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A Time-Varying Finance-Led Model for U.S. Business Cycles 美国经济周期的时变金融主导模型
IF 0.9 3区 经济学
Metroeconomica Pub Date : 2026-04-10 Epub Date: 2025-09-16 DOI: 10.1111/meca.12516
Marcio Santetti
{"title":"A Time-Varying Finance-Led Model for U.S. Business Cycles","authors":"Marcio Santetti","doi":"10.1111/meca.12516","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/meca.12516","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This paper empirically assesses predictions of Goodwin's cyclical growth model regarding demand and distributive regimes when integrating the real and financial sectors. In addition, it evaluates how the effects of distributive, demand, and financial shocks over six different U.S. business-cycle peaks. It identifies a parsimonious Time-Varying Vector Autoregressive model with Stochastic Volatility (TVP-VAR-SV) containing the labor share of income, the employment rate, residential investment, and the term spread as endogenous variables. Using Bayesian inference methods, key results suggest (<i>i</i>) a combination of profit-led demand and profit-squeeze distribution; (<i>ii</i>) weakening of these regimes after the Great Moderation years; and (<i>iii</i>) significant connections between the standard Goodwinian variables and residential investment as well as term spreads. Findings presented here broadly conform to the goal of reducing macroeconomic volatility after the 1980s.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46885,"journal":{"name":"Metroeconomica","volume":"77 2","pages":"115-137"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2026-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147686154","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Network Externalities, Endogenous Managerial Delegation, and Import Tariffs Policy in a Cournot Third-Country Model 古诺第三国模型中的网络外部性、内生管理委托与进口关税政策
IF 0.9 3区 经济学
Metroeconomica Pub Date : 2026-04-10 Epub Date: 2025-12-04 DOI: 10.1111/meca.70003
Di Wu, Leonard F. S. Wang
{"title":"Network Externalities, Endogenous Managerial Delegation, and Import Tariffs Policy in a Cournot Third-Country Model","authors":"Di Wu,&nbsp;Leonard F. S. Wang","doi":"10.1111/meca.70003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/meca.70003","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This paper explores the endogenous managerial delegation choice in a Cournot third-country model with network externalities. Each exporting firm's owner chooses between a sales delegation and a relative-performance delegation contract. It is shown that in a Cournot third-country model with free trade, both owners optimally choose relative performance delegation. In contrast, under discriminatory import tariffs, sales delegation becomes the optimal strategy for both firms.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46885,"journal":{"name":"Metroeconomica","volume":"77 2","pages":"174-190"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2026-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147686760","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Integrating the Social Reproduction of Labour Into Macroeconomic Theory: Unpaid Caregiving and Productivity in Paid Production 将劳动的社会再生产纳入宏观经济理论：有偿生产中的无偿照料与生产率
IF 0.9 3区 经济学
Metroeconomica Pub Date : 2026-04-10 Epub Date: 2025-09-13 DOI: 10.1111/meca.12515
Mark Setterfield
{"title":"Integrating the Social Reproduction of Labour Into Macroeconomic Theory: Unpaid Caregiving and Productivity in Paid Production","authors":"Mark Setterfield","doi":"10.1111/meca.12515","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/meca.12515","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the integration of unpaid caregiving in the household into short- and long-term macroeconomic theory and, in particular, the theoretical structure of production on the supply-side of the economy. The ambition of the project is to furnish a general theoretical representation of how unpaid caregiving and its (gendered) social structure contributes to the technical conditions of production in the sphere of marketed output. In so doing, it aims to provide macro theorists with an apparatus that allows consistent description of both short-term (levels of activity) and long-term (rates of growth) macro outcomes in a manner that routinely integrates feminist insights regarding the gendered structure of the social reproduction of labour into macroeconomic analysis.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46885,"journal":{"name":"Metroeconomica","volume":"77 2","pages":"106-114"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2026-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147686135","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
On the Impact of Government Debt on Income Distribution in a Post-Keynesian Framework With Workers' Saving 后凯恩斯主义框架下政府债务对收入分配的影响及工人储蓄
IF 0.9 3区 经济学
Metroeconomica Pub Date : 2026-04-10 Epub Date: 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1111/meca.70005
Hagen M. Krämer, Christian R. Proaño, Sven Schnellbacher
{"title":"On the Impact of Government Debt on Income Distribution in a Post-Keynesian Framework With Workers' Saving","authors":"Hagen M. Krämer,&nbsp;Christian R. Proaño,&nbsp;Sven Schnellbacher","doi":"10.1111/meca.70005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/meca.70005","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper examines the complex relationship between government debt and income distribution within a post-Keynesian framework. Extending the model of You and Dutt (1996), we model both capitalists and workers as holders of government bonds, enabling a more nuanced analysis of income distribution dynamics. In our model, public debt accumulation does not invariably lead to greater inequality, but it can reduce income disparities instead. The mechanism at work diverges from the conventional account according to which a redistribution from taxpayers to bondholders occurs. Instead, the more important channel operates through the expansionary effects of public borrowing. When the analysis is extended to allow for an endogenous rise in real interest rates, the outcome also reflects the dampening of investment and, consequently, reduced growth. The distributional consequences of higher debt therefore depend on the forces driving accumulation and the extent to which they generate expansionary dynamics.</p>","PeriodicalId":46885,"journal":{"name":"Metroeconomica","volume":"77 2","pages":"191-205"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2026-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/meca.70005","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147686842","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Classical Theory of Markets and Effectual Demand 经典的市场和有效需求理论
IF 0.9 3区 经济学
Metroeconomica Pub Date : 2026-04-10 Epub Date: 2025-10-08 DOI: 10.1111/meca.12517
Antonio D'Agata
{"title":"A Classical Theory of Markets and Effectual Demand","authors":"Antonio D'Agata","doi":"10.1111/meca.12517","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/meca.12517","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The paper argues that the Sraffian interpretation of Classical economics overlooks the individual dimension and the role of willingness to pay in Smith's definition of effectual demand. Generalizing a recent Smithian model of individual choice in precapitalistic economies, a model of individual choice in a Sraffian framework is proposed that allows a precise formulation of individual and aggregate effectual demand coherent with Smith's view. The model allows also a short-period analysis of markets and it provides sufficient conditions for the Classical adjustment process to converge towards the long-period configuration, thus mitigating Steedman's criticism to the Classical view of gravitation.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46885,"journal":{"name":"Metroeconomica","volume":"77 2","pages":"138-146"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2026-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147686964","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Public Debt Dynamics in a Monetary Economy of Production 货币经济生产中的公共债务动态
IF 0.9 3区 经济学
Metroeconomica Pub Date : 2026-04-10 Epub Date: 2025-11-04 DOI: 10.1111/meca.70002
Lorenzo Di Domenico
{"title":"Public Debt Dynamics in a Monetary Economy of Production","authors":"Lorenzo Di Domenico","doi":"10.1111/meca.70002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/meca.70002","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper investigates the determinants and stability conditions of the public debt-to-GDP ratio within a theoretical framework representing the main characteristics of a monetary economy of production. To this end, we develop a dynamic Stock-Flow Consistent (SFC) model based on the Supermultiplier approach, incorporating both bank and fiat money, capital accumulation and endogenous public debt service. Steady-state values are derived, and stability is assessed through both analytical and simulation-based approaches. Our main findings show that the public debt-to-GDP ratio is positively influenced by the saving rate and negatively influenced by the growth rate of autonomous demand components and the capital intensity of the economy. The effects of the interest rate and tax rate are found to be non-linear, depending on the growth regime emerging in the economy. Under the “standard-regime”, the tax rate has a negative impact, while the impact of the policy rate is positive. Given the exogenous parameters, and under the stability conditions, there exists a long-run level of public debt-to-GDP ratio toward which the economy converges. These results challenge the rationale for applying blanket regulations on public budgets, disregarding the distinct traits of each economic system.</p>","PeriodicalId":46885,"journal":{"name":"Metroeconomica","volume":"77 2","pages":"147-173"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2026-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/meca.70002","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147686897","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Interest Rate as an Artifact of Self-Validating Beliefs Under Different Price-Quantity Interactions 不同价格-数量交互作用下，利率作为自我验证信念的人工制品
IF 0.9 3区 经济学
Metroeconomica Pub Date : 2025-09-05 DOI: 10.1111/meca.12514
Ariel Dvoskin, Emiliano Libman
{"title":"The Interest Rate as an Artifact of Self-Validating Beliefs Under Different Price-Quantity Interactions","authors":"Ariel Dvoskin,&nbsp;Emiliano Libman","doi":"10.1111/meca.12514","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/meca.12514","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The paper examines the role of the interest rate as a conventional variable, influenced by political, institutional and structural factors, and in particular, by central bank's beliefs. To this aim, we develop a minimal model inspired in the New Consensus literature but aligned with the post Keynesian principles on output and income distribution. We show that these beliefs can exert their influence under quite general circumstances, compatible with alternative hypotheses about the connection between prices and quantities. The role of these beliefs is finally examined in an open economy framework.</p>","PeriodicalId":46885,"journal":{"name":"Metroeconomica","volume":"77 1","pages":"94-104"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2025-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145969608","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Monetary Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models and Inflation Persistence 货币动态随机一般均衡模型与通货膨胀持续性
IF 0.9 3区 经济学
Metroeconomica Pub Date : 2025-08-23 DOI: 10.1111/meca.12512
Salaheddine El Omari, Jalal Qanas
{"title":"Monetary Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models and Inflation Persistence","authors":"Salaheddine El Omari,&nbsp;Jalal Qanas","doi":"10.1111/meca.12512","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/meca.12512","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The paper investigates the capacity of New Keynesian (NK) models to explain inflation persistence without relying on ad hoc backwards-looking mechanisms or external source of inertia. It explores various features of NK models– such as sticky wages, roundabout production structure, positive trend inflation, and monetary policy inertia– that could generate persistent inflation. The paper's main finding is that the interaction between sticky prices, sticky wages, intermediate input, real frictions and the Taylor rule, especially the inertial component of the rule, is particularly effective in generating highly serially correlated movements in inflation as observed in data.</p>","PeriodicalId":46885,"journal":{"name":"Metroeconomica","volume":"77 1","pages":"82-93"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2025-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/meca.12512","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145983824","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Entry Deterrence, Macroeconomic Equilibria and Pro-Competitive Policies 进入威慑、宏观经济均衡与促进竞争政策
IF 0.9 3区 经济学
Metroeconomica Pub Date : 2025-07-31 DOI: 10.1111/meca.12510
Claudio De Vincenti
{"title":"Entry Deterrence, Macroeconomic Equilibria and Pro-Competitive Policies","authors":"Claudio De Vincenti","doi":"10.1111/meca.12510","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/meca.12510","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper achieves a macroeconomic equilibrium which is microfounded on an oligopolistic entry deterrence game à la Dixit-Spence. This equilibrium has implications for pro-competitive policies which differ from those obtained by models based on a monopolistic competition framework: (i) positive effects on employment and real wage of a policy that increases the elasticity of demand persist in the long run; (ii) a reduction in the fixed entry cost has favorable effects on employment and real wage both in the short and in the long run; (iii) a mix of the two policies enhances their positive effects, asymptotically approaching competitive equilibrium.</p>","PeriodicalId":46885,"journal":{"name":"Metroeconomica","volume":"77 1","pages":"71-81"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/meca.12510","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145987303","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Dynamic Analysis of the Effect of Minimum Wage on Economic Growth, Public Debt, and Welfare 最低工资对经济增长、公共债务和福利影响的动态分析
IF 0.9 3区 经济学
Metroeconomica Pub Date : 2025-07-26 DOI: 10.1111/meca.12509
Toyoki Matsue, Mitsuru Ueshina, Hiroki Aso
{"title":"Dynamic Analysis of the Effect of Minimum Wage on Economic Growth, Public Debt, and Welfare","authors":"Toyoki Matsue,&nbsp;Mitsuru Ueshina,&nbsp;Hiroki Aso","doi":"10.1111/meca.12509","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/meca.12509","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study analyzes the effect of minimum wage on growth and welfare under government debt. We assume minimum wage causes unemployment and that the government finances unemployment benefits via taxes and public debt. This study shows that there is an optimal minimum wage level that maximizes long-term economic growth, which increases with the ratio of fiscal deficit to GDP. Moreover, the effect of introducing a minimum wage on the welfare of each generation varies across generations. Specifically, the introduction of minimum wage worsens the welfare of future generations but improves that of the initial generation compared to the balanced-budget rule.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46885,"journal":{"name":"Metroeconomica","volume":"77 1","pages":"55-70"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145983975","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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