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Taxing windfall money: A quasi-experimental study 对意外之财征税：一项准实验研究
IF 1.9 4区 经济学
Contemporary Economic Policy Pub Date : 2026-04-03 Epub Date: 2025-07-23 DOI: 10.1111/coep.70002
Álvaro Muñiz-Fernández, Levi Pérez
{"title":"Taxing windfall money: A quasi-experimental study","authors":"Álvaro Muñiz-Fernández,&nbsp;Levi Pérez","doi":"10.1111/coep.70002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/coep.70002","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper examines individuals' reaction to windfall income taxation. We take advantage of similar tax reforms on lottery winnings in Portugal and Spain in 2013 to study effects on lottery participation in both countries. Using a Synthetic Difference in Differences approach on a database of 348 draws from EuroMillions, our results indicate that taxation caused a decline in sales by 11.75% in low jackpot draws, with no significant effects for larger jackpots. These findings suggest that individuals fail to adjust their behavior when potential gains are large, likely due to overestimating the likelihood of winning and underestimating the tax burden.</p>","PeriodicalId":47364,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Economic Policy","volume":"44 2","pages":"319-332"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2026-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/coep.70002","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147684071","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Timing of SNAP disbursement and crime incidence in the United States 在美国，紧急援助计划的支付时间和犯罪率
IF 1.9 4区 经济学
Contemporary Economic Policy Pub Date : 2026-04-03 Epub Date: 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1111/coep.70005
Licheng Xu
{"title":"Timing of SNAP disbursement and crime incidence in the United States","authors":"Licheng Xu","doi":"10.1111/coep.70005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/coep.70005","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The timing of welfare benefit distribution is critical but often neglected when evaluating the efficacy of welfare programs. Taking the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) as an example, this study explores whether and how variation in the timing of food assistance distribution affects crime incidence. Analyzing crime data from 36 U.S. states (2006–2017) and SNAP administrative data, it finds that more distribution days and a longer staggering period in SNAP reduce financially motivated crime, especially robbery. The most extended schedule could yield a $2.7 million nationwide benefit from fewer robberies.</p>","PeriodicalId":47364,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Economic Policy","volume":"44 2","pages":"275-298"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2026-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147683163","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Heterogeneity of shifts in economic expectations around elections 选举前后经济预期变化的异质性
IF 1.9 4区 经济学
Contemporary Economic Policy Pub Date : 2026-04-03 Epub Date: 2025-07-22 DOI: 10.1111/coep.70001
Paul Niekamp
{"title":"Heterogeneity of shifts in economic expectations around elections","authors":"Paul Niekamp","doi":"10.1111/coep.70001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/coep.70001","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper uses the Survey of Consumer Expectations to study the effects of the 2016 and 2020 US elections on economic expectations. I find that Trump's 2016 election victory elicited broad-based improvements in US stock price and debt expectations, transcending the “winning team.” Aggregate expectations of a US debt level decrease more than doubled. While stronger for white individuals, improvements were distributed across demographics, including predicted Democrat voters, except black individuals. I find no evidence that Biden's 2020 election victory elicited improvements in expectations of the “winning team.” Aggregate stock market expectations decreased and individuals anticipated a higher unemployment rate.</p>","PeriodicalId":47364,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Economic Policy","volume":"44 2","pages":"299-318"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2026-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147683885","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Are U.S. states' banks unique? 美国各州的银行是独一无二的吗？
IF 1.9 4区 经济学
Contemporary Economic Policy Pub Date : 2026-04-03 Epub Date: 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1111/coep.70014
Eduardo G. Minuci, Scott Schuh
{"title":"Are U.S. states' banks unique?","authors":"Eduardo G. Minuci,&nbsp;Scott Schuh","doi":"10.1111/coep.70014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/coep.70014","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper documents widespread, persistent heterogeneity in the composition and financial behavior of banks across U.S. states since 1997 that cannot be explained well by econometric models of deposit-loan allocations with observable bank and regional characteristics. Despite faster consolidation, slow-growth states have more, smaller, and less profitable banks with customers and managers favoring liabilities (time deposits) and assets (real estate loans) with longer maturity and lower risk/returns. A theoretical model with joint determination of deposit and loan portfolios in the regional economy is needed to explain cross-state heterogeneity. Risk aversion of banks' customers and managers is a possible contributing factor.</p>","PeriodicalId":47364,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Economic Policy","volume":"44 2","pages":"426-461"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2026-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147683017","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
External validity of inferred attribute non-attendance: Evidence from a laboratory experiment with real and hypothetical payoffs 推断属性不出席的外部有效性：来自真实和假设回报的实验室实验的证据
IF 1.9 4区 经济学
Contemporary Economic Policy Pub Date : 2026-04-03 Epub Date: 2025-08-22 DOI: 10.1111/coep.70008
Tanga M. Mohr, John C. Whitehead
{"title":"External validity of inferred attribute non-attendance: Evidence from a laboratory experiment with real and hypothetical payoffs","authors":"Tanga M. Mohr,&nbsp;John C. Whitehead","doi":"10.1111/coep.70008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/coep.70008","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We use attribute non-attendance (ANA) models to analyze differences in laboratory experiments with real and hypothetical payoffs. In both payoff treatments, we find that the effect of the cost of an emissions permit on behavior differs if the cost is implicit or explicit. In inferred ANA models with the real payment data we find no evidence of ANA. With the hypothetical treatment data we find evidence of ANA on two of the four choice attributes. We do not find evidence that real and hypothetical decisions converge to theoretical predictions once ANA is accounted for.</p>","PeriodicalId":47364,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Economic Policy","volume":"44 2","pages":"367-379"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2026-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/coep.70008","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147683980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Are U.S. states' banks unique? 美国各州的银行是独一无二的吗？
IF 1.9 4区 经济学
Contemporary Economic Policy Pub Date : 2026-04-03 Epub Date: 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1111/coep.70014
Eduardo G. Minuci, Scott Schuh
{"title":"Are U.S. states' banks unique?","authors":"Eduardo G. Minuci,&nbsp;Scott Schuh","doi":"10.1111/coep.70014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/coep.70014","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper documents widespread, persistent heterogeneity in the composition and financial behavior of banks across U.S. states since 1997 that cannot be explained well by econometric models of deposit-loan allocations with observable bank and regional characteristics. Despite faster consolidation, slow-growth states have more, smaller, and less profitable banks with customers and managers favoring liabilities (time deposits) and assets (real estate loans) with longer maturity and lower risk/returns. A theoretical model with joint determination of deposit and loan portfolios in the regional economy is needed to explain cross-state heterogeneity. Risk aversion of banks' customers and managers is a possible contributing factor.</p>","PeriodicalId":47364,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Economic Policy","volume":"44 2","pages":"426-461"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2026-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147682986","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Timing of SNAP disbursement and crime incidence in the United States 在美国，紧急援助计划的支付时间和犯罪率
IF 1.9 4区 经济学
Contemporary Economic Policy Pub Date : 2026-04-03 Epub Date: 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1111/coep.70005
Licheng Xu
{"title":"Timing of SNAP disbursement and crime incidence in the United States","authors":"Licheng Xu","doi":"10.1111/coep.70005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/coep.70005","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The timing of welfare benefit distribution is critical but often neglected when evaluating the efficacy of welfare programs. Taking the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) as an example, this study explores whether and how variation in the timing of food assistance distribution affects crime incidence. Analyzing crime data from 36 U.S. states (2006–2017) and SNAP administrative data, it finds that more distribution days and a longer staggering period in SNAP reduce financially motivated crime, especially robbery. The most extended schedule could yield a $2.7 million nationwide benefit from fewer robberies.</p>","PeriodicalId":47364,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Economic Policy","volume":"44 2","pages":"275-298"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2026-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147683164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A human capital theory of who escapes the grasp of the local monopsonist 一个人力资本理论，谁逃脱了当地垄断者的掌控
IF 1.9 4区 经济学
Contemporary Economic Policy Pub Date : 2026-04-03 Epub Date: 2025-10-21 DOI: 10.1111/coep.70013
Matthew E. Kahn, Joseph S. Tracy
{"title":"A human capital theory of who escapes the grasp of the local monopsonist","authors":"Matthew E. Kahn,&nbsp;Joseph S. Tracy","doi":"10.1111/coep.70013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/coep.70013","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In local labor markets where firms exercise monopsony power, workers lose out in terms of earnings and job satisfaction as they have fewer and less attractive job options to choose from. High skilled mobile workers can avoid monopsony costs by moving to other more competitive local labor markets. Counties with concentrated labor markets are predicted to experience a “brain drain” over time. Using data over 4 decades, we document this deskilling and loss of high-income workers associated with local monopsony power. We explore private and public policy strategies for helping workers to adapt to the costs imposed by local monopsony.</p>","PeriodicalId":47364,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Economic Policy","volume":"44 2","pages":"462-481"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2026-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147684029","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Should more teams “trust the process” of tanking? 是否应该有更多的球队“相信烂队的过程”？
IF 1.9 4区 经济学
Contemporary Economic Policy Pub Date : 2026-04-03 Epub Date: 2025-06-07 DOI: 10.1111/coep.12705
Eduardo G. Minuci, Alexander Cardazzi, Candon Johnson
{"title":"Should more teams “trust the process” of tanking?","authors":"Eduardo G. Minuci,&nbsp;Alexander Cardazzi,&nbsp;Candon Johnson","doi":"10.1111/coep.12705","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/coep.12705","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In many professional sport leagues, the worst-performing teams receive higher probability of earning top draft picks. This provides teams incentives to purposefully lose, or “tank,” if they are not likely to contend for the playoffs or championships. We evaluate the effectiveness of tanking to improve team outcomes by examining the most explicit tanking case in the NBA: the “Trust the Process” Philadelphia 76ers. Using synthetic control, we demonstrate that tanking caused the 76ers to be more successful in terms of winning and operating income. However, only operating income had a plausibly positive present value when calculating discounted present values.</p>","PeriodicalId":47364,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Economic Policy","volume":"44 2","pages":"408-425"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2026-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/coep.12705","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147683454","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Did the Plaza Accord cause Japan's real estate bubble? 广场协议导致了日本的房地产泡沫吗？
IF 1.9 4区 经济学
Contemporary Economic Policy Pub Date : 2026-04-03 Epub Date: 2025-08-04 DOI: 10.1111/coep.70003
Jedediah Pida-Reese
{"title":"Did the Plaza Accord cause Japan's real estate bubble?","authors":"Jedediah Pida-Reese","doi":"10.1111/coep.70003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/coep.70003","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In 1985 the international exchange rate intervention known as the “Plaza Accord” was carried out between the G-5 countries, the US, Japan, Germany, France, and the UK. In this study I employ the synthetic control method to examine if there was a causal effect of the Plaza Accord on residential housing prices in Japan. Following the agreement Japan experienced a bubble in urban real estate and the stock market. I find small and insignificant effects of the Plaza Accord on real housing prices in the several years following it, providing evidence that the Accord did not exacerbate the bubble.</p>","PeriodicalId":47364,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Economic Policy","volume":"44 2","pages":"333-366"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2026-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147683231","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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