Voprosy Ekonomiki最新文献

{"title":"Methodology of the narrative analysis in economics: The case of the entrepreneurial networks","authors":"V. Tambovtsev, E. Buzulukova, L. Valitova, J. Deng, D. Sitkevich, A. M. Turabaeva","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2023-7-81-99","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2023-7-81-99","url":null,"abstract":"The  purpose  of  the  article is to provide   theoretical and  empirical evidence  that narrative analysis  in economics  is not an integral part of qualitative research  and  is quite compatible with  the  methodology of quantitative research. The development of methods for collecting and  processing data is one of the significant directions in the development of both  empirical and theoretical research  in economics. Of  particular importance to this  direction is the  consistent expansion of the  consideration of social  factors in the  study of decision-making  processes, both  at the micro  and  macro  levels. Narrative economics, which  has  emerged  and  developed in  the  last decade, is an  integral part of this  trend. The article proposes  and  substantiates a methodology for empirical analysis  of narratives considered as sources  of quantitative information used in decision  making. This  distinguishes it from  the  methods of narrative analysis used in qualitative research  in the  social  sciences, although they  are not always distinguished in the literature. The technique combines  the search  for the frequency  of occurrence of various  phrases  on the Internet with  interview analysis, which  significantly reduces  the  time and  effort required to search  and  analyze the necessary  information about social  factors. The  effectiveness of the  proposed  methodology is tested on the  example  of the  analysis  of narratives that characterize personal entrepreneurial networks, no statistical information about which  is collected, although the  networks  themselves play  an important role in the  formation of new small  businesses. The presented results of the  analysis show that the  technique makes it possible  to obtain useful  quantitative data on such objects of economic  research.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41584100","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Causes and lessons of accelerating global inflation","authors":"E. Goryunov, S. Drobyshevsky, A. Kudrin, P. Trunin","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2023-7-5-34","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2023-7-5-34","url":null,"abstract":"The world  economy  has recently experienced a strong inflationary shock, which  the leading research  institutions and central banks  were unable to predict. In advanced economies  inflation rates spiked  up to levels  had  not been seen for decades. Inflation also hit emerging  economies albeit the shocks of such magnitude are more common for the countries of this group. What was the reason of the inflationary wave of 2021-2002  and why was it unexpected? In the paper  we propose that the main driver  of inflation was the rapid  recovery  of aggregate demand  while aggregate supply  lagged  behind  since it was negatively affected by quarantine restrictions and  supply  chain  disruptions. A sharp  increase  in the  prices  of food and  energy  contributed to inflation significantly. Unprecedented fiscal  stimulus supported by liquidity injections from central banks  was also an important factor in boosting demand  and  accelerating inflation. Sharp  turn towards ultra­loose monetary and fiscal  policy  can be largely attributed to the  experience of the  previous decade  which  showed  that inflation in advanced economies  remained below the  target level, despite constant stimulus. We discuss  arguments considered by central banks when they kept monetary policy soft even after inflation significantly exceeded  the  target levels. Finally, we briefly  discuss scenarios  of possible  future inflation, including a stagflation scenario, and  analyze  their  underlying factors.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46613503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Man in a changing world: How to coordinate individual plans?","authors":"A. Shastitko, S. I. Fedorov","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2023-7-50-80","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2023-7-50-80","url":null,"abstract":"In 2022 political issues made significant adjustments to individual economic plans of hundreds of millions of people around the  world. Against this background, the idea  of  industrial regulation is gaining popularity again  as  a  means  to overcome the  shocks that have arisen. However, how effective is such a mechanism for coordinating efforts to adapt to changes? In our article, we propose  to look at the  problem through the  analysis  of two models  of man:  the  entrepreneur in Austrian economics  and  the  limited rational person  in the  transaction costs economics. Based  on the  results of the  analysis  we reconstruct the  process  of adapting the  market  (or industry) to the shock  using  a formalized model  of the  game  theory. The model  allows  us to demonstrate two key informational problems of adaptation to changes:  individuals’ limited rationality and  their heterogeneity in terms of “entrepreneurial alertness”. For  industrial policy, this means  the  expediency of comparing the  regulatory intervention’s benefits and costs during the  shock period, taking into account the  entrepreneurs’ advantage over the  regulator in the  collection and  use of dispersed knowledge.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42834203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Russia’s WTO membership: Assessing the impact on foreign trade","authors":"A. Kalinin","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2023-7-100-114","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2023-7-100-114","url":null,"abstract":"The  paper   assesses  some  of  the consequences of  Russia’s   accession  to the World Trade Organization (WTO). Whereas much discussion  about its costs and  benefits  happened during the WTO negotiations  and  in  the first years after the  accession, there  was little said  on the  real  consequences afterwards. The aim of the  research  is to assess the  degree  of fulfillment of the  accession expectations after a decade. The research  method is the  analysis  of panel  data on the world  trade for 2000-2019  (an econometric model based on the  gravity model of foreign  trade). It has been  established that the  WTO accession  ultimately benefited for  Russian  foreign  trade. However, this  effect has  been  offset by increased political tensions since 2014. The objections to the  WTO also turned out to be predominantly justified. The most positive economic  consequences of the  WTO exist for exporters of low value added  goods. The criticism of the  WTO participation by machine  builders is understandable: although they  are among the  beneficiaries, the  effects on exports and  imports are comparable.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48597687","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The house that Keynes built: Redecorating and overhaul of the monetary policy model","authors":"S. Moiseev","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2023-7-35-49","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2023-7-35-49","url":null,"abstract":"The regular economic crisis prompts macroeconomists to revise their  models. The monetary policy is no exception. As a result of the  “Great Recession” in 2007-2009 and  the  COVID-­19 pandemic in 2020-2021, they  were  forced  to refresh a look at the  monetary policy models that define central bank’s short­term interest rate decisions. The principles of the  New Keynesian economics  lie behind  most modern  models of monetary policy. A set of equations based on several  theoretical assumptions and simplifications leads to certain model conclusions. An active work to review the New Keynesian models in the 2020s is under  way. Key improvements include financial sector modeling; replacing rational expectations with  their alternatives, as well  as representative economic  agents with  heterogeneous ones; finding microeconomic foundations for assumptions; and  fiscal  policy  modeling.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43300494","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Long-term effects of extractive and inclusive institutions on entrepreneurship persistence in Russian regions","authors":"Stepan Zemtsov, Y. Tsareva","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2023-7-115-141","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2023-7-115-141","url":null,"abstract":"Some institutions can restrict or stimulate the  business activity, which affects long­term economic  growth. To assess this  influence on regional level, we have collected and processed  historical data on the  distribution of serfs, the  creation of universities, and  business  activity over  more  than a century. By business activity, we mean various  direct and  indirect assessments of the  involvement of the  population in entrepreneurial activity: merchants, NEPmen, cooperatives, small businesses, etc. Although the  geography of business  activity has constantly changed, we can  identify  relatively stable centers  (Moscow,  St. Petersburg, the  south  of the  Far Eastern Russia) and the  periphery (some regions of the  North Caucasus, the Central  Black   Earth  and   the Volga   regions).  Econometric calculations confirm  the  existence of a relationship between the  current density of small businesses  in the  Russian  regions and the  density of cooperatives in the  late Soviet period; the  relationship with  the  density of retail enterprises disappears by the 1970s as the planned economy  strengthens. But the relationship  with the  merchant class is ambiguous: only  in some regions  did  the  entrepreneurial culture manage  to survive  the  Soviet period. We distinguish three  main channels of  influence of  the historical level  of  business  activity on  the  modern  one: geographical, functional, and  socio­cultural.  According to the calculations, the  earlier  emergence  of universities in the  regions  contributed to the  spread  of business  culture and could stimulate the  emergence  of more inclusive institutions, but serfdom, as an extractive institution, on the  contrary, could  limit incentives for entrepreneurship. Even  after a radical change  in the  political and  economic regime, the  influence of extractive institutions on business  activity may persist, and  inclusive institutions take a significant amount of time to take root.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42194608","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"“Randomistas”: A new development economics","authors":"R. Kapeliushnikov","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2023-6-5-35","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2023-6-5-35","url":null,"abstract":"The paper explores a curious phenomenon in the modern economic science — the intellectual confrontation between proponents of new development economics (“randomistas”) and its opponents. The general message of the new approach is that the technique of randomized controlled trials/experiments (RCT) must be considered the only truly scientific method, and only this technique should be used in studying the problems of developing countries. RCTs have been recognized as the “gold standard” in evaluating the effectiveness of anti-poverty programs; today this approach absolutely dominates in development economics. The paper discusses the main features of the RCT economics: an inclination to imitate biomedical research; atheoretical character; the idea of a hierarchy of methods; reorientation from large-scale macroeconomic and institutional reforms to targeted social and humanitarian interventions. The problems of internal and external validity of RCT are highlighted. A general conclusion is that conceptually counter-arguments of critics look more convincing: the idea of a hierarchy of methods is unscientific; no methodological “gold standard” exists in economic analysis; estimates obtained on the basis of RCT cannot be considered unbiased; RCTs are almost powerless in the face of the problem of external validity; policy recommendations derived from RCTs are of very limited practical value. However, the logic of critics has been trumped by the rhetoric of randomistas: most likely, randomized experiments will escalate, and their intellectual and political influence will grow.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45496342","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Retail loan pricing determinants in Russia","authors":"H. Penikas","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2023-6-36-61","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2023-6-36-61","url":null,"abstract":"The research relies on the uniquely extracted dataset of loan offered rates at the start of 2022. We justify that the larger banks are more prone to disclose such offers. Content-wise we are able to disentangle the loan-specific credit risk factors and the bank risk-appetite drivers. We show that banks using own data and models to compute prudential ratios (IRB-banks) tend to evaluate the credit risk more conservatively than the rest of the banks.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48406951","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Finance and growth nexus in Russia: Does the SMEs channel matter?","authors":"K. Krinichansky, M. Yurevich, A. Fatkin","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2023-6-76-93","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2023-6-76-93","url":null,"abstract":"The paper presents the results of an analysis of the relationship between financial and economic development In Russian regions. The authors focus on one of the transmission channels of this relationship — the channel of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The issue of the SMEs’ dependence on the access to credit in the literature is generally considered separately from the issue of the impact of small business on economic dynamics. In this study, both issues are combined in one chain of the theoretical analysis and are examined with the help of an econometric model using credit depth measures as instrumental variables. To track the SMEs’ development, three variables were defined to characterize the size of the SME sector, the share of SMEs in the structure of the private sector, and the operational efficiency of small enterprises. Our data refer to the subjects of RF and cover the period from 2008 to 2019. The results confirm the Russian SMEs sector’s ability to act as a transmission channel from financial deepening to output growth. The most reliable variables are those characterizing the size of the SMEs sector in the region and the revenue of small firms per employee. Our findings support the conclusions made in a large number of works that provide evidence of the crucial importance of the conditions for access to external finance to raise the SMEs’ performance. The results we obtained also confirm that it would be reasonable to put special emphasis on overcoming obstacles in the access of SMEs to external financing when they take initiatives to develop SMEs in the regions.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44580802","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling of the corporate capital structure","authors":"E. G. Demidova, E. Bogatov","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2023-6-62-75","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2023-6-62-75","url":null,"abstract":"The capital structure is determined by the ratio of the company’s own and borrowed funds. It has a direct impact on the financial stability of the company, profit and return on equity. Thus a reasonable calculation of the value of the specified ratio is an urgent problem for any large enterprise. The correct ratio of borrowed and own capital in the structure of the aggregate corporate capital will allow to provide the specified return from the use of own capital in changing market conditions. The methodology of optimizing the structure of capital proposed by the authors is based on a formula for increasing return on equity (ROE) as a function of three variables — return on sales (ROS), resource productivity (Y) and equity multiplier M. The interpretation of the DuPont model as a model with lagged variables is original, which allows to predict the change in the equity multiplier at the expense of possible increase in other variables: resource productivity and return on sales, provided that the return on equity will reach the target level. There have been obtained formulas which allow modeling the structure of capital that guarantees a given profitability. The heuristic principle based on the three-factor model of DuPont ROE = ROS×Y×M, was that keeping the return on equity at the same level (as compared with the reference period) should entail compensation for the multidirectional dynamics of return on sales, resource productivity and equity multiplier. The paper considers three variants of the dependence of changes in the ratio of equity and borrowed capital of the company: when resource productivity is unchanged (ΔY = 0), when return on sales is unchanged (ΔROS = 0) and when both indicators change simultaneously (ΔY ≠ 0 and ΔROS ≠ 0). The methodology presented by the authors also allows to calculate the structure of capital which would provide a given level of return on equity ROE based on the forecast of return on assets ROS and return on sales Y with reference to the values of ROS and Y calculated in the reference period. We present the testing of this algorithm (in all three variants) on the basis of the reporting data of one of the metallurgical companies of Russia for the period 2017—2019.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44642282","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}