The role of posted speed limit on pedestrian and bicycle injury severities: An investigation into systematic and unobserved heterogeneities

IF 12.5 1区 工程技术 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH
{"title":"The role of posted speed limit on pedestrian and bicycle injury severities: An investigation into systematic and unobserved heterogeneities","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.amar.2024.100351","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The posted speed limit, as a proxy of actual speed, is one of the most fundamental predictors of active travelers’ (pedestrian and bicyclist) injury outcomes when involved in crashes with motor vehicles. Although earlier studies predominantly considered posted speed limit as an exogenous variable and provided highly insightful findings, majorities of them assume the effects of active traveler behavior to remain the same across different posted speed limits, which in turn neglect the heterogeneity in active traveler behaviors on high-speed roads vs. low-speed roads. This study proposes to develop a latent segmentation-based active traveler injury severity model to relax the homogeneity assumption of the posted speed limit by active traveler behavior. Specifically, this study proposes to estimate a latent segmentation-based correlated random parameters generalized ordered logit model to examine active travel injury severity mechanisms. The proposed model accommodates systematic heterogeneity in the effects of posted speed limit, crash year and active traveler group by using a piecewise linear function in injury severity component of the latent segment model. The model is demonstrated by using active traveler crash data from Queensland, Australia, for the years 2015 through 2019. To demonstrate the implications of the estimated models, a number of hypothetical scenario analyses are performed with a specific focus on active traveler behavior and reduction in posted speed limits. The outcomes from the hypothetical scenario analysis highlighted that a 76 % (73 %) reduction in active traveler fatalities can be achieved by converting 50–60 km/hr roadways to 10–40 km/hr roadways in the urban areas (rural areas) of Queensland. The outcomes of the study will allow us to identify effective speed management strategies while targeting those with high-risk behavior.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47520,"journal":{"name":"Analytic Methods in Accident Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":12.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213665724000356/pdfft?md5=1107e410ee25ebd24c74e3af72ce8cc7&pid=1-s2.0-S2213665724000356-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Analytic Methods in Accident Research","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213665724000356","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

The posted speed limit, as a proxy of actual speed, is one of the most fundamental predictors of active travelers’ (pedestrian and bicyclist) injury outcomes when involved in crashes with motor vehicles. Although earlier studies predominantly considered posted speed limit as an exogenous variable and provided highly insightful findings, majorities of them assume the effects of active traveler behavior to remain the same across different posted speed limits, which in turn neglect the heterogeneity in active traveler behaviors on high-speed roads vs. low-speed roads. This study proposes to develop a latent segmentation-based active traveler injury severity model to relax the homogeneity assumption of the posted speed limit by active traveler behavior. Specifically, this study proposes to estimate a latent segmentation-based correlated random parameters generalized ordered logit model to examine active travel injury severity mechanisms. The proposed model accommodates systematic heterogeneity in the effects of posted speed limit, crash year and active traveler group by using a piecewise linear function in injury severity component of the latent segment model. The model is demonstrated by using active traveler crash data from Queensland, Australia, for the years 2015 through 2019. To demonstrate the implications of the estimated models, a number of hypothetical scenario analyses are performed with a specific focus on active traveler behavior and reduction in posted speed limits. The outcomes from the hypothetical scenario analysis highlighted that a 76 % (73 %) reduction in active traveler fatalities can be achieved by converting 50–60 km/hr roadways to 10–40 km/hr roadways in the urban areas (rural areas) of Queensland. The outcomes of the study will allow us to identify effective speed management strategies while targeting those with high-risk behavior.

张贴的车速限制对行人和自行车受伤严重程度的影响:系统和非观测异质性调查
张贴的限速值作为实际速度的替代值,是预测主动旅行者(行人和骑自行车者)在与机动车发生碰撞时受伤结果的最基本因素之一。虽然早期的研究主要将公布的速度限制视为外生变量,并提供了极具洞察力的研究结果,但其中大多数研究都假定在不同的公布速度限制下,主动旅行者行为的影响是相同的,这反过来又忽视了高速道路与低速道路上主动旅行者行为的异质性。本研究建议建立一个基于潜在细分的主动旅行者伤害严重性模型,以放宽主动旅行者行为对发布速度限制的同质性假设。具体来说,本研究建议估计一个基于潜在分段的相关随机参数广义有序 Logit 模型,以研究主动旅行伤害严重性机制。所提议的模型通过在潜在分段模型的伤害严重程度部分使用片断线性函数,考虑了张贴速度限制、碰撞年份和主动旅行者群体影响的系统异质性。利用澳大利亚昆士兰州 2015 年至 2019 年的主动旅行者碰撞数据对该模型进行了演示。为了展示估计模型的影响,我们进行了一系列假设情景分析,重点关注主动旅行者行为和降低张贴的速度限制。假设情景分析的结果表明,在昆士兰州的城市地区(农村地区),将 50-60 公里/小时的车速道路改为 10-40 公里/小时的车速道路,可减少 76% (73%)的主动交通事故死亡人数。研究结果将使我们能够确定有效的车速管理策略,同时将目标锁定在高风险行为者身上。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 求助全文
来源期刊
CiteScore
22.10
自引率
34.10%
发文量
35
审稿时长
24 days
期刊介绍: Analytic Methods in Accident Research is a journal that publishes articles related to the development and application of advanced statistical and econometric methods in studying vehicle crashes and other accidents. The journal aims to demonstrate how these innovative approaches can provide new insights into the factors influencing the occurrence and severity of accidents, thereby offering guidance for implementing appropriate preventive measures. While the journal primarily focuses on the analytic approach, it also accepts articles covering various aspects of transportation safety (such as road, pedestrian, air, rail, and water safety), construction safety, and other areas where human behavior, machine failures, or system failures lead to property damage or bodily harm.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信