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Political Science Research and Methods最新文献

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The role of hyperparameters in machine learning models and how to tune them 超参数在机器学习模型中的作用以及如何调整超参数
IF 3.9 2区 社会学
Political Science Research and Methods Pub Date : 2024-02-05 DOI: 10.1017/psrm.2023.61
Christian Arnold, Luka Biedebach, Andreas Küpfer, Marcel Neunhoeffer
{"title":"The role of hyperparameters in machine learning models and how to tune them","authors":"Christian Arnold, Luka Biedebach, Andreas Küpfer, Marcel Neunhoeffer","doi":"10.1017/psrm.2023.61","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2023.61","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Hyperparameters critically influence how well machine learning models perform on unseen, out-of-sample data. Systematically comparing the performance of different hyperparameter settings will often go a long way in building confidence about a model's performance. However, analyzing 64 machine learning related manuscripts published in three leading political science journals (APSR, PA, and PSRM) between 2016 and 2021, we find that only 13 publications (20.31 percent) report the hyperparameters and also how they tuned them in either the paper or the appendix. We illustrate the dangers of cursory attention to model and tuning transparency in comparing machine learning models’ capability to predict electoral violence from tweets. The tuning of hyperparameters and their documentation should become a standard component of robustness checks for machine learning models.","PeriodicalId":47311,"journal":{"name":"Political Science Research and Methods","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2024-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139864387","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Coup-proofing: latent concept and measurement 防政变：潜在概念与测量
IF 3.9 2区 社会学
Political Science Research and Methods Pub Date : 2024-01-29 DOI: 10.1017/psrm.2023.63
Hwalmin Jin
{"title":"Coup-proofing: latent concept and measurement","authors":"Hwalmin Jin","doi":"10.1017/psrm.2023.63","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2023.63","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The study of coup-proofing holds significant importance in political science as it offers insights into critical topics such as military coups, authoritarian governance, and international conflicts. However, due to the multifaceted nature of coup-proofing and empirical inconsistencies with existing indicators, there is a need for a more profound understanding and a new measurement methodology. We propose a new measure of the extent of coup-proofing, utilizing a Bayesian item response theory. We estimate the extent of coup-proofing using a sample of 76 countries between 1965 and 2005 and theoretically relevant observed indicators. The findings from the estimation demonstrate that the extent of coup-proofing varies across regime type, country, and time. Furthermore, we verify the construct validity of our measurement.","PeriodicalId":47311,"journal":{"name":"Political Science Research and Methods","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2024-01-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140487237","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does support for redistribution mean what we think it means? 支持再分配的含义和我们想象的一样吗？
IF 3.9 2区 社会学
Political Science Research and Methods Pub Date : 2024-01-22 DOI: 10.1017/psrm.2023.57
Yotam Margalit, S. Raviv
{"title":"Does support for redistribution mean what we think it means?","authors":"Yotam Margalit, S. Raviv","doi":"10.1017/psrm.2023.57","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2023.57","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 When surveyed, clear majorities express concern about inequality and view the government as responsible for addressing it. Scholars often interpret this view as popular support for redistribution. We question this interpretation, contending that many people have little grasp of what reducing inequality actually entails, and that this disconnect masks important variation in preferences over concrete policies. Using original survey and experimental US data, we provide systematic evidence in line with these conjectures. Furthermore, when asked about more concrete redistributive measures, support for government action changes significantly and aligns more closely with people's self-interest. These findings have implications for how egalitarian policies can be effectively communicated to the public, as well as methodological implications for the study of preferences on redistribution.","PeriodicalId":47311,"journal":{"name":"Political Science Research and Methods","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2024-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139609569","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The population ecology of interest groups and counter-mobilization: reproductive rights organizations in the United States, 1920–1985 利益集团和反动员的人口生态学：1920-1985 年美国的生殖权利组织
IF 3.9 2区 社会学
Political Science Research and Methods Pub Date : 2024-01-19 DOI: 10.1017/psrm.2023.60
T. Hightower
{"title":"The population ecology of interest groups and counter-mobilization: reproductive rights organizations in the United States, 1920–1985","authors":"T. Hightower","doi":"10.1017/psrm.2023.60","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2023.60","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This research note builds upon a number of important articles published in a variety of outlets concerning the population ecology of interest groups. Importantly, Lowery and Gray (1995), Nownes (2004), and Nownes and Lipinski (2005) empirically demonstrated the dependence on the density of pre-existing, similar groups when predicting new group formations. In this letter, I add to this research by modeling the density of ideologically divergent reproductive rights groups as well as offer supporting evidence for the popular Energy-Stability-Area model. The former is a novel consideration in the field of population ecology which primarily examines ideologically similar groups. I show that density dependence is at play among these polarized groups. I also provide insight into counter-mobilization movements of group formation by empirically demonstrating which groups are initial movers versus reactionary formers. In doing so, I raise important questions for researchers concerned with the emergence, longevity, and impact of interest groups over long periods of time. Finally, this research provides some insight into the expectations of group formation behavior in light of the landmark Dobbs decision.","PeriodicalId":47311,"journal":{"name":"Political Science Research and Methods","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2024-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139612158","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Partisan communication in two-stage elections: the effect of primaries on intra-campaign positional shifts in congressional elections 两阶段选举中的党派沟通：初选对国会选举中竞选内部立场转变的影响
IF 3.9 2区 社会学
Political Science Research and Methods Pub Date : 2024-01-10 DOI: 10.1017/psrm.2023.62
Mike Cowburn, Marius Sältzer
{"title":"Partisan communication in two-stage elections: the effect of primaries on intra-campaign positional shifts in congressional elections","authors":"Mike Cowburn, Marius Sältzer","doi":"10.1017/psrm.2023.62","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2023.62","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The influence of congressional primary elections on candidate positioning remains disputed and poorly understood. We test whether candidates communicate artificially “extreme” positions during the nomination, as revealed by moderation following a primary defeat. We apply a scaling method based on candidates language on Twitter to estimate positions of 988 candidates in contested US House of Representatives primaries in 2020 over time, demonstrating validity against NOMINATE (r > 0.93) where possible. Losing Democratic candidates moderated significantly after their primary defeat, indicating strategic position-taking for perceived electoral benefit, where the nomination contest induced artificially “extreme” communication. We find no such effect among Republicans. These findings have implications for candidate strategy in two-stage elections and provide further evidence of elite partisan asymmetry.","PeriodicalId":47311,"journal":{"name":"Political Science Research and Methods","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2024-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139439056","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Election symbols and vote choice: evidence from India 选举标志与选票选择：印度的证据
IF 3.9 2区 社会学
Political Science Research and Methods Pub Date : 2024-01-04 DOI: 10.1017/psrm.2023.58
Alexander Lee, Weihong Qi
{"title":"Election symbols and vote choice: evidence from India","authors":"Alexander Lee, Weihong Qi","doi":"10.1017/psrm.2023.58","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2023.58","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 A large literature has shown that ballot order and ballot structure can influence vote choice. We focus on another behavioral cue for voting, the symbols that are assigned to candidates in many democracies. We take advantage of a naturally occurring experiment in India, where independent candidates can choose from a list of free symbols and conflicting choices are resolved by a drawing of lots. We find that winning the draw has a substantial positive effect on vote share. We also find some evidence that candidates attempt to choose their symbols strategically, for instance choosing household goods common in their constituencies.","PeriodicalId":47311,"journal":{"name":"Political Science Research and Methods","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2024-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139384862","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Local elections do not increase local news demand 地方选举不会增加地方新闻需求
IF 3.9 2区 社会学
Political Science Research and Methods Pub Date : 2023-12-20 DOI: 10.1017/psrm.2023.59
Joshua McCrain, Erik Peterson
{"title":"Local elections do not increase local news demand","authors":"Joshua McCrain, Erik Peterson","doi":"10.1017/psrm.2023.59","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2023.59","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Anemic demand for local news has contributed to an industry crisis. We consider whether local elections, which highlight the ability of local television stations and newspapers to provide information that is unavailable from national news outlets, increase local media use. While we show these elections are a time of increased attention to local politics in the news and among the public, we also find local media outlets do not benefit from this when considering behavioral news use measures. Relative to news outlets in cities without an election, local television remains substantively unchanged during local elections. Newspaper website traffic is largely stable, although it falls slightly the month after an election. In both cases these differences are small, even when considering close races and those happening off the federal election cycle. This shows limits on the ability of salient local political events to motivate local news use.","PeriodicalId":47311,"journal":{"name":"Political Science Research and Methods","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2023-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138958442","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The (in)effectiveness of populist rhetoric: a conjoint experiment of campaign messaging 民粹主义言论的（无效）效果：竞选信息的联合实验
IF 3.9 2区 社会学
Political Science Research and Methods Pub Date : 2023-11-23 DOI: 10.1017/psrm.2023.55
Yaoyao Dai, A. Kustov
{"title":"The (in)effectiveness of populist rhetoric: a conjoint experiment of campaign messaging","authors":"Yaoyao Dai, A. Kustov","doi":"10.1017/psrm.2023.55","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2023.55","url":null,"abstract":"Is populism electorally effective and, if so, why? Scholars agree that populism is a set of people-centric, anti-pluralist, and anti-elitist ideas that can be combined with various ideological positions. It is difficult, yet important, to disentangle populism from its hosting ideology in evaluating populism's effectiveness and its potential conditional effects on the hosting ideology. We conduct a novel US conjoint experiment asking respondents to evaluate pairs of realistic campaign messages with varying populism-related messages and hosting policy positions given by hypothetical primary candidates. Although party-congruent policy positions are expectedly much more popular, we find that none of the populist features have an independent or combined effect on candidate choice.","PeriodicalId":47311,"journal":{"name":"Political Science Research and Methods","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2023-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139243693","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The American public's attitudes over how judges use legal principles to make decisions 美国公众对法官如何利用法律原则做出判决的态度
IF 3.9 2区 社会学
Political Science Research and Methods Pub Date : 2023-11-17 DOI: 10.1017/psrm.2023.53
Albert H. Rivero, Andrew R. Stone
{"title":"The American public's attitudes over how judges use legal principles to make decisions","authors":"Albert H. Rivero, Andrew R. Stone","doi":"10.1017/psrm.2023.53","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2023.53","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the American public's attitudes over an integral component of judicial behavior: the legal principles judges employ when making decisions. Our theoretical perspective argues that political preferences shape individuals’ attitudes over how judges apply legal principles, mirroring ideological divisions expressed by political elites and judges. Using an original battery of questions, we find high support across all Americans for the use of certain, well-established legal principles, but stark differences in how liberals and conservatives evaluate the use of more controversial principles. In a survey experiment, we find that agreement (disagreement) between an individual's attitudes over the use of legal principles and the reasoning contained in a Supreme Court opinion is associated with increased (decreased) support for the Court decision.","PeriodicalId":47311,"journal":{"name":"Political Science Research and Methods","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2023-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139266125","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Evaluating methods for examining the relative persuasiveness of policy arguments 评估审查政策论据相对说服力的方法
IF 3.9 2区 社会学
Political Science Research and Methods Pub Date : 2023-11-17 DOI: 10.1017/psrm.2023.54
Jared McDonald, M. Hanmer
{"title":"Evaluating methods for examining the relative persuasiveness of policy arguments","authors":"Jared McDonald, M. Hanmer","doi":"10.1017/psrm.2023.54","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2023.54","url":null,"abstract":"Survey researchers testing the effectiveness of arguments for or against policies traditionally employ between-subjects designs. In doing so, they lose statistical power and the ability to precisely estimate public attitudes. We explore the efficacy of an approach often used to address these limitations: the repeated measures within-subjects (RMWS) design. This study tests the competing hypotheses that (1) the RMWS will yield smaller effects due to respondents' desire to maintain consistency (the “opinion anchor” hypothesis), and (2) the RMWS will yield larger effects because the researcher provides respondents with the opportunity to update their attitudes (the “opportunity to revise” hypothesis). Using two survey experiments, we find evidence for the opportunity to revise hypothesis, and discuss the implications for future survey research.","PeriodicalId":47311,"journal":{"name":"Political Science Research and Methods","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2023-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139265467","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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