Open Economies Review最新文献

EU Sanctions on Russia and Implications for a Small Open Economy: The Case of Cyprus 欧盟对俄罗斯的制裁及其对小型开放经济体的影响：塞浦路斯案例

IF 1.2 4区经济学

Open Economies Review Pub Date : 2024-09-05 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-024-09786-1

Konstantinos Mavrigiannakis, Stelios Sakkas

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引用次数: 0

Responses of Foreign Exchange Market to External Shocks: What Makes Differences? 外汇市场对外部冲击的反应：是什么造成了差异？

IF 1.2 4区经济学

Open Economies Review Pub Date : 2024-08-28 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-024-09785-2

Hyunjoon Lim

引用次数: 0

Testing for Consumer Risk-Pooling in the Open Economy – further Results 检验开放经济中的消费者风险池--进一步的结果

IF 1.2 4区经济学

Open Economies Review Pub Date : 2024-08-16 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-024-09782-5

Patrick Minford, Zhirong Ou, Zheyi Zhu

引用次数: 0

Assessing Digital Leadership: Is the EU Losing Out to the US? 评估数字化领导力：欧盟是否输给了美国？

IF 1.2 4区经济学

Open Economies Review Pub Date : 2024-07-22 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-024-09772-7

Roman Stöllinger, Dario Guarascio

引用次数: 0

Macroprudential Policies and Global Banking 宏观审慎政策与全球银行业

IF 1.2 4区经济学

Open Economies Review Pub Date : 2024-07-10 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-024-09778-1

Doriane Intungane

引用次数: 0

Which Capital Flow Surge Methods Are Better at Predicting Reversals and Sudden Stops?: Balancing Type 1 and Type 2 Errors 哪种资本流动激增方法更擅长预测逆转和突然停止？平衡第一类和第二类错误

IF 1.2 4区经济学

Open Economies Review Pub Date : 2024-06-29 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-024-09779-0

Yongseok Choi, Levan Efremidze, Ozan Sula, Thomas D. Willett

{"title":"Which Capital Flow Surge Methods Are Better at Predicting Reversals and Sudden Stops?: Balancing Type 1 and Type 2 Errors","authors":"Yongseok Choi, Levan Efremidze, Ozan Sula, Thomas D. Willett","doi":"10.1007/s11079-024-09779-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-024-09779-0","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Capital flow surges have become a major source of concern as they have been often followed by disruptive reversals and sudden stops. We introduce F-score methodology which evaluates how well particular capital flow surge method can predict reversals and sudden stops. F-scores consider both type 1 and type 2 errors and provide policy makers a framework to weigh economic costs of false negative and false positive signals. We construct and compare a large number of commonly used surge identification approaches, including several machine-learning methods, to investigate which types of formulations best help explain which surges are more likely to be reversed. While considerable literature has investigated the determinants of capital flow reversals and sudden stops with surges being included as one of the independent variables, so far little research attention has been focused directly on attempting to determine the likelihood that particular surge will result in reversals or sudden stops. This is the most important question for policies toward capital inflows since the optimal responses to capital flow surges would be quite different depending on whether the flows are likely to be reversed or not. Unfortunately, theory does not offer a clear guide to identifying surges other than that they are unusually large inflows. We emphasize that appropriate evaluation should involve not only precision in predicting reversals but also accuracy in not giving false alarms by predicting reversals that do not occur. In other words, attention needs to be paid to both type 1 and type 2 errors.</p>","PeriodicalId":46980,"journal":{"name":"Open Economies Review","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141529660","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Measuring Inflation During the Pandemic with the Benefit of Hindsight 以事后诸葛亮的眼光衡量大流行病期间的通货膨胀率

IF 1.2 4区经济学

Open Economies Review Pub Date : 2024-06-29 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-024-09776-3

Aftab Chowdhury, Huw Dixon

引用次数: 0

Big Data Analytics and Exports—Evidence for Manufacturing Firms from 27 EU Countries 大数据分析与出口--来自 27 个欧盟国家制造业企业的证据

IF 1.2 4区经济学

Open Economies Review Pub Date : 2024-06-22 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-024-09777-2

Joachim Wagner

引用次数: 0

Convergence in Financial Development and Growth 金融发展与增长的趋同