{"title":"The fertility response to price changes in a manorial society: The case of rural Estonia, 1834–1884","authors":"Martin Klesment, Kersti Lust","doi":"10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101653","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101653","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the pre-industrial era, changing economic conditions had a strong influence on demographic processes. Using pre-industrial rural Estonia as an example, the article studies fertility response to short-term economic stress in a manorial society in eastern Europe. It considers whether the fertility response to rye price fluctuations was deliberate and whether it was socially differentiated. It appears that an increase in the price of rye resulted in the drop of conceptions within the next year and the magnitude of the impact on fertility was roughly similar to that in several other European settings in the 19th century. As long as the manorial system was maintained, farmers were more sensitive to price hikes than the landless, but with the decline of the mutual economic dependence between manors and farms, the landless laborers became more vulnerable to price increases. Our analysis of the timing of the fertility response reveals no deliberate postponement of conceptions immediately before or after the low harvests or price increases. Instead, conceptions dropped only in the spring and summer season of the next year, indicating a non-deliberate and spontaneous response.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47413,"journal":{"name":"Explorations in Economic History","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 101653"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142975129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"历史学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Poverty in Germany from the Black Death until the Beginning of Industrialization","authors":"Guido Alfani , Victoria Gierok , Felix Schaff","doi":"10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101630","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101630","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper provides macro-level estimates of the prevalence of poverty in preindustrial Germany, from the Black Death to the onset of industrialization in the nineteenth century. Based on a new body of evidence we show that poverty declined after two large-scale catastrophes: the Black Death in the fourteenth century and the Thirty Years’ War in the seventeenth. Poverty increased substantially in the sixteenth century, and stagnated in the eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. This pattern is broadly in line with a Malthusian model of the preindustrial economy, but also with several other explanations of poverty. Circa 1600, poverty and inequality extraction were at a historical peak – right when social conflict erupted in Germany.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47413,"journal":{"name":"Explorations in Economic History","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 101630"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142825467","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"历史学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The evolution of the value of water power during the Industrial Revolution","authors":"Todd Guilfoos","doi":"10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101645","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101645","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This work measures the historical evolution of the value of water power during the Industrial Revolution in the United States. I use the variation in county level agricultural land prices and the natural endowment of water power to identify the value of water power. This value is decomposed into direct values (power as a prime mover) and indirect values (attracting infrastructure) from 1850 to 1920; prior to 1900 approximately 85%–90% of the total value is derived from the direct effect of water power. Significant devaluation of water-power endowments occur after 1900, with a significant decline in value by 1920.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47413,"journal":{"name":"Explorations in Economic History","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 101645"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142793219","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"历史学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Protestantism and human capital: Evidence from early 20th century Ireland","authors":"Alan Fernihough , Stuart Henderson","doi":"10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101647","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101647","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using a large individual-level dataset, we explore the significance of religious affiliation for human capital variation in Ireland at the turn of the twentieth century. We construct a large sample based on the returns of male household heads in the 1901 census and explore variation in literacy across the three principal denominations: Roman Catholicism, Anglicanism and Presbyterianism. Protestantism, particularly Presbyterianism, is associated with higher levels of human capital. This denominational effect is remarkably robust, even when accounting for various control variables and alternative modelling specifications. Supplementary analyses reveal that these literacy disparities existed before the foundation of centralised national schooling in 1831 and were independent of school attendance, as Presbyterians exhibited lower attendance rates than Anglicans. We suggest that denomination mattered because it affected the incentives to accrue literacy ability to fully participate in religious and wider cultural life.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47413,"journal":{"name":"Explorations in Economic History","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 101647"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142793218","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"历史学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Long-term trends in income and wealth inequality in southern Italy. The Kingdom of Naples (Apulia), sixteenth to eighteenth centuries","authors":"Guido Alfani , Sergio Sardone","doi":"10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101646","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101646","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper uses new archival sources to study the long-term tendencies in economic inequality in preindustrial southern Italy (Kingdom of Naples). The paper reconstructs long-term trends in wealth inequality for the period 1550–1800 for a sample of communities in the region Apulia and produces estimates of overall inequality levels across the region. These estimates are compared with those which have recently been published for other Italian and European regions or states. The article also reconstructs the total income distribution for the mid-eighteenth century, then comparing wealth and income inequality. Overall, the evidence for the Kingdom of Naples suggests a tendency for economic inequality to grow continuously over the early modern period. As this was mostly a period of economic stagnation or decline for the Kingdom, the article provides further insights to the debate on the long-run relationship between economic growth and inequality change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47413,"journal":{"name":"Explorations in Economic History","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 101646"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142793277","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"历史学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Monumental effects: Confederate monuments in the Post-Reconstruction South","authors":"Alexander N. Taylor","doi":"10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101635","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101635","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper explores the contemporaneous effects of Confederate monuments dedicated in the Post-Reconstruction South. I combine monument, election, and census data to create an election-year panel dataset of former Confederate counties between 1878–1912, then exploit the temporally staggered and geographically distributed dedication of monuments using a generalized difference-in-differences design. I find that monuments caused increases in Democratic Party vote share and decreases in voter turnout, with less robust decreases in Black population share. I find some evidence that more intense monument-building is associated with a decrease in Black lynchings. I also find varying effects based on the era of monument dedication, the intensity of monument-building, and monument characteristics. To address potential mechanisms, I present evidence that monuments were associated with increased use of famous Confederate names for children and show that decreases in voter turnout occurred exclusively in areas with larger Black population shares. Overall, my results suggest monuments promoted a distorted view of Civil War history that primarily persuaded southern whites, but also contributed to Black political suppression. The findings have implications for current debates over Confederate monuments in the United States.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47413,"journal":{"name":"Explorations in Economic History","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 101635"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142670372","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"历史学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Who collaborates with the Soviets? Financial distress and technology transfer during the Great Depression","authors":"Jerry Jiang , Jacob P. Weber","doi":"10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101637","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101637","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We provide evidence that financial distress induces firms to sell their technology to foreign competitors. To do so, we construct a novel, spatial panel dataset by individually researching and locating U.S. firms who signed Technology Transfer Agreements (TTAs) with the Soviet Union during the 1920s and 1930s in various U.S. counties. By relating the number of TTAs signed in each county to the number of bank failures, we establish a significant, positive relationship between financial distress and the number of firms signing TTAs with the Soviet Union. Our findings suggest that banking panics may create opportunities for foreign countries to acquire affected firms’ technology.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47413,"journal":{"name":"Explorations in Economic History","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 101637"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142758697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"历史学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Incredible commitment: Influence accumulation, consensus-making, and the collapse of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth","authors":"Mikołaj Malinowski","doi":"10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101633","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101633","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>I aim to explain the petrification of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth's parliament due to the veto in the 17th and 18th centuries. I study genealogical data on senatorial ancestors and identify the formation of an oligarchic elite. I propose that the accumulation of influence by powerful individuals undermined their vested interest in the state's continuation. This weakened the elite's ability to credibly commit to political agreements, reach consensus, and sustain the extractive regime. I argue that the overly limited king failed to act as an arbiter in oligarchic disputes. This challenges the conventional view regarding the benefits of limited royal authority.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47413,"journal":{"name":"Explorations in Economic History","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 101633"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142793371","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"历史学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Stefan Bauernschuster , Matthias Blum , Erik Hornung , Christoph Koenig
{"title":"The political effects of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Weimar Germany","authors":"Stefan Bauernschuster , Matthias Blum , Erik Hornung , Christoph Koenig","doi":"10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101648","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101648","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How did the 1918 Influenza pandemic affect elections in Weimar Germany? We combine a panel of election results (1893–1933) with spatial heterogeneity in excess flu mortality to assess the pandemic’s effect on voting behavior across constituencies. Applying a dynamic differences-in-differences approach, we find that areas with higher influenza mortality saw a lasting shift towards leftwing parties. We argue that pandemic intensity increased the salience of public health policy, prompting voters to reward parties signaling competence in health issues. Alternative explanations such as pandemic-induced economic hardship, punishment of incumbents, or political polarization are not supported by our findings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47413,"journal":{"name":"Explorations in Economic History","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 101648"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142901965","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"历史学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The escape from hunger: The impact of food prices on well-being in Sweden, 1813–1967","authors":"Tommy Bengtsson, Luciana Quaranta","doi":"10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101652","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101652","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study analyses how the standard of living for different social groups changed when Sweden developed from an agricultural to an industrial society and when the first steps towards a modern welfare society were taken. As a measure of living standards, we use the ability to overcome short-term economic stress caused by high food prices. We use individual-level longitudinal data from 1813 to 1967 for a rural/semi-urban area in southern Sweden with similar economic development, occupational structure, life expectancy and fertility to the country as a whole. We found that during the first part of the 19th century, when agriculture was reformed and grain became an export product, workers, but not farmers and other social groups, deliberately postponed births in response to rising food prices. Despite these efforts to maintain consumption, workers and their families suffered increased mortality risks during years of high food prices, indicating that they lived close to the subsistence margin and could not save to ensure consumption in bad times. In the second half of the 19th century, rising real wages improved workers’ living conditions and the mortality response to economic stress decreased. By the 20th century, as the economy progressed and welfare systems emerged, the mortality response disappeared entirely. In contrast, childbearing was still affected by economic cycles but now only during turmoil of the First World War and the 1918 influenza pandemic and not afterwards.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47413,"journal":{"name":"Explorations in Economic History","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 101652"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142901964","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"历史学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}