Metroeconomica最新文献

{"title":"Influence of demand and supply factors on trade flows: Evidence for Argentina (1996–2016)","authors":"Florencia Fares,&nbsp;Guido Zack","doi":"10.1111/meca.12450","DOIUrl":"10.1111/meca.12450","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Using an ARDL-ECM model, we estimate the aggregate and sectoral elasticities for Argentina. We confirm that the income elasticities of exports are lower than those of imports. When we control by real labor costs, exchange rate volatility, the black-market exchange rate and domestic absorption, the difference between income elasticities is reduced but remains statistically significant. In the sectoral breakdown, the higher the technological intensity in the industry, the higher the income elasticities. Agro-based, textile, automotive, process, and engineering products have price elasticities two or three times the magnitude of aggregate elasticity.</p>","PeriodicalId":46885,"journal":{"name":"Metroeconomica","volume":"75 2","pages":"154-217"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135254993","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Individual choice and objective demand in a Classical framework","authors":"Antonio D’Agata","doi":"10.1111/meca.12449","DOIUrl":"10.1111/meca.12449","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Taking a cue from some passages of <i>The Wealth of Nations,</i> this paper defines notions of maximum willingness to pay and of individual surplus expressed in hours of labour for a two-good pre-capitalist economy. From the individual surplus, a consistent objective theory of individual choice is constructed, and a demand schedule free from subjective elements is derived.</p>","PeriodicalId":46885,"journal":{"name":"Metroeconomica","volume":"75 1","pages":"134-149"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135346906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reply to Parrinello","authors":"Enrico Bellino,&nbsp;Sebastiano Nerozzi","doi":"10.1111/meca.12445","DOIUrl":"10.1111/meca.12445","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;First of all, we sincerely thank Sergio Parrinello for his detailed comments and criticisms about our book and essay. Parrinello's notes allowed us to critically explore several issues related to the topics covered in the book and possibly clarify our point of view. In this note, we try to offer some replies to keep the debate open and push our understanding a little further. Since many (although not all) of the comments concern Pasinetti's work, it seems convenient to start this note by presenting our understanding of Pasinetti's analysis and explaining how Sergio's comments and criticism may be placed in the context of our reading of Pasinetti's work.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;It seems to us that many of the questions posed by Parrinello are better understood if we recall, first of all, that the model of structural dynamics, fully developed by Pasinetti in his (&lt;span&gt;1981&lt;/span&gt;, &lt;span&gt;1993&lt;/span&gt;) books, basically represents a normative type of analysis. Like Joan Robinson's ‘Golden Age’ dynamics (&lt;span&gt;1956&lt;/span&gt;), Pasinetti's model serves as a benchmark that defines the conditions for the system to grow in full employment equilibrium.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The interest and originality of this model are due to its ability to study the dynamic of the overall economic system by an analytical framework disaggregated at the sectoral level. In this way, it is easy to understand how the different trends of technological progress and labour productivity, spending habits and consumer behaviour, and the allocation of profits and investments between different sectors (essential features of modern capitalist societies) are unlikely to satisfy (if not by chance) the requirements of full employment growth. On the contrary, they tend to produce significant phenomena of technological unemployment and/or Keynesian unemployment (due to a lack of effective demand). For Pasinetti, bolstered by the 1960s critique of the neoclassical theory of capital, these imbalances cannot be resolved through automatic adjustments based on appropriate changes in factor prices. Therefore, moving to an ‘institutional’ level of analysis, a more comprehensive set of adjustment mechanisms is required to bring the actual economic system closer to the level of full employment and adapt it to the evolution of the forces that guide structural dynamics. They must, in the first place, be based on measures aimed at accelerating the processes of reallocation of work among the various productive sectors, training workers and making them capable of adapting to innovations and technological change; secondly, deliberate interventions by policymakers must be aimed at directing the flows of income between the various sectors and filling the gaps in effective demand at an aggregate level.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In this reference model that he called ‘natural system’ (&lt;span&gt;1981&lt;/span&gt;, &lt;span&gt;1993&lt;/span&gt;, &lt;span&gt;2007&lt;/span&gt;), there is no room for a concept of causality understood as ‘perturbation of a normal state’ or as ‘deliberate manipulation’","PeriodicalId":46885,"journal":{"name":"Metroeconomica","volume":"75 1","pages":"15-29"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/meca.12445","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135397017","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Rejoinder to Bellino and Nerozzi","authors":"Sergio Parrinello","doi":"10.1111/meca.12444","DOIUrl":"10.1111/meca.12444","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46885,"journal":{"name":"Metroeconomica","volume":"75 1","pages":"30-33"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135396667","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Give me a U, give me a V, give me an L!: How effective are countercyclical policies in shaping the output dynamic during recessions","authors":"Gonzalo Castañeda,&nbsp;Luis Castro Peñarrieta","doi":"10.1111/meca.12448","DOIUrl":"10.1111/meca.12448","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this paper, we argue that studying recession events through the shapes observed in sequences of GDP data can help to avoid methodological complications and offer new insights to traditional inquiries. With a set of 147 recession events from 77 countries, we analyze whether the shape of the output dynamic might be affected by the application of countercyclical policies. Firstly, we apply a machine learning technique to discover and cluster the shapes (or ‘shapelets’) that prevail in empirical spells. Secondly, we use a multinomial model to study fiscal and monetary interventions, in which we specify the categorical variable with a set of statistically different shapelets. Not only do we find strong empirical evidence that it is possible to overcome a recession through countercyclical policies, but also that there are non-linear effects that make it more likely when the strength of these policies crosses certain thresholds.</p>","PeriodicalId":46885,"journal":{"name":"Metroeconomica","volume":"75 1","pages":"107-133"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134910773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Matrix multipliers, demand composition and income distribution: Post-Keynesian–Sraffian theory and evidence from the world's ten largest economies","authors":"Theodore Mariolis,&nbsp;Nikolaos Ntemiroglou","doi":"10.1111/meca.12442","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/meca.12442","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper builds and explores in detail a post-Keynesian–Sraffian one-country model of effective demand, which, on the one hand, extends the Kurz multiplier model to open–with state-economies of single production and, on the other hand, is applicable to data from the National Input–Output Tables of the World Input–Output Database. Thus, it estimates the net output, import and employment matrix demand multipliers for the world's 10 largest economies. The overall findings provide general support for and new insights into Sraffian theoretical and policy arguments: (i) the multiplier effects depend heavily on the physical composition of autonomous demand; (ii) the incremental share of wages in net national income can move in either direction with an increase in the savings ratios out of wages and profits and/or the corresponding direct tax rates; (iii) there is, in general, no one-to-one correspondence between alternative tax–transfer policies and their multiplier effects; and (iv) there is not necessarily an inverse relationship between the overall level of the profit rate and the multiplier effects or the wage share.</p>","PeriodicalId":46885,"journal":{"name":"Metroeconomica","volume":"74 4","pages":"658-697"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/meca.12442","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50131094","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modern services led growth and development in a structuralist dual economy: Long-run implications of skilled labor constraint","authors":"Gogol Mitra Thakur","doi":"10.1111/meca.12443","DOIUrl":"10.1111/meca.12443","url":null,"abstract":"Motivated by the South Asian experience, this paper examines the role of expansion of skilled labor force for modern services led growth and development in economies with low average educational attainment. The model economy consists of two capital‐using sectors—a service sector that employs only skilled labor and an industry sector that does not require skilled labor. The service sector represents modern skilled‐labor intensive services whereas the industry sector represents a typical South Asian industry. Supply of unskilled labor is unlimited but skilled labor is relatively scarce and grows at a finite rate. Increase in the skill premium only partially explains growth of skilled‐labor supply while the rest depends on autonomous factors, which may be influenced by education policies of the government. The main result specifies a set of necessary and sufficient conditions for existence of a unique steady state characterized by balanced sectoral growth at a rate determined by the autonomous part of skilled labor growth. A low wage share and stagnant investment conditions in the industry sector are conducive for both existence and local stability of this steady state. The model shows that supply‐side factors may completely determine steady state growth rates in structuralist models despite presence of unemployed resources.","PeriodicalId":46885,"journal":{"name":"Metroeconomica","volume":"74 4","pages":"748-776"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47851312","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Can displaced workers have a fresh start?","authors":"Hideki Nakamura","doi":"10.1111/meca.12446","DOIUrl":"10.1111/meca.12446","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study considers low-ability workers with the difference in their specialization areas and investigates the consequence of automation. There are two findings. First, owing to automation, it is more difficult for displaced workers than for other workers to find a new job, because these displaced workers lose their suitable jobs. Consequently, the unemployment rate increases with an increase in the number of displaced workers. Second, unless an additional increase in unsuitable jobs is large under the introduction of new tasks, automation does not necessarily increase the unemployment rate because it is less difficult for workers to find a new job.</p>","PeriodicalId":46885,"journal":{"name":"Metroeconomica","volume":"75 1","pages":"83-106"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135150208","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Public procurement and reputation. An agent-based model","authors":"Nadia Fiorino,&nbsp;Emma Galli,&nbsp;Ilde Rizzo,&nbsp;Marco Valente","doi":"10.1111/meca.12441","DOIUrl":"10.1111/meca.12441","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper uses an agent-based computational model to investigate whether and how considering the firm's reputation in the public procurement selection process affects the expected final contract cost. We take account of different sets of simulations and a range of model parameters (such as firm skills, level of opportunistic rebate, relative weights of reputation and rebate) and propose a reputation index based on the cost overruns recorded by winning firms at the conclusion of their contracts. We show that this index allows the awarding authority to (i) select the most efficient and the least opportunistic firms, and (ii) to exclude firms that engage in frequent opportunistic behavior whose reputation has declined. Our results suggest that reputation matters, and we derive some implications for policy.</p>","PeriodicalId":46885,"journal":{"name":"Metroeconomica","volume":"74 4","pages":"806-832"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/meca.12441","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46177430","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Thirlwall's law: Binding constraint or ‘centre-of-gravity’?","authors":"Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández,&nbsp;Serena Sordi","doi":"10.1111/meca.12439","DOIUrl":"10.1111/meca.12439","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Thirlwall's law is one of the most powerful empirical regularities in demand-led growth theories. In recent years, the challenges imposed by globalisation have led to a new wave of studies incorporating into this framework topics such as ecological sustainability, the complexity of innovation processes, the role of institutions, the composition of external imbalances, and gender issues. We notice some overlapping between two alternative interpretations: one that sees the law as a <i>binding constraint</i> and another that adopts a kind of ‘<i>centre-of-gravity</i>’ perspective. It is argued that they may be rather complementary. By means of a simple Keynesian multiplier model compatible with Harrodian instability, we show that assuming a balance-of-payments ceiling to growth gives rise to persistent and bounded fluctuations such that the external constraint works as an asymmetric ‘centre-of-gravity’. There is no need to impose a floor to output. Moreover, the model allows for different sources of autonomous demand. Numerical simulations show the robustness of our results with respect to alternative scenarios.</p>","PeriodicalId":46885,"journal":{"name":"Metroeconomica","volume":"75 1","pages":"52-82"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/meca.12439","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44012732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}