Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy最新文献_第5页

COVID-19 and the 15-Minute City: Evolving Public Service Dynamics in Response to Pandemic Policies 2019冠状病毒病与15分钟城市：应对大流行政策的公共服务动态演变

IF 1.9 4区社会学

Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy Pub Date : 2025-07-21 DOI: 10.1007/s12061-025-09684-0

Yu Wang, Zeru Yu, Peng Zeng

{"title":"COVID-19 and the 15-Minute City: Evolving Public Service Dynamics in Response to Pandemic Policies","authors":"Yu Wang, Zeru Yu, Peng Zeng","doi":"10.1007/s12061-025-09684-0","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12061-025-09684-0","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The 15-min city model promises hyper-local accessibility to essential services, yet its resilience faces unprecedented challenges during systemic crises. This study investigates how COVID-19 pandemic policies disrupted public service dynamics in Tianjin, China—an early adopter of the 15-min city framework—through a mixed-methods approach combining policy analysis, GIS spatial mapping, and questionnaire surveys across pandemic phases. The diminished accessible ranges of a 15-min walking distance and quantity of available services were largely observed. Changes in open areas and operating hours of facilities influenced service capacity. The factors of accessibility, quantity, and capacity together caused a cascading effect of service supply alterations. The results reveal essential life and health care services were universally overwhelming demands during lockdowns, but attention needs to be paid to the vulnerabilities of groups and areas where potential demand–supply imbalances and variations may have occurred. The pandemic exposed the 15 min city model’s spatial disparities and inflexibility in service elasticity. We argue that future 15-min cities must integrate: 1) Hybrid digital-physical service delivery to maintain access during mobility restrictions, 2) Equity-centered crisis governance prioritizing high-risk areas and groups 3) Adaptive planning protocols enabling rapid conversion of spaces. Consequently, we advocate for further institutional adaptations to ensure that the existing 15-min city can effectively adapt and transform to enhance system resilience in response to epidemics or emergencies.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46392,"journal":{"name":"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy","volume":"18 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145166964","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How COVID-19 Policy Shift Affects Mental Wellbeing? Assessing the Effect Heterogeneity of Urban Water Body Exposures COVID-19政策转变如何影响心理健康？城市水体暴露影响异质性评价

IF 1.9 4区社会学

Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy Pub Date : 2025-07-21 DOI: 10.1007/s12061-025-09686-y

Longfeng Wu, Jie Zhang, Chenjie Jia, ChengHe Guan

{"title":"How COVID-19 Policy Shift Affects Mental Wellbeing? Assessing the Effect Heterogeneity of Urban Water Body Exposures","authors":"Longfeng Wu, Jie Zhang, Chenjie Jia, ChengHe Guan","doi":"10.1007/s12061-025-09686-y","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12061-025-09686-y","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>During the COVID-19 pandemic, increased exposure to water bodies positively impacted residents’ mental health in densely populated urban areas under lockdown. However, the effects during the transition from strict lockdown to reopening within this context remain understudied. This study employed a Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) with a dataset (N = 2,545) from Beijing and Shanghai to investigate the impact of the COVID containment policy on mental health proxied by Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D), self-rated happiness and health. Subgroup analyses examined the variation in effects based on exposure to water bodies. The findings confirm that the policy adjustment did not significantly promote residents’ mental health. Proximity to water bodies also showed no significant effect. Residents without waterfront spaces visits presented higher CES-D scores after the policy change, whereas visual exposure to water bodies through home windows significantly lowered CES-D scores. However, residents visited parks with high-quality water features reported poorer self-rated health (SRH), while those without such exposure experienced increased self-assessed happiness after the policy intervention. These findings underscore the crucial role of different urban water bodies in buffering the mental impacts during major policy changes, highlighting their significance in urban planning and promoting well-being promotion strategies.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46392,"journal":{"name":"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy","volume":"18 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145166965","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Exploratory Spatial Analysis of Relationships between Crimes and Socioeconomic Factors in St. Louis, Missouri 密苏里州圣路易斯市犯罪与社会经济因素关系的空间探索性分析

IF 1.9 4区社会学

Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy Pub Date : 2025-07-19 DOI: 10.1007/s12061-025-09699-7

Tianyu Li

{"title":"Exploratory Spatial Analysis of Relationships between Crimes and Socioeconomic Factors in St. Louis, Missouri","authors":"Tianyu Li","doi":"10.1007/s12061-025-09699-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12061-025-09699-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>St. Louis, Missouri as the major metropolitan area in the Midwest, has faced persistent challenges related to violent crimes and property crimes. Existing research suggests that crime and socioeconomic status influence each other; however, empirical studies specifically focused on the St. Louis area remain limited. This study utilized data on crime patterns across the St. Louis area to explore the complex interrelationships among five types of crime—assault, auto theft, burglary, homicide, and robbery—and various socioeconomic characteristics, including housing conditions, poverty levels, transportation access, educational attainment, and employment rates. An exploratory regression analysis was conducted to identify the independent variables that would construct the best-fitting model. Both Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) results indicate that, whether considered collectively or individually, the five crime types do not fundamentally alter the overall relationship between crime and the selected socioeconomic factors. However, the socioeconomic factors affecting crime statistics varied by crime type, with each type being associated with different combinations of independent variables. Additionally, Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) results reveal that model performance varies spatially across all crime types, with local R² values being higher on the east side of St. Louis city and gradually decreasing toward the west side of St. Louis county. Moreover, in zip codes to the north of downtown St. Louis, which are perceived as less safe than average, socioeconomic indicators are relatively poor. This suggests that policies should be formulated based on the spatial distribution of crime.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46392,"journal":{"name":"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy","volume":"18 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145167673","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Towards Realistic Assignments Between Residents and Urban Public Green Spaces by Considering the Recreational Quality 考虑游憩品质的居民与城市公共绿地的现实分配

IF 1.9 4区社会学

Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy Pub Date : 2025-07-18 DOI: 10.1007/s12061-025-09690-2

Amirmohammad Ghavimi, Annika Bonerath, Jan-Henrik Haunert

{"title":"Towards Realistic Assignments Between Residents and Urban Public Green Spaces by Considering the Recreational Quality","authors":"Amirmohammad Ghavimi, Annika Bonerath, Jan-Henrik Haunert","doi":"10.1007/s12061-025-09690-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12061-025-09690-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Ensuring the quality of urban life necessitates the provision of urban public green spaces (UPGSs) in ample measure. These UPGSs serve as critical components of urban environments, contributing to the well-being and sustainability of cities. Hence, urban planners and decision-makers need to evaluate this supply. A recent method for such an evaluation is based on an optimal assignment between the residents and the UPGSs of an urban area. The method constrains the assignment such that the capacities of the UPGSs (i.e., the number of residents they can supply) are respected. These capacities are assumed to be proportional to size. In this study, we challenge and relax the prevailing assumption, redefining its constraints for a more accurate evaluation of UPGS capacities. We propose a novel approach for modeling the capacity of urban public green spaces (UPGS) by incorporating ten supplementary recreational criteria, including: responsiveness, safety and security, variety of activities, social interactions, residents’ perception, facilities, symbolic value, water body, aesthetic value, and connectivity, which we quantify using data derived from social media platforms. Our experiments show that the new model yields assignments that are more consistent with the actual use of UPGSs by residents. This innovative methodology allows us to gain deeper insights into the multifaceted aspects that influence the utilization and potential of UPGSs, paving the way for more informed and data-driven decision-making in urban planning and design.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46392,"journal":{"name":"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy","volume":"18 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s12061-025-09690-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145166291","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A Multi-Layer Approach to Assess Urban Innovation Districts 城市创新区的多层次评价方法

IF 1.9 4区社会学

Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy Pub Date : 2025-07-18 DOI: 10.1007/s12061-025-09692-0

Yanxu Jiang, Teemu Makkonen, Naixia Mou, Linfei Han

{"title":"A Multi-Layer Approach to Assess Urban Innovation Districts","authors":"Yanxu Jiang, Teemu Makkonen, Naixia Mou, Linfei Han","doi":"10.1007/s12061-025-09692-0","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12061-025-09692-0","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Clustering of innovation– the driving core behind regional innovation systems (RISs)– is a crucial contributor to economic prosperity. Such clusters are often denoted as innovation districts. While spatial characteristics, including accessibility to innovation services, rich amenities, and mixed land-use, have been associated with heightened regional innovativeness in previous studies, there is a gap in our knowledge on how to identify the boundaries of innovation districts within RIS. To fill this research gap, we propose a (data-driven) multi-layer approach consisting of a set of indicators depicting four RIS sub-systems (knowledge generation, knowledge exploitation, regional policy, and living environment sub-systems) and three different levels of spatial characteristics (clustering, coupling and coordination, and spatial mixing). The feasibility of the suggested “innovation district evaluation framework” is tested based on multi-source point of interest and patent data collected in Qingdao, China. The paper argues that the framework is a valuable tool assisting evidence-based development of specialized or diversified planning strategies to enhance the innovativeness of cities and to facilitate knowledge-based urban development.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46392,"journal":{"name":"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy","volume":"18 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s12061-025-09692-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145166292","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Effects of National Development Zones on Economic Growth and Urban Sprawl in China 中国国家级开发区对经济增长和城市扩张的影响

IF 1.9 4区社会学

Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy Pub Date : 2025-07-17 DOI: 10.1007/s12061-025-09693-z

Di Lyu, Chuanming Zhang, Chunlai Yuan

{"title":"Effects of National Development Zones on Economic Growth and Urban Sprawl in China","authors":"Di Lyu, Chuanming Zhang, Chunlai Yuan","doi":"10.1007/s12061-025-09693-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12061-025-09693-z","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>As a major regional economic policy, national development zones (NDZs) aim to promote China’s economic growth while also profoundly changing the spatial layout of cities. However, the effects of this policy urgently require comprehensive evaluation. Using the data of 225 cities from 2003 to 2017, this paper investigates the relationship and transmission mechanism among NDZs, economic growth, and urban sprawl using staggered difference-in differences (DID) model. The study finds that: First, the NDZs promote regional economic growth, but at the same time exacerbates urban sprawl. Specifically, the NDZs promote economic growth by increasing industrial scale, and increase urban sprawl by accelerating industrial and residential land development. Second, for NDZs with areas ranging between 500 ha and 1500 ha, the government faces a more difficult trade-off between the goals of promoting economic growth and optimizing urban layout. In the eastern city, the NDZs have a more significant impact on economic growth, while in the western city, its impact on urban sprawl is more pronounced. In addition, economic and technological development zones (ETDZs) contributes more to economic growth, while high-tech industrial development zones (TIDZs) has a greater promoting effect on urban sprawl. Finally, according to the result of the threshold effect, moderate urban sprawl can fully unleash the economic growth-boosting effect of NDZs. This study helps to accurately assess the impact of NDZs on urban economic growth and spatial structure, and provides some policy directions for the promotion of high-quality economic development and new urbanization.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46392,"journal":{"name":"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy","volume":"18 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145166176","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Planar vs. Vertical Dominance? A Nonlinear Analysis of the Urban Landscape-Land Surface Temperature Nexus 平面优势vs垂直优势？城市景观-地表温度关系的非线性分析

IF 1.9 4区社会学

Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy Pub Date : 2025-07-15 DOI: 10.1007/s12061-025-09687-x

Chaohui Yin, Jinlong Yan, Qian Wen, Yang Zhang, Zihao An, Yueyang Wang

{"title":"Planar vs. Vertical Dominance? A Nonlinear Analysis of the Urban Landscape-Land Surface Temperature Nexus","authors":"Chaohui Yin, Jinlong Yan, Qian Wen, Yang Zhang, Zihao An, Yueyang Wang","doi":"10.1007/s12061-025-09687-x","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12061-025-09687-x","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Urban landscape modifications are proposed as a potential solution to mitigate urban heat islands (UHIs). Previous research has explored the effects of planar and vertical urban landscape characteristics on land surface temperature (LST). However, these studies predominantly assume a yet-to-be-validated linearity in these effects, and overlook the multifaceted nature of these characteristics. As a result, the nuanced impact of urban landscapes and the accurate relative importance of planar versus vertical characteristics in shaping LST remain unclear. This study, focusing on Wuhan, China, investigates the nonlinear associations between planar and vertical urban landscapes and LST using random forest models. Our findings indicate that planar landscape characteristics contribute more significantly to LST variation than vertical characteristics (73% vs. 11%). Nevertheless, despite the seemingly small contribution of vertical characteristics, their impact is nearly equivalent to that of location characteristics (12%) and substantially surpasses that of socioeconomic factors (4%). Water area proportion, building density, greenspace proportion, and floor area ratio emerge as the most influential urban landscape characteristics. Moreover, our results reveal prevalent but distinct nonlinear relationships between urban landscapes and LST, identifying four patterns: L−/inverted-L- shape, stepwise-decline−/increase, inverted-U-shaped, and N-shaped patterns. Our research provides valuable insights into multidimensional urban planning strategies for effective UHI mitigation. Taking into account the revealed nonlinearity, we also propose planning strategies to address the complex challenges of regulating urban thermal environments.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46392,"journal":{"name":"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy","volume":"18 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s12061-025-09687-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145165143","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Location Intelligence in Sport Tourism Economics: Temporal Evolution and Sectoral Variation of Bassmaster Elite Series Fishing Tournaments 体育旅游经济学中的位置智能：Bassmaster精英系列钓鱼比赛的时间演变和部门变化

IF 1.9 4区社会学

Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy Pub Date : 2025-07-12 DOI: 10.1007/s12061-025-09688-w

Bradley Congelio

{"title":"Location Intelligence in Sport Tourism Economics: Temporal Evolution and Sectoral Variation of Bassmaster Elite Series Fishing Tournaments","authors":"Bradley Congelio","doi":"10.1007/s12061-025-09688-w","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12061-025-09688-w","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study examines the economic and spatial impacts of Bassmaster Elite Series fishing tournaments on host communities through a novel application of location intelligence data. Using Advan’s monthly patterns dataset from 2022–2024, visitation patterns, consumer behavior, and spatial dependencies are analyzed across multiple tournament locations in South Carolina. Our spatially aware difference-in-differences framework incorporates treatment intensity based on proximity to tournament venues and explicitly accounts for spatial autocorrelation effects. Results reveal significant increases in business activity near location of tournament sites, with spatial clustering (Moran’s <i>I</i> = 0.333, <i>p</i> < 0.001) that strengthens over time (2022: 0.122, 2023: 0.171, 2024: 0.203). Effects persist beyond the immediate tournament period, with statistically significant impacts observed up to three months post-event, particularly for hospitality, recreation, and retail sectors. Robustness checks using alternative distance specifications and placebo tests confirm the validity of our findings. This research advances the understanding of how professional fishing tournaments generate economic value through both direct spending and spatial spillovers, providing valuable insights for event organizers, destination marketers, and local policymakers. Our methodological approach demonstrates the utility of geo-behavioral data in quantifying the community-level impacts of sporting events beyond traditional economic impact assessments.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46392,"journal":{"name":"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy","volume":"18 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s12061-025-09688-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145164331","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Effect of Working Patterns on Spatial Variation in Outdoor Leisure Activity of Fixed-Location Workers: A Case Study of Nanjing, China 工作方式对定点工作者户外休闲活动空间变异的影响——以南京市为例

IF 1.9 4区社会学

Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy Pub Date : 2025-07-09 DOI: 10.1007/s12061-025-09689-9

Mingzhu Gao, Chen Zhou, Ye Fan, Liang Liu, Xiangyuan He, Chiying Lyu, Saisai Sun

{"title":"Effect of Working Patterns on Spatial Variation in Outdoor Leisure Activity of Fixed-Location Workers: A Case Study of Nanjing, China","authors":"Mingzhu Gao, Chen Zhou, Ye Fan, Liang Liu, Xiangyuan He, Chiying Lyu, Saisai Sun","doi":"10.1007/s12061-025-09689-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12061-025-09689-9","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>A comprehensive understanding of intra-urban dynamic changes requires an in-depth analysis of outdoor leisure activity behaviors. However, the existing research has not systematically examined how working hours interact with spatial factors in shaping leisure behavior. To bridge this gap, we investigated the spatial differentiation of outdoor leisure activities on weekends among fixed-location workers in Nanjing and evaluated the influence of working patterns. The study area consists of 14 urban zones, including two main cities, three sub-cities, and nine new towns. First, behavioral features were extracted from mobile phone data. Second, an autoencoder was used to construct a weekend outdoor leisure activity indicator (<i>Participation</i>). Lastly, the Geodetector method quantified the independent effects of the working patterns, accessibility features, and individual features. In addition, we examined the spatial heterogeneity of these factors and determined how their interactions enhance their overall impact. The results indicate that, in 12 urban zones, variations in <i>Participation</i> are primarily shaped by working patterns, with the explanatory power (q) ≥ 0.04. The dominant factors exhibited a layered distribution, expanding outward from the center of Nanjing in a linear pattern, with an average expansion interval of 8.9 km and a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.996. Moreover, interactions among different factors substantially amplified their effects, with q increases as high as 257.1%. These findings underscore the pivotal role of working patterns in shaping residents’ outdoor leisure activities on weekends and highlight the spatial differences in the driving factors, offering new insights into the spatial and social trends of leisure behavior.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46392,"journal":{"name":"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy","volume":"18 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145163828","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Comparing Machine Learning-Based Crime Predictions Across Micro-Geographic Units: Street Segments, Rectangular Grids, and Hexagonal Grids 比较基于机器学习的微地理单元犯罪预测：街道段、矩形网格和六边形网格

IF 1.9 4区社会学

Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy Pub Date : 2025-06-25 DOI: 10.1007/s12061-025-09683-1

Robin Khalfa, Wim Hardyns

{"title":"Comparing Machine Learning-Based Crime Predictions Across Micro-Geographic Units: Street Segments, Rectangular Grids, and Hexagonal Grids","authors":"Robin Khalfa, Wim Hardyns","doi":"10.1007/s12061-025-09683-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12061-025-09683-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study examines the potential of alternative micro-geographic units of analysis compared to the widely used rectangular grid for predicting (monthly) micro-geographic crime risks using a machine learning approach. Specifically, this study compares the prediction performance of machine learning models (XGBoost) in deriving monthly micro-geographic risk predictions for three crime types across rectangular and hexagonal grids of varying resolutions, as well as street segments, using the hit rate, precision, and F1-score as key performance measures. Police-registered data on residential burglary, aggressive theft, and battery (2013–2018), along with environmental and seasonal data on crime predictors were used to train the models and evaluate their performance across different units of analysis and performance measures. Results show that street segments generally achieve higher hit rates compared to grid-based units, but only marginally when compared to high-resolution grids (0.0025 km²). This study thus finds no clear advantage of street segments over small grids in terms of model hit rate. In addition, using street segments and small grids comes at the cost of lower model precision, resulting in more false positive predictions. Grids with resolutions from 0.04 km² to 0.25 km² offer a more balanced performance. Further, no substantial differences were found between rectangular and hexagonal grids, indicating grid shape does not affect prediction performance. Future work should explore how model performance should be defined and operationalised within the context predicting crime risks at specific micro-geographic levels and what the implications are of employing specific micro-geographic units of analysis within the context of crime prevention.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46392,"journal":{"name":"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy","volume":"18 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145169709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0