Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy最新文献

{"title":"Assessing Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Future Projections of Land Use Conflicts in Metropolitan Areas under Climate Change","authors":"Lingjun Lu,&nbsp;Xu Han,&nbsp;Junjun Zhu,&nbsp;Ligang Lv,&nbsp;Xueyan Sui","doi":"10.1007/s12061-025-09664-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12061-025-09664-4","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The assessment of land use conflicts is essential for promoting sustainable regional development. Exacerbated by climate change, global land use conflicts require dynamic and scenario-specific predictions that remain notably underexplored. The Nanjing Metropolitan Area in China serves as a representative case in this study. An evaluation model for land use conflicts was developed from a landscape pattern perspective to examine the spatiotemporal variations in such conflicts between 2000 and 2020. The driving factors of these conflicts were analyzed using Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) and a geodetector model. Furthermore, to simulate the spatiotemporal evolution of land use conflicts from 2030 to 2050, this study employed the advanced Patch-Generated Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model under three distinct climate scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. The findings reveal the following: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, land use conflicts were more intense in the north and less intense in the south, with the area of extreme conflict decreasing by 11.04%, reflecting an overall alleviation. (2) The basic pattern of land use conflicts was initially shaped by natural driving factors, with precipitation and evapotranspiration showing the highest correlation coefficients of 0.498 and 0.821, respectively, exerting a significant positive impact on the spatiotemporal evolution of these conflicts. Over time, the influence of socioeconomic factors, location factors, and national policies on land use conflicts has gradually increased. (3) By 2050, under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, extreme conflict is projected to decrease to just 1.92%, with significant mitigation. In the SSP2-4.5 scenario, conflicts will remain moderate, whereas in the SSP5-8.5 scenario, moderate conflicts will increase to 38.4%, indicating worsening tensions. The intensifying impacts of climate change and human activity are expected to exacerbate future land use conflicts. This study addresses the gap in research combining land use conflicts with climate scenarios and provides recommendations for optimizing land resource allocation in regions such as the Nanjing Metropolitan Area, alleviating human–environment tensions, and promoting sustainable land use.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46392,"journal":{"name":"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy","volume":"18 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144135277","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Population Dynamics and Vulnerability: Regional Pathways in Spain, 2002–2021","authors":"Osama Damoun,&nbsp;Jordi Bayona-i-Carrasco,&nbsp;Andreu Domingo","doi":"10.1007/s12061-025-09663-5","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12061-025-09663-5","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In low fertility and mortality countries, migrations are increasingly becoming the main demographic component inducing fast population turnover at different geographic scales. Spain is a privileged case of study since it has become a new international migration destination in the XXI century. In 2023, foreign born population surpassed 17% after two migration waves following economic cycles, interrupted by two shocks, the Great Recession and the Covid-19 pandemic. At the regional level, some areas concentrate the majority of immigrations and population growth. Indeed, the latest data show that while some regions reach 26% of foreign-born residents, others barely exceed 4%. These accelerated changes are key to understand how demography can shift from slow to fast under certain conditions. The objectives are twofold: first, determine the role of different demographic components in population change by NUTS-3 regions and their characteristics measured by a socioeconomic index; second, detect if a regional demographic convergence is taking place. The results show evidence of accelerated population change following the rise of international migration and the effects of the crisis and Covid-19. Overall migration is increasingly becoming the main demographic component in detriment of natural increase in most regions. Regional convergence models perform well indicating the increasing role of migrations in population change throughout all regions. Nevertheless, some shortcomings have to be pointed out regarding the lack of convergence of emigrations in the most vulnerable regions. This approach is useful tool for policymakers to identify population changes affecting the design and coverage of public services.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46392,"journal":{"name":"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy","volume":"18 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s12061-025-09663-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144140193","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From Exclusion to Inclusion: Urban Inclusiveness Assessment and Its Driving Factors in China","authors":"Jing Li,&nbsp;Ziyang Long","doi":"10.1007/s12061-025-09665-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12061-025-09665-3","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Inclusive urbanization hinges on government’s fiscal strategy and policy orientations. Over the past decade, the Chinese central government has undertaken notable shift in its development goals to achieve inclusive urbanization, from exclusive public service provision to equalization of urban–rural basic public services. This study seeks to examine local government’s fiscal strategy and identify the key drivers propelling inclusive urbanization in China. Based on 285 cities of the period 2007 to 2021, we start with the Data Envelopment Analysis to assess the local government’s fiscal performance for urban inclusiveness. The results reveal the spatiotemporal variations and an overall upward trend in urban inclusiveness, with western cities exhibiting relatively higher performance scores. Further, we employ spatial models and find positive neighboring effects of local governments on promoting urban inclusiveness. The regression results reveal an inverted U-shaped relationship between GDP and urban inclusiveness, while fiscal decentralization and government transfer payments are also found to be strongly associated with inclusiveness. However, the magnitude and direction of these effects vary across regions, likely due to differences in place-based policies and underlying economic structures. These findings underscore the necessity of designing differentiated fiscal policies from higher-level government to local government that account for regional contexts.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46392,"journal":{"name":"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy","volume":"18 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144125866","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Optimization Site Selection for Online-to-offline Convenience Facilities using Knowledge Graph and Graph Neural Network: A Case Study of Nanjing, China","authors":"Yifan Zhao,&nbsp;Guangliang Xi,&nbsp;Haiping Zhang,&nbsp;Feng Zhen","doi":"10.1007/s12061-025-09662-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12061-025-09662-6","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>With the rapid growth of online retail and instant delivery services, traditional location models for urban facilities have undergone significant changes. This study proposes an optimization framework for the site selection of O2O (online-to-offline) convenience facilities in Nanjing, utilizing Knowledge Graphs (KGs) and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). By integrating resident feedback, urban environmental data, and commercial facility performance, the framework identifies key environmental factors affecting facility operation and provides optimized spatial distribution recommendations for various O2O facilities. The findings show that the hybrid recommender system combining KGs and GNNs offers substantial advantages in capturing the complex relationships between the urban environment and facility performance, leading to more accurate and personalized site selection decisions. Compared to traditional methods, this approach enhances recommendation accuracy, interpretability, and the transparency of the site selection process. This study provides a scientific basis for improving the layout of O2O facilities, particularly in incorporating consumer feedback, thus enabling more human-centered decision-making in site selection.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46392,"journal":{"name":"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy","volume":"18 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144108447","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Study of Changing Automated Teller Machine (ATM) Accessibility and its Implications in England and Wales","authors":"Stephen D. Clark,&nbsp;Chris Duley","doi":"10.1007/s12061-025-09658-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12061-025-09658-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The ways that people choose to pay for products and services is changing, with many people having a greater desire to pay using electronic means in preference to using cash. However for a significant section of society cash remains an important option, for budgetary, technical and sociological reasons. One of the primary ways to make cash available is through Automated Teller Machines (ATMs) and the United Kingdom’s financial industry and the government are keen to maintain a viable network of ATMs. In this study a refinement to the Floating Catchment Area technique, the Modified Huff Variable Three Step Floating Catchment Area (MHV3SFCA), is used to assess the accessibility of ATMs in England and Wales. The MHV3SFCA approach better accounts for competition, and ensures equity through a minimum threshold for access. How this accessibility has changed over time and how the definition of the network has an impact is shown. The results are illustrated with maps that identify potential ATM deserts and a case study of the City of York. Trends are summarised using the typographies of an area classification, a deprivation index and an urban/rural indicator. The results show better accessibility in deprived and urban locations. Over a 3 year time period the accessibility has deteriorated for all locations, however this was least in deprived areas, where accessibility is already good. In locations where there has been an attempt to protect ATMs, the level of accessibility has remained stable.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46392,"journal":{"name":"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy","volume":"18 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s12061-025-09658-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144108454","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Analyzing Rural Community Growth and Shrinkage: Insights from Household Electricity Data in Xinxing County, China","authors":"Yaofu Huang,&nbsp;Xun Li,&nbsp;Weihuan Deng,&nbsp;Weipan Xu","doi":"10.1007/s12061-025-09660-8","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12061-025-09660-8","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Currently, rural areas in China are facing numerous challenges in the process of modernization, while macro-scale research often overlooks the complexity of internal changes within these rural communities. This study aims to examine the dynamic patterns of growth and shrinkage in rural areas from a village-level perspective and to explore the factors driving these changes. By analyzing household electricity consumption data from 174 villages in Xinxing County, Guangdong Province, this paper employs the K-Means clustering algorithm to categorize villages into agglomerated, stable, and shrinking types, and constructs a regression model to investigate the impact of multiple dimensions, including geographic environment, public service provision, infrastructure construction, and industrial development level, on rural development. The findings reveal significant spatial differentiation in rural development, with agglomerated villages primarily located around county towns and townships, while shrinking villages are mainly situated in border areas. Among the factors influencing rural community development, the importance of healthcare services, internet infrastructure, and industrial development is increasingly recognized. The innovation of this paper lies in proposing a method for measuring rural development types based on household electricity consumption data, which uncovers differentiation patterns in rural areas that are difficult to observe in macro-scale studies. These results provide a new perspective for understanding the subtle differences in rural development and offer empirical support for formulating policies aimed at sustainable development of rural communities.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46392,"journal":{"name":"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy","volume":"18 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144073654","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring Commuting Characteristics and Regional Differences of New Energy Vehicles in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area Based on ETC Big Data","authors":"Junda Huang,&nbsp;Huiying Wen,&nbsp;Kunhuo Huang","doi":"10.1007/s12061-025-09659-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12061-025-09659-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The widespread adoption of electric vehicles has significantly reduced residents’ transportation costs and is gradually reshaping urban mobility patterns. As one of the world’s four major bay areas, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area offers a unique opportunity to identify and analyze new energy vehicles commuting via its highways. This study focuses on these vehicles by leveraging extensive big data from highway Electronic Toll Collection (ETC) systems. We employed the K-means +  + clustering algorithm to perform a comprehensive cluster analysis of vehicles within the study area, thereby identifying potential commuter vehicles and visualizing their commuting patterns and hotspots. These findings provide valuable insights for urban planners regarding the daily variations in travel demand among new energy commuters in metropolitan areas. The key findings are as follows: 1) Approximately 7.13% of the total new energy small passenger vehicles in the Greater Bay Area are potential commuter vehicles, predominantly concentrated in Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Foshan. 2) There are notable regional differences in the types of new energy commuter vehicles; for instance, Guangzhou and Foshan tend to favor pure electric vehicles for commuting, whereas Shenzhen exhibits a different trend. 3) Among new energy commuter vehicles, 81.42% of trips are intra-city, primarily within Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Foshan; while only 18.58% are inter-city, predominantly occurring between Shenzhen-Dongguan, Huizhou-Shenzhen, and Foshan-Guangzhou.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46392,"journal":{"name":"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy","volume":"18 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143925710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Urban Climate Adaptation and REsilience (U-CARE) in Texas: Insights from Interdisciplinary Perspectives","authors":"Yangyang Xu,&nbsp;Stephen Willis,&nbsp;Allysa Dallmann,&nbsp;Heng Cai,&nbsp;Leiqiu Hu,&nbsp;Lei Zou,&nbsp;Wei Zhai,&nbsp;Cenlin He,&nbsp;John Alberston,&nbsp;Xiuling Zhao,&nbsp;Gunnar W. Schade,&nbsp;Huilin Gao,&nbsp;Ebrahim Eslami,&nbsp;Zhi-Hua Wang,&nbsp;Deepak Kumar,&nbsp;Qi Li,&nbsp;Chao Fan,&nbsp;John F. Mejia,&nbsp;Oluponmile Olonilua,&nbsp;Wenfu Tang,&nbsp;Betsy Breyer,&nbsp;Ruby Leung,&nbsp;Daniel Sui,&nbsp;Dev Niyogi,&nbsp;Xinyue Ye","doi":"10.1007/s12061-025-09655-5","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12061-025-09655-5","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The IPCC’s Special Report on Climate Change and Cities shows how cities must adapt to climate risks. Urban planners need to create solutions that fit each city’s needs, enhancing urban adaptability and resilience in the context of increasing climate-related risks. Sustainable urban planning, increased citizen awareness, and resilient infrastructure design are crucial in mitigating the growing impacts of climate change on human settlements. Addressing these challenges requires the integration of perspectives from diverse disciplines, including the natural sciences, social sciences, and engineering fields. This article draws on insights from a collaborative effort among experts in these areas, promoting a more coordinated and interdisciplinary approach. By bridging this expertise, we aim to advance resilience practices and awareness, fostering effective urban climate solutions in Texas and beyond.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46392,"journal":{"name":"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy","volume":"18 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143913811","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimating Large-Scale Urban Traffic Emissions with Incomplete Covered Traffic Flow Data—A Case of Core Areas of Guangzhou, China","authors":"Keyu Lu,&nbsp;Hui Meng,&nbsp;Xinhang Liu,&nbsp;Dan Zou,&nbsp;Qiuping Li","doi":"10.1007/s12061-025-09656-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12061-025-09656-4","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Estimating vehicle emissions across large urban road networks requires extensive data, particularly traffic flow data, which is essential for reliable emission estimation for the entire vehicle population. Due to the sparse distribution of data collection devices, traffic flow data is often unavailable for some roads, leading to inaccurate emission estimates. To address this, this study introduces a machine learning-based model to infer unobserved traffic flow using auxiliary urban data like population, points of interests (POIs), and taxi GPS data. After that, the complete traffic flow data are integrated with the localized Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) to estimate road-level emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and fine particulate matter (PM_2.5). A Case study from the core areas of Guangzhou, China, reveasl significant spatial and temporal disparities in emissions. CO emissions are evenly distributed across the roads, while NOx and VOCs are concentrated on expressways. CO and PM_2.5 emissions peak in the morning, while NOx and VOCs peak in the evening. All four types of emissions follow power-law distributions, with a small number of heavily polluted roads accounting for most emissions, and NOx and VOCs showing the greatest spatial disparity. These findings provide a detailed measurement of large-scale urban traffic emissions and offer actionable insights for urban environmental protection and sustainable development strategies.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46392,"journal":{"name":"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy","volume":"18 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143908792","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Examining Cross-city Travel Behaviour and its Associated Spatial Structure Using Dockless Bike-sharing Data","authors":"Yongping Zhang,&nbsp;Wenyan Fu,&nbsp;Mengqiu Cao,&nbsp;Hui Kong","doi":"10.1007/s12061-025-09654-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12061-025-09654-6","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Bike-sharing provides a convenient means of transport for short-trip travellers and is considered an efficient way to solve the first-and-last-mile problem. However, existing studies have paid little attention to cross-city travel in the bike-sharing context, or to its potential to reveal the spatial structure of cities. This paper considers two types of cross-city travel behaviour: the first involves a traveller taking a single trip from one city to another (<i>Type I</i>); and the second refers to a traveller making two consecutive trips in two cities, suggesting that a cross-city trip between these two cities has occurred (<i>Type II</i>). Using dockless bike-sharing big data from Zhejiang Province (China), we adopt a network-based approach to examining cross-city travel behaviour and its associated spatial structure. Our results show that it is less common for cyclists to undertake cross-city travel than to only travel within a single city, and that it is more difficult to travel across prefecture-level cities in comparison to county-level cities. Spatial structure varies greatly between different city levels and for different types of cross-city journeys. The county-level cross-city patterns identified 10 spatial communities, some of which show inconsistencies between their community-based and administrative boundaries. This study could help to advance our understanding of the characteristics of cross-city travel behaviour and its associated spatial structure. It also provides some useful implications for policy-making and practical operations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46392,"journal":{"name":"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy","volume":"18 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143883589","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}