{"title":"Measuring Inflation During the Pandemic with the Benefit of Hindsight","authors":"Aftab Chowdhury, Huw Dixon","doi":"10.1007/s11079-024-09776-3","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study has adopted the actual household expenditure data from the national accounts to construct a true inflation rate (using the Fisher index) and found that the official inflation rate in the 33 OECD countries was an overestimate of true inflation for 23 and underestimate in 10 countries in the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The result obtained for the countries where true inflation was higher than the official rate in this study matches the results obtained by Cavallo (Inflation with covid consumption baskets, 2020) and Reinsdorf (COVID-19 and the CPI: Is inflation underestimated?, 2020). However, a significant difference has been detected for the countries where the official inflation exceeds the true measure in this study. The core reason behind the discrepancies is in the use of appropriate expenditure weights. This suggests caution in using credit-card based expenditure data when spending behaviour has changed dramatically.</p>","PeriodicalId":1,"journal":{"name":"Accounts of Chemical Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":16.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Accounts of Chemical Research","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-024-09776-3","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"化学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This study has adopted the actual household expenditure data from the national accounts to construct a true inflation rate (using the Fisher index) and found that the official inflation rate in the 33 OECD countries was an overestimate of true inflation for 23 and underestimate in 10 countries in the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The result obtained for the countries where true inflation was higher than the official rate in this study matches the results obtained by Cavallo (Inflation with covid consumption baskets, 2020) and Reinsdorf (COVID-19 and the CPI: Is inflation underestimated?, 2020). However, a significant difference has been detected for the countries where the official inflation exceeds the true measure in this study. The core reason behind the discrepancies is in the use of appropriate expenditure weights. This suggests caution in using credit-card based expenditure data when spending behaviour has changed dramatically.
期刊介绍：
Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance.
Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.
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