Research in Economics最新文献_第7页

Investigating the impact of FDI on regional economic misery – A nonlinear panel data analysis 调查外国直接投资对地区经济痛苦的影响--非线性面板数据分析

IF 1.2

Research in Economics Pub Date : 2024-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-06-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2024.100983

Syed Jaffar Abbas , Noman Arshed , Asim Iqbal

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引用次数: 0

Resilient forces: The role of intangible capital in mitigating financial contagion dynamics 弹性力量：无形资本在缓解金融疫情动态中的作用

IF 1.2

Research in Economics Pub Date : 2024-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-09-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2024.101001

Çiğdem Ateş-Saygılı

引用次数: 0

Reading between the lines: Quantitative text analysis of banking crises 字里行间的解读：银行危机的定量文本分析

IF 1.2

Research in Economics Pub Date : 2024-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2024.101000

Emile du Plessis

{"title":"Reading between the lines: Quantitative text analysis of banking crises","authors":"Emile du Plessis","doi":"10.1016/j.rie.2024.101000","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rie.2024.101000","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Digital transformation entails new sources of economic information in the form of rich texts, which can provide a deeper understanding of banking sector developments. With textual data available and accessible in digital format, this paper develops three distinct indices based on a large corpus of economic news articles to forecast banking crises. The methodological approaches feature the identification of key topics within a large volume of texts. A Banking Crisis Lexicon Index and Sentiment Index are developed through analysing a vast number of economic articles to detect the evolution of banking sector discourse. Findings from Granger causality highlight leading indicator status of the Banking Crisis Lexicon Index, signalling a change in the banking crisis series four years in advance, accentuated by innovations from a VAR analysis using Cholesky decomposition, and substantiated by receiver operating characteristics with under the curve estimates suggesting robust predictive performance strength above 70%, on a global scale, for developed economies and crisis countries. Serving as benchmark, the Sentiment Index constitutes a concurrent indicator, which moves in tandem with the crisis series, thereby providing more granular information on banking developments. A combined Banking Crisis Lexicon and Sentiment Index exhibits solid forecasting performance, which is comparable to the Banking Crisis Lexicon Index, yet with shorter lead time. In a robustness test, German-based indices outperform those based on English reporting in a predominantly German speaking region, highlighting the value of textual analysis in the vernacular. In reading between the lines, this paper contributes to the literature on quantitative analyses of textual data in constructing text-based banking crisis indicators to support a preemptive policy response.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46094,"journal":{"name":"Research in Economics","volume":"78 4","pages":"Article 101000"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1090944324000644/pdfft?md5=97ee95e5b22414f4f6e4219a20c3aabd&pid=1-s2.0-S1090944324000644-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142274628","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Linking the BOPC growth model with foreign debt dynamics to goods and labour markets: A BOP-IXSM-Okun model 将 BOPC 增长模型与商品和劳动力市场的外债动态联系起来：BOP-IXSM-Okun 模型

IF 1.2

Research in Economics Pub Date : 2024-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-10-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2024.101007

Thomas H.W. Ziesemer

{"title":"Linking the BOPC growth model with foreign debt dynamics to goods and labour markets: A BOP-IXSM-Okun model","authors":"Thomas H.W. Ziesemer","doi":"10.1016/j.rie.2024.101007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rie.2024.101007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We link a BOPC growth model to the goods market, foreign debt dynamics, and Okun's law. A new condition for getting the Thirlwall effect of world GDP growth on domestic growth is that investment and export shares of GDP should react less to an increase in the domestic growth rate than savings and import shares. If this condition holds, the Thirlwall effect is present for the equilibrium point of stable and unstable debt/GDP dynamics and for positive or negative reactions of the current account to domestic growth. Okun's law translates the effect on the domestic GDP growth rate to a change of the unemployment rate. Under unstable debt/GDP dynamics, the change of world GDP growth may turn around the direction of the debt/GDP dynamics, a second important foreign growth effect. Estimations support the specification of the theoretical model and lead to simulations of the Thirlwall effect, terms of trade and interest rate shocks on output growth. Profit maximizing bank consortia set interest rates below growth rates ensuring stable debt dynamics in the presence of an interior maximum. Conditions for an interior maximum are empirically violated for Brazil indicating that banks would have to change the economy strongly. A crisis can be less likely through a jump into a steady state for the debt/GDP ratio; unstable, increasing debt/GDP processes through high interest rates cannot be ruled out though and may lead to crises unless the empirics of the stability conditions gets more favourable and leads the country-bank model into a stable steady state or out of indebtedness.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46094,"journal":{"name":"Research in Economics","volume":"78 4","pages":"Article 101007"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142424779","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Natural versus artificial herd immunity: Is vaccine research investment always optimal? 自然与人工群体免疫：疫苗研究投资总是最优的吗？

IF 0.6

Research in Economics Pub Date : 2024-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-06-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2024.100982

Stefano Bosi , Carmen Camacho , David Desmarchelier

引用次数: 0

Bayesian probability revision and infection prevention behavior in Japan: A quantitative analysis of the first wave of COVID-19 贝叶斯概率修正与日本的感染预防行为：COVID-19 第一波定量分析

IF 1.2

Research in Economics Pub Date : 2024-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-07-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2024.100986

Shin Kinoshita , Masayuki Sato , Takanori Ida

{"title":"Bayesian probability revision and infection prevention behavior in Japan: A quantitative analysis of the first wave of COVID-19","authors":"Shin Kinoshita , Masayuki Sato , Takanori Ida","doi":"10.1016/j.rie.2024.100986","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rie.2024.100986","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The relationship between cognitive biases and infection prevention behavior remains unexplored in the existing literature. This study uses data from a questionnaire survey conducted in Japan on the first wave of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) from February to May 2020 to empirically investigate the impact of Bayesian probability inference, the influence of cognitive biases of PCR test results on infection prevention behavior, and the discrepancy between infection prevention intentions and behaviors. We used a bivariate ordinal probit model when considering the correlation between behaviors. The results showed that the higher probability responses, implying pessimistic biases, were more likely to indicate that declaring a state of emergency was necessary and effective, and were more health-oriented in ensuring infection prevention behavior even at the expense of the economy. However, the study found that although they wanted to reduce the frequency of their outings and the number of people they met, they did not reduce them in terms of actual behavior change. It also found that those with pessimistic biases had a higher WTP for the vaccine.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46094,"journal":{"name":"Research in Economics","volume":"78 4","pages":"Article 100986"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141844538","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Does the Eurozone live in a Minskyan world? 欧元区生活在明斯基世界中吗？

IF 1.2

Research in Economics Pub Date : 2024-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-07-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2024.100984

Sébastien Charles

引用次数: 0

A stochastic-demographic model to explain success and dominance in international sports 解释国际体育赛事成功与主导地位的随机人口统计模型

IF 1.2

Research in Economics Pub Date : 2024-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-08-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2024.100990

Julian Alexander Klöcker, Frank Daumann

引用次数: 0

Effect of climate finance on environmental quality: A global analysis 气候融资对环境质量的影响：全球分析