Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters最新文献

{"title":"Interdecadal change and projection of the relationship between spring Arctic Oscillation and summer precipitation in the Yangtze River valley in CMIP6 models","authors":"Weikai Jia,&nbsp;Botao Zhou,&nbsp;Ziyi Song","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100481","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100481","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper assesses the performance of 20 CMIP6 models in simulating the relationship between spring Arctic Oscillation (AO) and summer precipitation in the Yangtze River valley (YRP) over the period 1980–2014. Their relationship during 2015–2100 under SSP2-4.5 is also projected. The assessment indicates that four models (ACCESS-ESM1-5, CMC-CM2-SR5, MRI-ESM2-0, and NorESM2-LM) can reasonably simulate the observed interdecadal weakening of the AO–YRP connection in the late 1990s. During 1980–1998, corresponding to the positive phase of spring AO, the East Asian jet (EAJ) shifts northward in summer, favoring descending anomalies over the Yangtze River valley. Meanwhile, the western Pacific subtropical high is weaker than normal and anomalous northeasterlies prevail in the lower troposphere of the Yangtze River valley, reducing the water vapor transport to the target region. These situations are unfavorable for the occurrence of precipitation, consequently resulting in a decrease in summer YRP. During 1999–2014, however, the association of the above atmospheric circulations with spring AO becomes insignificant, thus diluting the AO–YRP connection. The ensemble of the four models projects that the significant out-of-phase relationship between spring AO and summer YRP will recover in the near term (2015–2040) and weaken again afterwards. Such projected relationships are supported by the changes in the linkage of summer atmospheric circulations to spring AO.</p><p>摘要</p><p>评估了20个CMIP6模式对春季北极涛动 (AO) 与长江流域夏季降水 (YRP) 关系的模拟能力. 结果表明, 4个模式 (ACCESS-ESM1-5, CMC-CM2-SR5, MRI-ESM2-0, NorESM2-LM)) 能合理模拟出1990年代后期AO–YRP关系的减弱. 1980–1998年, 当春季AO位于正位相时, 夏季东亚急流北移, 长江流域为异常下沉运动, 同时西太平洋副热带高压减弱, 减少向长江流域的水汽输送, 结果导致降水减少. 1999–2014年, 上述大气环流与春季AO的联系不显著, 从而减弱AO–YRP的关系. 利用这四个模式进一步预估了RCP4.5情景下2015–2100年期间AO–YRP的关系. 两者在2015–2040年为显著负相关关系, 随后再次减弱.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"17 4","pages":"Article 100481"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674283424000291/pdfft?md5=e023632f64924303b3a2ebb3031a3ae4&pid=1-s2.0-S1674283424000291-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139966686","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Classification analysis of prediction skill among ensemble members in MJO subseasonal predictions—based on the results of the CAMS-CSM subseasonal prediction system","authors":"Yihao Peng ,&nbsp;Xiaolei Liu ,&nbsp;Jingzhi Su ,&nbsp;Xinli Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100469","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100469","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Given the inherent imperfections in models and the inevitability of initial condition errors, subseasonal prediction ability faces ongoing limitations. Most international numerical models employ ensemble forecasts to enhance the accuracy of subseasonal prediction. The prediction skill for the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), as a vital source of subseasonal predictability, depends on both model performance and the physical nature of the events. Based on the reforecast results of the CAMS-CSM subseasonal prediction system, the differences in MJO prediction skill among ensemble members are classified and compared together with the characteristics of different kinds of MJO events. In the category with generally high ensemble member prediction skill, MJO events often have extended durations, stronger intensities, and the intense convection primarily locates in the Indian Ocean, gradually shifting eastward to the western Pacific. In the category with mostly poor ensemble member prediction skill, the convection strength during MJO event propagation is weakest. In the category with mixed prediction skill among ensemble members, MJO events tend to have shorter durations and lower intensities, and the convection centers during subsequent propagation exhibit stationary characteristics over Maritime Continent regions.</p><p>摘要</p><p>由于模式误差和初始误差所致, 次季节-季节预报技巧整体偏低. 国际上多数模式都采用集合预报的方式来提高次季节预报的准确率. 热带大气季节内振荡 (MJO) 作为次季节尺度可预报性的重要来源, 其预测水平取决于模式性能和MJO事件本身的物理特性. 根据中国气象科学研究院气候系统模式次季节预测系统的回报结果, 结合不同类型MJO事件的特征, 对模式集合成员间的预报技巧进行了分类和比较. 在集合成员预报技巧普遍较高的一类MJO事件中, 对流异常信号持续时间较长, 强度较大, 强对流异常中心主要位于印度洋区域, 并逐渐东传至西太平洋. 在集合成员预报技巧多数较差的MJO事件中, 对流异常信号的强度最弱, 维持时间最短. 在集合成员预报技巧优劣参半的类别中, MJO往往持续时间较短, 强度较低, 在后续传播过程中, 对流异常中心多停驻在海洋性大陆区域.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"17 4","pages":"Article 100469"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674283424000175/pdfft?md5=483bb668c6e4bd58436242c49ba89d74&pid=1-s2.0-S1674283424000175-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139888857","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Interdecadal changes in the frequency of winter extreme cold events in North China during 1989–2021","authors":"Yali Zhu ,&nbsp;Fangwu Song ,&nbsp;Dong Guo","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100468","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100468","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>How extreme weather and climate events change is an intriguing issue under global warming. By investigating the frequency of extreme cold events (Frexces) in winter over North China (NC), this paper presents robust interdecadal changes in Frexces in NC since the late 1980s. Two shift points are detected at about 2003 and 2013 through a Mann–Kendall test. Three periods are then identified as 1989–2002 (P1), 2003–2012 (P2), and 2013–2021 (P3). Frexces increases from P1 to P2 and then decreases from P2 to P3. Correspondingly, the winter mean Siberian–Ural High (SUH), polar jet stream (PJS), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) show interdecadal changes. The winter SUH gets stronger and the PJS and NAO weaker during P2, while the SUH is weakened and the PJS and NAO strengthened in P3. The stronger SUH and weaker PJS is favourable for cold-air intrusion into NC in P2, and the opposite is true for the weaker SUH and stronger PJS in P1 and P3. The weaker NAO in P2 relates to long-distance wave propagation to Eurasia to strengthen the SUH, while wave activity accompanying the stronger NAO in P3 is confined to western Eurasia. For the all-extreme cold events composite, the area affected by the cold air inducing extreme cold events in NC enlarges northwestward to the West Siberian Plain, and the intensity of the cold air also gets strengthened from P1 to P3.</p><p>摘要</p><p>全球变暖背景下, 极端天气气候事件的变化受到关注. 本文研究发现, 1989–2021年期间, 华北地区极端冷日数在2003和2013年发生了年代际变化. 极端冷日数先增加后减少. 2003–2012年, 西伯利亚–乌拉尔高压偏强, 极地西风急流偏弱, 有利于冷空气南下入侵华北地区, 华北极端冷日数偏多. 而在1989–2002年和2013–2021年, 情况相反. 虽然三个时段华北极端冷日的强度没有显著差异, 但与其相联系的冷空气强度变得更强, 2013–2021年冷空气中心区域往西北扩张到了贝加尔湖以西地区.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"17 4","pages":"Article 100468"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674283424000163/pdfft?md5=329b7b6244ce9c5cd33a067344c19fed&pid=1-s2.0-S1674283424000163-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139892628","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Revisiting East Asian monsoon change during the Last Glacial Maximum using PMIP4 simulations","authors":"Zhiping Tian","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100467","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100467","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 000 years ago) East Asian monsoon was revisited using all available simulations performed by the latest generation of climate models participating in phase 4 of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4). With respect to the preindustrial period, all five models consistently showed a weakening of the East Asian monsoon by 1%–18% in winter and by 2%–32% in summer during that glacial period. Regionally, the LGM monsoon circulation was dominated by southerly wind anomalies in winter but northerly wind anomalies in summer over East Asia in AWI-ESM-1-1-LR, MIROC-ES2L, and MPI-ESM1-2-LR. In the two versions of CESM2, large regional differences existed in the LGM change in the East Asian monsoon, especially for summer. Such changes in the East Asian monsoon can be explained by the various geographical distributions of surface cooling and sea level pressure difference, mainly due to the large volume of ice sheets and lower atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations during the LGM. The spread among the models and the uncertainty among the proxy data call for further simulation and reconstruction efforts to comprehend the change in the East Asian monsoon during the glacial period.</p><p>摘要</p><p>利用PMIP4多模式试验数据, 本文重新检查了末次冰盛期 (距今约21 000年) 东亚季风变化. 结果表明: 相对于工业革命前期, 所有5个模式一致模拟显示末次冰盛期东亚季风减弱, 冬季和夏季减幅分别为1 %–18 %和2–32 %; 不同模式中东亚季风环流变化的空间分布存在差异, 这主要源于该时期大尺度变冷和海平面气压梯度变化的空间分布不同; 由于模式之间的差异和重建记录之间的不确定性, 未来有待开展更多模拟和重建工作以更好地理解冰期东亚季风变化.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"17 3","pages":"Article 100467"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674283424000151/pdfft?md5=4aeb28d73e9f96077acc8d8a881a19d3&pid=1-s2.0-S1674283424000151-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139631783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A rapid assessment of MWRI-RM/FY3G brightness temperature","authors":"Wenying He ,&nbsp;Xinran Xia ,&nbsp;Shengli Wu ,&nbsp;Peng Zhang ,&nbsp;Hongbin Chen ,&nbsp;Xiang'ao Xia ,&nbsp;Yuquan Zhou ,&nbsp;Miao Cai","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100466","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100466","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Microwave Radiation Imager for the Rainfall Mission (MWRI-RM) onboard the FengYun 3G satellite (FY3G), launched in April 2023, will provide massive brightness temperature (Tb) measurements at 17 frequencies from 10.65 GHz to 183 GHz. The operationally calibrated MWRI-RM Level 1B Tb data have been released since 23 October 2023. The MWRI-RM measurements are compared with the simultaneous measurements from the GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) to provide a first overview of the MWRI-RM measurement quality. A radiative transfer model (RTM) is performed for the double difference (DD) analysis. The results show that the Tbs of MWRI-RM are in good agreement with those of GMI, with mean bias error (MBE) and root-mean-square error (RMSE) values of less than 1 K for most channels. Larger differences are observed at the horizontal polarization of 36.5 and 89 GHz, with an RMSE of about 2 K. RTM simulations reflect that the Tb difference between MWRI-RM and GMI due to the different Earth incidence angle of the sensors is about 0.5 K over the sea. The DD analysis results suggest that MWRI-RM demonstrates quite similar performance to GMI for most channels, especially for the first used channels at 166 GHz and 183 GHz.</p><p>摘要</p><p>2023年4月发射的FY-3G上搭载17个频率的测雨微波成像仪 (MWRI-RM) , 其业务定标的微波亮温 (Tb) 数据于2023年10月23日公开发布. 本文比对了发布10天的MWRI-RM与全球降水测量 (GPM) 卫星上的微波成像仪 (GMI) 相匹配的Tb数据, 并借助辐射传输模式进行双差分 (DD) 交叉定标分析, 旨在快速评估新一代MWRI-RM观测数据质量. 观测比较表明, MWRI-RM 与 GMI测量的Tb一致性很好, 大多通道的平均偏差 (MBE) 和均方根误差 (RMSE) 均小于 1 K. 两种传感器由于观测角度略有不同在水面产生约 0.5 K差异. DD分析也展示出MWRI-RM的大多数通道性能与GMI相当接近, 尤其是首次启用的高频166 GHz和183 GHz.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"17 3","pages":"Article 100466"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S167428342400014X/pdfft?md5=243f51e79753901b8cc213d53ddd585e&pid=1-s2.0-S167428342400014X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139637655","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Interdecadal changes in the western Siberian summer mean and extreme rainfall during 1982–2021","authors":"Yali Zhu ,&nbsp;Fangwu Song ,&nbsp;Dong Guo","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100464","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100464","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Siberia, neighboring the Arctic Ocean, has a cold and dry climate. The famous Siberian forest, Taiga, has been greening in recent decades, mainly driven by climate factors. Besides the warming trend, summer rainfall is also critical for the vegetation variations there. This study finds that summer mean rainfall in western Siberia significantly increases after 1995 and decreases again slightly after 2012. The extreme rainfall shows similar interdecadal variations. Three periods are identified as 1982–1994 (P1), 1995–2011 (P2), and 2012–2021 (P3). The significant anomalous cyclone/anticyclone and water vapor convergence/divergence over western Siberia are responsible for the increased/decreased summer rainfall from P1 to P2/P2 to P3. All the extreme rainfall days show strong cyclonic anomalies in the lower level and a northwest–southeast-oriented anomalous cyclone–anticyclone dipole pattern in the upper level over western Siberia. The above anomalous circulation patterns are strongest during P2, when there are more extreme rainfall days with enhanced intensity. Distinct characteristics also exist in the developing processes of extreme rainfall events in the three periods.</p><p>摘要</p><p>本文研究发现, 西西伯利亚夏季降水在1995年后显著增加, 2012年后又有所减少, 极端降水日数和强度呈现一致的变化特征. 伴随这两次降水的年代际增加/减少, 西西伯利亚上空出现异常气旋/反气旋和水汽幅合/幅散. 极端降水发生时的区域环流特征在三个时段基本一致: 西西伯利亚低空出现气旋性异常, 高空为西北–东南向的异常气旋–反气旋偶极子型. 1995–2011年期间, 极端降水日数更多, 强度更强, 上述异常环流型也更强.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"17 3","pages":"Article 100464"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-01-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674283424000126/pdfft?md5=7bf5a7b9420f60d071dfecc8998173f0&pid=1-s2.0-S1674283424000126-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139456659","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comparison of ERA5 turbulent fluxes at the air–sea interface with measurements from a wave‐following platform","authors":"Saïd Benjeddou ,&nbsp;Denis Bourras ,&nbsp;Christopher Luneau","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100463","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100463","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Turbulent fluxes at the air–sea interface were estimated with data collected in 2011–2020 with a low‐profile platform named OCARINA during eight experiments in five regions: 2011, 2015, and 2016 in the Iroise Sea; 2012 in the tropical Atlantic; 2014 in the Chilie–Peru upwelling; 2017 and 2018 in the Mediterranean Sea, and 2018 and 2020 in Barbados. The observations were carried out with moderate winds (2–10 m s⁻¹) and average wave heights of 1.5 m. In this study, the authors used the fluxes calculated by the bulk method using OCARINA-sampled data as the input. These data can validate the fluxes estimated from ERA5 reanalysis data. The OCARINA and ERA5 data were taken concomitantly. To do this, the authors established an algorithm to extract the OCARINA data as closely as possible to the reanalysis data in time and position. The measurements of the OCARINA platform can conclude on the relevance of the widely used reanalysis data.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"17 3","pages":"Article 100463"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674283424000114/pdfft?md5=8fbddddfdd7470cf3a5688c7348ad258&pid=1-s2.0-S1674283424000114-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139454802","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Future changes in compound drought events and associated population and GDP exposure in China based on CMIP6","authors":"Rufan Xue ,&nbsp;Bo Sun ,&nbsp;Wanling Li ,&nbsp;Huixin Li ,&nbsp;Botao Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100461","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100461","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Compound drought events, in which several types of drought occur at the same time, usually causes more harm to human society than just one type of drought event on its own. In this study, skill scoring methods are used to evaluate models, and then several drought indices are calculated to characterize meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts, separately. Finally, the projected future changes in compound drought events, and associated population and GDP exposure to them, are further studied based on CMIP6. The results show that the frequency of compound drought events is likely to increase in northern Northwest China, Southwest China, and South China, but decrease in North and Northeast China. The projected changes in duration and severity are similar to those of frequency, i.e., mainly increasing in a few parts of northern Northwest and South China, but decreasing in Northeast and North China. The population exposure to compound drought events is expected to increase greatly in the area south of the Yangtze River Basin, slightly in Northwest China, and decrease greatly in the northeast of the Yangtze River Basin. Both climate and population have important effects on the change in population exposure. Due to the expected rapid growth in GDP, the exposure of GDP to compound drought events in almost all regions of China is projected to increase in the future, especially in eastern China, and the relative contribution of the GDP effect to the change in GDP exposure will be the largest.</p><p>摘要</p><p>相较于一种类型的干旱, 几种类型的干旱同时发生的复合型干旱事件对人类社会造成的危害更加严重. 本研究采用CMIP6资料, 研究中国复合型干旱事件及其相关社会经济暴露度的未来变化. 结果表明, 西北北部, 西南和华南地区复合型干旱事件频次, 持续时间和严重程度增加, 而华北和东北地区则减少. 复合型干旱事件的人口暴露度在长江流域南部大幅增加, 在长江流域以北的东部大幅减少, 其中气候和人口均对人口暴露度的变化有重要影响. 由于GDP的快速增长, 中国未来几乎所有地区复合型干旱事件的GDP暴露度增加, 特别是在中国东部, GDP效应对GDP暴露度变化的相对贡献最大.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"17 3","pages":"Article 100461"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674283424000096/pdfft?md5=9dcfdb1c0e503119300655cc43bb7da5&pid=1-s2.0-S1674283424000096-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139393022","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Anthropogenic influence on the extreme drought in eastern China in 2022 and its future risk","authors":"Yinjun Zhang,&nbsp;Lin Chen,&nbsp;Yuqing Li,&nbsp;Zi-An Ge","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2023.100390","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2023.100390","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In July–August 2022, eastern China was hit by an extreme drought event characterized by extraordinarily long persistence. The authors selected the minimum accumulated precipitation during a consecutive seven-week period during July–August (Rx49day) as the criterion to capture persistent drought extremes. Quantified by Rx49day, the 2022 drought extreme was 57.5% dryer than the climatology, and estimated as a 1-in-73-year event based on a statistical analysis. Utilizing the DAMIP (Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project) runs, the study shows that anthropogenic forcing increases the occurrence probability of a 2022Drought-like event by 56%. This change is probably associated with the change in mean state over eastern China, including decreased moisture and weakened upward motion. Further, three GHG emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) were employed to investigate how the risk of a 2022Drought-like event will change under global warming. The projected results show that such an event is 92% less likely to occur under the low-emissions scenario, which is related to the increased background moisture and enhanced upward motion. In sharp contrast, the high-emissions scenario simulations projected an increased occurrence probability that is 79% higher than the present-day climate, probably caused by the strengthened background descending motion. The results indicate a nonlinear change in 2022Drought-like events in response to a warmer world. It is hoped that this work will provide useful information for policymakers in developing strategies that prevent eastern China from experiencing similar natural disasters.</p><p>摘要</p><p>2022年夏季中国东部地区遭遇了一次持续性极端高温干旱事件. 本文利用CMIP6检测归因比较计划 (DAMIP) 数据, 量化了人为强迫对类2022年极端干旱事件发生概率的影响, 并基于未来不同增暖情景试验给出了此类极端干旱事件的未来变化预估. 通过分析不同外强迫因子作用下此类极端干旱事件的发生概率变化, 发现人为强迫使此类极端干旱事件的发生概率提高约56%, 这主要与人为强迫下中国东部平均水汽减少和平均上升运动减弱有关. 进一步通过分析此类极端干旱事件对不同温室气体排放情景 (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) 的响应, 发现在低排放情景下类2022年极端干旱事件的发生概率较当今气候显著下降, 这主要与中国东部平均水汽的增加和平均环流的变化有关, 而在高排放情景 (SSP5-8.5) 下, 此类极端干旱事件的发生概率较当今气候增加约79%, 这主要与高排放情景下平均下沉运动增强有关. 该研究表明, 人为强迫通过调制气候平均背景场从而引起极端事件发生频次的变化是人类活动影响极端气候事件的重要途径之一, 极端干旱事件对温室气体排放量的响应可能是非线性的.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"17 1","pages":"Article 100390"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674283423000764/pdfft?md5=da40af88fbe8dcd49d69047b5bc3773e&pid=1-s2.0-S1674283423000764-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135983145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comparison between ozonesonde measurements and satellite retrievals over Beijing, China","authors":"Jinqiang Zhang ,&nbsp;Yuejian Xuan ,&nbsp;Jianchun Bian ,&nbsp;Holger Vömel ,&nbsp;Yunshu Zeng ,&nbsp;Zhixuan Bai ,&nbsp;Dan Li ,&nbsp;Hongbin Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2023.100378","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2023.100378","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The authors built an electrochemical concentration cell ozonesonde and have been launching it weekly from Beijing on the North China Plain since 2013. This study is the first to use ozonesonde measurements collected over Beijing during 2013–2019 to evaluate vertical ozone profiles derived from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) onboard the Aqua satellite and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) onboard the Aura satellite. The total column ozone calculated from the ozonesonde measurements is also compared with retrievals from AIRS and the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) onboard the Aura platform. Overall, the ozonesonde measurements and satellite retrievals show similar variability in the ozone profiles (with a relative difference mostly &lt; 10%), albeit with a relatively large discrepancy arising at certain levels. The total column ozone derived from the three instruments shows reasonable agreement and similar annual variation. The annual average total column ozone is 351.8 ± 18.4 DU, 348.8 ± 19.5 DU, and 336.9 ± 14.2 DU for the ozonesonde, AIRS, and OMI, respectively. Further comparative analysis of ozonesonde data collected in the future from multiple sites in China will improve the understanding of their consistency with satellite retrievals over different regions in China.</p><p>摘要</p><p>从2013年开始, 作者团队使用自主研发电化学原理臭氧探空仪在华北平原北京地区进行每周一次观测. 本研究首次使用2013–2019年期间北京地区臭氧探空数据评估Aqua卫星搭载大气红外探测仪 (AIRS) 和Aura卫星搭载微波临边探测器 (MLS) 反演垂直臭氧廓线, 并对比臭氧探空, AIRS和Aura卫星搭载臭氧监测仪 (OMI) 臭氧柱总量结果. 尽管臭氧探空与卫星反演垂直臭氧廓线在局部高度处差异较大, 但整体来说两者较为接近 (相对偏差大多&lt;10%). 臭氧探空, AIRS和OMI三种仪器测量臭氧柱总量的年变化特征较为一致, 其年均臭氧柱总量分别为351.8 ± 18.4 DU, 348.8 ± 19.5 DU和336.9 ± 14.2 DU. 后续对国内多站点观测数据分析将有助于进一步理解臭氧探空与卫星反演臭氧资料在不同区域的一致性.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"17 1","pages":"Article 100378"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674283423000648/pdfft?md5=704864fa5b020533d8ff71b3e83afdd7&pid=1-s2.0-S1674283423000648-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48336408","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}