Letting sleeping bears lie: Ukraine’s cautious approach to uncertainty before the war

International relations theory has long suggested that uncertainty during militarized crises pushes states to adopt escalatory behavior. However, the leadup to the Russo-Ukrainian War challenges this view, with Kyiv downplaying the risk of conflict and adopting a cautious foreign policy. I argue that Ukrainian behavior in the leadup to the war demonstrates the need to disaggregate between types of uncertainty. While uncertainty over an adversary’s intentions and capabilities can push a state to adopt escalatory behavior, uncertainty regarding a potential adversary’s military strategy and regarding the level of support it can expect from third parties incentivizes a state to assume a more cautious posture. The piece concludes with a reflection on disciplinary blind spots regarding the impact of uncertainty on state decision-making and offers suggestions for overcoming them.