{"title":"Cash, Risk, and Return: Decoding Precautionary Motives","authors":"Zhilu Lin, Yucong Liu, Suyan Zheng","doi":"10.1111/irfi.70052","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/irfi.70052","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We study the relationship between corporate cash holdings and expected stock returns through the lens of precautionary savings. Building on Palazzo, which predicts that firms more exposed to aggregate risk hold more cash and earn higher returns, we introduce a forward-looking measure—Cash-to-Market Equity (Cash-to-ME). Unlike the traditional Cash-to-Assets ratio, Cash-to-ME consistently predicts cross-sectional returns. The premium is conditional, concentrated among small and R&D-intensive firms facing financing frictions. In R&D firms, it is largely subsumed by R&D-to-ME, consistent with cash serving as a buffer for innovation. In non-R&D firms, cash-to-ME overlaps with book-to-market and cash-flow-to-price, reflecting value-like precautionary savings. Empirical tests show that the premium strengthens with cash-flow betas and low profitability, and that cash-rich firms gradually deploy reserves when constrained. These findings extend Palazzo's framework by providing long-horizon empirical validation and establishing Cash-to-ME as a priced proxy for precautionary savings.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46664,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Finance","volume":"25 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145625986","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Inflation Uncertainty, Macroprudential Regulations, and Bank Stability: Some Evidence From Emerging Economies","authors":"Minghua Chen, Xueming Qin, Ji Wu, Yao Yao","doi":"10.1111/irfi.70051","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/irfi.70051","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study examines the impact of inflation uncertainty on bank stability in the context of macroprudential regulations being increasingly adopted across countries. Utilizing a dataset of over 1600 banks in 33 emerging economies from 2000 to 2018, we find a negative relationship between inflation uncertainty and bank stability, indicating that higher inflation uncertainty significantly increases bank risk. However, our analysis reveals that tightened macroprudential regulations can effectively counteract this adverse influence, enhancing bank stability during periods of inflation uncertainty. These findings are consistent across a series of robustness tests, including alternative variable measurements, sensitivity analyses, and econometric approaches. Moreover, our results highlight the differential effectiveness of various macroprudential instruments. Specifically, regulations involving reserve requirements, asset-based instruments, and capital buffers demonstrate more pronounced effects in mitigating the impact of inflation uncertainty on bank stability.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46664,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Finance","volume":"25 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145626040","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Population Aging and the Nexus Between Financial Development and Wealth Inequality","authors":"Dong-Hyeon Kim, Shu-Chin Lin, Peiyao Liu","doi":"10.1111/irfi.70048","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/irfi.70048","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Wealth is increasingly concentrated at the top, with financial development often cited as a key driver. As populations age, it is crucial to understand how aging reshapes the link between financial development and wealth inequality. Using a cross-country panel, we find that while financial development generally reduces wealth inequality, its effect may weaken or even reverse when population aging exceeds a threshold. Pathway analysis shows that saving and entrepreneurship mediate these effects. Financial development may dampen them, but aging can moderate or reverse this impact. These findings underscore the importance of demographics in shaping the distributional consequences of financial development.</p>","PeriodicalId":46664,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Finance","volume":"25 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/irfi.70048","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145521583","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Quote Limits Rule and Stock Market Efficiency: Evidence From a Regression Discontinuity Design","authors":"Dayong Lv, Yaping Zhou, Yan Jiang","doi":"10.1111/irfi.70047","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/irfi.70047","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>On April 10, 2023, China's Main Board stock market implemented a new quote limits rule, restricting the range of permissible order prices. Utilizing a regression discontinuity design (RDD), this study investigates the causal effect of this rule on stock market efficiency. We find that the rule leads to a significant reduction in pricing errors, indicating improved market efficiency. In addition, the rule is associated with a decrease in medium-sized orders, fewer large price jumps, and a lower probability of end-of-day manipulation, suggesting that the rule improves market efficiency primarily by constraining manipulative trading activities from financially advantaged investors (e.g., institutional investors). Consistent with this manipulation-curbing explanation, the rule's positive impact is more pronounced for small-capitalization and low-liquidity stocks, which are typically more vulnerable to price manipulation. Our findings provide robust causal evidence on the efficacy of quote limits in mitigating stock price manipulation and offer valuable regulatory insights for emerging markets.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46664,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Finance","volume":"25 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145469763","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Financial Technology and Employment Profiles: Evidence From Financial Firms in Taiwan","authors":"Chih-Hai Yang, Cheng-Jen Huang","doi":"10.1111/irfi.70045","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/irfi.70045","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Whether and how financial technology (Fintech) affects employment and the composition of financial firms is a crucial emerging issue. This study examines the impact of Fintech on financial firms' employee profiles in Taiwan. Based on a panel dataset of financial firms for 2012–2020, in combination with firms' granted Fintech patents, empirical estimations reveal no significant job-creating or job-destroying effect of Fintech. In addition, non-Fintech patents have no significant association with employment. Notably, separating Fintech patents into different types, high-novelty patents, and inventions alters financial firms' workforce composition. This leads financial firms to hire an increased share of postgraduate-educated workers. A battery of robustness checks confirms these findings.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46664,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Finance","volume":"25 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145407156","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Dialect Diversity, Uncertainty and Corporate Investment Efficiency","authors":"Lingtian Bu, Meng Miao, Xingjian Wang","doi":"10.1111/irfi.70043","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/irfi.70043","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This research empirically examines how dialect diversity influences corporate investment efficiency under different levels of economic policy uncertainty (EPU). Our findings reveal that local dialect diversity enhances investment efficiency during stable periods, but this advantage significantly <i>diminishes</i> under high EPU. This reduction primarily arises from underinvestment and overly cautious decision-making by fragmented management during periods of turmoil. Further analysis indicates that this decline is exacerbated by stronger internal governance, which emphasizes checks and balances, and mitigated by stronger external governance, which focuses on supervisory power. Our findings remain robust when adopting alternative measures of key variables and utilizing topography as an instrumental variable.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46664,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Finance","volume":"25 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145407155","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Son Duy Pham, Pranjal Srivastava, Thao Thac Thanh Nguyen
{"title":"Oil Price Volatility and Tail Risk Dynamics in the Indian Stock Market: Insights From the CAViaR and TVP-VAR Models","authors":"Son Duy Pham, Pranjal Srivastava, Thao Thac Thanh Nguyen","doi":"10.1111/irfi.70044","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/irfi.70044","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study examines tail risk transmission across Indian stock sectors, employing the conditional autoregressive value-at-risk (CAViaR) model and time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) methodology. We uncover substantial interconnectedness, with total connectedness indices (TCIs) for both negative and positive tail risks reflecting significant inter-sectoral dependency. Analysis highlights symmetrical tail risk transmission across sectors and identifies consumer discretionary, financial services, and industrials as pivotal in risk distribution. Crude oil volatility is pinpointed as a key factor influencing negative tail risk connectedness, notably during geopolitical upheavals. The results emphasize the constrained potential for sectoral diversification in mitigating systemic risks, advocating for advanced risk management practices and diversified investment portfolios.</p>","PeriodicalId":46664,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Finance","volume":"25 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/irfi.70044","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145406925","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Domenico Tarzia, Daniel Sungyeon Kim, Srinivasan Selvam
{"title":"Controlling Shareholders and Innovation: Evidence From Trademark Registrations","authors":"Domenico Tarzia, Daniel Sungyeon Kim, Srinivasan Selvam","doi":"10.1111/irfi.70046","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/irfi.70046","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We examine how controlling shareholders influence corporate innovation, using trademark registration data from Chinese listed firms between 2003 and 2020. We find that the effect of control depends on the nature of the controlling entity: in state-owned enterprises (SOEs), government control is associated with significantly lower levels of innovation output, whereas in non-SOEs, greater authoritative power of the controlling shareholder is positively associated with innovation. Our findings suggest that institutional investors may help mitigate agency problems related to innovation in SOEs, although their role is limited in non-SOEs. Additional analyses reveal that trademarks are positively linked to future firm performance and that controlling shareholder authority is positively associated with innovation efficiency. Our findings underscore the importance of ownership structure in shaping firms' innovation strategies and outcomes.</p>","PeriodicalId":46664,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Finance","volume":"25 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/irfi.70046","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145406926","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Contrast effects: The phantom of an analyst's latest earnings forecasts","authors":"Huan Cai, Xiaodi Zhang, Jie Zheng","doi":"10.1111/irfi.70041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/irfi.70041","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Psychology research on contrast effects suggests that information from a previous decision may be compared with the information of the current task. We document a new stylized fact that an analyst's current annual earnings forecast error of one firm is negatively correlated with her latest forecast revision of another firm. We tease out contrast effects as the main driving force of this negative relationship by excluding other potential mechanisms such as firms' information environment and analyst constraints. We show that variables which may influence analysts' retrieval of past experiences have significant impacts on the magnitude of contrast effects, as predicted by the memory-based valuation model.</p>","PeriodicalId":46664,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Finance","volume":"25 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145271990","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"News about biodiversity risk and excess value of diversification","authors":"Amanjot Singh","doi":"10.1111/irfi.70042","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/irfi.70042","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study investigates the excess value implications of news about biodiversity risk for investors of diversified firms using a sample of 1019 US firms from 2001 to 2023. In a given year, more positive news about biodiversity risk increases the value of diversified firms relative to a benchmark portfolio of single-segment firms, especially for large-diversified firms. This diversification premium effect, that is, the excess value of diversified firms, in response to positive news about biodiversity risk, is non-linear, robust to several alternative specifications, and exists regardless of internal capital market efficiency, number of business segments, excess net income, and the climate change exposure of diversified firms. Our study highlights the potent role of diversified firms in exploiting biodiversity protection-related investment opportunities, as investors attach a relative premium to such firms.</p>","PeriodicalId":46664,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Finance","volume":"25 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145228053","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}