Taxing windfall money: A quasi-experimental study

IF 1.9 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Contemporary Economic Policy Pub Date : 2026-04-03 Epub Date: 2025-07-23 DOI:10.1111/coep.70002

Álvaro Muñiz-Fernández, Levi Pérez

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper examines individuals' reaction to windfall income taxation. We take advantage of similar tax reforms on lottery winnings in Portugal and Spain in 2013 to study effects on lottery participation in both countries. Using a Synthetic Difference in Differences approach on a database of 348 draws from EuroMillions, our results indicate that taxation caused a decline in sales by 11.75% in low jackpot draws, with no significant effects for larger jackpots. These findings suggest that individuals fail to adjust their behavior when potential gains are large, likely due to overestimating the likelihood of winning and underestimating the tax burden.

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对意外之财征税：一项准实验研究

本文考察了个人对意外收入税的反应。我们利用2013年葡萄牙和西班牙类似的彩票奖金税收改革来研究这两个国家对彩票参与的影响。在EuroMillions的348次抽奖数据库上使用综合差异方法，我们的结果表明，税收导致低头奖抽奖的销售额下降11.75%，对较大的头奖没有显着影响。这些发现表明，当潜在收益很大时，个人无法调整自己的行为，这可能是由于高估了获胜的可能性，低估了税收负担。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Contemporary Economic Policy Multiple-

CiteScore

3.10

自引率

6.70%

发文量

期刊介绍： Contemporary Economic Policy publishes scholarly economic research and analysis on issues of vital concern to business, government, and other decision makers. Leading western scholars, including three Nobel laureates, are among CEP"s authors. The objectives are to communicate results of high quality economic analysis to policymakers, focus high quality research and analysis on current policy issues of widespread concern, increase knowledge among economists of features of the economy key to understanding the impact of policy, and to advance methods of policy analysis.