Voprosy Ekonomiki最新文献

{"title":"Nonstandard consumption forms: A comparative analysis","authors":"V. V. Radaev","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2024-3-43-72","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2024-3-43-72","url":null,"abstract":"The author introduces a category of nonstandard consumption, which remarkably differs from conventional patterns of pursuing economic self-interests. Based upon previous studies, a comparative analysis of panic, impulsive and compulsive buying as well as status and ethical consumption is conducted. Empirically, spread of these forms of consumption and their associations with the consumer preferences are revealed along with antecedents of each form. Data were collected from a nationwide representative survey of the Russian population aged 18+. The survey was conducted by the HSE University in June—July 2023 in 55 regions of Russia as face-to-face interviews by place of residence. The sample includes 6,000 respondents. Apart from descriptive statistics, factor analysis is used for structuring consumer preferences and logistic regressions are used to estimate the main predictors of nonstandard forms of consumption. It has been revealed that all five forms of nonstandard consumption are associated at a high level of significance and characterize more active groups of consumers. Significant relations of each consumption form are investigated with the social and demographic parameters, per capita income, types of residence, involvement into online shopping, use of various information channels, and the level of psychological distress.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140255884","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Nowcasting the Russian economy macroeconomic indicators under uncertainty: Does taking into account the news sentiment help?","authors":"N. M. Makeeva, I. P. Stankevich, N. S. Lyubaykin","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2024-3-120-142","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2024-3-120-142","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper the following models are compared: restricted and unrestricted MIDAS-models (mixed data sampling models), MFBVAR-model (mixed frequency Bayesian vector autoregression), Linear model with regularization (MIDAS_L1-, MIDAS_L2and MIDAS_PC-model) and dynamic factor model. The results are compared with classical autoregression as a benchmark. Production indices for different industries and indicators characterizing Russian GDP and its components, energy prices and PMI of Russia and its main trading partners, as well as indicators derived from the analysis of sentiment of news articles published by a number of major media and blogs are used as explanatory variables. The paper also proposes a method of rapid assessment of the current state of the economy based on data for the first or first two months of the quarter in question only. The use of this approach in combination with news sentiment analysis allows to draw conclusions about current economic situation extremely rapidly. Models’ accuracy is assessed by cross-validation for periods before and after the Q2 2022, the significance of the effect of adding news variables is assessed using the Diebold—Mariano test. When testing during the crisis period (starting from the Q1 2022), the addition of news variables leads to an increase in accuracy for 45% of the models considered, and the average improvement (reduction in the average absolute error) was 1.39 points (the reduction in MAE for the science-based GDP growth rates of Russia is 0.64 p.p.). At the same time, in a calmer (pre-sanction) period, the advantage of news is less noticeable: an increase in accuracy was recorded in 30% of cases with an average decrease in error of 1.54 points (the decrease in MAE for Russia’s GDP growth rate is 0.26 p.p.), and the change accuracy of science data when adding variables reflecting the news background turns out to be statistically insignificant. Thus, the use of news sentiment is not a “silver bullet” in the task of nowcasting Russian GDP, but in times of crisis it can serve as a good and, importantly, very operative indicator of the state of the economy and can be used in conjunction with more traditional explanatory variables.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140254850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Does inequality make you angry?","authors":"V. Gimpelson, G. Monusova","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2024-3-73-95","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2024-3-73-95","url":null,"abstract":"Our study explores subjective inequality using two different measures. The first one is agreement with the statement that the gap between the rich and the poor is large. The second one is an emotional reaction to this gap in terms of intensity of anger. Using data from the International Social Survey Program (ISSP) for 2019, we show that these measures, though correlated, are not duplicates. The first finding is that respondents are more likely to state significant gaps than to admit a negative emotion related to this fact. The second finding is that these dimensions of subjective inequality are associated with different behavioral reactions. Agreeing that the income gaps are too large correlates with demand for redistribution more strongly than the anger does. As to being angry on the inequality, it is more strongly associated with perception of potential conflicts between the poor and the rich. In other words, even agreeing that income inequality is high many individuals do not internalize it and do not accept it as a problem that touches their emotional health.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140255901","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The relationship between the rate on unemployment and occupational injuries: A case of Russia","authors":"E. Zazdravnykh, T. I. Rodionova","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2024-2-145-158","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2024-2-145-158","url":null,"abstract":"This study aims to reveal how growth or decline in the rate of unemployment determines occupational injuries in Russia. Based on the regional statistics from 2009 to 2021 with the help of linear panel models we estimate the relationship between the rate of unemployment and fatal or non-fatal occupational injuries rates. The results show that when the economy is decreasing employees or employers prefer to underreport workplace accidents. This effect is especially strong in conditions of rising unemployment due to the release of workers, layoffs or liquidation of enterprises. At the same time, the fluctuations of unemployment do not change the fatal accidents; that is, injuries per se do not have a cyclical behavior. Thus, though there is a decreasing trend in the rate of occupational injuries in Russia, there is a problem of underreporting of accidents as we observe in high-income economies.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139798948","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Macroeconomic forecasting and macroeconomic forecasts","authors":"S. V. Smirnov, N. V. Kondrashov, A. S. Kachur","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2024-2-23-48","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2024-2-23-48","url":null,"abstract":"The specificity of macroeconomic forecasts is determined not so much by the list of predicted indicators or by mathematical tools used, but by the unavoidable human factor, which often generates great difference between forecasts made by various professionals. In Russian-language literature, this psychological aspect of macroeconomic forecasting has not received any attention; our work is designed to fill this gap. As a source of statistical data we used the forecasts extracted from the quarterly Poll of Professional Forecasters (PPF), which began in the first quarter of 2000. An analysis of real GDP and CPI forecasts made it possible to identify optimists and pessimists among independent experts, and also to show that the official forecasts by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development and the Bank of Russia are often too optimistic (with the possible exception of forecasts for a current year). It was also confirmed that the accuracy of consensus-forecasts exceeds (in the long run) not only that of official forecasts, but also forecasts made by the vast majority of independent experts. This asserts consensus-forecasts as a benchmark against which macroeconomic forecasts of other experts and organizations should be compared. An analysis of errors for different forecast horizons showed that in the medium term, the most significant ones are associated with underestimation of the resilience of the Russian economy to external shocks. This aspect of macroeconomic forecasting is closely related to forecasting cyclical dynamics (in particular, recessions, their beginning, depth and duration). Currently, this is just what requires additional attention by macroeconomic forecasters.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139858306","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Influence of preferential regimes on the Russian Far East development","authors":"G. Borshchevskiy","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2024-2-103-124","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2024-2-103-124","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of the study is to assess the impact of preferential regimes on the socio-economic development of territories on the example of the Far Eastern regions. We use both quantitative (e.g. regression and correlation analysis, modeling, method of averages, index method, “difference in differences”, factor analysis) and qualitative methods (document analysis, case-study, benchmarking, classification). The creation of preferential regimes, such as the Territory of Advanced Development, Free Port of Vladivostok, Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation, was a key element of the Far East development policy. To manage these preferential regimes a development institution has been created named Corporation for the Far East and the Arctic Development (CFEAD). We carried out the evaluation of the indicators of preferential regimes functioning and the socio-economic development of the Far Eastern regions. We identified the regions where these regimes have a positive impact on economic growth, and estimated the degree of the CFEAD’s assistance to their success. Also we worked out recommendations for optimizing preferential regimes and development institutions activities, which are acceptable both for the regions of the Far Eastern Federal District and in the all-Russian context.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139798507","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Austrian school of economics: Fundamental principles, methodology, institutional analysis and perspectives","authors":"A. Zaostrovtsev, V. V. Matveev","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2024-2-67-83","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2024-2-67-83","url":null,"abstract":"The article presents the main characteristics of the modern Austrian school. Its fundamental principles are shown, from which its remaining gap with the economic mainstream becomes obvious. The task is solved to demonstrate that the Austrian economics as its initial methodological foundation has not strict methodological individualism, but institutional individualism. It is not typical for it to see a person as the notorious homo economicus. The Austrian school is a kind of modern institutionalism, the historical roots of which go back to the writings of its founders. This is due to its inherent focus not on the allocation of resources, but on individual exchange (catallaxy). The latter needs good institutions. At the same time, informal institutions (beliefs, traditions) that determine the meaning of human actions are highlighted. The spontaneous order and one of its institutional forms — anarchy are considered. The article concludes with an appeal to the perspectives of Austrian economic thought — its potential contribution to various research programs.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139801372","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"State regulation of negative infrastructure-related externalities in the system of land relations","authors":"E. N. Bykova","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2024-2-125-144","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2024-2-125-144","url":null,"abstract":"The subject of the study is the system of land relations in Russia, the imperfection of which gives rise to negative infrastructural externalities caused by the modernization and development of linear engineering infrastructure The objective of the work is to develop methods for state regulation of the external effects, the main one of which is internalization through land taxation. In the work the concept of “negative infrastructure-related externalities”, their structure and economic nature in land relations are introduced. Also the consequences of negative infrastructure-related externalities on the economic interests of owners of encumbered land plots are determined. To overcome those issues the economic mechanism for regulating the use of land resources and their redistribution is developed. The scope of application of research results covers a lot of long-term aims: from the differentiation of land taxation for the internalization of negative infrastructure-related externalities to territorial planning at all levels.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139858625","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"High risks and weak pace of economic growth: Russia macroeconomic forecast for the medium term","authors":"A. L. Vedev, V. A. Eremkin, K. A. Tuzov","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2024-2-5-22","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2024-2-5-22","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines prospects for the Russian economy in the mid-term until 2026. The authors identify four key factors that determine future dynamics: sanctions, the state of foreign trade, relations between Russian and foreign businesses, policy of the government and the Bank of Russia. The basic scenario of our forecast is based on the most probable future trends in development of foreign trade, investment activity, industrial dynamics, changes in exchange rate of the national currency, inflationary picture and monetary policy. The conservative scenario takes into account the manifestation of some negative risks, probability of which the authors consider as quite high. For both scenarios, the authors offer a list of risks that can have a significant impact on the forecast values. Results of modeling economic dynamics indicate that in the medium-term Russia will face moderate recovery growth, and there will be no real opportunities to accelerate it. By the end of 2026, the Russian economy will increase in the range of 5.6—7.8% compared to the level of 2021. The results of the presented work can be used for a critical comparison with official forecasts of the Bank of Russia and the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation in order to improve the efficiency of budget planning for future periods.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139858783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Walras and Tugan-Baranovsky on socialism: Reconciling economic science and social ideal","authors":"N. A. Makasheva","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2024-2-49-66","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2024-2-49-66","url":null,"abstract":"Nowadays, Leon Walras (1839—1910) is well-known first and foremost for his “Elements of pure political economy, or the theory of public wealth” (1874, 1877) and Mikhail Ivanovich Tugan-Baranovsky (1865—1919) gained a wide recognition due to his book “Industrial crises in contemporary England: Their causes and influences on the life of the people” (1894), which had a significant impact on the development of economics. At the same time, both economists were deeply concerned not only with theoretical problems, but also with those that are now considered beyond the scope of theory, the problem of social ideal and that of a more just social system being among them. Walras and Tugan-Baranovsky associated the embodiment of the social ideal with socialism and strived for an economic system that corresponded to that ideal, albeit their conceptions of socialism being different. The principal opportunity to achieve reconciliation between science and ideal was associated with a synthetic approach reconciling the scientific method and ideal, economics being considered “a bridge” between them, or a «testing ground», where the reconciliation was to take place. Although history has shown that Walras’s and Tugan-Baranovsky’s ideas of socialism were utopian, the very fact that two eminent economists were deeply concerned with the problem of social ideal and socialism at a time when the foundations of modern economics were being laid, shows that the striving of economists to create objective and rigorous science was, to a measure, driven by their aspiration to solve the social problem and to set up a social and economic system which is rational and more just than the existing one","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139861634","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}