Journal of Post Keynesian Economics最新文献

{"title":"The past is only prologue – not the future: response to my critics","authors":"Donald W. Katzner","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2023.2268061","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2023.2268061","url":null,"abstract":"AbstractThis is my response to criticisms of my paper \"The Problem with Probability\" (JPKE, 2023, n. 3) given by Dequech, Cantillo, and Skillman and Veneziani (also appearing in JPKE 2023, n. 3). The main issues discussed concern the possibility of having knowledge of the future and empirical testing of decision-making models.Keywords: Knowledge of the futuredecision making AcknowledgmentThe author thanks Daniel L. Gordon for his help.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 The two other kinds of knowledge are (1) ‘acquaintance knowledge’ obtained by being acquainted with other people or things and (2) ‘knowledge how’ or knowledge of how to do something.2 Of course, a fact is usually defined as something known to be true.3 However, that impossibility can be refuted if it can be conclusively demonstrated that what is impossible actually has been or can be done.4 Panic behavior may be defined as a large increase in buying or selling that occurs in anticipation of a specific event or the occurrence of an unexpected one.Additional informationNotes on contributorsDonald W. KatznerDonald W. Katzner is at Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts/Amherst, Amherst, MA, USA.","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135993936","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The role of money and financial institutions in Kalecki and Keynes","authors":"Noemi Levy-Orlik","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2023.2246444","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2023.2246444","url":null,"abstract":"AbstractNumerous discussions on money and financial institutions have been advanced both between and within economic theories. Heterodox schools of thought consider money to be non-neutral, with causality running from money demand to money supply and the interest rate as a monetary and distributive variable. In this paper we discuss the views of Michał Kalecki and John Maynard Keynes on money and the operation of financial institutions. Kalecki and Keynes formulated the theory of effective demand, specifically in terms of its effects on economic growth and financial instability. Nonetheless, in line with the work of Tracy Mott, we argue that Kalecki’s analyses of the financial system are more profound because they better capture the complexity of the oligopolistic financial system, providing the foundations for Keynes’ liquidity preference theory. As a result, it may be concluded that the main problem of economic growth and investment spending is the structure of corporate finance.Keywords: KaleckiKeynesmoneyfinancial institutionsJEL Codes: E11E12E41E44 Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 In a letter to Ralph George Hawtrey, Keynes stated his understanding of the classical school to mean “not merely Ricardo and Mill, but also Marshall, Pigou and Henderson and myself until quite recently and, in fact every teacher of the subject in this country.” He did not include Hawtrey and Friedrich Hayek whom he considered “neo-classical'” (letter to Hawtrey, 15 April 1936, CW XIV, p. 24). Despite their awareness of the prominence afforded to monetary aspects of economics, Keynes contended that these scholars tended to endorse classical conclusions on matters of monetary policy (though taking a more eclectic approach on other policy issues), Tily Citation2007, footnote 2, p, 10.2 Keynes argued that “the ordinary Budget should be balanced at all times. It is the capital budget which should fluctuate with the demand for employment” (CW, XXVII p. 225), adding that ”the very reason that capital expenditure is capable of paying for itself makes it much better budgetwise and does not involve the progressive increase of budgetary difficulties” (CW, XXVII p 320), concluding that “if, for one reason or another, the volume of planned investment fails to produce equilibrium, the lack of balance would be met by unbalancing one way or the other the current Budget” (CW, XXVII p. 352).3 Keynes’ view of monetary policy and its effects on interest rate and finance changed radically as a result of his visit to the United States. This argument is summarized in the Chicago papers, for further references see Minsky Citation1989.4 According to Chick (Citation1983) the revolving fund is completely different from the theory of loanable funds. In the former there is a process of ongoing liquidity issuance and payment involving different borrowers, while in the latter credit issued to one borrower needs to be repaid by the same ag","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135902174","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An analysis of UK swap yields","authors":"Tanweer Akram, Khawaja Mamun","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2023.2242348","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2023.2242348","url":null,"abstract":"AbstractJohn Maynard Keynes argued that the central bank influences the long-term interest rate through the effect of its policy rate on the current short-term interest rate. However, Keynes’s claim was confined to the behavior of the long-term government bond yield. This paper investigates whether Keynes’s claim holds for the yields of spread products and over-the-counter financial derivatives by econometrically modeling the dynamics of the pound sterling (GBP)–denominated long-term interest rate swap yield. It uses the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity modeling approach to examine the relationship between the month-over-month change in the current short-term interest rate and the month-over-month change in the long-term swap yield, while controlling for several key macroeconomic and financial variables. The month-over-month change in the current short-term interest rate has a positive and statistically significant effect on the month-over-month change in the long-term swap yield. This finding reinforces and extends Keynes’s conjecture concerning the central bank’s influence over the long-term interest rate. The investigation’s empirical findings and their policy implications are discussed from a Keynesian perspective.Keywords: Interest rate swapsswap yieldsinterest ratesBank of EnglandJohn Maynard KeynesJEL Classifications: E43E50E58E60G10G12 AcknowledgementThe authors thank participants at various workshops, the editor, the guest editors of the special issue in honor of late Professor Tracy Mott and the two anonymous referees for their invaluable comments. They also thank Ms. Elizabeth Dunn for her copyediting support. This paper was presented at the 1st annual Professor Tracy Mott Economic Theory and Policy Workshop at the University of Denver in Denver, Colorado (September 23–24, 2022). An earlier version of the paper was a published in the Levy Institute’s working paper series. The authors’ institutional affiliations are provided solely for identification purposes. Views expressed are merely those of the authors.Disclosure statementThe standard disclaimer holds.Data availability statementThe dataset used in the empirical part of this paper is available upon request to bona fide researchers for the replication and verification of the results.Notes1 However, it must be said that during the sterling crisis of 2022, when both the short-term interest rate and the long-term gilt yield rose while the GBP depreciated, the swap yields rose (Luhnow, Thomas, and Colchester Citation2022). Clearly the effect of a higher short-term interest rate on the swap yield dominated over the GBP’s deprecation.2 Although the sum is slightly higher than one (1) for 2-year swap rates.3 Results are available upon request.Additional informationFundingThis research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.Notes on contributorsTanweer AkramTanweer Akram is a Senior Vice President","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135902304","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Inflation and distribution during the post-COVID recovery: a Kaleckian approach","authors":"Mark Setterfield","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2023.2249431","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2023.2249431","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The early stages of recovery from the recession induced by the COVID-19 pandemic were accompanied by a marked increase in inflation in the US and elsewhere. Much has been made of this outcome, and the economic distress associated with it, in popular discussion of the economy. This paper provides a Kaleckian conflicting-claims analysis of inflation during the post-COVID recovery, that distinguishes between rising wages, pandemic-related supply shocks, and corporate price-setting behavior as sources of inflationary pressure. A key conclusion that arises from the co-determination of inflation and distributional outcomes in the Kaleckian framework is that distributional developments that have further disadvantaged working households, rather than inflation per se, are the chief source of recent economic distress – and should be the chief cause for concern among policy makers.","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135902170","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Post-Keynesian liquidity preference theory four decades later: a reexamination","authors":"L. Randall Wray","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2023.2242332","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2023.2242332","url":null,"abstract":"AbstractTracy Mott was best known as a scholar of the work of Michal Kalecki, but he also made an important contribution to Keynesian liquidity preference theory. In 1983 Tom Asimakopulos generated a firestorm in the Post Keynesian community with a series of articles claiming that while Keynes’s argument is that investment creates an equivalent amount of saving, this is true only ex post, after the multiplier has fully operated. Meantime, lack of savings could inhibit investment as the supply of bonds for long-term finance would exceed the supply of savings, driving up interest rates. Several Post Keynesians vociferously responded in defense of Keynes. Mott’s contribution to the debate approached the subject from a perspective that was more heavily influenced by Kalecki, Robinson, and Marx. Not only does the outcome of this debate impact our view of investment finance, but it also has implications for our view of financing government deficits. In this piece, I look back at Mott’s contribution to our understanding of liquidity preference, taking account of developments in Post Keynesian thought over the past four decades. The two most obvious and relevant are the endogenous money approach and Modern Money Theory.Keywords: Tracy Mottliquidity preferenceAsimakopulosMMTsaving and investment Notes1 Note that I will follow typical Post Keynesian practice in using the term “savings” to refer to a stock, and “saving” to refer to a flow.2 As it happened, Tom Asimakopulos had been one of my mentor’s (John Henry) professors and we met up at several of the Post Keynesian summer schools—first at Trieste and then in Knoxville. Tom was hurt by the reaction to his articles and believed that none of the critics really understood the point he was making. After many discussions, I was never clear on his interpretation of the critiques.3 See Snippe (Citation1985), Terzi (Citation1986), Davidson (Citation1986), Wray (Citation1988), and Kregel (Citation1984, Citation1986, Citation1988) for early critiques, Asimakopulos (Citation1985, Citation1986a, Citation1986b) for some of his responses, Sardoni (Citation2019 and Citation2020) for a recent defense, and Lavoie and Zezza (Citation2020) for a response to Sardoni. I will focus on Mott’s contributions.4 That is, “m” is the marginal propensity to buy bonds out of savings, presumed to be less than one. See Davidson (Citation1978).5 Note also that the investment project and sale of bonds can be completed before “equilibrium” as defined by Asimakopulos to mean full operation of the multiplier, if, for example, inventories have not been fully replaced in the consumption sector.6 Quoted in Kregel Citation2019; equating saving (ex ante or ex post) with finance is a category error. See his chapter for further discussion of this point.7 This follows from the Kalecki profit equation: a reduction of the budget deficit and an increase of a current account deficit reduce profit flows and make it difficult to service debt.8 See Wray (","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135902298","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Tracy Mott’s understanding of Kalecki’s economics","authors":"Jan Toporowski","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2023.2242327","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2023.2242327","url":null,"abstract":"Following his death in 1970, interest in Kalecki’s economics has come to be confined to Post-Keynesian circles and discussions of political economy. In general, these have provided partial accounts of Kalecki’s ideas, to supplement gaps in the theories of Keynes, Marx and their followers. Tracy Mott’s work departs from this by placing Kalecki’s economic theories around their foundation point in the financing of capitalist business. This provides a more systematic approach to Kalecki’s account of capitalism. It also points to a monetary interpretation of Kalecki’s Principle of Increasing Risk that was central to Mott’s understanding of Kalecki’s economics and an original interpretation of debt structures.","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135902180","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Introduction for the special issue for Tracy Mott","authors":"Yavuz Yaşar, Mark B. Lautzenheiser","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2023.2268616","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2023.2268616","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135902182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Editors’ Corner","authors":"Jan Kregel","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2023.2269058","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2023.2269058","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135902181","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Government spending with increasing risk: sovereign debt, liquidity preference, and the fiscal-monetary nexus","authors":"Nina Eichacker","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2023.2268095","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2023.2268095","url":null,"abstract":"AbstractDuring financial and economic crises, government expenditure is a potential source of liquidity and replacement for private demand; this expenditure, in turn, generates more deposits and spending in the economy at large, potentially increasing the endogenous supply of money and overall liquidity in a given economy. Governments may also require liquidity support during crises, if bond market activity constrains access to funding. This paper introduces government activity to Mott’s elaboration of Kalecki’s theory of increasing risk, and its implications for endogenous money creation, especially during periods of heightened liquidity preference. Some governments are likely to face greater obstacles in providing liquidity and accessing funding in times of economic uncertainty, whether due to their issuance of a non-sovereign currency, their position in the global currency hierarchy, or both, while others may find their ability to provide liquidity is bolstered by popular perceptions of their credit worthiness. Recent crises illustrate the importance of understanding the monetary and financial factors that may constrain governments’ abilities to fund deficits, especially given the importance of fiscal expenditure as a stabilizing economic force, or as a potential driver of development.Keywords: RiskliquidityPost Keynesianendogenous moneyfiscal policy AcknowledgementsI gratefully acknowledge feedback from two anonymous reviewers, participants in the Analytical Political Economy Workshop in May 2021, participants at the Inaugural Tracy Mott Workshop at the University of Denver, in September 2022, and panel participants at the Money as a Democratic Medium conference in June 2023. I accept all responsibility for any remaining errors in the text.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 Examples include the central banks of Canada, the United States, the UK, Japan, the Eurozone, India, Korea, the Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia, Hungary, Israel, Poland, Romania, South Africa, Turkey, Mexico, Brazil, Chile, and Colombia (Cantú et al. Citation2021).2 Bell (Citation2000) notes that in the US, if the US government’s Treasury Department uses Treasury Deposit accounts for purchases and sale of bonds, total money in circulation may not be affected, because those institutions are not required to maintain proportional reserves. This example assumes a more general case in which the sale of a bond precedes expenditure.3 Neo-chartalists object to the notion that a government may require funding, arguing instead that tax revenues or revenue from selling bonds merely takes money out of circulation (Bell Citation2000). For the purposes of this paper, we assume that taking money out of circulation has the same effect as funding expenditure, insofar as it balances the government’s spending in the economy. At the same time, the government of a non-currency sovereign economy may require foreign exchange for expenditur","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135902297","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Secular stagnation and monopoly capitalism","authors":"Malcolm Sawyer","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2023.2270949","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2023.2270949","url":null,"abstract":"The paper opens with a brief review of economic growth in industrialized economies over the past four decades, indicating a general slow-down in growth. This is followed by a brief review of the mainstream views on ‘secular stagnation’. The major section of the paper is based on outlining elements of approaches to secular stagnation within the monopoly capital literature associated with authors such as Steindl, Kalecki and Cowling, followed by consideration of evidence in broad support of those dimensions. This includes the recent, generally upward, trends in industrial concentration, profit margins, and relationship with investment and innovation. Brief remarks are made on the effects of financialization, globalization and climate change on economic growth.","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135902175","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}