The past is only prologue – not the future: response to my critics

Abstract

AbstractThis is my response to criticisms of my paper "The Problem with Probability" (JPKE, 2023, n. 3) given by Dequech, Cantillo, and Skillman and Veneziani (also appearing in JPKE 2023, n. 3). The main issues discussed concern the possibility of having knowledge of the future and empirical testing of decision-making models.Keywords: Knowledge of the futuredecision making AcknowledgmentThe author thanks Daniel L. Gordon for his help.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 The two other kinds of knowledge are (1) ‘acquaintance knowledge’ obtained by being acquainted with other people or things and (2) ‘knowledge how’ or knowledge of how to do something.2 Of course, a fact is usually defined as something known to be true.3 However, that impossibility can be refuted if it can be conclusively demonstrated that what is impossible actually has been or can be done.4 Panic behavior may be defined as a large increase in buying or selling that occurs in anticipation of a specific event or the occurrence of an unexpected one.Additional informationNotes on contributorsDonald W. KatznerDonald W. Katzner is at Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts/Amherst, Amherst, MA, USA.