5=758e1de36f599120beb557e28428c58c&pid=1-s2.0-S2213665723000490-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138538682","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Exploring variations and temporal instability of factors affecting driver injury severities between different vehicle impact locations under adverse road surface conditions 探讨不利路面条件下不同车辆碰撞位置驾驶员伤害严重程度影响因素的变化及时间不稳定性
IF 12.9 1区 工程技术
Analytic Methods in Accident Research Pub Date : 2023-11-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.amar.2023.100305
Qiaoqiao Ren, Min Xu
{"title":"Exploring variations and temporal instability of factors affecting driver injury severities between different vehicle impact locations under adverse road surface conditions","authors":"Qiaoqiao Ren,&nbsp;Min Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.amar.2023.100305","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.amar.2023.100305","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>The adverse road surface condition has been identified as an important factor resulting in serious casualties and property losses in traffic accidents, and there is a tremendous need to uncover the interaction mechanism between deteriorating road surfaces and vehicle impact locations on the driver injury severity at a disaggregate level. In this paper, three groups of random parameters logit models with heterogeneity in means (and variances) are developed to investigate the unobserved heterogeneity and temporal stability of the determinants affecting driver injury severity outcomes across different damage locations among single-vehicle crashes that occurred under adverse weather conditions. A three-year crash dataset gathered from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2017, in Ohio is utilized. Three crash injury severity categories including no injury, minor injury, and severe injury are identified as outcome variables, while crash characteristics, driver characteristics, temporal characteristics, vehicle characteristics, roadway characteristics, and environment characteristics are regarded as potential predictors influencing driver injury severities. Additionally, </span>likelihood ratio tests<span> and marginal effects are used to assess the temporal instability and impact location non-transferability of the explanatory variables. The results indicate an overall temporal and locational instability of model estimates while several determinants are identified to have consistent effects on injury severity outcomes such as animal-involved collisions, old drivers, safety restraint usage, female drivers, physically impaired drivers, and vehicles with insurance. This study also quantifies and characterizes the net effect of year-to-year and location-to-location shifts through probability differences between out-of-sample predictions and within-sample observations. Varying magnitudes and inconsistent directions of distribution characteristics (mean, skewness, kurtosis, and prediction accuracy) in the probability differences across different impact locations over time are captured. Moreover, this study indicates that the non-transferability of collision locations has a greater impact on the prediction accuracy than the temporal instability. The findings could potentially serve as a reference for transportation administrators to formulate effective safety strategies to better protect drivers from adverse-road-related crashes.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":47520,"journal":{"name":"Analytic Methods in Accident Research","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100305"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2023-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135614947","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
0
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
相关产品
×
本文献相关产品
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信