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The Government Spending Multiplier in the Presence of the Informal Sector 非正规经济部门存在时的政府支出乘数
IF 1.2 4区 经济学
Open Economies Review Pub Date : 2024-01-18 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-023-09747-0
Ahmed Kamara
{"title":"The Government Spending Multiplier in the Presence of the Informal Sector","authors":"Ahmed Kamara","doi":"10.1007/s11079-023-09747-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-023-09747-0","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In a small open economy framework that features properties of the informal sector, I examine the relationship between this sector and the size of the government spending multiplier. I show that countries with relatively larger shares of this sector in their production are more inclined to generating smaller multipliers. In the presence of the informal sector, the marginal cost, inflation and the real interest rate respond more strongly to the rise in government spending compared to that of an economy without this sector. This leads to a larger fall in private consumption. The resultant multiplier is therefore smaller. In a liquidity trap period however, the amplifying effects of the informal sector on inflation leads to a larger multiplier compared to that of the economy without this sector. These findings suggest that the informal sector could be one of the major driving forces behind the relatively smaller multipliers in low-income countries (most of which are characterized by significantly large shares of this sector in their output).</p>","PeriodicalId":46980,"journal":{"name":"Open Economies Review","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139515242","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Effectiveness of Macroprudential Policies on Credit Surge and Stop Episodes 宏观审慎政策对信贷激增和停止事件的效果
IF 1.2 4区 经济学
Open Economies Review Pub Date : 2024-01-02 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-023-09744-3
Mehmet Fatih Ekinci, Turalay Kenc, Unay Tamgac Tezcan
{"title":"Effectiveness of Macroprudential Policies on Credit Surge and Stop Episodes","authors":"Mehmet Fatih Ekinci, Turalay Kenc, Unay Tamgac Tezcan","doi":"10.1007/s11079-023-09744-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-023-09744-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p>When faced with capital flow and credit growth waves in recent years, policymakers have relied upon macroprudential regulation. This paper sheds light on a relatively less-analyzed policy issue: how macroprudential regulatory measures mitigate extreme credit growth episodes. We use a dynamic panel data approach to estimate the impact of MaPPs on credit growth volatility and the likelihood of credit growth boom and bust episodes. We find that MaPPs reduce credit growth volatility in both advanced economies (AEs) and emerging market economies (EMEs). In addition, MaPPs help to prevent credit surges in EMEs and stops in AEs. Our results show that there is a strong link between net capital flows and credit growth stop episodes. Net capital flow surges trigger a credit surge for EMEs. This suggests that policymakers should consider both MaPPs and capital flow management measures when designing policies to mitigate the risks associated with these phenomena.</p>","PeriodicalId":46980,"journal":{"name":"Open Economies Review","volume":"86 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139078297","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Controversy over European Inflation in 1500–1700: Precious Metals or Population? The English Evidence 1500-1700 年欧洲通货膨胀之争：贵金属还是人口？英国的证据
IF 1.2 4区 经济学
Open Economies Review Pub Date : 2023-12-06 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-023-09743-4
Anthony Edo, Jacques Melitz
{"title":"The Controversy over European Inflation in 1500–1700: Precious Metals or Population? The English Evidence","authors":"Anthony Edo, Jacques Melitz","doi":"10.1007/s11079-023-09743-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-023-09743-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Economists and some economic historians dismiss the populationist hypothesis about responsibility of population growth for the European <i>“Price Revolution”</i>. They attribute the inflation instead to inflow of silver following discovery of the Americas. Based on English evidence in 1500–1700, we show that this dismissal of the populationist position flies in the face of the evidence. Further, whatever the weaknesses of past defenses of the populationist stand, it can be easily framed on a sound economic basis. We also examine critically the monetarist explanation of the Price Revolution. Both theses are jointly important and compatible.</p>","PeriodicalId":46980,"journal":{"name":"Open Economies Review","volume":"42 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138546487","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
The Gibson Paradox and the Fisher Effect in Advanced and Emerging Economies 先进经济体和新兴经济体的吉布森悖论和费雪效应
IF 1.2 4区 经济学
Open Economies Review Pub Date : 2023-12-05 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-023-09746-1
M. I. Chowdhury, Apostolos Serletis
{"title":"The Gibson Paradox and the Fisher Effect in Advanced and Emerging Economies","authors":"M. I. Chowdhury, Apostolos Serletis","doi":"10.1007/s11079-023-09746-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-023-09746-1","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46980,"journal":{"name":"Open Economies Review","volume":"69 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138600530","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Time-Varying Effects of External Shocks on Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Peru: An Empirical Application using TVP-VAR-SV Models 外部冲击对秘鲁宏观经济波动的时变影响:TVP-VAR-SV模型的实证应用
IF 1.2 4区 经济学
Open Economies Review Pub Date : 2023-11-24 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-023-09742-5
Gabriel Rodriguez, Paul Castillo B., Junior A. Ojeda Cunya
{"title":"Time-Varying Effects of External Shocks on Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Peru: An Empirical Application using TVP-VAR-SV Models","authors":"Gabriel Rodriguez, Paul Castillo B., Junior A. Ojeda Cunya","doi":"10.1007/s11079-023-09742-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-023-09742-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study uses a family of VAR models with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-SV) to analyze the impact of external shocks on output growth and inflation in Peru in 1992Q1-2017Q1. The statistical relevance of the models is assessed using the deviance information criterion (DIC) and the marginal log-likelihood calculated using the cross-entropy method. The results show that: (i) it is more relevant to introduce SV than TVP; i.e., the best fitting model admits only varying intercepts and SV; and TVP-VAR and CVAR are the least performing models; (ii) the models’ impulse response functions indicate that the impacts from external shocks are different under high inflation, economic crisis, and monetary policy change, with a greater impact in episodes of high uncertainty; (iii) the impact and importance of external shocks have increased over time; and (iv) the results are robust to changes in the priors, the lag structure, order of the variables, the choice of the external variable, and the selection of the variable for domestic economic activity.</p>","PeriodicalId":46980,"journal":{"name":"Open Economies Review","volume":"74 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138515562","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Systemic Financial Crises and Income Inequality in OECD Countries 经合组织国家的系统性金融危机与收入不平等
IF 1.2 4区 经济学
Open Economies Review Pub Date : 2023-11-16 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-023-09741-6
Puneet Arora, Alberto Chong, Carla Srebot
{"title":"Systemic Financial Crises and Income Inequality in OECD Countries","authors":"Puneet Arora, Alberto Chong, Carla Srebot","doi":"10.1007/s11079-023-09741-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-023-09741-6","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46980,"journal":{"name":"Open Economies Review","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139269309","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Money Growth, Money Velocity and Inflation in the US, 1948–2021 1948-2021年美国货币增长、货币流通速度和通货膨胀
4区 经济学
Open Economies Review Pub Date : 2023-11-11 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-023-09739-0
Juan E. Castañeda, José Luis Cendejas
{"title":"Money Growth, Money Velocity and Inflation in the US, 1948–2021","authors":"Juan E. Castañeda, José Luis Cendejas","doi":"10.1007/s11079-023-09739-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-023-09739-0","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46980,"journal":{"name":"Open Economies Review","volume":"4 6","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135042047","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Effectiveness of Fiscal Announcements: Early Evidence from COVID-19 财政公告的有效性:来自COVID-19的早期证据
4区 经济学
Open Economies Review Pub Date : 2023-11-07 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-023-09735-4
João Tovar Jalles, Bryn Battersby, Rachel Lee
{"title":"Effectiveness of Fiscal Announcements: Early Evidence from COVID-19","authors":"João Tovar Jalles, Bryn Battersby, Rachel Lee","doi":"10.1007/s11079-023-09735-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-023-09735-4","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper empirically examines the effectiveness of announced government fiscal measures in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. First, we build a new panel dataset of fiscal announcements by type, such as above-the line, below-the-line, and contingent liabilities for a wide sample of 136 advanced and developing countries between January 2020 and May 2021. Then, using this newly constructed dataset, we show, using both static and dynamic panel analyses, how various types of fiscal announcements affect alternative proxies of economic activity and across different income groups. We also evaluate how these effects vary depending on the country’s initial conditions (degree of public indebtedness or the business cycle positioning). Fiscal announcements also matter in terms of external credibility since they have an effect on government bond spreads. Ultimately, our findings suggest why it might be critical to consider the “news” effect of a fiscal measure by type rather than at the aggregated level.","PeriodicalId":46980,"journal":{"name":"Open Economies Review","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135476578","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Distributional Effects of Structural Reforms in Developing Countries: Evidence from Financial Liberalization 发展中国家结构性改革的分配效应:来自金融自由化的证据
4区 经济学
Open Economies Review Pub Date : 2023-11-02 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-023-09740-7
Kwamivi Mawuli Gomado
{"title":"Distributional Effects of Structural Reforms in Developing Countries: Evidence from Financial Liberalization","authors":"Kwamivi Mawuli Gomado","doi":"10.1007/s11079-023-09740-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-023-09740-7","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46980,"journal":{"name":"Open Economies Review","volume":"72 12","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135932990","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does the Interest Parity Puzzle Hold for Central and Eastern European Economies? 利率平价之谜是否适用于中东欧经济体?
4区 经济学
Open Economies Review Pub Date : 2023-10-27 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-023-09738-1
Marek A. Dąbrowski, Jakub Janus
{"title":"Does the Interest Parity Puzzle Hold for Central and Eastern European Economies?","authors":"Marek A. Dąbrowski, Jakub Janus","doi":"10.1007/s11079-023-09738-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-023-09738-1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper examines the uncovered interest parity puzzle in Central and Eastern European countries. Apart from investigating baseline UIP regressions, we check for structural breaks in this relationship, scrutinize deviations from the UIP, and employ different estimation methods and models augmented with various risk measures. Moreover, we offer several extensions to the common UIP testing that account for foreign-exchange interventions, the implied volatility of exchange rates, and the limited availability of data on direct measures of market expectations. The study shows that the choice of the reference currency matters for the outcome of the interest parity tests in the CEE economies. In particular, we demonstrate that inconsistencies between the results of the UIP tests vis-à-vis the euro and the US dollar that appear in CEE economies may be accounted for by the movements of the euro-dollar risk premium. This regularity has not been documented in previous studies. Additionally, we show that (a) the FX interventions in Czechia distorted the UIP, (b) the directly measured exchange rate expectations (granular survey data) in Poland do not seem to be informed by the UIP relationship, (c) the limited resilience of CEE economies to rare disasters may plausibly explain deviations from the UIP.","PeriodicalId":46980,"journal":{"name":"Open Economies Review","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136233444","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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