Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy最新文献

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Occupational Structure Change in a Chinese Metropolitan Region: Case Study of the Pearl River Delta 中国都市圈职业结构变迁:以珠江三角洲为例
IF 3.1 4区 社会学
Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy Pub Date : 2026-09-04 DOI: 10.1007/s12061-026-09980-3
Zeyu Zhang, Guangzhong Cao
{"title":"Occupational Structure Change in a Chinese Metropolitan Region: Case Study of the Pearl River Delta","authors":"Zeyu Zhang,&nbsp;Guangzhong Cao","doi":"10.1007/s12061-026-09980-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12061-026-09980-3","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This research looks into the pattern and mechanism of occupational structure change of the Pearl River Delta, China, from 2000 to 2020, testing the polarization and professionalization hypothesis of western cities in a developing country on a regional scale. It is found that the region had a polarizing trend and its cities followed a trajectory from industrialization, proletarianization to polarization. Centers of the region tended to polarize with faster growth in the high-skilled, while the sub-centers polarized with faster growth in the low-skilled occupations, and the peripheries displayed industrialization and proletarianization in early years and shifted to polarization in the recent decade. Industrial policies promoting advanced manufacturing and services enhanced growth of the high-skilled occupations. Large-scale domestic migration to the region fueled the growth of low-skilled occupations, but also acted as important sources of talents. Functional division and difference in development stage between the centers, sub-centers and peripheries led to the heterogeneity in occupational restructuring patterns in the region. This research complements to the debate on occupational structural changes by providing evidence from the “Global South”, proposing differences between central and peripheral cities and a trajectory of occupational change covering different stages of development, and further interpreting how localized factors shaped the occupational restructuring process.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46392,"journal":{"name":"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy","volume":"19 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148926436","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Nonlinear and Interaction Effects of the Built Environment on Bus Travel Behavior among People with Disabilities: Evidence from Wuhan, China 建成环境对残疾人公交出行行为的非线性交互影响——来自武汉的证据
IF 3.1 4区 社会学
Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy Pub Date : 2026-09-03 DOI: 10.1007/s12061-026-09895-z
Shanzhu Liu, Chengxi Wu, Weiming Zhang, Xuexin Yan
{"title":"Nonlinear and Interaction Effects of the Built Environment on Bus Travel Behavior among People with Disabilities: Evidence from Wuhan, China","authors":"Shanzhu Liu,&nbsp;Chengxi Wu,&nbsp;Weiming Zhang,&nbsp;Xuexin Yan","doi":"10.1007/s12061-026-09895-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12061-026-09895-z","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>People with disabilities (PWDs) may exhibit distinctive spatiotemporal patterns of bus travel because of their specific physical conditions and travel preferences, which may in turn lead to different associations with the built environment compared with people without disabilities. However, these differences have received limited scholarly attention. This study addresses this gap by comparing the bus travel behaviors of people with and without disabilities in Wuhan, China. The results show that PWDs have significantly higher bus travel frequencies than people without disabilities on both weekdays (3.58 vs. 2.86 trips) and weekends (3.32 vs. 2.63 trips). In terms of spatial distribution, bus trips made by PWDs are more concentrated in central urban areas, whereas those made by people without disabilities are more clustered around transport hubs and employment centers. Further analysis using XGBoost and SHAP reveals significant heterogeneity in the effects of the built environment on bus ridership between the two groups. For PWDs, the three most important factors influencing bus ridership on weekday are road density (14.71%), plot ratio (12.13%), and distance to the city center (8.98%); while the importance of distance to the city center increases to 11.63% on weekends. In addition, all built environment variables exhibit nonlinear relationships with bus ridership and significant threshold effects. For example, road density shows a significantly positive effect on bus ridership among PWDs only when it exceeds 7.5 km/km<sup>2</sup> within the station catchment area. Moreover, significant interaction effects are observed. For instance, a plot ratio above 3.0 combined with less than 10 km from the sub-city center produces a positive interaction effect on weekday bus use among PWDs. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the spatiotemporal travel behaviors of PWDs and provide valuable insights for the development of more inclusive and accessible transportation policies.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46392,"journal":{"name":"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy","volume":"19 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148926342","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
From Individuals to Industries: Mobile Signal Data Reveals Guangzhou’s Offline Market Resilience during the COVID-19 Pandemic 从个人到行业:移动信号数据揭示广州在COVID-19大流行期间的线下市场弹性
IF 3.1 4区 社会学
Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy Pub Date : 2026-09-03 DOI: 10.1007/s12061-026-09994-x
Shan Li, Wanjun Lu, Jintang Chen, Jiarong Zeng, Luyao Yang, Minsheng Li, Fengdeng Wan, Yongheng Feng, Feng Gao
{"title":"From Individuals to Industries: Mobile Signal Data Reveals Guangzhou’s Offline Market Resilience during the COVID-19 Pandemic","authors":"Shan Li,&nbsp;Wanjun Lu,&nbsp;Jintang Chen,&nbsp;Jiarong Zeng,&nbsp;Luyao Yang,&nbsp;Minsheng Li,&nbsp;Fengdeng Wan,&nbsp;Yongheng Feng,&nbsp;Feng Gao","doi":"10.1007/s12061-026-09994-x","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12061-026-09994-x","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Resilience research is a critical component in achieving Sustainable Development Goals, and its importance has become increasingly evident against the backdrop of complex and volatile external shocks. The existing literature predominantly focuses on the resilience of specific regions and industries, while market resilience, which connects the production and consumption sides, receives relatively insufficient attention. The “Wholesale and Retail Industries”, encompassing both corporate manufacturing and individual consumption, constitute a critical window for observing market resilience. Under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, individual offline visitation can effectively reflect market resilience in specific spaces. Therefore, this study develops an analytical framework based on Mobile Signaling Data to observe market resilience at a fine-grained scale through individual activity. Focusing on Guangzhou, we decode the spatiotemporal patterns of market resilience in the “Wholesale and Retail Industries” under the impact of the COVID-19 shock. Key findings include: (1) The “retail industry” outperforms the “wholesale industry” in both market resistance (− 0.37 vs. −0.41) and market recovery (66% vs. 61%), with “supermarkets” and “shopping centers” showing the highest adaptability. Within the “wholesale industry”, “food and beverages” and “construction materials” are robust. (2) The market resilience of “Wholesale and Retail Industries” exhibits a progressive increase from the urban core to peripheral areas. (3) Government policies, market dynamics, and individual behaviors jointly influence the differentiation of “Wholesale and Retail Industries” market resilience. This study advances a data-driven understanding of market resilience, informing sector-differentiated industrial policies and sustainable revitalization of offline economic ecosystems.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46392,"journal":{"name":"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy","volume":"19 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148926544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Spatiotemporal Analysis of Emotional Trajectories With Electrodermal Activity and Audio: A Case Study in Fanta Oriental Heritage Theme Park 基于皮肤电活动和音频的情绪轨迹时空分析——以芬达东方遗产主题公园为例
IF 3.1 4区 社会学
Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy Pub Date : 2026-09-02 DOI: 10.1007/s12061-026-09999-6
Wei Jiang, Jing Mao, Zongxin Quan, Jingjing Zhao, Dongsong Xu, Yi Long, Xiaoqing Song
{"title":"Spatiotemporal Analysis of Emotional Trajectories With Electrodermal Activity and Audio: A Case Study in Fanta Oriental Heritage Theme Park","authors":"Wei Jiang,&nbsp;Jing Mao,&nbsp;Zongxin Quan,&nbsp;Jingjing Zhao,&nbsp;Dongsong Xu,&nbsp;Yi Long,&nbsp;Xiaoqing Song","doi":"10.1007/s12061-026-09999-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12061-026-09999-6","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Exploring the spatial variation of emotion has attracted increasing attention in recent years. However, few scholarly attempts have focused on the spatiotemporal process of emotional dynamics. This study aimed to depict continuous and fine-grained human emotions and investigate the patterns of emotional changes from a spatiotemporal perspective. Electrodermal activity (EDA), audio and GPS data were collected from 256 volunteers in the Fanta Oriental Heritage theme park. We developed an integrated framework that combines multimodal emotion recognition, emotional trajectory construction, and pattern mining to examine affective dynamics in a theme park environment. The emotional trajectories were constructed by matching emotional status and GPS. With the support of the hierarchical clustering, the similarities among the emotional trajectories were investigated. Compared with relying solely on single-modal data, our recognition method exhibited significant improvement by fusing EDA and audio, achieving a four-class classification accuracy of more than 0.68. Our results demonstrated that the trajectory model can represent the continuous spatiotemporal changes of minute-by-minute emotional statuses effectively. Further, we have discovered three patterns from emotional trajectories within the theme park. The “Peak-decrease” pattern is sensitive to the exciting experiences and includes most young individuals and females. All tourism projects can stimulate the emotion of individuals belong to the “High-low” pattern significantly. The “Stable-fluctuation” pattern showed the stable emotional dynamic and contained half of the individuals older than 40. This work provides new insights into the fine-grained human emotional changes to enrich the spatiotemporal theories of human emotions, and highlights the potential applications of our findings in urban planning and experience monitoring.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46392,"journal":{"name":"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy","volume":"19 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148926461","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Artificial Intelligence and Carbon-Constrained Energy Efficiency: Direct Effects, Digital Infrastructure Thresholds, and Spatial Effects 人工智能与碳约束能源效率:直接影响、数字基础设施阈值和空间效应
IF 3.1 4区 社会学
Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy Pub Date : 2026-09-02 DOI: 10.1007/s12061-026-09986-x
Bo Xu, Ruifa Li, Gang Zou, Yingde Hu
{"title":"Artificial Intelligence and Carbon-Constrained Energy Efficiency: Direct Effects, Digital Infrastructure Thresholds, and Spatial Effects","authors":"Bo Xu,&nbsp;Ruifa Li,&nbsp;Gang Zou,&nbsp;Yingde Hu","doi":"10.1007/s12061-026-09986-x","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12061-026-09986-x","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Artificial intelligence is reshaping urban energy systems at an unprecedented pace, yet its net contribution to carbon-constrained energy efficiency remains an unsettled empirical question. The mechanisms of impact, the role of digital infrastructure, and the spatial patterns of energy savings constitute a critical but underexamined research frontier. Drawing on panel data from 297 Chinese prefecture-level cities over 2011–2024, we employ a parallel multiple mediation model, a panel threshold model, and a spatial Durbin model within a unified framework. We present our main findings as follows. First, AI development exerts a positive effect on carbon-constrained energy efficiency. Raising AI_level by one standard deviation improves carbon-constrained energy efficiency by roughly 10.3% of the sample mean. Second, industrial upgrading and green innovation together explain 38.2% of the total effect, with the remaining 61.8% attributed to the direct effect of AI. Third, digital infrastructure exerts a single threshold effect. The positive association between AI and energy efficiency is stronger in cities with more developed digital infrastructure. Fourth, AI development contributes to energy efficiency gains in neighboring cities via spatial spillovers, yet the size of these indirect effects is modest. The spatial distribution of AI exhibits high persistence, with annual transition probabilities below 4%. Fifth, the positive association is heterogeneous across regions, policy environments, and socioeconomic conditions. This study advances the literature by quantifying the relative importance of direct versus indirect pathways, identifying the threshold role of digital infrastructure, and documenting the spatial persistence and limited spillovers of AI development. These findings offer implications for differentiated regional strategies and infrastructure investment priorities.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46392,"journal":{"name":"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy","volume":"19 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148926460","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How does the Spatial Distribution of Three-Dimensional Green Volume Evolve in Urbanization? Evidence from Nanjing, China 城市化进程中三维绿地空间分布演变规律来自中国南京的证据
IF 3.1 4区 社会学
Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy Pub Date : 2026-09-01 DOI: 10.1007/s12061-026-09941-w
Shining Zhang, Yuan Zong, Ziqi Xu, Zeyang Li, Conghui Zhou
{"title":"How does the Spatial Distribution of Three-Dimensional Green Volume Evolve in Urbanization? Evidence from Nanjing, China","authors":"Shining Zhang,&nbsp;Yuan Zong,&nbsp;Ziqi Xu,&nbsp;Zeyang Li,&nbsp;Conghui Zhou","doi":"10.1007/s12061-026-09941-w","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12061-026-09941-w","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Conventional assessments of urban green space usually rely on planar indicators, which cannot fully capture changes in vegetation height, canopy volume, and layered structure during urbanization. To address this limitation, this study estimated three-dimensional green volume (3DGV) and compared its spatiotemporal evolution with two-dimensional green space (2DGS) in the main city of Nanjing from 1990 to 2020. Field-based reference samples, Landsat-derived vegetation indices, and machine-learning regression were integrated to reconstruct decadal-scale 3DGV, while 2DGS was extracted from high-resolution remote-sensing images using support vector machine classification. Spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatial regression models were then used to examine temporal changes, clustering patterns, and associations with socioeconomic, land-use, and natural-environment variables. The results show that both 3DGV and 2DGS experienced a decline–recovery trajectory and exhibited significant positive spatial autocorrelation, but their recovery magnitudes and local clustering patterns differed across phases. The two indicators shared several associated variables, yet differed in coefficient direction, statistical significance, and phase-specific patterns. Land-use variables were more closely associated with changes in 2DGS, whereas socioeconomic and natural-environment variables showed more frequent or indicator-specific associations with 3DGV in several phases. These findings indicate that 3DGV adds a structural dimension to planar green-space assessment by revealing spatially uneven changes in vegetation volume, canopy development, and layered planting structure. The combined 2DGS–3DGV framework provides an additional and complementary basis for diagnosing urban green-space change and supporting structure-oriented greening strategies in high-density cities.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46392,"journal":{"name":"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy","volume":"19 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148926698","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Beyond Single Level Explanations: a Spatial Multilevel Regression Approach to Uncovering the Determinants of Urban Running 超越单层次解释:揭示城市运行决定因素的空间多层次回归方法
IF 3.1 4区 社会学
Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy Pub Date : 2026-09-01 DOI: 10.1007/s12061-026-09914-z
Qian Wang
{"title":"Beyond Single Level Explanations: a Spatial Multilevel Regression Approach to Uncovering the Determinants of Urban Running","authors":"Qian Wang","doi":"10.1007/s12061-026-09914-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12061-026-09914-z","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Urban planning and public health policies are increasingly recognizing urban running as a key activity that reflects and shapes the livability and health of cities. Urban running is not merely an individual behavior but a spatially embedded practice influenced by both built environment characteristics and social context. To inform effective spatial planning, it is essential to move beyond single-level explanations and account for the nested social-spatial processes shaping activity patterns. This study introduces a spatial multilevel regression approach that integrates multi-source data to examine urban running across multiple spatial scales. Using running trajectory big data from the Hangzhou central districts, I construct grid level indicators to capture local activity contexts and district level measures to reflect broader structural conditions. The multilevel model explicitly tests cross-scale interactions between built environment features and sociodemographic factors, revealing that urban running patterns emerge from the interplay of local environments and broader social structures. These findings provide actionable insights for planners and policymakers, highlighting areas where interventions can promote equitable, healthy, and sustainable urban environments. More broadly, the study offers a generalizable analytical framework for understanding health-related mobility in rapidly transforming cities, demonstrating the value of moving beyond single-level approaches in spatial analysis and policy design.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46392,"journal":{"name":"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy","volume":"19 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148926696","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How Capability of Physical Activity Moderates the Non-linear Association between Greenspace and Subjective Wellbeing: Evidence Based on COPD Patients in Beijing 运动能力如何调节绿地与主观幸福感的非线性关系:基于北京慢性阻塞性肺病患者的证据
IF 3.1 4区 社会学
Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy Pub Date : 2026-09-01 DOI: 10.1007/s12061-026-09995-w
Mi Yao, Ziqiang Liu, Yuehan Sun, Hongjing Pei, Yujing Su, Guanning Jing, Jiapei Xu, Jianhua Chen, Qiaoli Su, Jiao Xu, Xue Jin, Jingyu Hao, Xueying Li, Jing Ma, Ying Wang, Changrui Ren, Shi Wei, Aimei Dong, Longfeng Wu
{"title":"How Capability of Physical Activity Moderates the Non-linear Association between Greenspace and Subjective Wellbeing: Evidence Based on COPD Patients in Beijing","authors":"Mi Yao,&nbsp;Ziqiang Liu,&nbsp;Yuehan Sun,&nbsp;Hongjing Pei,&nbsp;Yujing Su,&nbsp;Guanning Jing,&nbsp;Jiapei Xu,&nbsp;Jianhua Chen,&nbsp;Qiaoli Su,&nbsp;Jiao Xu,&nbsp;Xue Jin,&nbsp;Jingyu Hao,&nbsp;Xueying Li,&nbsp;Jing Ma,&nbsp;Ying Wang,&nbsp;Changrui Ren,&nbsp;Shi Wei,&nbsp;Aimei Dong,&nbsp;Longfeng Wu","doi":"10.1007/s12061-026-09995-w","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12061-026-09995-w","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The health impacts of urban greenspace are increasingly acknowledged, yet their relationship with subjective wellbeing may be nonlinear and conditioned by individual capacity. This study examines how capability of physical activity moderates the non-linear association between residential greenspace and health-related quality of life among 331 clinically diagnosed COPD patients in Beijing. Using objective geospatial indicators—tree canopy, total vegetation coverage, and park proximity—and validated wellbeing scores (EQ-5D), we estimated nonlinear and moderated quadratic models. Results reveal a robust U-shaped association between tree canopy and wellbeing, with the association reversing in sign beyond moderate coverage levels. In contrast, vegetation coverage showed no consistent pattern, and park distance displayed a weaker nonlinear relationship. Crucially, physical activity capacity, measured via the 1-minute sit-to-stand and 6-minute walk tests, significantly moderated both the shape and direction of the canopy–wellbeing curve. Higher activity levels flattened or inverted the curve, suggesting that wellbeing gains depend on an individual’s ability to engage with their environment. These findings highlight the importance of integrating ecological design with patient mobility needs, offering implications for precision greening in dense urban settings. Urban health strategies for vulnerable populations may benefit from tailoring greenspace interventions to match physical capacity thresholds.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46392,"journal":{"name":"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy","volume":"19 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148926699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Beyond Provincial Averages: A Spatial Diagnostic Framework for Educational Inequality in Vietnam’s National Upper Secondary Graduation Examination 超越省平均水平:越南国家高中毕业考试中教育不平等的空间诊断框架
IF 3.1 4区 社会学
Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy Pub Date : 2026-09-01 DOI: 10.1007/s12061-026-09989-8
Anh Ton Pham
{"title":"Beyond Provincial Averages: A Spatial Diagnostic Framework for Educational Inequality in Vietnam’s National Upper Secondary Graduation Examination","authors":"Anh Ton Pham","doi":"10.1007/s12061-026-09989-8","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12061-026-09989-8","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Provincial average scores are widely used to monitor educational performance, but they may obscure how inequality is distributed within and across administrative units. Using annual data for all 63 provinces in Vietnam’s national upper secondary graduation examination from 2017 to 2024, this paper develops a sequential spatial diagnostic framework for three compulsory subjects: Mathematics, Literature, and Foreign Language. The framework first evaluates the adequacy of provincial averages and then examines the spatial structure, persistence, and neighborhood-conditioned mobility of the between-province signal that remains visible at the administrative scale. Theil decomposition indicates that provincial mean scores capture only 6–18% of total examination-score inequality; the dominant 82–94% lies within provinces. This finding establishes the limits of average-based monitoring while motivating a more precise diagnosis of the provincial signal that policymakers observe and compare. The subsequent diagnostics show a clear subject-specific gradient. Mathematics displays the strongest rank stability, spatial clustering, and regime persistence; Literature is more mobile but increasingly spatially differentiated; and Foreign Language occupies an intermediate position. A 3 × 3 Spatial Markov analysis shows differences in observed transition profiles across neighborhood contexts, although estimates based on small conditional origin counts remain imprecise. The findings suggest that province-level educational monitoring would benefit from supplementary spatial diagnostics that track within-province dispersion, persistent low-performing clusters, and subject-specific mobility profiles.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46392,"journal":{"name":"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy","volume":"19 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s12061-026-09989-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148926695","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Spatial Evidence for Armed-Violence Policy: Concentration, Spatiotemporal Dependence, and Local Network Structure in Metropolitan Rio de Janeiro 武装暴力政策的空间证据:集中、时空依赖和里约热内卢大都市的地方网络结构
IF 3.1 4区 社会学
Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy Pub Date : 2026-08-29 DOI: 10.1007/s12061-026-09976-z
Valdecy Pereira, Marcio Pereira Basilio, Fatih Yigit, Elaine Aparecida Araujo
{"title":"Spatial Evidence for Armed-Violence Policy: Concentration, Spatiotemporal Dependence, and Local Network Structure in Metropolitan Rio de Janeiro","authors":"Valdecy Pereira,&nbsp;Marcio Pereira Basilio,&nbsp;Fatih Yigit,&nbsp;Elaine Aparecida Araujo","doi":"10.1007/s12061-026-09976-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12061-026-09976-z","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This article asks what event-level spatial analysis adds after the concentration of urban violence is already known. Using 2,800 geolocated and timestamped armed-violence events recorded by Crossfire (Fogo Cruzado) app across 21 municipalities in metropolitan Rio de Janeiro between December 2024 and March 2026, we separate four decision-relevant objects, persistent place burden, short-window event co-occurrence, excess space–time dependence, and model-based self-excitation. The design combines hotspot persistence screening, a 5 km/72 h event graph, shuffled-time and location-permutation benchmarks, and Hawkes point-process models. Linked pairs exceed the shuffled-time null by 27.5% (<span>(z=17.57)</span>, empirical <span>(p=0.0033)</span>), but visually strong graph fragmentation is not unusual under the spatially grounded null and attenuates sharply as thresholds widen. Persistent hotspots and temporary event communities therefore represent different policy layers rather than interchangeable maps. The former support sustained place-based prioritization; the latter can support short-run coordination only when their threshold sensitivity and provisional status are displayed. Crossfire app records are produced through a verified multi-source civic-monitoring workflow rather than passive app-location traces, although geographically uneven ascertainment remains possible and low counts in peripheral municipalities must be treated as lower bounds. The study does not identify the causal effect of any policy implemented during the observation period. Its contribution is a transferable framework for matching spatial evidence, uncertainty, and policy time horizons without reifying temporary clusters as fixed territories.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46392,"journal":{"name":"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy","volume":"19 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148838304","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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