A study on the simulation of carbon and water fluxes of Dangxiong alpine meadow and its response to climate change

IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The alpine meadow ecosystem accounts for 27 % of the total area of the Tibetan Plateau and is also one of the most important vegetation types. The Dangxiong alpine meadow ecosystem, located in the south-central part of the Tibetan Plateau, is a typical example. To understand the carbon and water fluxes, water use efficiency (WUE), and their responses to future climate change for the alpine meadow ecosystem in the Dangxiong area, two parameter estimation methods, the Model-independent Parameter Estimation (PEST) and the Dynamic Dimensions Search (DDS), were used to optimize the Biome-BGC model. Then, the gross primary productivity (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET) were simulated. The results show that the DDS parameter calibration method has a better performance. The annual GPP and ET show an increasing trend, while the WUE shows a decreasing trend. Meanwhile, ET and GPP reach their peaks in July and August, respectively, and WUE shows a “dual-peak” pattern, reaching peaks in May and November. Furthermore, according to the simulation results for the next nearly 100 years, the ensemble average GPP and ET exhibit a significant increasing trend, and the growth rate under the SSP5–8.5 scenario is greater than that under the SSP2–4.5 scenario. WUE shows an increasing trend under the SSP2–4.5 scenario and a significant increasing trend under the SSP5–8.5 scenario. This study has important scientific significance for carbon and water cycle prediction and vegetation ecological protection on the Tibetan Plateau.

摘要

全球气候变化对青藏高原生态系统产生了深远影响, 暖湿化背景下青藏高原植被碳, 水通量变化趋势值得关注. 高寒草甸是青藏高原最主要的植被类型之一, 为理解青藏高原当雄地区高寒草甸生态系统碳, 水通量, 水分利用效率及其对未来气候变化的响应, 本研究利用PEST和DDS两种参数率定方法优化Biome-BGC模型, 进而模拟2000–2019年当雄站的总初级生产力 (GPP) 和蒸散量 (ET) . 研究结果表明: DDS参数率定方法具有更优的性能. GPP和ET在研究时段内呈上升趋势, 而水分利用效率 (WUE) 则呈下降趋势. 同时, ET和GPP分别在7月和8月达到峰值, 而WUE则呈“双峰”变化, 分别于5月和11月达到峰值. 此外, 未来近百年的模拟表明GPP和ET的集合平均结果呈显著增加趋势, 其中在SSP5–8.5情景下的增速大于SSP2–4.5情景. WUE在SSP2–4.5情景下呈增加趋势, 而在SSP5–8.5情景下呈显著增加趋势. 本研究结果可为青藏高原碳, 水循环预测研究和植被生态保护的应用研究提供参考和借鉴.

当雄高寒草甸碳通量和水通量模拟及其对气候变化的响应研究
高寒草甸生态系统占青藏高原总面积的 27%,也是最重要的植被类型之一。位于青藏高原中南部的当雄高寒草甸生态系统就是一个典型的例子。为了解当雄地区高寒草甸生态系统的碳通量、水通量、水分利用效率(WUE)及其对未来气候变化的响应,研究人员采用了两种参数估计方法,即独立于模型的参数估计法(PEST)和动态维度搜索法(DDS),对Biome-BGC模型进行了优化。然后,模拟了总初级生产力(GPP)和蒸散量(ET)。结果表明,DDS 参数校准方法具有更好的性能。年总初级生产力(GPP)和蒸散发(ET)呈上升趋势,而水分利用效率(WUE)呈下降趋势。同时,蒸散发和 GPP 分别在 7 月和 8 月达到峰值,而 WUE 则呈现 "双峰 "模式,在 5 月和 11 月达到峰值。此外,根据未来近 100 年的模拟结果,集合平均 GPP 和蒸散发均呈显著增长趋势,且 SSP5-8.5 情景下的增长率大于 SSP2-4.5 情景下的增长率。WUE 在 SSP2-4.5 情景下呈上升趋势,在 SSP5-8.5 情景下呈显著上升趋势。该研究对青藏高原碳循环、水循环预测和植被生态保护具有重要的科学意义。摘要全球气候变化对青藏高原生态系统产生了深远影响, 暖湿化背景下青藏高原植被碳、水通量变化趋势值得关注。高寒草甸是青藏高原最主要的植被类型之一, 为理解青藏高原当雄地区高寒草甸生态系统碳, 水通量, 水分利用效率及其对未来气候变化的响应, 本研究利用PEST和DDS两种参数率定方法优化Biome-BGC模型, 进而模拟2000-2019年当雄站的总初级生产力 (GPP) 和蒸散量 (ET) .研究结果表明:dds参数率定方法具有更优的性能。gpp和et在研究时段内呈上升趋势, 而水分利用效率 (wue) 则呈下降趋势。同时,et 和 gpp 分别在 7 月和 8 月达到峰值, 而 wue 则呈 "双峰 "变化, 分别于 5 月和 11 月达到峰值。此外, 未来近百年的模拟表明gpp和et的集合平均结果呈显著增加趋势, 其中在ssp5-8.5情景下的增速大于ssp2-4.5情景。wue在ssp2-4.5情景下呈显著增加趋势, 而在ssp5-8.5情景下呈显著增加趋势。本研究结果可为青藏高原碳、水循环预测研究和植被生态保护的应用研究提供参考和借鉴。
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来源期刊
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-
CiteScore
4.20
自引率
8.70%
发文量
925
审稿时长
12 weeks
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