Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics最新文献_第6页

Forecasting container throughput of major Asian ports using the Prophet and hybrid time series models 利用Prophet和混合时间序列模型预测亚洲主要港口的集装箱吞吐量

IF 3.1

Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2023.02.004

Ziaul Haque Munim , Cemile Solak Fiskin , Bikram Nepal , Mohammed Mojahid Hossain Chowdhury

{"title":"Forecasting container throughput of major Asian ports using the Prophet and hybrid time series models","authors":"Ziaul Haque Munim , Cemile Solak Fiskin , Bikram Nepal , Mohammed Mojahid Hossain Chowdhury","doi":"10.1016/j.ajsl.2023.02.004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajsl.2023.02.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Forecasting container throughput is critical for improved port planning, operations, and investment strategies. Reliability of forecasting methods need to be ensured before utilizing their outcomes in decision making. This study compares forecasting performances of various time series methods, namely autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA), Holt-Winter's Exponential Smoothing (HWES), and the Prophet model. Since forecast combinations can improve performance, simple and weighted combinations of ARIMA, SARIMA and HWES have been explored, too. Monthly container throughput data of port of Shanghai, Busan, and Nagoya are used. The Prophet model outperforms others in the in-sample forecasting, while combined models outperform others in the out-sample forecasting. Due to the observed differences between the in-sample and out-sample forecast accuracy measures, this study proposes a forecast performance metric consistency check approach for informed real-world applications of forecasting models in port management decision-making.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46505,"journal":{"name":"Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics","volume":"39 2","pages":"Pages 67-77"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49793093","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Modeling the impact of logistic performance, economic features, and demographic factors of countries on the seaborne trade 模拟各国物流绩效、经济特征和人口因素对海运贸易的影响

IF 3.1

Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2023.02.003

Alireza Mahpour , Iman Farzin , Amirhossein Baghestani , Sina Ashouri , Zahra Javadi , Latifeh Asgari

{"title":"Modeling the impact of logistic performance, economic features, and demographic factors of countries on the seaborne trade","authors":"Alireza Mahpour , Iman Farzin , Amirhossein Baghestani , Sina Ashouri , Zahra Javadi , Latifeh Asgari","doi":"10.1016/j.ajsl.2023.02.003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajsl.2023.02.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The shipping industry continues to have strong growth prospects due to increased efficiency and economic liberalization. Through seaborne trade, port infrastructure and logistics impact economic growth in developing countries. This makes studying the factors affecting seaborne trade for such countries particularly important. The current paper aims at analyzing the impact of logistics, economic, and demographic variables on seaborne commodity trade between Qatar, Oman, Turkey, Pakistan, and Iran. Employing a gravity model, results show that a 1% improvement in Logistics Performance Index (LPI) consignments in the importing country can result in a 0.8% increase in total trade flows. Based on results, a 1% increase in the tariff rate reduces the value of trade by 0.4%. Furthermore, a 0.5% increase in trade is caused by the increase in population of the destination country. A sensitivity analysis also shows that logistics variables are more significant than economic and demographic variables. It can be concluded that trade policymakers in developing countries can get better results by improving logistics performance and investing on logistics infrastructure leads to more trade.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46505,"journal":{"name":"Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics","volume":"39 2","pages":"Pages 60-66"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49793096","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Containership new-building orders and freight rate shocks: A “wait and see” perspective 集装箱船新造船订单和运价冲击:“观望”观点

IF 3.1

Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2023.01.001

Nektarios A. Michail , Konstantinos D. Melas

引用次数: 3

Performance efficiency assessment of Vietnamese ports: An application of Delphi with Kamet principles and DEA model 越南港口绩效效率评价:基于德尔菲卡梅原理和DEA模型的应用

IF 3.1

Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2022.10.002

Thi Nhu-Mai Nong

{"title":"Performance efficiency assessment of Vietnamese ports: An application of Delphi with Kamet principles and DEA model","authors":"Thi Nhu-Mai Nong","doi":"10.1016/j.ajsl.2022.10.002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajsl.2022.10.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Ports form important links in the overall trade chain and act as driving forces for marine economic development. However, the operation of ports also has certain difficulties and challenges that port operators need to overcome. As such, this research aims to measure the performance efficiency of 22 ports listed in the stock market in Vietnam – a developing country with notable progress and role in global seaborne transport. The hybrid method of Delphi technique with KAMET principle and input and output – oriented DEA method was applied to solve the problem of efficiency assessment. The Delphi technique with KAMET principle was used to determine the efficiency evaluation criteria whilst the input and output – oriented DEA was employed to measure the efficiency. The findings show that capital, operation expenses, labour, port area, quay length, depth, revenue, and cargo throughputs are considered as input and output variables in the port efficiency evaluation. Additionally, it is also concluded in the research that scale and management skills are the dominant source of efficiency and Vietnamese ports show rather high management skills. Moreover, comprehensive and multi-variable assessment of port system may bring lots of benefits not only to the decision-making units but also the maritime authorities within constraint funds.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46505,"journal":{"name":"Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics","volume":"39 1","pages":"Pages 1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49871858","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 5

The impacts of demand and supply shocks in the dry bulk shipping market 供需冲击对干散货航运市场的影响

IF 3.1

Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2022.10.004

Sunghwa Park , Hyunsok Kim , Janghan Kwon

{"title":"The impacts of demand and supply shocks in the dry bulk shipping market","authors":"Sunghwa Park , Hyunsok Kim , Janghan Kwon","doi":"10.1016/j.ajsl.2022.10.004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajsl.2022.10.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The freight rate is a representative variable in the shipping market and is characterized by a cyclical relationship. Even though downturns in the shipping market, such as the shipping industry recession in the 1980s, the global financial crisis in 2008 and COVID-19 crisis in 2020, recur, few studies have analyzed the dynamic relationship between supply and demand in terms of its effect on freight rates. Thus, this study classifies the factors affecting fluctuations in dry cargo freight rates into demand, supply, and freight rate specific demand factors, which play the most important role in managing risk in the shipping market. Based on the recursive structural vector autoregressive (recursive SVAR) model, we analyze the historical contributions of the effects of each factor across different time periods. Two main findings are summarized as follows: first, we identify the dynamic relationship between factors affecting BDI in the shipping market, and reveal that the magnitude and direction of factors are different. Second, we verify that in an extreme situation in which freight rates exceed the normal range, the market is overheated, and freight rates are therefore determined by the freight rate specific demand of market participants rather than by the actual supply and demand.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46505,"journal":{"name":"Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics","volume":"39 1","pages":"Pages 13-22"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49894027","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Study on improvement in logistics industry in Gangwon province: Focusing on Yangyang International Airport 江原道物流产业发展研究——以阳阳国际机场为例

IF 3.1

Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2022.11.001

Woo Chul Ahn

引用次数: 0

Operational performance model for Indian container terminals using qualitative comparative analysis 采用定性比较分析的印度集装箱码头运营绩效模型

IF 3.1

Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2022.08.001

VPS Nihar Nanyam , Kumar Neeraj Jha

{"title":"Operational performance model for Indian container terminals using qualitative comparative analysis","authors":"VPS Nihar Nanyam , Kumar Neeraj Jha","doi":"10.1016/j.ajsl.2022.08.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ajsl.2022.08.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Trend forecasting shows that Indian container terminals will handle 25 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) by 2025. However, improving operational performance is the best strategy to achieve this target. Many factors have adversely affected the Indian container terminal's operational performance despite the fact that the Indian government has undertaken several initiatives. This study identifies factors and interactive effects of the factors influencing the operational performance of Indian container terminals. A conceptual model is developed using fuzzy qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) encompassing the successful factors. The conceptual model developed through QCA includes the physical characteristics, driving factors, and challenges. This study reveals the combined and individual effects of the identified factors. The results show that the most common factors are the quay infrastructure, yard infrastructure, infrastructure up-gradation, system initiatives, reefer systems, and logistics advantage. This study adds to the existing literature regarding the Indian container terminals' performance and supports the decision-makers in improving the operational performance of container terminals.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46505,"journal":{"name":"Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics","volume":"38 4","pages":"Pages 197-206"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2092521222000268/pdfft?md5=cb97c60883d297cf4c5591ce0d385490&pid=1-s2.0-S2092521222000268-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123708602","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

The central tendency of the seaport-fulcrum supply chain risk in Indonesia using a rough set 使用粗糙集分析印尼海港支点供应链风险的集中趋势

IF 3.1

Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2022.08.003

Muhammad Reza Do. Bagus , Shinya Hanaoka

{"title":"The central tendency of the seaport-fulcrum supply chain risk in Indonesia using a rough set","authors":"Muhammad Reza Do. Bagus , Shinya Hanaoka","doi":"10.1016/j.ajsl.2022.08.003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajsl.2022.08.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Seaports are crucial in modern global supply chain networks and systems, exerting a significant impact on the ecological area's economy. Supply chain entities play a substantial integration role, and potential threats at seaports harm chain continuity. This study proposes a rough set-based genetic algorithm, to investigate the central tendency in seaport risk implied by supply chain threats through a questionnaire evaluation. We also employ the risk score to observe the level of clarity in terms of risk probability, showing that the lower the score an attribute obtains, the more likely it is that seaport risk implies supply chain disruption. We deploy 24 risk attributes, which threaten the proposed ten-dimensional factors, based on their risk scores. The results show that the lack of storage risk planning, low punctuality of delivery goods, shortage of port capacity, congestion in waterways, and the lack of distribution risk planning, are the \"best five\" of the seaport-fulcrum supply chain risk, in the context of Indonesian seaport firms. These identified risk attributes not only assist seaport managers to identify potential risk-associated deficiencies of supply chain disruption but also enhance their ability to determine resilience to manage supply chain problems.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46505,"journal":{"name":"Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics","volume":"38 4","pages":"Pages 222-233"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2092521222000281/pdfft?md5=806fb20089110a002fcc0d0fd8773cda&pid=1-s2.0-S2092521222000281-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91744632","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

A systematic literature review on humanitarian logistics using network analysis and topic modeling 运用网络分析和主题建模对人道主义物流进行系统的文献综述

IF 3.1

Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2022.10.003

Jin Ju Kim , Hyunmi Jang , Saeyeon Roh

{"title":"A systematic literature review on humanitarian logistics using network analysis and topic modeling","authors":"Jin Ju Kim , Hyunmi Jang , Saeyeon Roh","doi":"10.1016/j.ajsl.2022.10.003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajsl.2022.10.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The aim of this paper is to conduct a systematic literature review to understand the research trends, identify area of improvements and recommend the future research direction in humanitarian relief logistics (HRL). Using Netminer 4.0, keyword network analysis, keyword frequency analysis, and topic modeling analysis were undertaken. As a result, it has been identified that the number of studies on HRL continuously increased since it mounted in the mid-2010s, with the main issues changing by period. Keyword network analysis and keyword frequency analysis discovered that establishment of the HRL identity and disaster response, preparation and recovery were the main issues from 2005 to 2009. Whereas followed by education and practical logistics flow (2010 – 2014) and provision and coordination (2015 – 2019) to be the main focused area of research. Through topic modeling analysis, nine topics (<em>preparation, coordination, stakeholders, sustainable development, facilities location, recovery, supplying and sourcing, emergent response, transportation, supplying and sourcing</em>) were extracted. <em>Facilities location</em> was the most frequent topic that studied in the number of papers. Meanwhile, <em>recovery, preparation, stakeholders,</em> and <em>emergent response</em> showed downward trends but <em>facilities location, coordination,</em> and <em>supplying and sourcing</em> showing upward. This study is significant in the sense that it suggests research trends in different approach using keyword network analysis, keyword frequency analysis, network analysis and topic modeling which are one of the first attempts in research trend analysis in HRL field. This study will support HRL studies by understanding macroscopic and comprehensive way and set as a steppingstone for future research direction.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46505,"journal":{"name":"Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics","volume":"38 4","pages":"Pages 263-278"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2092521222000323/pdfft?md5=75f23ab72c038aba1339b2fbd82ae1ed&pid=1-s2.0-S2092521222000323-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91744631","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 22

Transborder logistics network design for agricultural product transportation in the Greater Mekong Subregion 大湄公河次区域农产品运输跨境物流网络设计

IF 3.1

Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2022.10.001

Natthapong Nanthasamroeng , Surajet Khonjun , Thanatkij Srichok , Rapeepan Pitakaso , Raknoi Akkararungroeungkul , Ganokgarn Jirasirilerd , Sarinya Sirisan

{"title":"Transborder logistics network design for agricultural product transportation in the Greater Mekong Subregion","authors":"Natthapong Nanthasamroeng , Surajet Khonjun , Thanatkij Srichok , Rapeepan Pitakaso , Raknoi Akkararungroeungkul , Ganokgarn Jirasirilerd , Sarinya Sirisan","doi":"10.1016/j.ajsl.2022.10.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ajsl.2022.10.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This research aimed to design a transportation model for the international trade of agricultural products between Thailand, Laos, and Cambodia, known as the Great Mekong Subregion (GMS). Agricultural products are transported from a farmers’ cooperative to a foreign end market. The mathematical models GA, DE, and VaNSAS were developed to determine the optimal mode of transportation. The objectives of the proposed methods are to (1) maximize the total profit for the entire agricultural chain and (2) minimize the makespan or the arrival time of the containers to the end market in order to maintain the freshness of the agricultural product. The computational result shows that VaNSAS produces a 100 % optimal solution for small-size problem instances, while DE and GA produce a 63.63 % and 72.72 % optimal solution, respectively. For large-size problem instances, VaNSAS shows a profit that is higher than that of DE and GA by 10.53 % and 8.96 %, respectively, while it shows a makespan that is lower by 9.57 % and 7.20 %, respectively.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46505,"journal":{"name":"Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics","volume":"38 4","pages":"Pages 245-262"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S209252122200030X/pdfft?md5=cb92dd562dd62b4c6d7c1ba994a6b019&pid=1-s2.0-S209252122200030X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124497279","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1