Heterogeneity of shifts in economic expectations around elections

IF 1.9 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Contemporary Economic Policy Pub Date : 2026-04-03 Epub Date: 2025-07-22 DOI:10.1111/coep.70001

Paul Niekamp

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper uses the Survey of Consumer Expectations to study the effects of the 2016 and 2020 US elections on economic expectations. I find that Trump's 2016 election victory elicited broad-based improvements in US stock price and debt expectations, transcending the “winning team.” Aggregate expectations of a US debt level decrease more than doubled. While stronger for white individuals, improvements were distributed across demographics, including predicted Democrat voters, except black individuals. I find no evidence that Biden's 2020 election victory elicited improvements in expectations of the “winning team.” Aggregate stock market expectations decreased and individuals anticipated a higher unemployment rate.

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选举前后经济预期变化的异质性

本文使用消费者预期调查来研究2016年和2020年美国大选对经济预期的影响。我发现，特朗普在2016年大选中获胜，引发了美国股市和债务预期的广泛改善，超出了“获胜团队”的范畴。对美国债务水平下降的总体预期增加了一倍以上。虽然白人的表现更强，但除了黑人之外，其他人口统计数据也有所改善，包括预测的民主党选民。我没有发现任何证据表明，拜登在2020年大选中获胜，会提高人们对“获胜团队”的期望。股市总体预期下降，个人预期失业率上升。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Contemporary Economic Policy Multiple-

CiteScore

3.10

自引率

6.70%

发文量

期刊介绍： Contemporary Economic Policy publishes scholarly economic research and analysis on issues of vital concern to business, government, and other decision makers. Leading western scholars, including three Nobel laureates, are among CEP"s authors. The objectives are to communicate results of high quality economic analysis to policymakers, focus high quality research and analysis on current policy issues of widespread concern, increase knowledge among economists of features of the economy key to understanding the impact of policy, and to advance methods of policy analysis.