Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy最新文献

{"title":"Beyond the Farm: How Employment Shifts and Infrastructure Shape Regional Welfare in Uzbekistan","authors":"Hamid Turaev,&nbsp;Muhammad Taimoor,&nbsp;Aziza Turaeva,&nbsp;Nodir Abdushakhidov,&nbsp;Ansagay Moldakhmetov,&nbsp;Jiapeng Xu","doi":"10.1007/s12061-026-10036-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12061-026-10036-9","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>As Uzbekistan undergoes rapid economic transformation, this study investigates how the structural shift toward a diversified, non-farm labour market alleviates poverty across its 14 administrative regions. We quantify how this transition is conditioned by localised thresholds in physical infrastructure, digital connectivity, and human capital. Analysing a 2010–2024 macro-panel dataset, our empirical strategy employs a rigorous general-to-specific spatial econometric framework. Following exploratory spatial data analysis that confirms significant regional clustering, we primarily utilise a Two-Way Fixed Effects Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) to robustly handle cross-sectional dependence and explicitly quantify inter-regional spillovers, while deploying a Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) model to evaluate core-periphery heterogeneity. While initial estimates suggest non-farm employment (NFE) directly reduces poverty, robust spatial models reveal that this structural shift is highly conditional and often spatially conditioned. Crucially, a core-periphery heterogeneity analysis shows that expanding the NFE share yields significant poverty reduction only within Urban Core regions. In contrast, structural labour shifts in the Rural Periphery fail to reduce local poverty without a foundational baseline; instead, these isolated regions rely heavily on regional capital investment for inter-regional welfare spillovers and digital infrastructure expansion for local economic inclusion. Consequently, to sustainably bridge the spatial welfare divide, policymakers must abandon uniform interventions in favour of spatially tailored strategies, transitioning from basic digital and transport capacity-building in peripheral regions to advanced economic absorption strategies in developed hubs.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46392,"journal":{"name":"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy","volume":"19 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149189526","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Spatially Nonlinear and Heterogeneous Effects of Urban Extreme Precipitation on Housing Prices in Shanghai: An Interpretable Ensemble Learning Model-Based Approach","authors":"Xiaochang Liu,&nbsp;Wen Dong,&nbsp;Linghua Zhu,&nbsp;Xiuning Zhang,&nbsp;Xiang Ao,&nbsp;Xueliang Zhang,&nbsp;Tao Wu,&nbsp;Zeyin Chen,&nbsp;Renlu Qiao","doi":"10.1007/s12061-026-10038-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12061-026-10038-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Climate change amplifies urban extreme precipitation (UEP), seriously jeopardizing the housing markets’ sustainability in developing economies. However, the nonlinear and spatially heterogeneous economic effects of UEP on housing prices remain underexplored. Consequently, an illustrative framework was proposed to quantify UEP’s impacts on property values. Taking Shanghai as a testbed, UEP was estimated using a percentile-based method with high-resolution remote sensing datasets from an intra-urban perspective. After multi-model benchmarking, a Monte Carlo Simulation-based interpretable ensemble learning model was developed to decouple the spatially nonlinear and heterogeneous association between UEP and housing prices across varied intra-urban submarkets (e.g.,<i> topographical</i>,<i> morphological</i>,<i> functional</i>,<i> and locational typologies</i>). The modelling results unveil a nonlinear response and threshold effects: the impacts oscillated around + 1,500 RMB/m² as UEP fell below 34 mm due to the potential trade-offs between environmental performance and housing prices. Above the threshold, housing prices experienced a significant decrease of approximately 4,000 RMB/m² (from + 1,500 to -2,500 RMB/m²), as the UEP increased from 34 to 42 mm. Moreover, the heterogeneous patterns of property values were explored across varied UEP types. The adverse effects were 2.5 times larger in low‑lying than in high‑elevation submarkets, twice as large in high‑density as in low‑density neighbourhoods, most severe in industrial zones, and highest in peripheral areas, followed by central areas. These spatially heterogeneous findings directly inform policy implications, including prioritising sponge‑city retrofits in low‑lying and high‑density neighbourhoods; mandating flood‑proofing certificates and risk‑based mortgage terms for industrial and peripheral properties; and adjusting property taxes or resilience bonds according to local vulnerability.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46392,"journal":{"name":"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy","volume":"19 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149189527","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Electroencephalography (EEG)-Based Optimization Research of Night Living Street Space","authors":"Haijuan Han,&nbsp;Liru Li,&nbsp;Keni Zhang","doi":"10.1007/s12061-026-10041-y","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12061-026-10041-y","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Under the background of rapid urbanization and vigorous development of night economy, night living street is the core place for residents’ outdoor activities at night, and its spatial quality optimization has attracted wide attention. However, at present, the night living street space mostly depends on the traditional subjective evaluation system, and lacks the quantitative support of objective physiological data. This study presents a systematic application of electroencephalography (EEG) technology to quantify the multi-space elements of night living streets. It systematically investigates the potential effects of these spatial elements on residents’ physiological responses, and achieves bidirectional validation between subjective and objective physiological data by combining EEG data with subjective questionnaires. The experimental results indicate that the continuity and moderate enclosure of sidewalks enclosure are positively correlated with security and perceived order. The rich color, commercial activities and other interface vitality characteristics are also positively correlated with the spatial attraction, while the high spatial complexity is negatively correlated with the spatial clarity. At the level of lighting environment, especially high lighting density and warm color temperature lighting, there is a potential correlation with pedestrian comprehensive perception experience. This study provides empirical evidence for understanding the physiological response in the night living street environment, and provides a preliminary reference for urban night living street renewal.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46392,"journal":{"name":"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy","volume":"19 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149189069","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Non-Motorized Transport (NMT)–Metro Nexus: Sustainable First/Last-Mile Connectivity to Metro Stations in Nagpur, an Indian Mid-Sized City","authors":"Kalpana Kawathekar,&nbsp;Pankaj Bahadure,&nbsp;Vilas Bakde","doi":"10.1007/s12061-026-10031-0","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12061-026-10031-0","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Mass rapid transit can reduce congestion, emissions and road-safety externalities in rapidly urbanizing cities, but only if passengers can conveniently reach and leave its stations — access and egress are often the weakest link in the door-to-door journey. This reciprocal relationship, in which Non-Motorized Transport (NMT) provision shapes metro accessibility and ridership while metro investment creates the case for NMT infrastructure spending, is termed here the NMT–Metro Nexus. This paper is a structured literature review of 99 sources (92 via a documented search-and-screening protocol, plus 7 later additions; see Methodology) from Scopus, Web of Science and Google Scholar, organised across four themes: sustainable public transport in Indian cities, travel behaviour of NMT users in station catchments, policy and planning frameworks, and public-transport accessibility and NMT integration in Indian metros, using Nagpur Maha Metro as a contextual, illustrative application rather than an empirical case study. The review compares findings across contexts, notes where Tier-1 (Delhi, Mumbai) and Tier-2/mid-sized-city evidence diverge, and identifies three gaps: limited station-level empirical evidence for Indian metros, no integrated NMT planning framework, and limited attention to rapidly motorising mid-sized cities such as Nagpur. Drawing on accessibility, distance-decay and node–place theory, the review interprets station catchments as a distance-decay function of access-mode speed, comfort and safety rather than a fixed radius, and reads Nagpur’s stations as exhibiting a node–place imbalance in which line-haul capacity has outpaced first/last-mile place-quality. Building on this evidence, the review proposes a preliminary NMT-catchment planning framework pairing distance-based catchment bands (walking, cycling, feeder Intermediate Public Transport) with four integration dimensions — physical, network, fare-operational and institutional — plus indicative implementation steps for Nagpur Metro planners; the framework is conceptual and requires station-level validation before wider application.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46392,"journal":{"name":"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy","volume":"19 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149190022","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Beyond Local Borders: A Spatial Durbin Analysis of Labour Migration and Poverty Dynamics in 1,063 Mahallas of Samarkand","authors":"Hamid Turaev,&nbsp;Muhammad Taimoor,&nbsp;Aziza Turaeva,&nbsp;Jiapeng Xu","doi":"10.1007/s12061-026-10039-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12061-026-10039-6","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Labour migration is a defining economic dynamic in Central Asia, yet the spatial pathways by which it interacts with local poverty remain poorly understood. Previous empirical studies using spatially blind estimators systematically ignore regional spillover effects and spatial dependence. This study addresses this gap by analysing the spatial clustering of poverty and the structural associations of international labour migration with poverty across 1,063 mahallas in Uzbekistan’s Samarkand region. Utilising 2025 administrative microdata from the “Mahallabay” registry, we employ a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) with a group-interaction spatial weights matrix to accurately capture local institutional realities. Empirical decomposition reveals highly significant positive spatial dependence in poverty itself, indicating that vulnerable mahallas’ poverty levels are closely correlated with those of their neighbours. While non-spatial estimators suggest strong poverty-reducing associations, SDM decomposition reveals localised direct associations, and spatial spillovers exhibit competing directional pathways that neutralise each other, yielding a statistically non-significant total effect. Furthermore, quantile regression suggests that access to agricultural capital serves as a safety net in severely impoverished mahallas, though wide confidence intervals warrant cautious interpretation. Our findings highlight that non-spatial estimators fundamentally misrepresent local developmental dynamics by ignoring spatial feedback. Consequently, this study notes that labour migration-poverty dynamics involve complex spatial trade-offs that complicate broad policy interventions, acknowledging that official registries may exclude unregistered marginalised populations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46392,"journal":{"name":"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy","volume":"19 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149190023","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Effect of National AI Innovation Pilot Zones on Urban Public Service Delivery: Evidence from China","authors":"Chunlai Yuan,&nbsp;Yuxi Fan,&nbsp;Juan Liu","doi":"10.1007/s12061-026-09975-0","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12061-026-09975-0","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Enhancing public service delivery is vital for improving residents’ well-being and advancing high-quality urban development. China’s push for urban digital-intelligent transformation provides new opportunities to strengthen the efficiency, quality, and accessibility of public services. We measure public service delivery levels across cities and uses the establishment of National AI Innovation Pilot Zones as a quasi-natural experiment. Employing a multi-period difference-in-differences framework, it examines the causal impact of digital-intelligent transformation on public service delivery and investigates its underlying mechanisms. The results show that urban digital-intelligent transformation significantly improves public service delivery. Mechanism tests indicate that the improvements operate mainly through enhanced urban innovation capacity and industrial upgrading. Heterogeneity analysis reveals stronger effects in southern regions, economically developed cities, and higher-level administrative units. Spatial spillover analysis further shows that NAIIPZs not only benefit pilot cities but also generate positive externalities for surrounding areas. However, the moderating analysis suggests that high fiscal decentralization weakens the positive impact of digital-intelligent transformation. This study enriches the literature on urban public services and offers policy insights for China’s urban modernization and global urban governance.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46392,"journal":{"name":"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy","volume":"19 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149189057","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatial Restructuring of Rural Settlements in the North China Plain During the Ming–Qing Transition (1630–1680): A Multi-Temporal Gis Analysis of Historical Settlement Data","authors":"Cheng Chi","doi":"10.1007/s12061-026-10002-5","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12061-026-10002-5","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Rural settlements form a fundamental layer of cultural heritage, yet most existing studies analyse their distribution at a single temporal cross-section, leaving the dynamics of historical restructuring underexplored. This study constructs a multi-temporal GIS framework to reconstruct rural settlement distributions in the North China Plain at three time slices (1630, 1644, and 1680) spanning the Ming to Qing dynastic transition. Using 13,961 contemporary village locations as a spatial baseline, historical presence is estimated through toponymic analysis, administrative record linkage, and a probabilistic attrition model. Spatial pattern methods, Geodetector, and multiscale geographically weighted regression are then applied to trace disruption and recovery and to identify the geographic factors associated with settlement survival. Results indicate that the settlement total declined by a net 18.1% between 1630 and 1644, with only partial recovery by 1680 leaving the total 12.5% below the late Ming baseline. Loss was spatially concentrated in the western uplands of Zhangde Fu and the southern margins of Weihui Fu. Overlap analysis with the national traditional village inventory identifies over 7,400 model-classified persistent settlements that are not currently included in the heritage protection framework and may warrant further field verification. The findings provide a replicable template for event-scale settlement research and empirical grounding for heritage inventory refinement.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46392,"journal":{"name":"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy","volume":"19 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149132803","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Beyond Scaling Laws: Mobility-Based Explanations of Scale-Adjusted Economic Performance in the Pearl River Delta","authors":"Jinping Lin,&nbsp;Kangmin Wu","doi":"10.1007/s12061-026-10030-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12061-026-10030-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Urban scaling identifies economic performance relative to the output expected from population size but does not, by itself, identify why particular places depart from that benchmark. We examine whether population mobility and network position are associated with scale-adjusted economic performance (SAEP) in China’s Pearl River Delta (PRD) during 2019–2023. Annual SAEP is the residual from the GDP–population scaling relationship. Spatial panel models relate SAEP to intercity and intracity flows, directional imbalance, and network centrality across weekdays, weekends, and holidays, with robustness and endogeneity checks. The population hierarchy remained broadly stable, with only slight flattening, while spatial differences in SAEP persisted. Some weekday and weekend flow coefficients were statistically significant in parsimonious models but weakened in full specifications and were not robust across sensitivity analyses. Network centrality added little explanatory information. The spatial autoregressive coefficient was consistently negative and significant, indicating conditional spatial contrast among neighboring units rather than causal displacement or siphoning. Reverse-direction and IV checks did not resolve causal ordering. These findings delimit the explanatory reach of aggregate mobility: flow and centrality are relational proxies and do not identify a general mechanism of SAEP variation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46392,"journal":{"name":"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy","volume":"19 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149133079","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Monthly Rhythms of Intercity Travel: A Seasonal Analysis of Population Mobility Between Chinese Cities","authors":"Fan Xiao,&nbsp;Xueying Mai,&nbsp;Meicheng Xiong","doi":"10.1007/s12061-026-10034-x","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12061-026-10034-x","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>With the continuous improvement of China’s high-speed transportation system and the deepening of regional integration, intercity travel has become increasingly frequent and has emerged as an important field for studying spatial linkages and regional interaction among cities. Based on AMap Migration big data, we analyze the monthly rhythms and seasonal fluctuations of intercity travel throughout 2023. By examining flow characteristics at the national, city, and city-pair scales, this study reveals the monthly rhythm of intercity travel in China. Using K-means clustering and the temporal Gini coefficient, the study investigates the spatiotemporal patterns of intercity travel. The results show that intercity travel in China exhibits clear seasonality at the national scale, with peaks concentrated mainly in January, August, and October, and troughs concentrated in February–March and November–December. At the city scale, urban rhythmic patterns can be classified into four types: highly balanced, weak-rhythm, moderate-rhythm, and strong-rhythm. Economically developed large cities generally exhibit higher travel volumes and weaker seasonal fluctuations, whereas cities in western and northeastern regions tend to have smaller intercity travel volumes and stronger seasonal variability. At the city-pair scale, intercity travel with weaker seasonality is concentrated mainly within metropolitan areas and within the same province. These different types of cities and city pairs display marked differences in spatial distribution and travel demand. This study provides valuable insight into the seasonal patterns and spatial variation of intercity travel in China and has important theoretical and practical implications for urban transportation planning and policymaking.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46392,"journal":{"name":"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy","volume":"19 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s12061-026-10034-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149132715","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Geopolitics Meets Trade: How Political Proximity Shapes China’s Export Resilience","authors":"Shan Li,&nbsp;Zhuolei Sun,&nbsp;Yan Zhang,&nbsp;Yuyang Feng,&nbsp;Weipan Xu,&nbsp;Qiang Zhang,&nbsp;Minsheng Li,&nbsp;Xiangchuan Wang,&nbsp;Jing Ma","doi":"10.1007/s12061-026-10016-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12061-026-10016-z","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Amid escalating global economic uncertainty and the resurgence of trade protectionism in developed economies, exports have become increasingly important as a key driver of China’s economic growth, particularly under the deepening implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Existing studies have mainly focused on how economic structure, geographical location, and export complexity affect export resilience, while the role of bilateral political relations in shaping national trade patterns has received relatively limited attention. To address this gap, this study constructs political proximity using Chinese Customs trade data and CEPII bilateral political relations data covering the period from 2003 to 2019. It further quantifies the impact of political proximity on China’s export resilience and conducts heterogeneity analyses across provinces and products. The results show that: (1) during the early period (2003–2012), political proximity had no significant effect on provincial export resilience but exerted a significantly negative effect on product-level export resilience; (2) during the later period (2013–2019), following the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative, political proximity significantly enhanced export resilience at both the provincial and product levels; (3) the impact of political proximity on the export resilience of provinces with different levels of technology and products varies significantly. By incorporating political factors into the analytical framework of China’s export resilience, this study provides new evidence on the role of political linkages in shaping international trade and offers valuable policy implications for developing countries seeking to strengthen export resilience under an increasingly complex and uncertain global trading environment.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46392,"journal":{"name":"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy","volume":"19 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149132941","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}