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Institutional Changes, Effective Demand, and Inequality: A Structuralist Model of Secular Stagnation 制度变迁、有效需求和不平等：长期停滞的结构主义模型
IF 0.8 3区 经济学
Metroeconomica Pub Date : 2026-10-10 Epub Date: 2025-05-13 DOI: 10.1111/meca.12499
Vinicius Curti Cícero, Daniele Tavani
{"title":"Institutional Changes, Effective Demand, and Inequality: A Structuralist Model of Secular Stagnation","authors":"Vinicius Curti Cícero,&nbsp;Daniele Tavani","doi":"10.1111/meca.12499","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/meca.12499","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper addresses the factors driving economic stagnation and inequality in the US over recent decades. We study a demand-driven model with joint adjustment of the functional distribution and capacity utilization in the short run, and explore the dynamics of wealth accumulation and labor productivity growth in the long run. Our analysis formally explains several stylized facts observed in the US economy in the neoliberal period: the decline in labor share of income, the increase in the top 1% wealth share, the slowdown in labor productivity growth, and the reduction in the income-capital ratio. Institutional changes that weakened workers' bargaining power or strengthened firms' market power have reduced the labor share of income. While these changes may have initially stimulated short-term economic activity and accumulation, their long-term effects are concerning. In particular, a lower labor share negatively impacts labor productivity growth and, in turn, slows down the growth rate of the economy in the long run. To achieve balanced growth, the rate of capacity utilization must eventually decrease. Importantly, our model's long run boils down to a simple 2D dynamical system in the capitalist wealth share and the labor share of income. Our findings demonstrate that an institutionally-driven decline in the labor share exacerbates wealth inequality and ultimately depresses demand in the long run; and that taxation of capital gains can lower both wealth and income inequality. These results point to the importance of policies counterbalancing the labor-crushing developments of the past decades.</p>","PeriodicalId":46885,"journal":{"name":"Metroeconomica","volume":"77 4","pages":"392-409"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2026-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/meca.12499","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149146298","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Lance Taylor: Reconstructing Macroeconomics and Contributions to Development Economics 兰斯·泰勒：重建宏观经济学和对发展经济学的贡献
IF 0.8 3区 经济学
Metroeconomica Pub Date : 2026-10-10 Epub Date: 2026-07-14 DOI: 10.1111/meca.70025
Laura Carvalho, Michalis Nikiforos
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引用次数: 0
Output Gap Uncertainty, Sovereign Risk Premia and the Contingent Importance of the Bond Vigilantes 产出缺口不确定性、主权风险溢价与债券义务警员的偶然性重要性
IF 0.8 3区 经济学
Metroeconomica Pub Date : 2026-10-10 Epub Date: 2026-02-17 DOI: 10.1111/meca.70013
Christian R. Proaño, Jonas Dix
{"title":"Output Gap Uncertainty, Sovereign Risk Premia and the Contingent Importance of the Bond Vigilantes","authors":"Christian R. Proaño,&nbsp;Jonas Dix","doi":"10.1111/meca.70013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/meca.70013","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper investigates the implications of output gap uncertainty for the conduct of fiscal policy using a small-scale macroeconomic model with boundedly rational agents. Specifically, agents use an adaptive updating mechanism to approximate the unobservable potential output that suffers, similarly to the Hodrick and Prescott (1997) filter, from an end-point bias. This generates an unintendedly procyclical fiscal policy that affects the government's credibility and by extension the sovereign risk premium. Our simulations highlight the importance of this so-called bond vigilantes channel, as well as of the government's credibility among financial markets, for the sustainability of government debt and for macroeconomic stability.</p>","PeriodicalId":46885,"journal":{"name":"Metroeconomica","volume":"77 4","pages":"450-469"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2026-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/meca.70013","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149146499","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Distribution and Steady-State Growth Revisited 重新审视分布和稳态增长
IF 0.8 3区 经济学
Metroeconomica Pub Date : 2026-10-10 Epub Date: 2025-07-12 DOI: 10.1111/meca.12508
Mark Setterfield
{"title":"Distribution and Steady-State Growth Revisited","authors":"Mark Setterfield","doi":"10.1111/meca.12508","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/meca.12508","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Motivated by extensions to the neo-Goodwinian framework pioneered by Lance Taylor, this paper investigates the two-way interaction between growth and distribution. A particular focus is the effects of distribution on both the equilibrium and natural rates of growth, and the reconciliation of these growth rates in a steady-state configuration. A model is developed in which medium-run growth is profit-led, but steady-state growth is wage-led. This result is shown to be robust to the introduction of different sources of technical change, and the demand- and supply-side effects of human capacities accumulation.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46885,"journal":{"name":"Metroeconomica","volume":"77 4","pages":"410-421"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2026-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149146484","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Contractionary Effects of Devaluation and the Balance Sheet Effect in a Macroeconomic Model With Heterogeneous Firms 异质企业宏观经济模型中的贬值收缩效应和资产负债表效应
IF 0.8 3区 经济学
Metroeconomica Pub Date : 2026-10-10 Epub Date: 2026-04-11 DOI: 10.1111/meca.70020
Lucca Gustafson Rodrigues, Lílian Rolim, Laura Carvalho
{"title":"Contractionary Effects of Devaluation and the Balance Sheet Effect in a Macroeconomic Model With Heterogeneous Firms","authors":"Lucca Gustafson Rodrigues,&nbsp;Lílian Rolim,&nbsp;Laura Carvalho","doi":"10.1111/meca.70020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/meca.70020","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We propose a demand-led heterogeneous firm macroeconomic model to study the impact of an exchange rate devaluation on output and financial stability. We simulate the model and find that, in the presence of foreign debt, a devaluation can have contractionary effects. This effect is mediated by the responsiveness of exports to the exchange rate and is attenuated when the traditional trade channel is stronger. Still, the balance sheet effect operates increasing indebtedness and financial instability.</p>","PeriodicalId":46885,"journal":{"name":"Metroeconomica","volume":"77 4","pages":"326-340"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2026-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/meca.70020","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149146460","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Structural Change and the Labor Share: Insights From Baumol and Lewis 结构变化与劳动收入占比：来自鲍莫尔和刘易斯的见解
IF 0.8 3区 经济学
Metroeconomica Pub Date : 2026-10-10 Epub Date: 2025-11-27 DOI: 10.1111/meca.70004
Codrina Rada, Ansel Schiavone
{"title":"Structural Change and the Labor Share: Insights From Baumol and Lewis","authors":"Codrina Rada,&nbsp;Ansel Schiavone","doi":"10.1111/meca.70004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/meca.70004","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper makes two contributions. First, it links a model of structural change and income distribution to a method of decomposing the aggregate labor share into sectoral contributions. Second, it formalizes the interaction between structural change and the labor share using Baumol (1967) and Lewis (1954). The premise is a shift of employment from progressive to stagnant sectors. We find that: stagnant sector labor share dominates distribution under Baumolian assumptions; and, only the Lewis model can deliver a decline in the aggregate labor share for an economy undergoing a reverse-Lewis structural change along the lines of Taylor and Ömer (2019).</p>","PeriodicalId":46885,"journal":{"name":"Metroeconomica","volume":"77 4","pages":"438-449"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2026-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/meca.70004","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149146567","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Revising Structuralism in Times of Crisis: Lance Taylor and the Neo-Structuralist Synthesis in the 1980s 危机时代对结构主义的修正：兰斯·泰勒与80年代新结构主义的综合
IF 0.8 3区 经济学
Metroeconomica Pub Date : 2026-10-10 Epub Date: 2026-05-10 DOI: 10.1111/meca.70021
Andrew M. Fischer
{"title":"Revising Structuralism in Times of Crisis: Lance Taylor and the Neo-Structuralist Synthesis in the 1980s","authors":"Andrew M. Fischer","doi":"10.1111/meca.70021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/meca.70021","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article places the work of Lance Taylor in the broader context of efforts in the 1980s to renew the structuralist tradition of development economics, into what was then newly coined as neo-structuralism. These efforts centred around three groups: CEPAL, Lance Taylor and his team at MIT, and a group of economists based at the Institute of Social Studies in The Hague. The efforts included a strong focus on theoretical modelling, in which Lance Taylor played a leading role, albeit with much tension and debate from within these efforts, especially around whether to accommodate or reject neoclassical microfoundations. Taylor's position was ambiguous in this regard, although he was possibly pushed towards a more explicit heterodox position in the 1990s through the interactions and debates between these three groups in the 1980s.</p>","PeriodicalId":46885,"journal":{"name":"Metroeconomica","volume":"77 4","pages":"365-378"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2026-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/meca.70021","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149146592","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Racial Inequality, Growth and Distribution 种族不平等，增长和分配
IF 0.8 3区 经济学
Metroeconomica Pub Date : 2026-10-10 Epub Date: 2026-04-03 DOI: 10.1111/meca.70018
Amitava Krishna Dutt
{"title":"Racial Inequality, Growth and Distribution","authors":"Amitava Krishna Dutt","doi":"10.1111/meca.70018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/meca.70018","url":null,"abstract":"<p>A post-Keynesian-Kaleckian model along structuralist lines is developed to incorporate the issue of racial inequality into the analysis of growth and distribution. It draws on ideas presented in the literature about the relationship between class inequality between capitalists and workers, and racial inequality between White and Black workers, including the recent contributions to stratification economics. The model formalizes the dynamics of racial and class inequality to show that racial discrimination can persist in the long run, but various patterns of the evolution of inequality can emerge, including stable equilibria, multiple equilibria and instability. The dynamics is found to depend on whether growth is wage led or profit led, and on how racial inequality affects and is affected by class inequality.</p>","PeriodicalId":46885,"journal":{"name":"Metroeconomica","volume":"77 4","pages":"379-391"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2026-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/meca.70018","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149145640","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How Are “Financial Balances” Financed? Wicksell, (Keynes) and the US Mainstream Don't Fit Today's Institutions; Kalecki, Triffin, and Minsky Got it Right “财务平衡”是如何融资的？威克塞尔、凯恩斯和美国主流不适合当今的制度卡莱茨基，特里芬和明斯基做对了
IF 0.8 3区 经济学
Metroeconomica Pub Date : 2026-10-10 Epub Date: 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1111/meca.70007
Michalis Nikiforos, Lance Taylor
{"title":"How Are “Financial Balances” Financed? Wicksell, (Keynes) and the US Mainstream Don't Fit Today's Institutions; Kalecki, Triffin, and Minsky Got it Right","authors":"Michalis Nikiforos,&nbsp;Lance Taylor","doi":"10.1111/meca.70007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/meca.70007","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The paper examines the financial balances of the US economy. Government is the main borrower and households and the foreign sector the main lenders. Business net lending is minimal. The balances and their underlying transactions contradict the loanable funds theory and its “global savings glut” variation. Keynes's liquidity preference theory is correct but, in its original formulation, overlooked government and foreign sector flows. The internal finance of business investment aligns with Kalecki's profit equation. The foreign deficit, tied to the dollar's role as a reserve currency, reflects systemic global demand for dollar assets, as explained by Triffin and Minsky.</p>","PeriodicalId":46885,"journal":{"name":"Metroeconomica","volume":"77 4","pages":"310-325"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2026-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/meca.70007","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149145968","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Demand-Led Growth Under Inflation Targeting: A Dynamic Structuralist Post Keynesian Model 通胀目标制下的需求导向增长：后凯恩斯主义动态结构主义模型
IF 0.8 3区 经济学
Metroeconomica Pub Date : 2026-10-10 Epub Date: 2026-03-23 DOI: 10.1111/meca.70017
Nelson H. Barbosa-Filho
{"title":"Demand-Led Growth Under Inflation Targeting: A Dynamic Structuralist Post Keynesian Model","authors":"Nelson H. Barbosa-Filho","doi":"10.1111/meca.70017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/meca.70017","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This paper presents a Structuralist-Post-Keynesian model of growth, distribution, and inflation target. The simulation results show that inflation can be on target under very different structural configurations, meaning that there is more than one growth rate consistent with a given inflation target, and the same holds for the employment rate, the labor share, and the real interest rate. The results also show that endogenous indexation sets a limit to expansionary policies because, if inflation stays too high for too long, inflation becomes rigid downwards and explosive upwards. On the other hand, contractionary policies can produce self-fulfilling slow-growth expectations.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46885,"journal":{"name":"Metroeconomica","volume":"77 4","pages":"470-483"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2026-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149146540","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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