Effectiveness of Fiscal Announcements: Early Evidence from COVID-19

IF 1.5 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Open Economies Review Pub Date : 2023-11-07 DOI:10.1007/s11079-023-09735-4

João Tovar Jalles, Bryn Battersby, Rachel Lee

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Abstract This paper empirically examines the effectiveness of announced government fiscal measures in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. First, we build a new panel dataset of fiscal announcements by type, such as above-the line, below-the-line, and contingent liabilities for a wide sample of 136 advanced and developing countries between January 2020 and May 2021. Then, using this newly constructed dataset, we show, using both static and dynamic panel analyses, how various types of fiscal announcements affect alternative proxies of economic activity and across different income groups. We also evaluate how these effects vary depending on the country’s initial conditions (degree of public indebtedness or the business cycle positioning). Fiscal announcements also matter in terms of external credibility since they have an effect on government bond spreads. Ultimately, our findings suggest why it might be critical to consider the “news” effect of a fiscal measure by type rather than at the aggregated level.

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财政公告的有效性:来自COVID-19的早期证据

摘要本文实证检验了新冠疫情背景下政府财政措施的有效性。首先，我们以136个发达国家和发展中国家为样本，在2020年1月至2021年5月期间建立了一个新的按类型(如线上、线下和或有负债)划分的财政公告面板数据集。然后，使用这个新构建的数据集，我们使用静态和动态面板分析，展示了不同类型的财政公告如何影响经济活动的替代代理，并在不同的收入群体中。我们还评估了这些影响如何根据国家的初始条件(公共债务程度或商业周期定位)而变化。财政公告在外部可信度方面也很重要，因为它们会对政府债券息差产生影响。最终，我们的研究结果表明，为什么按类型考虑财政措施的“新闻”效应，而不是在总体水平上考虑，可能是至关重要的。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Open Economies Review ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

2.30

自引率

16.70%

发文量

期刊介绍： The topics covered in Open Economies Review include, but are not limited to, models and applications of (1) trade flows, (2) commercial policy, (3) adjustment mechanism to external imbalances, (4) exchange rate movements, (5) alternative monetary regimes, (6) real and financial integration, (7) monetary union, (8) economic development and (9) external debt. Open Economies Review welcomes original manuscripts, both theoretical and empirical, dealing with international economic issues or national economic issues that have transnational relevance. Furthermore, Open Economies Review solicits contributions bearing on specific events on important branches of the literature. Open Economies Review is open to any and all contributions, without preferences for any particular viewpoint or school of thought. Open Economies Review encourages interdisciplinary communication and interaction among researchers in the vast area of international and transnational economics. Authors will be expected to meet the scientific standards prevailing in their respective fields, and empirical findings must be reproducible. Regardless of degree of complexity and specificity, authors are expected to write an introduction, setting forth the nature of their research and the significance of their findings, in a manner accessible to researchers in other disciplines. Officially cited as: Open Econ Rev