Journal of Post Keynesian Economics最新文献

{"title":"An estimation of the Italian banking sector profit rate in a crisis period","authors":"Riccardo Zolea","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2024.2309373","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2024.2309373","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper an attempt is made to calculate the profit rate of the banking sector in the period following the 2007–2008 financial crisis, in order to compare it with that of other real productive...","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140005401","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sectoral dynamics of industrial policy in a two-sector economy: the case of Korea’s heavy and chemical industry (HCI) promotion (1973–1979)","authors":"Joseph Chul-kyoo Jung","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2023.2284394","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2023.2284394","url":null,"abstract":"This study explores the impact of state’s industrial policy on sectoral capacity utilization and growth in total output in the context of the Korea’s Heavy and Chemical Industry (HCI) promotion (19...","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139020432","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Austrian vs Post Keynesian explanations of the business cycle: an empirical examination","authors":"John T. Harvey, Khanh Pham","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2023.2284763","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2023.2284763","url":null,"abstract":"Neoclassical economists posted many mea culpas after they completely missed the Financial Crisis of 2008. Some heterodox schools of thought, however, claimed to have seen it coming. Among these wer...","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":"56 7-8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138512548","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Labor cost, competitiveness, and imbalances within the eurozone","authors":"Loïck Tange","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2023.2286485","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2023.2286485","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the impact of the cost of labor on macroeconomic imbalances within the eurozone. For this purpose, we construct a three-country Stock-Flow Consistent (SFC) macroeconomic model i...","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":"59 9-10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138512541","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The temporal dimensions of policy responses to capital surges","authors":"Chokri Zehri, Latifa Saleh Iben Ammar, Wissem Ajili Ben Youssef, Fatma Zehri","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2023.2275573","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2023.2275573","url":null,"abstract":"AbstractWe demonstrate that country-specific conditions and policies that can help manage the risks of excessive capital flows behave differently over time. Employing instrumental variable quantile regression estimates, our empirical methodology scrutinizes the projected distribution of portfolio inflows to emerging markets after an adverse international financial shock. This method enables us to differentiate the efficacy of policies and country-specific conditions in both the short and medium term. In the wake of a negative shock, our findings indicate that implementing more stringent capital controls is likely detrimental. In contrast, foreign exchange interventions and macroprudential policies prove beneficial in mitigating the risks associated with excessive inflows in the short and medium term. Notably, monetary policy cannot insulate economies from the risks of substantial capital inflows in the short or medium term. Furthermore, while institutional quality does not influence the risks in the short term, it can potentially reduce them in the medium term. We underscore the intertemporal tradeoffs associated with these policies, highlighting an aspect not considered in previous studies, which predominantly focused on the short-term impact.Keywords: Policy interventioncountry-specific conditionsfinancial shocks Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Data availability statementData available on request due to privacy/ethical restrictions.Notes1 The short term refers to a period of two quarters, and the meduim term to eight quarters.2 We build on Ben Zeev (Citation2017) by assuming identical quarterly values equal to the corresponding annual values to transform annual capital control data into quarterly frequency. This assumption is strong, particularly for capital control indexes for which Fernández et al. (Citation2016) argue that these controls vary little over a year, have low standard deviations, and are highly acyclical in nature.3 Chinn and Ito (Citation2008) and Fernández et al. (Citation2016) indices capture “intensity” in the sense of how comprehensively capital flows are restricted. Besides, aggregate indices of capital controls may reflect a form of intensity of restrictions on capital movements across borders. For instance, Fernández et al. (Citation2016) show that an aggregate index of controls on capital inflows captures the evolution of actual tax rates on capital inflows in the emblematic case of Brazil in the late 2000s. Then, our conclusion continues to hold although that Chinn and Ito (Citation2008) and Fernández et al. (Citation2016) are ‘de jure’ indices.Additional informationFundingThis study is supported via funding from Prince Sattam bin Abdulaziz University project number [PSAU/2023/R/1444].","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":"52 19","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136281923","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comparative economic analysis vs moralistic tales: an application to the myth of frugality","authors":"Juan Rafael Ruiz","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2023.2279555","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2023.2279555","url":null,"abstract":"AbstractIn 2020 the European Union designed a stimulus programme aimed at supporting Member States’ economic recovery following the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. Several countries were reluctant to endorse the programme rejecting the idea of fiscal expansion as a means of cushioning the impact of the health crisis. They dubbed themselves ‘the frugals’, a term extensively used in media coverage from then on. The narrative of thrifty versus profligate economies has been a leitmotiv in policy negotiations at the EU level despite the fact that no economic school of thought defines macroeconomic characteristics in terms of frugality or wastefulness. In this paper we analyze to what extent the economic behavior of European countries can be characterized along those lines by assessing observable economic indicators related to public and private indebtedness, fiscal income and spending, characteristics of the welfare state, the labor market and contributions to economic growth from internal and external demand. We draw from three main theoretical approaches in order to choose meaningful indicators for comparing different economic structures.Keywords: Comparative economicsEuropean Unionfrugalsmediterranean countrieswelfare state Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 For more details on the characteristics of NGEU see Freier et al. (Citation2022).2 For a detailed analysis of the evolution of these paradigms, see Cárdenas, Herrero, and Rial (Citation2020).3 Member States' operating budgetary balances are calculated using data on the allocation of EU expenditure by Member State and on Member States' contributions to the EU Budget. The operating budgetary balance of each Member State is calculated as the difference between the operating expenditure (excluding administration) allocated to each Member State and the adjusted 'national contribution' of each Member State as follows: OBBi=: TAEi−: H5i−: TNCi·TAEEU−H5EUTNCEU. Where: OBBi = operating budgetary balance of Member State, TAEi = total allocated expenditure of Member State, H5i = administrative expenditure allocated to Member State, TNCi = total national contribution of Member State.4 Italy is the only Southern country to maintain a positive contribution in the period under analysis.5 The euro crisis also dubbed the “European debt crisis” refers to the period comprised between 2009 and 2010, when interest rates for public debt rose sharply for Southern countries in a context of financial fragility, bank bailouts and speculative positions looking to take advantage of the institutional hurdles in the EU.6 This feature applies to Spain, Portugal and Greece, but not Italy.7 During the last decades, the reforms of the welfare state have not focused solely on spending. There are voices pressing to modify its physiognomy by implementing a model closer to that of the US, replaceing universal rights with mean-tested benefits, shifting welfare production fro","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":"52 14","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136281926","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Aggregate demand uncertainty outbreaks and employment hysteresis in G7 countries","authors":"Paulo R. Mota","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2023.2268090","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2023.2268090","url":null,"abstract":"AbstractThe slow recovery following the recent financial crisis in many developed countries, and the predictable long lasting economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have raised a new interest on the topic of employment hysteresis. In the presence of hysteresis there is no predetermined long-run equilibrium level of aggregate employment. As the economic system is not self-adjusting toward a unique equilibrium, timely, and sustained expansionary macroeconomic policies should be applied to mitigate the impact of negative shocks. The purpose of this paper is to uncover hysteresis effects in the macrodynamics of employment along with variations in its intensity that may result from outbreaks in aggregate demand uncertainty. We estimate a switching employment equation based on the play model of hysteresis, which describes a dynamic process whereby non-convex adjustment costs and uncertainty create intervals of weak reaction of employment to small changes in forcing variables, but spurts in the reaction to large demand shocks. As a novel feature, the estimation allows the presence of structural breaks in the value of the switching parameter of the employment equation due to aggregate demand uncertainty outbreaks. We have concluded that hysteresis effects increased in general in crisis periods associated to outbreaks of uncertainty in aggregate demand.Keywords: Employmenthysteresisuncertaintystructural breaksJEL CLASSIFICATION CODES: E24J23 Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 Local input extrema that are not followed by an absolute extrema (see, e.g., Cross et al. Citation2005).2 Therefore, hysteresis should not be confused with the presence of a unit root in a linear dynamic system, or zero root in continuous time difference equations (see Amable et al. Citation1993, Citation1994). The consequence is that non-stationary econometrics cannot be used to overcome the role of uncertainty and to make predictions about the future on the basis of past data. This issue has been put forward by Davidson (Citation1993) concerning the adequacy of the concept of hysteresis in the context of post Keynesian economics.3 For example, uncertainty about the course of technical progress, the future behavior of prices, the outcome of plan of investment, not to mention the effects of natural and political cataclysms with economic impact (Robinson Citation1974, 1).4 The possibility that the firms have to adjust labor input along the intensive margin, i.e., fluctuations in hours worked per employee, may also enhance the employment hysteresis effects (Mota, Varejão, and Vasconcelos Citation2012).5 The importance of the initial conditions and path dependence as drivers of the outcome of economic system was early recognized by Robinson (Citation1974).6 See also Rios, Rachinskii, and Cross (Citation2017).7 This is perfectly compatible with the concept of hysteresis. In fact “…hysteresis involves explicit structural change in","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135729611","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The past is only prologue – not the future: response to my critics","authors":"Donald W. Katzner","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2023.2268061","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2023.2268061","url":null,"abstract":"AbstractThis is my response to criticisms of my paper \"The Problem with Probability\" (JPKE, 2023, n. 3) given by Dequech, Cantillo, and Skillman and Veneziani (also appearing in JPKE 2023, n. 3). The main issues discussed concern the possibility of having knowledge of the future and empirical testing of decision-making models.Keywords: Knowledge of the futuredecision making AcknowledgmentThe author thanks Daniel L. Gordon for his help.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 The two other kinds of knowledge are (1) ‘acquaintance knowledge’ obtained by being acquainted with other people or things and (2) ‘knowledge how’ or knowledge of how to do something.2 Of course, a fact is usually defined as something known to be true.3 However, that impossibility can be refuted if it can be conclusively demonstrated that what is impossible actually has been or can be done.4 Panic behavior may be defined as a large increase in buying or selling that occurs in anticipation of a specific event or the occurrence of an unexpected one.Additional informationNotes on contributorsDonald W. KatznerDonald W. Katzner is at Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts/Amherst, Amherst, MA, USA.","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135993936","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The role of money and financial institutions in Kalecki and Keynes","authors":"Noemi Levy-Orlik","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2023.2246444","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2023.2246444","url":null,"abstract":"AbstractNumerous discussions on money and financial institutions have been advanced both between and within economic theories. Heterodox schools of thought consider money to be non-neutral, with causality running from money demand to money supply and the interest rate as a monetary and distributive variable. In this paper we discuss the views of Michał Kalecki and John Maynard Keynes on money and the operation of financial institutions. Kalecki and Keynes formulated the theory of effective demand, specifically in terms of its effects on economic growth and financial instability. Nonetheless, in line with the work of Tracy Mott, we argue that Kalecki’s analyses of the financial system are more profound because they better capture the complexity of the oligopolistic financial system, providing the foundations for Keynes’ liquidity preference theory. As a result, it may be concluded that the main problem of economic growth and investment spending is the structure of corporate finance.Keywords: KaleckiKeynesmoneyfinancial institutionsJEL Codes: E11E12E41E44 Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 In a letter to Ralph George Hawtrey, Keynes stated his understanding of the classical school to mean “not merely Ricardo and Mill, but also Marshall, Pigou and Henderson and myself until quite recently and, in fact every teacher of the subject in this country.” He did not include Hawtrey and Friedrich Hayek whom he considered “neo-classical'” (letter to Hawtrey, 15 April 1936, CW XIV, p. 24). Despite their awareness of the prominence afforded to monetary aspects of economics, Keynes contended that these scholars tended to endorse classical conclusions on matters of monetary policy (though taking a more eclectic approach on other policy issues), Tily Citation2007, footnote 2, p, 10.2 Keynes argued that “the ordinary Budget should be balanced at all times. It is the capital budget which should fluctuate with the demand for employment” (CW, XXVII p. 225), adding that ”the very reason that capital expenditure is capable of paying for itself makes it much better budgetwise and does not involve the progressive increase of budgetary difficulties” (CW, XXVII p 320), concluding that “if, for one reason or another, the volume of planned investment fails to produce equilibrium, the lack of balance would be met by unbalancing one way or the other the current Budget” (CW, XXVII p. 352).3 Keynes’ view of monetary policy and its effects on interest rate and finance changed radically as a result of his visit to the United States. This argument is summarized in the Chicago papers, for further references see Minsky Citation1989.4 According to Chick (Citation1983) the revolving fund is completely different from the theory of loanable funds. In the former there is a process of ongoing liquidity issuance and payment involving different borrowers, while in the latter credit issued to one borrower needs to be repaid by the same ag","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":"89 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135902174","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An analysis of UK swap yields","authors":"Tanweer Akram, Khawaja Mamun","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2023.2242348","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2023.2242348","url":null,"abstract":"AbstractJohn Maynard Keynes argued that the central bank influences the long-term interest rate through the effect of its policy rate on the current short-term interest rate. However, Keynes’s claim was confined to the behavior of the long-term government bond yield. This paper investigates whether Keynes’s claim holds for the yields of spread products and over-the-counter financial derivatives by econometrically modeling the dynamics of the pound sterling (GBP)–denominated long-term interest rate swap yield. It uses the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity modeling approach to examine the relationship between the month-over-month change in the current short-term interest rate and the month-over-month change in the long-term swap yield, while controlling for several key macroeconomic and financial variables. The month-over-month change in the current short-term interest rate has a positive and statistically significant effect on the month-over-month change in the long-term swap yield. This finding reinforces and extends Keynes’s conjecture concerning the central bank’s influence over the long-term interest rate. The investigation’s empirical findings and their policy implications are discussed from a Keynesian perspective.Keywords: Interest rate swapsswap yieldsinterest ratesBank of EnglandJohn Maynard KeynesJEL Classifications: E43E50E58E60G10G12 AcknowledgementThe authors thank participants at various workshops, the editor, the guest editors of the special issue in honor of late Professor Tracy Mott and the two anonymous referees for their invaluable comments. They also thank Ms. Elizabeth Dunn for her copyediting support. This paper was presented at the 1st annual Professor Tracy Mott Economic Theory and Policy Workshop at the University of Denver in Denver, Colorado (September 23–24, 2022). An earlier version of the paper was a published in the Levy Institute’s working paper series. The authors’ institutional affiliations are provided solely for identification purposes. Views expressed are merely those of the authors.Disclosure statementThe standard disclaimer holds.Data availability statementThe dataset used in the empirical part of this paper is available upon request to bona fide researchers for the replication and verification of the results.Notes1 However, it must be said that during the sterling crisis of 2022, when both the short-term interest rate and the long-term gilt yield rose while the GBP depreciated, the swap yields rose (Luhnow, Thomas, and Colchester Citation2022). Clearly the effect of a higher short-term interest rate on the swap yield dominated over the GBP’s deprecation.2 Although the sum is slightly higher than one (1) for 2-year swap rates.3 Results are available upon request.Additional informationFundingThis research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.Notes on contributorsTanweer AkramTanweer Akram is a Senior Vice President","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135902304","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}