Contemporary Security Policy最新文献_第3页

Deterrence by delivery of arms: NATO and the war in Ukraine 武器输送的威慑:北约和乌克兰战争

1区社会学

Contemporary Security Policy Pub Date : 2023-09-28 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2023.2256572

Amir Lupovici

引用次数: 0

Utility-based predictions of military escalation: Why experts forecasted Russia would not invade Ukraine 基于效用的军事升级预测:为什么专家预测俄罗斯不会入侵乌克兰

1区社会学

Contemporary Security Policy Pub Date : 2023-09-26 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2023.2259153

Jonas J. Driedger, Mikhail Polianskii

引用次数: 5

The limits of weaponised interdependence after the Russian war against Ukraine 俄罗斯对乌克兰开战后，武器化的相互依赖的局限性

1区社会学

Contemporary Security Policy Pub Date : 2023-09-24 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2023.2256065

Vinícius G. Rodrigues Vieira

{"title":"The limits of weaponised interdependence after the Russian war against Ukraine","authors":"Vinícius G. Rodrigues Vieira","doi":"10.1080/13523260.2023.2256065","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2023.2256065","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACTThe idea of weaponised interdependence has led many to believe that Russia would not invade Ukraine due to the high costs of sanctions, including through the Western-backed SWIFT system of financial payments. Although Russia’s economy has been facing shortcomings, the Russian leadership thrived in part due to connections beyond the West. This article argues that scholars have missed the fact that, more than being interdependent with the West, rising states have been decoupling from the United States and the European Union. Emerging powers, particularly China and Russia, have expanded their trade network and built their own financial infrastructure. Those transformations call for a less Western-centric International Relations (IR) scholarship. Scholars should furthermore not only focus on theories of Neoliberal Institutionalism, but also consider contributions from Realism and Marxism to International Political Economy (IPE).KEYWORDS: Sanctionsdecouplingde-dollarizationSWIFTCIPSBRICS AcknowledgementsI would like to thank the CSP editorial team for their guidance in preparing the final version of this manuscript. I am also grateful for the comments two anonymous reviewers provided. Any remaining mistakes are my own responsibility.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 In revising the second edition of this work, published in 1990, Pape (Citation1997, Citation1998, p. 66) claimed that only five cases out of 114 can actually be considered successful.","PeriodicalId":46729,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Security Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135924996","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Horses, nails, and messages: Three defense industries of the Ukraine war 马、钉子和信息:乌克兰战争的三大国防工业

1区社会学

Contemporary Security Policy Pub Date : 2023-09-24 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2023.2257965

Jonathan D. Caverley

{"title":"Horses, nails, and messages: Three defense industries of the Ukraine war","authors":"Jonathan D. Caverley","doi":"10.1080/13523260.2023.2257965","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2023.2257965","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACTMajor arms producing states and defense firms have struggled to supply the Ukraine war's massive demand for munitions. Key elements of the war—such as artificial intelligence-enabled analysis of data obtained from commercial surveillance satellites transmitted by the privately-owned Starlink network—have emerged from new providers as well as developed organically on the battlefield. Research failed to anticipate this due largely to the discipline’s focus on the “defense industry” rather than three distinct “defense industries” highlighted in the war: platforms such as tanks, commodities such as artillery shells and loitering munitions, and militarized “tech” such as commercial satellites and artificial intelligence. Understanding each requires a distinct political economic approach. Using these three lenses, the article concludes that the United States retains advantages in all three industries, Europe risks regressing into a commodities producer, and China seeks to disrupt, rather than duplicate, American defense industrial advantages in technology.KEYWORDS: Ukrainemilitary technologydefense industryspacedefense economics AcknowledgementsThe author would like to thank Jordan Becker, Ethan Kapstein, Mike Poznansky, and Sam Tangredi.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).","PeriodicalId":46729,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Security Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135926514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Whether to worry: Nuclear weapons in the Russia-Ukraine war 是否需要担心:俄乌战争中的核武器

1区社会学

Contemporary Security Policy Pub Date : 2023-09-24 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2023.2260175

Giles David Arceneaux

{"title":"Whether to worry: Nuclear weapons in the Russia-Ukraine war","authors":"Giles David Arceneaux","doi":"10.1080/13523260.2023.2260175","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2023.2260175","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACTRussia’s war in Ukraine directly speaks to a core theory in nuclear politics: the theory of the nuclear revolution. Whereas this theory argues that nuclear weapons inhibit conflict and competition in international politics, skeptics of the nuclear revolution argue that competition endures in a nuclear world, and that nuclear weapons can even enable such competition. This article argues that the Russia-Ukraine war challenges expectations of the theory of the nuclear revolution, while largely supporting arguments made by the nuclear revolution skeptics. Specifically, the article argues that the theory of the nuclear revolution cannot explain Russia’s use of nuclear threats to enable its conventional aggression, nor can it explain the ways in which Russia has developed its nuclear posture to provide a bargaining advantage in competitive risk-taking scenarios. These findings challenge the leading theory in the field of nuclear politics and yield policy implications for maintaining nuclear stability during crises.KEYWORDS: War in Ukrainenuclear revolutiondeterrenceemboldenmentnuclear weapons AcknowledgementsThe author thanks the two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments and suggestions on an earlier draft of this article.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).","PeriodicalId":46729,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Security Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135926487","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Letting sleeping bears lie: Ukraine’s cautious approach to uncertainty before the war 放下沉睡的熊:乌克兰在战前对不确定性的谨慎态度

1区社会学

Contemporary Security Policy Pub Date : 2023-09-21 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2023.2257966

Samuel M. Seitz

引用次数: 2

Emulating underdogs: Tactical drones in the Russia-Ukraine war 模仿弱者:俄乌战争中的战术无人机

1区社会学

Contemporary Security Policy Pub Date : 2023-09-21 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2023.2257964

Kerry Chávez, Ori Swed

{"title":"Emulating underdogs: Tactical drones in the Russia-Ukraine war","authors":"Kerry Chávez, Ori Swed","doi":"10.1080/13523260.2023.2257964","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2023.2257964","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACTEarly studies on state drone proliferation argued that it would be temperate, constrained by high financial, technical, and infrastructural requisites and fielded according to the logic of scarce, exquisite airpower. While this rationale has held for limited conflicts, the high attrition and massive demand of a total war compelled strong standing armies to follow a different model of adoption: emulating weaker violent nonstate actors leveraging low-cost commercial platforms. The Russia-Ukraine war has captured this trend. Despite earlier expectations of armies maintaining advanced airpower for strategic ends, underdog Ukraine, followed by Russia have developed heavy reliance on commercial drone technologies for tactical aims. Framing this in military and battlefield innovation literature and drawing on studies on commercial drone use among violent nonstate actors, we argue that this constitutes a new trajectory involving mixed military arsenals enhanced with dual-use commercial platforms.KEYWORDS: Dronesunmanned aerial vehiclesinterstate conflictmilitary innovationmodern warfare Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 Islamic State is a prime example, but certainly not the only one. Many VNSAs from Houthi rebels, Burmese resistors, Syrian fighters, African insurgents, and Mexican cartels use commercial drones in one, some, or all the ways listed to advance their agendas.","PeriodicalId":46729,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Security Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136102036","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Farewell by the outgoing editor: Publishing research from the Paris attacks to the war against Ukraine 即将卸任的编辑告别:出版从巴黎袭击到乌克兰战争的研究报告

1区社会学

Contemporary Security Policy Pub Date : 2023-09-20 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2023.2254597

Hylke Dijkstra

引用次数: 0

Roots of Ukrainian resilience and the agency of Ukrainian society before and after Russia’s full-scale invasion 乌克兰复原力的根源和俄罗斯全面入侵前后乌克兰社会的机构

1区社会学

Contemporary Security Policy Pub Date : 2023-09-20 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2023.2258620

Anastasiia Kudlenko

引用次数: 3

Remember Kabul? Reputation, strategic contexts, and American credibility after the Afghanistan withdrawal 还记得喀布尔吗？阿富汗撤军后的声誉、战略背景和美国信誉

IF 5.9 1区社会学

Contemporary Security Policy Pub Date : 2023-09-05 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2023.2253406

D.G. Kim, J. Byun, Jiyoung Ko

引用次数: 0