Voprosy Ekonomiki最新文献_第4页

Digitalization as a determinant of economic policy choice: Russian realities and world experience 数字化是经济政策选择的决定因素：俄罗斯现实与世界经验

IF 0.8

Voprosy Ekonomiki Pub Date : 2024-04-10 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2024-4-38-69

V. V. Mironov, A. O. Kuznetsov

{"title":"Digitalization as a determinant of economic policy choice: Russian realities and world experience","authors":"V. V. Mironov, A. O. Kuznetsov","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2024-4-38-69","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2024-4-38-69","url":null,"abstract":"The article considers digitalization as a new general purpose technology and its impact on economic growth and economic policy in the world and Russia against the background of the so-called “productivity paradoxes” and economic shocks of 2020—2023. The importance of accelerating the growth of total factor productivity in Russia through the introduction of advanced digital technologies is shown. The world experience in assessing the impact of digital information and communication technologies on economic growth is briefly described, and an adapted methodology for assessing macroeconomic effects of economic policy, previously used by experts from the OECD and the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia at the level of country groups, is proposed and tested on a panel of Russian regions. The authors calculated the original series of contributions of labor, capital and total factor productivity to the GRP growth of Russian regions for the period 2011—2020. This makes possible to compare the benefits of digitalization and the rate of accumulation of digital capital in Russia and in other countries . The article discusses the desirable parameters of short-term macroeconomic stabilization tools and some aspects of developing the national innovation system.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140716518","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Social norms and the dynamics of observers' education 社会规范和观察员教育的动力

IF 0.8

Voprosy Ekonomiki Pub Date : 2024-04-10 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2024-4-24-37

K. A. Bukin, M. I. Levin

{"title":"Social norms and the dynamics of observers' education","authors":"K. A. Bukin, M. I. Levin","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2024-4-24-37","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2024-4-24-37","url":null,"abstract":"The paper presents a dynamical extension of the wellknown Bernheim— Cartwright—Patel model of conformism. In this model the signaling equilibrium is a result of the optimal choice of an individual when he/she maximizes his/ her utility by choosing a donation in the amount x. In doing this the individual takes into account the intrinsic utility based on the generosity type t, and social attitude expressed by two types of observers: rational and naïve. Such an attitude significantly depends on social norms in this society and affects the esteem of the individual. Social attitude toward generosity varies within the broad range and at its endpoints leads to either neglect of the society (I do not care what people think of me) or an ideal conformism when a person chooses the same x as the rest of the public. Cartwright and Patel have shown that the presence of the inexperienced observers greatly affects equilibrium. This paper explores the dynamics of the naïve observers when they are informed by the rational ones. The dynamic law in the form of the differential equation was set and the stable steadystate solutions were found. Besides, while working on the dynamic law some clarifications of the preceding results of the original model were done.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140719853","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Fiscal multipliers and income inequality (The case of OECD countries, Russia and China) 财政乘数与收入不平等（经合组织国家、俄罗斯和中国的案例）

IF 0.8

Voprosy Ekonomiki Pub Date : 2024-04-10 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2024-4-111-126

M. Dorofeev

引用次数: 0

Modeling the demographic situation in the regions by agent-based approach 用基于代理的方法模拟各地区的人口状况

IF 0.8

Voprosy Ekonomiki Pub Date : 2024-04-10 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2024-4-127-147

E. N. Timushev, Yulia V. Dubrovskaya, E. Kozonogova

{"title":"Modeling the demographic situation in the regions by agent-based approach","authors":"E. N. Timushev, Yulia V. Dubrovskaya, E. Kozonogova","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2024-4-127-147","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2024-4-127-147","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of the paper is to predict demographic changes at the regional level, based on the variation of the parameters of the healthcare system presumed to be a significant factor in both the number of population and its qualitative characteristics. It is assumed that a reform of the healthcare system reflects the institutional nature of state regulation and serves functionally as an exogenous shock in the model. Based on the agent-based modeling a model consisting of two regions has been developed. It takes into account the migration of agents making decisions based on the level of private income. Various scenarios for modeling demographic indicators are presented, depending on the selected quality regime of the healthcare system that reflects the institutional features of the region. The model is calculated based on the statistics for the Perm Region and the Sverdlovsk Region for the period 2012—2019. The approbation of the model on actual regional data confirmed its operability and adequacy. Shocks in the healthcare system are associated with the corresponding budget expenditures under budget constraints of the regional government sector and have an impact on the dynamics of migration at regional labor markets, as well as on the simulated health indicators. The simulation results confirm the effectiveness of the presented methodological approach, which can be used in the development of regional strategies, as well as planning and assessing the consequences of state reforms in social policy.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140718828","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Assessing the predictability of the Bank of Russia decisions on the key rate and informational advantage in its forecasting 评估俄罗斯银行关键利率决策的可预测性及其预测的信息优势

IF 0.8

Voprosy Ekonomiki Pub Date : 2024-04-10 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2024-4-70-91

M. I. Abdurakhmanov

{"title":"Assessing the predictability of the Bank of Russia decisions on the key rate and informational advantage in its forecasting","authors":"M. I. Abdurakhmanov","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2024-4-70-91","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2024-4-70-91","url":null,"abstract":"The communication policy of central banks plays a significant role in setting the expectations of economic agents. If key rate decisions are inconsistent with market expectations, managing expectations and anchoring inflation expectations may be difficult. We assess the predictability of the Bank of Russia’s key rate decisions over the 2021—2023 period in two ways: using media surveys of analysts and shifts in the Russian government bond index and the daily volatility of its yield. The results show a significant impact of unexpected key rate decisions on Russian government bond prices and daily volatility. Then, using statistical metrics computed from macroeconomic survey data and another linear and piecewise linear model, we find the informational advantage of the Bank of Russia in predicting the key rate. The decisions unexpected for the market are explained by the information advantage of the Bank of Russia, as well as the realization of geopolitical and inflation risks in the period under study. Thus, we conclude that there is a need to improve the quality of communication regarding future decisions. As the communication policy develops, the predictability of the Bank of Russia’s decisions on the key rate will increase. In turn, economic agents and market participants will adapt to the expected decisions in advance, which will accelerate the achievement of the inflation target and the adjustment of inflation expectations.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140717020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Paradoxes of the digital ruble implementation in monetary turnover 在货币流通中实施数字卢布的悖论

IF 0.8

Voprosy Ekonomiki Pub Date : 2024-04-09 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2024-4-148-158

E. Dyudikova, N. N. Kunitsyna

{"title":"Paradoxes of the digital ruble implementation in monetary turnover","authors":"E. Dyudikova, N. N. Kunitsyna","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2024-4-148-158","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2024-4-148-158","url":null,"abstract":"Russia, which is actively piloting the Digital Ruble project, has become the first country to legislate the turnover of the central bank’s digital currency. At the same time, the embodiment of the competitive balance between “electronic private and digital honest” for the interaction of the information society in a virtual environment, which makes it possible to turn the lack of understanding (indirect participation) into a trust relationship (direct participation) with full optional financial support in the contour of the national metaverse, has not yet been implemented in practice. The relevance and desirability of the study is due to insufficient research on the integration of high-tech financial products into the monetary system in the focus of a full-scale digital transformation of the entire financial system, as well as the lack of a carefully developed legal framework for the implementation of central banks digital currencies on a global scale. The need to achieve this goal determined a phased study of regulatory, statistical and periodic literature using general scientific and special research methods: systemic and interdisciplinary approaches, formal logic, comparative analysis, classification, etc. The authors have found that the digital ruble does not correspond to the category of ideal digital currency in the context of digital (crypto) units and identified the discussion provisions for regulating the transformation processes of the digital ruble implementation into monetary turnover. As a result, we have specified the nature of monetary innovation at the stage of economic bifurcation metamorphoses.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140727055","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Pandemic, sanctions and anxiety in Russia’s regions: Business expectations nowcasting 大流行病、制裁和俄罗斯各地区的焦虑：商业预期预测

IF 0.8

Voprosy Ekonomiki Pub Date : 2024-03-10 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2024-3-96-119

A. Fedyunina, M. Yurevich, N. A. Gorodny

{"title":"Pandemic, sanctions and anxiety in Russia’s regions: Business expectations nowcasting","authors":"A. Fedyunina, M. Yurevich, N. A. Gorodny","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2024-3-96-119","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2024-3-96-119","url":null,"abstract":"The study develops a methodology of business expectations index nowcasting with testing on data for the Russian economy as a whole and its regions. This methodology differs from the existing solutions in that it introduces a Bayesian averaging approach to define a set of search patterns for nowcasting and solves the issue of aggregation of time series by individual queries. The developed indices have shown a high level of adequacy, serving as effective tools to reflect shock events in the country’s economic and political landscape and also as predictors of fluctuations in surveybased expectation indices. The application of the presented methodology has revealed the factors that affect the volatility of business expectations indices depending on the level of development and sectoral specialization of Russian regions. In particular, financial and economic centers of highly developed regions and developed regions with diversified economy show high volatility, while business expectations indices in less developed agrarian and commodity regions show low volatility. These results can be useful for economic policy decisions and are of interest to researchers concerned with economic stability and forecasting.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140255289","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The concept of banking capital risk-sensitivity revisited 银行资本风险敏感性概念再探讨

IF 0.8

Voprosy Ekonomiki Pub Date : 2024-03-10 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2024-3-27-42

A. Simanovskiy

{"title":"The concept of banking capital risk-sensitivity revisited","authors":"A. Simanovskiy","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2024-3-27-42","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2024-3-27-42","url":null,"abstract":"The article studies the foundations of the risk-sensitivity concept of regulatory banking capital. The author states that risk of losses, including unexpected ones covered in accordance with the concept by banking capital cannot be measured with satisfactory accuracy. This is the principal obstacle to the concept implementation. The efficacy of Basel III capital regime with parallel use of risk-sensitive and risk-insensitive approaches is under scrutiny. Rationales are adduced that under this regime risk-sensitive approach has no real value. The study of risk-sensitive approach abilities among macro-prudential tools leads to the conclusion that its efficiency is apparently insufficient. The analysis of the academic study on the issue is carried out. This research recommends to impose risk-sensitive capital requirements if the risk of bank assets can be measured quite accurately. It is shown that the study is based on the implicit assumption of the absence of unexpected losses phenomenon in banking activity. This assumption is unrealistic and makes research in effect objectless. The major inference from the study is that the regulatory capital risk-sensitivity concept is not well-founded and its use for capital adequacy regulation is inadvisable. For micro-prudential purposes the simple leverage deems more expedient. It is capable to ensure for capital regulation the reasonable balance of risk-sensitivity to failure, simplicity and comparability.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140255054","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Post-institutionalism versus economic science: Critical analysis 后制度主义与经济科学：批判性分析

IF 0.8

Voprosy Ekonomiki Pub Date : 2024-03-10 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2024-3-143-159

D. Trubitsyn

引用次数: 0

Financial structure: A new aspect of analysis and new results 财务结构：分析的新方面和新成果

IF 0.8

Voprosy Ekonomiki Pub Date : 2024-03-10 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2024-3-5-26

Yuri Danilov, D. A. Pivovarov

{"title":"Financial structure: A new aspect of analysis and new results","authors":"Yuri Danilov, D. A. Pivovarov","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2024-3-5-26","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2024-3-5-26","url":null,"abstract":"There is growing evidence that the financial structure depends on the level of economic development of the country. In developed countries, firstly, there is a convergence of financial structures and, secondly, an increase in the share of non-bank financial intermediation sectors in national financial systems. Therefore, we propose to proceed to the analysis of the three-tier structure of the financial sector (banks — non-banking financial institutions — financial markets), for which we have developed new indicators that assess the relationship between a non-bank financial intermediation sector and financial markets. They showed that in the last 7—8 years in Russia there has also been an outstripping growth of this sector. Our regression studies, firstly, have confirmed the conclusion that in Russia the financial structure (in the traditional sense) slows down economic growth and, secondly, allowed us to assume (based on the results of a crosscountry analysis) that the current structure of the Russian financial sector (with a predominant share of banks) contributes to an increase in the volatility of economic growth. The behavior of the new financial structure ratios and regression analysis based on traditional financial structure ratios indicate the need to adjust government policy in the financial sector in order to ensure faster growth of financial markets.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140255447","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0