Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters最新文献

{"title":"Projected changes in extreme snowfall events over the Tibetan Plateau based on a set of RCM simulations","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2023.100446","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2023.100446","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Extreme snowfall events over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) cause considerable damage to local society and natural ecosystems. In this study, the authors investigate the projected changes in such events over the TP and its surrounding areas based on an ensemble of a set of 21st century climate change projections using a regional climate model, RegCM4. The model is driven by five CMIP5 global climate models at a grid spacing of 25 km, under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 pathways. Four modified ETCCDI extreme indices—namely, SNOWTOT, S1mm, S10mm, and Sx5day—are employed to characterize the extreme snowfall events. RegCM4 generally reproduces the spatial distribution of the indices over the region, although with a tendency of overestimation. For the projected changes, a general decrease in SNOWTOT is found over most of the TP, with greater magnitude and better cross-simulation agreement over the eastern part. All the simulations project an overall decrease in S1mm, ranging from a 25% decrease in the west and to a 50% decrease in the east of the TP. Both S10mm and Sx5day are projected to decrease over the eastern part and increase over the central and western parts of the TP. Notably, S10mm shows a marked increase (more than double) with high cross-simulation agreement over the central TP. Significant increases in all four indices are found over the Tarim and Qaidam basins, and northwestern China north of the TP. The projected changes show topographic dependence over the TP in the latitudinal direction, and tend to decrease/increase in low-/high-altitude areas.</p><p>摘要</p><p>基于RegCM4区域气候模式的气候变化预估试验数据, 开展了青藏高原及其周边地区极端降雪事件的未来变化研究. 结果表明, 总降雪量在高原大部分地区呈减少趋势, 降雪日数在高原也将明显减少, 尤其是在东部. 大雪日数和五日最大降雪量在高原东部将减少, 而在中部和西部明显增加. 在高原周边的塔里木和柴达木盆地及中国西北地区, 极端降雪事件同样增加显著. 极端降雪事件在高原上呈现出东西方向上的地形依赖性, 在低/高海拔地区呈减少/增加趋势.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"17 5","pages":"Article 100446"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674283423001459/pdfft?md5=0f9d88b01fcd624760a099c0666f3808&pid=1-s2.0-S1674283423001459-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139302808","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Research progress on the water vapor channel within the Yarlung Zsangbo Grand Canyon, China","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100462","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100462","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program tasked a research team with the “Investigation of the water vapor channel of the Yarlung Zsangbo Grand Canyon (INVC)” in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP). This paper summarizes the scientific achievements obtained from the data collected by the INVC observation network and highlights the progress in investigating the development of heavy rainfall events associated with water vapor changes. The rain gauge network of the INVC can represent the impacts of the Yarlung Zsangbo Grand Canyon (YGC) topography on precipitation at the hourly scale. The microphysical characteristics of the precipitation in the YGC are different than those in the lowland area. The GPM-IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement) satellite precipitation data for the YGC region should be calibrated before they are used. The meridional water vapor flux through the YGC is more important than the zonal flux for the precipitation over the southeastern TP. The decreased precipitation around the YGC region is partly due to the decreased meridional water vapor flux passing through the YGC. High-resolution numerical models can benefit precipitation forecasting in this region by using a combination of specific schemes that capture the valley wind and water vapor flux along the valley floor.</p><p>摘要</p><p>第二次青藏高原科学考察研究在青藏高原东南部组建了雅鲁藏布大峡谷水汽通道科学考察分队, 本文主要总结了该科考分队近几年开展的观测研究以及利用该分队建立的观测网收集的观测数据所取得的科学成果, 重点介绍了与大峡谷水汽输送相关的强降雨过程的研究进展; 研究主要发现科考分队在大峡谷建立的雨量筒观测网可以代表该地区地形对小时降水量的空间影响; 藏东南降水的微物理特征与低海拔地区有明显差异; GPM卫星降水数据在大峡谷地区存在干偏差的问题, 使用前需进行校准; 穿越大峡谷的经向水汽输送对青藏高原东南部的降水有重要影响, 大峡谷周边区域降水量的减少可能是由于穿越大峡谷经向水汽通量的减少造成; 使用特定云降水方案的高分辨率数值模型可以较好的捕捉大峡谷内的风场和水汽输送时, 该模型能对该地区夜间强降水做出准确预报.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"17 5","pages":"Article 100462"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674283424000102/pdfft?md5=eafc877f376f6713edcfbb4d393eee74&pid=1-s2.0-S1674283424000102-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139455693","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Variation in the surface heat flux on the north and south slopes of Mount Qomolangma","authors":"Yonghao Jiang ,&nbsp;Maoshan Li ,&nbsp;Yuchen Liu ,&nbsp;Ting Wang ,&nbsp;Pei Xu ,&nbsp;Yaoming Ma ,&nbsp;Fanglin Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100513","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100513","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The distinctive conditions present on the north and south slopes of Mount Qomolangma, along with the intricate variations in the underlying surfaces, result in notable variations in the surface energy flux patterns of the two slopes. In this paper, data from TESEBS (Topographical Enhanced Surface Energy Balance System), remote sensing data from eight cloud-free scenarios, and observational data from nine stations are utilized to examine the fluctuations in the surface heat flux on both slopes. The inclusion of MCD43A3 satellite data enhances the surface albedo, contributing to more accurate simulation outcomes. The model results are validated using observational data. The RMSEs of the net radiation, ground heat, sensible heat, and latent heat flux are 40.73, 17.09, 33.26, and 30.91 W m⁻², respectively. The net radiation flux is greater on the south slope and exhibits a rapid decline from summer to autumn. Due to the influence of the monsoon, on the north slope, the maximum sensible heat flux occurs in the pre-monsoon period in summer and the maximum latent heat flux occurs during the monsoon. The south slope experiences the highest latent heat flux in summer. The dominant flux on the north slope is sensible heat, while it is latent heat on the south slope. The seasonal variations in the ground heat flux are more pronounced on the south slope than on the north slope. Except in summer, the ground heat flux on the north slope surpasses that on the south slope.</p><p>摘要</p><p>珠穆朗玛峰南北坡独特的地形条件和复杂的下垫面, 导致了南北坡地表通量分布的显著差异. 本文利用地形增强地表能量平衡模式 (Topographical Enhanced Surface Energy Balance System (TESEBS)), 遥感数据和站点观测数据, 对季风和非季风期南北坡的地表热通量变化进行了研究. 首先, 把MCD43A3卫星数据加入TESEBS, 改进了地表反照率, 使模拟结果更准确. 受季风影响, 北坡季风期感热通量最大值出现在季风前期, 潜热通量最大值出现在季风期. 南坡季风期潜热通量最大. 全年北坡以感热交换为主, 南坡以潜热交换为主. 土壤热通量的季节变化在南坡比北坡更明显.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"17 5","pages":"Article 100513"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S167428342400062X/pdfft?md5=55246a9b274532fc324f6ce1bb0a7c75&pid=1-s2.0-S167428342400062X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142161545","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"GF-4 high-resolution texture and FY-4A multispectral data fusion: Two case studies for enhancing early convective cloud detection","authors":"Yang Gao,&nbsp;Xin Wang,&nbsp;Jun Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100551","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100551","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Early detection of convective clouds is vital for minimizing hazardous impacts. Forecasting convective initiation (CI) using current multispectral geostationary meteorological satellites is often challenged by high false-alarm rates and missed detections caused by limited resolution. In contrast, high-resolution earth observation satellites offer more detailed texture information, improving early detection capabilities. The authors propose a novel methodology that integrates the advanced features of China's latest-generation satellites, Gaofen-4 (GF-4) and Fengyun-4A (FY-4A). This fusion method retains GF's high-resolution details and FY-4A's multispectral information. Two cases from different observational scenarios and weather conditions under GF-4's staring mode were carried out to compare the CI forecast results based on fused data and solely on FY-4A data. The fused data demonstrated superior performance in detecting smaller-scale convective clouds, enabling earlier forecasting with a lead time of 15–30 minutes, and more accurate location identification. Integrating high-resolution earth observation satellites into early convective cloud detection provides valuable insights for forecasters and decision-makers, particularly given the current resolution limitations of geostationary meteorological satellites.</div><div>摘要</div><div>对流云的早期探测对于降低天气致灾风险至关重要. 当前静止气象卫星受其分辨率的限制, 在预测对流初生 (CI) 时仍存在较高的虚警率和漏报率. 对比而言, 高分辨率的地球观测卫星能够提供更丰富的纹理细节, 有助于提升对流云早期探测的能力. 作者提出了一种创新性的方法, 融合GF-4的高分辨率细节和FY-4A的多光谱信息, 以优化对流云的早期识别和预测. 通过对GF-4凝视模式下两种不同天气条件和观测场景的案例分析, 融合数据在探测更小尺度的对流云方面具有明显优势, 一定程度解决漏报难题, 另一方面能够将对流初生的可探测时间提前, 更精确表现对流爆发位置和更准确刻画对流发展过程. 在当前静止气象卫星分辨率受限的条件下, 这种高分辨率地球观测卫星数据的融合应用能够为气象预报员和决策者提供更有价值的观测视角.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"18 4","pages":"Article 100551"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144169719","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Interdecadal variability of summer precipitation in the Three River Source Region: Influences of SST and zonal shifts of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet","authors":"Yumeng Liu ,&nbsp;Xianhong Meng ,&nbsp;Lin Zhao ,&nbsp;S.-Y. Simon Wang ,&nbsp;Lixia Zhang ,&nbsp;Zhaoguo Li ,&nbsp;Chan Wang ,&nbsp;Yingying An","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100538","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100538","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Summer precipitation in the Three Rivers Source Region (TRSR) of China is vital for the headwaters of the Yellow, Yangtze, and Lancang rivers and exhibits significant interdecadal variability. This study investigates the influence of the East Asian westerly jet (EAWJ) on TRSR rainfall. A strong correlation is found between TRSR summer precipitation and the Jet Zonal Position Index (JZPI) of the EAWJ from 1961 to 2019 (<em>R</em> = 0.619, <em>p</em> &lt; 0.01). During periods when a positive JZPI indicates a westward shift in the EAWJ, enhanced water vapor anomalies, warmer air, and low-level convergence anomalies contribute to increased TRSR summer precipitation. Using empirical orthogonal function and regression analyses, this research identifies the influence of large-scale circulation anomalies associated with the Atlantic–Eurasian teleconnection (AEA) from the North Atlantic (NA). The interdecadal variability between the NA and central tropical Pacific (CTP) significantly affects TRSR precipitation. This influence is mediated through the AEA via a Rossby wave train extending eastward along the EAWJ, and another south of 45°N. Moreover, the NA–CTP Opposite Phase Index (OPI), which quantifies the difference between the summer mean sea surface temperatures of the NA and the CTP, is identified as a critical factor in modulating the strength of this teleconnection and influencing the zonal position of the EAWJ.</p><p>摘要</p><p>本研究探讨了年代际东亚西风急流的纬向移动对黄河, 长江和澜沧江源头—三江源区夏季降水的影响. 研究发现, 在1961–2019年间, 三江源区夏季降水量与急流纬向位置指数 (JZPI) 在年代际尺度上存在强正相关 (R=0.619, p&lt;0.01) . 当JZPI呈正值, 也就是东亚西风急流向西移动时, 增强的水汽, 温暖的气流和低层辐合异常有助于三江源区夏季降水增加. 北大西洋与中太平洋之间的年代际变化对三江源区的降水有着显著的影响, 主要以北大西洋–欧亚遥相关 (AEA) 方式, 通过沿东亚西风急流向东延伸的罗斯贝波列, 以及45°N以南的另一波列来影响三江源区的降水. 进一步分析发现, 北大西洋与中太平洋反向相位指数 (OPI) 作为一个关键因素, 可量化北大西洋与中太平洋之间夏季平均海表温度的差异, 调控该遥相关的强度并影响急流的纬向位置.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"17 5","pages":"Article 100538"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674283424000874/pdfft?md5=910f4a8135a00150d333cde44ed9dc4c&pid=1-s2.0-S1674283424000874-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142162280","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Prediction of net primary productivity in the middle-to-high latitudes of Eurasia based on snow and soil temperature","authors":"Hong Wu ,&nbsp;Miao Yu ,&nbsp;Yue Sun ,&nbsp;Guirong Tan ,&nbsp;Zhenming Ji","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100535","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100535","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Net primary productivity (NPP) is the net accumulation of organic matter by vegetation through photosynthesis and serves as a key indicator for exploring vegetation responses to climate change. Considering the remote and local impacts of soil heat capacities on vegetation growth through pathways of atmospheric circulation and land–atmosphere interaction, this paper develops a statistical prediction model for NPP from April to June (AMJ) across the middle-to-high latitudes of Eurasia. The model introduces two physically meaningful predictors: the snow water equivalent (SWE) from February to March (FM) over central Europe and the FM local soil temperature (ST). The positive phase of FM SWE triggers anomalous eastward-propagating Rossby waves, leading to an anomalous low-pressure system and cooling in the middle-to-high latitudes of Eurasia. This effect persists into spring through snow feedback to the atmosphere and affects subsequent NPP changes. The ST is closely related to the AMJ temperature and precipitation. With positive ST anomalies, the AMJ temperature and precipitation exhibit an east–west dipole anomaly distribution in this region. The single-factor prediction scheme using ST as the predictor is much better than using SWE as the predictor. Independent validation results from 2009 to 2014 demonstrate that the ST scheme alone has good predictive performance for the spatial distribution and interannual variability of NPP. The predictive skills of the multi-factor prediction schemes can be improved by about 13 % if the ST predictor is included. The findings confirm that local ST is a predictor that must be included for NPP prediction.</div><div>摘要</div><div>净初级生产力 (NPP) 是植被通过光合作用积累机物质的净效益, 是探索植被对气候变化响应的关键指标. 考虑到陆面热力异常通过陆气相互作用和大尺度环流对植被生长的影响, 本文研制了欧亚中高纬地区4–6月NPP预测模型. 该模型引入了两个具有明确物理意义的预测因子: 欧洲中部2–3月的雪水当量 (SWE) 和2–3月局地土壤温度 (ST). SWE的正异常会触发异常东传的Rossby波, 导致下游出现位势高度负异常并引起降温. 通过雪和温度的正反馈, 这种异常低温持续到春季并使得NPP下降. ST与随后季节的温度和降水密切相关, 当ST出现正异常时, 该地区的4–6月温度和降水呈现出东西向偶极子异常分布.对比各方案的预测效果发现, ST比SWE有更好的预测能力. 2009–2014年独立后报结果显示, ST方案对NPP的空间分布和年际变率都有很好的预测效果. 交叉检验的结果显示, 多因子方案中引入ST后能提高模型13 %的预测技巧.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"18 4","pages":"Article 100535"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-06-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141401306","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Projection of extreme climate change in the Asian arid region and the Tibetan Plateau in the early and middle 21st century based on NEX-GDDP-CMIP6","authors":"Yankun Sun ,&nbsp;Rui Zhu ,&nbsp;Tao Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100534","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100534","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the context of global warming, it is anticipated that both the intensity and the frequency of future global extreme high precipitation (EHP) and extreme high temperature (EHT) events will increase. To evaluate the future extreme climate changes in the Asian arid region and Tibetan Plateau, this study applied the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) to assess the changes in EHP (Rx5d and R95pTOT) and EHT (TX90p and TXx) under different emission scenarios in the 21st century. Findings suggest that both the frequency and the intensity of the extreme indices will increase, exhibiting accelerated growth under higher emission scenarios, particularly under the SSP5-8.5 emission scenario. It is suggested that the growth of EHT and EHP in the early subperiod of the 21st century (2026–2045) will be relatively moderate, with small differences between different emission scenarios. However, by the middle subperiod of the 21st century (2041–2060), the differences between different emission scenarios will become larger than the 2035s and the growth will become more intense. In western central Asia, TX90p, TXx, Rx5d, and R95pTOT increase by 9.7%–14.2% (13.3%–24.7%), 1.3°C–1.7°C (1.6°C–2.7°C), 6.5%–8.9% (8.2%–8.8%), and 18.1%–27.0% (25.6%–30.0%) by the early (middle) subperiod; in eastern central Asia, TX90p, TXx, Rx5d, and R95pTOT increase 8.1%–12.0% (11.3%–21.1%), 1.4°C–1.8°C (1.9°C–2.9°C), 7.4%–9.7% (10.4%–13.8%), and 20.2%–29.3% (32.0%–40.8%) by the early (middle) subperiod; and over the Tibetan Plateau, TX90p, TXx, Rx5d, and R95pTOT increase 12.5%–17.4% (17.0%–31.0%), 1.2°C–1.5°C (1.6°C–2.5°C), 7.2%–10.0% (9.9%–15.0%), and 26.6%–33.1% (36.1%–55.3%) by the early (middle) subperiod.</div><div>摘要</div><div>近年来, 随着全球变暖, 大部分地区极端气候事件的风险都有所增加. 作为中国一带一路建设核心区域的亚洲干旱区和青藏高原区域面临着严峻的极端气候风险. 本文利用NEX-GDDP-CMIP6数据预估了未来21世纪早期 (2026–2045) 和中期 (2041–2060) 不同排放情景下亚洲干旱区和青藏高原相较气候参考期 (1995–2014) 极端高温指数和极端降水指数的变化. 预估结果显示, 在不同排放情景下极端高温指数和极端降水指数都有所上升, 且在SSP5-8.5情景下增长最多, 其中NEX-GDDP-CMIP6不同模式对极端高温指数的模拟一致性高于极端降水指数. 21世纪中期相比早期极端高温指数和极端降水指数的增长更加严重.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"18 3","pages":"Article 100534"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141398743","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluation of the simulation performance of WRF-Solar for a summer month in China using ground observation network data","authors":"Xin Yue ,&nbsp;Xiao Tang ,&nbsp;Bo Hu ,&nbsp;Keyi Chen ,&nbsp;Qizhong Wu ,&nbsp;Lei Kong ,&nbsp;Huangjian Wu ,&nbsp;Zifa Wang ,&nbsp;Jiang Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100532","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100532","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Solar energy is a pivotal clean energy source in the transition to carbon neutrality from fossil fuels. However, the intermittent and stochastic characteristics of solar radiation pose challenges for accurate simulation and prediction. Accurately simulating and predicting solar radiation and its variability are crucial for optimizing solar energy utilization. This study conducted simulation experiments using the WRF-Solar model from 25 June to 25 July 2022, to evaluate the accuracy and performance of the simulated solar radiation across China. The simulations covered the whole country with a grid spacing of 27 km and were compared with ground observation network data from the Chinese Ecosystem Research Network. The results indicated that WRF-Solar can accurately capture the spatiotemporal patterns of global horizontal irradiance over China, but there is still an overestimation of solar radiation, and the model underestimates the total cloud cover. The root-mean-square error ranged from 92.83 to 188.13 <span><math><mrow><mrow><mi>W</mi><mspace></mspace></mrow><msup><mrow><mi>m</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>−</mo><mn>2</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></math></span> and the mean bias (MB) ranged from 21.05 to 56.22 <span><math><mrow><mrow><mi>W</mi><mspace></mspace></mrow><msup><mrow><mi>m</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>−</mo><mn>2</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></math></span>. The simulation showed the smallest MB at Lhasa on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, while the largest MB was observed in Southeast China. To enhance the accuracy of solar radiation simulation, the authors compared the Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar with the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for General Circulation Models and found that the former provides better simulation.</div><div>摘要</div><div>准确模拟和预测太阳辐射及其变化对于优化太阳能利用至关重要. 本研究使用WRF-Solar模式对中国2022 年 6 月 25 日至 7 月 25 日的太阳辐射情况进行了深入模拟, 模式网格水平分辨率为27 km, 通过与中国生态系统研究网络 (CERN) 的地面观测网络数据的37个观测站点进行对比, 以评估模式性能. 结果表明: WRF-Solar模式能较好地捕捉到中国上空的辐照度GHI (Global Horizontal Irradiance) 的时空分布特征, 但存在高估太阳辐射量, 以及低估总云量的情况. 全国的总辐射模拟均方根误差范围为92.83–188.13 W m⁻², 平均偏差范围为21.05–56.22 W m⁻². 青藏高原拉萨站的偏差最小, 在中国东南部的偏差最大. 为了进一步提升太阳辐射模拟的精确度, 本研究还对比了FARMS与RRTMG辐射方案, 发现FARMS方案的模拟精度更高.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"18 4","pages":"Article 100532"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141394617","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The asymmetry of air temperature: A new potential method to predict precipitation frequency","authors":"Yinan Xie,&nbsp;Fenghua Xie","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100531","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100531","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>There is a significant bias in the precipitation frequency (PF) obtained from numerical model simulations. In this study, the authors use the temperature asymmetry (TA) as an indirect indicator to predict PF. The empirical orthogonal function method is used to analyze the spatiotemporal correlation of TA and PF at interannual and interdecadal time scales. Furthermore, the authors explore using the TA to improve PF prediction in CMIP6 models. Results show that (1) on an interannual time scale, PF and TA show good spatial and temporal correlations; (2) PF and TA exhibit similar modal transitions on interdecadal time scales; and (3) using TA as an indirect indicator can significantly improve the prediction of PF. The TA may be an indirect method for improving precipitation predictions.</div><div>摘要</div><div>在数值模拟中日降水频率具有明显的偏差. 利用EOF方法, 分析了在年际和年代际尺度上降水频率与气温的非对称性的时空相关特征, 并探索使用非对称性改进模式降水频率预测的方法. 得到以下结论: 1) 在年际尺度上, 降水频率和气温的非对称的前两个模态的空间和时间相关系数良好; 2) 在年代际尺度上两者展现出相似的模态转变; 3) 非对称性作为降水频率的间接指标可以明显的改进降水频率的预测.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"18 4","pages":"Article 100531"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141401487","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Analyzing uncertainty and constraining projections for future vegetation in mid-to-high-latitude Asia","authors":"Jiangfeng Wei ,&nbsp;Ye Pu ,&nbsp;Xiaocong Liu ,&nbsp;Yufeng Shan ,&nbsp;Botao Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100522","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100522","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mid-to-high-latitude Asia (MHA) is one of the regions most impacted by global warming and is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change on its ecosystems. The future vegetation changes in this region are still uncertain, warranting a comprehensive investigation. In this study, the authors conducted a comparative analysis of leaf area index (LAI) projections by models in phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6, respectively) under high emission scenarios (RCP8.5 and SSP5–8.5, respectively). It was found that the CMIP6 models offer greater consistency with historical observations and demonstrate reduced prediction uncertainty compared to the CMIP5 models. There are strong linear relationships between the historical and future vegetation characteristics among the CMIP6 models, which enables a constrained projection of future vegetation based on historical vegetation observations. The model projections suggest a prospective overall increase in the mean, interannual variability, and seasonal amplitude of LAI in the MHA region in the future period (2061–2100) in comparison to the historical period (1985–2014). These results underscore the imperative need to enhance the understanding of ecosystem responses to climate extremes in this region.</div><div>摘要</div><div>亚洲中高纬地区是受全球变暖影响最严重的地区之一, 其生态系统高度受到气候变化的影响. 然而, 该地区未来植被变化仍不确定, 需要进行全面调查. 在这项研究中, 作者比较分析了耦合模式比较计划第五和第六阶段 (CMIP5和CMIP6) 中高排放情景 (分别为RCP8.5和SSP5–8.5) 下的叶面积指数 (LAI) 预测. 分析发现, CMIP6模式的LAI结果与历史观测数据更为一致, 并且相比CMIP5模式表现出更小的预测不确定性. CMIP6模式的历史和未来植被特征之间具有强线性关系, 这使得基于历史植被观测进行未来植被预测成为可能. 预测表明, 未来 (2061–2100年) 与历史时期 (1985–2014年) 相比, 亚洲中高纬度地区LAI的平均值, 年际变率和季节振幅将整体增加. 研究结果强调了提高对该地区生态系统应对气候极端事件的理解的重要性.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"18 3","pages":"Article 100522"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141280053","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}