Asian Economic Policy Review最新文献

{"title":"Comment on “Discriminatory Tariffs, Trade Diversion, and the Economic Impacts of Recent U.S. Trade Policy”","authors":"Ayako Obashi","doi":"10.1111/aepr.70026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/aepr.70026","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Kumagai (<span>2026</span>) provides a quantitative assessment of the economic consequences of US reciprocal tariffs using the Institute of Developing Economies' Geographical Simulation Model (IDE-GSM), a spatial computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with a rich geographical structure. Kumagai shows that the reciprocal tariffs generate negative-sum outcomes and that those losses are transmitted through different mechanisms across countries and sectors. Kumagai’s arguments can be organized around three main points. First, Kumagai highlights the discriminatory structure of the reciprocal tariffs and the resulting trade diversions as the main source of heterogeneous outcomes across countries other than the US and China. Second, Kumagai explains why the US itself emerges as the largest loser through the interaction of higher consumer prices, rising intermediate input sourcing costs, and uneven sectoral effects. Third, he shows that deeper regional integration mitigates part of those losses.</p><p>The first point constitutes the analytical core of Kumagai (<span>2026</span>). Trade diversion is not, by itself, unique to the US reciprocal tariff episode. Similar effects arise in an earlier US-China trade conflict. What distinguishes the reciprocal tariff regime examined here is that it is partner-specific and therefore discriminatory. Countries experience a direct negative effect when their exports to the US become less competitive because of higher tariffs imposed by the US, but they may also benefit indirectly if the US tariffs on China, for example, are even higher and trade is diverted in their favor. Under such a discriminatory regime, what matters is not simply the US tariff level each country faces in absolute terms, but its tariff position relative to competing exporters, especially China. Differences in outcomes across third countries are therefore shaped primarily by relative US tariff differentials vis-à-vis China rather than by absolute tariff levels alone. Recent empirical evidence, such as Hayakawa's (<span>2026</span>) analysis of the trade effects of the US tariffs under Trump 2.0, provides complementary empirical support for the proposition that relative tariff differentials vis-à-vis China matter for third-country outcomes.</p><p>This logic also has important policy implications for the world trading system. US reciprocal tariffs not only reduce welfare, even though part of their effect may be offset through trade diversion, but also make relative tariff positions increasingly important in shaping the incentives facing third countries. Some countries have incentives to negotiate individually with the US to obtain less disadvantageous tariff rates, while others are adversely affected by the redistribution of tariff burdens brought about by those same bilateral adjustments. The discriminatory tariff structure therefore creates a coordination failure of its own. Even though a worldwide optimal response may be to avoid a hasty rec","PeriodicalId":45430,"journal":{"name":"Asian Economic Policy Review","volume":"21 2","pages":"131-132"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/aepr.70026","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148533138","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Infrastructure, Connectivity, and Regional Development: Evidence From a Spatial CGE Model of the North–South Commuter Railway","authors":"Julia Bird,&nbsp;Liming Chen,&nbsp;Arturo Corpuz,&nbsp;Eugenia Go,&nbsp;Rana Hasan,&nbsp;Yi Jiang","doi":"10.1111/aepr.70030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/aepr.70030","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The North–South Commuter Rail (NSCR) will dramatically alter the transport network for the most economically vibrant regions in the Philippines. This paper develops a spatial computable general equilibrium model to consider how this infrastructure will change the economic opportunities in the rail catchment area of about 10,000 km². Calibrated on the state of the economy in 2020, the results suggest that by itself, the NSCR has limited economic impact compared to the baseline by 2040. The NSCR’s substantial potential to spur growth can only be realized when accompanied by land market reforms that accommodate urban development even as environmentally-sensitive areas remain protected. This increases the area’s gross value-added by 3.7% relative to the baseline. Coupling land market reforms with policies to reduce business costs in strategic locations ensures that the rail has the greatest impact, however the marginal benefit of each industrial cluster is influenced by the strength of agglomeration economies.</p>\u0000 <p><b>JEL Classification:</b> O2, R1, R3</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":45430,"journal":{"name":"Asian Economic Policy Review","volume":"21 2","pages":"184-199"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148533798","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Construction and Opening Effects of a Large-Scale Bridge Project on Real Estate Prices: Evidence From the Mumbai Trans Harbour Link","authors":"Hana Ashida,&nbsp;Tetsuya Harada,&nbsp;Fumiaki Ishizuka,&nbsp;Kentaro Nakajima,&nbsp;Yasuyuki Sawada,&nbsp;Annie Srivastava","doi":"10.1111/aepr.70035","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/aepr.70035","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Large-scale transport infrastructure can reshape urban land markets by changing accessibility, yet causal evidence on large-scale bridge projects remains limited, especially in developing countries. This paper examines the impact of the Mumbai Trans Harbour Link (MTHL), which opened in January 2024, on real estate prices in the Mumbai City District. Using parcel-level panel data from the Annual Statement of Rates for 2014–2025 and a difference-in-differences design based on distance to the bridge entrance ramp, we find that properties located closer to the MTHL experienced higher price increases after the bridge opened. The evidence is strongest in specifications that exclude parcels located near other major transport infrastructure, helping address concerns about overlapping development effects. The results are also consistent with capitalization beginning around the construction phase, suggesting that expectations about improved accessibility were at least partly reflected in property values before the bridge became operational. This trend disappears when land parcels in the more remote areas of the Mumbai Suburban District are included, suggesting that the impact of the MTHL attenuates with distance, although this pattern may not be fully captured by linear distance measures, particularly given differences in urban structure between the City and Suburban districts. These findings indicate that major investments in urban transport can be quickly capitalized in nearby property values in dense metropolitan settings, highlighting the importance of local spatial context in infrastructure evaluations.</p>","PeriodicalId":45430,"journal":{"name":"Asian Economic Policy Review","volume":"21 2","pages":"204-218"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/aepr.70035","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148522859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comment on “Discriminatory Tariffs, Trade Diversion, and the Economic Impacts of Recent U.S. Trade Policy”","authors":"Yusuke Kuroishi","doi":"10.1111/aepr.70038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/aepr.70038","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45430,"journal":{"name":"Asian Economic Policy Review","volume":"21 2","pages":"129-130"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148532808","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Discriminatory Tariffs, Trade Diversion, and the Economic Impacts of Recent U.S. Trade Policy","authors":"Satoru Kumagai","doi":"10.1111/aepr.70027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/aepr.70027","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This paper examines the economic impacts of trade wars and economic decoupling using the Institute of Developing Economies' Geographical Simulation Model (IDE-GSM), focusing on Trump's “reciprocal tariff” policies announced on April 2 and July 31, 2025. Simulation analysis reveals that protectionist trade policies generate substantial negative-sum outcomes, with the United States experiencing GDP contractions of 3.0%–5.2% and the global economy declining by 0.8%–1.3%. The analysis shows that relative tariff rates across countries, rather than absolute levels, become the primary determinant of economic impacts for individual countries. Regional economic integration emerges as an effective mitigation strategy, with RCEP deepening generating 1.4 percentage-point gains in GDP and CPTPP deepening providing 0.6 percentage-point gains for member countries.</p>\u0000 <p><b>JEL Classification:</b> F13, F15, F17.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":45430,"journal":{"name":"Asian Economic Policy Review","volume":"21 2","pages":"114-128"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148533009","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comment on “Construction and Opening Effects of a Large-Scale Bridge Project on Real Estate Prices: Evidence From the Mumbai Trans Harbor Link”","authors":"Mari Tanaka","doi":"10.1111/aepr.70042","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/aepr.70042","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;Many large coastal cities eventually face land scarcity, chronic congestion, and rising land prices as they grow, making expansion across bays or harbors a plausible development strategy. In that respect, the Mumbai case studied in Ashida et al. (&lt;span&gt;2026&lt;/span&gt;) is especially informative. Ashida et al. study a bridge construction project that appears closely connected to a broader process of coastal metropolitan expansion toward the opposite shore of Mumbai Bay.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;More specifically, Ashida et al. examine a large-scale bridge project in a setting where the two sides of Mumbai Bay were not fully disconnected, but were previously linked only through a highly indirect and congested road network. Their contribution, therefore, is not simply to show that transport infrastructure matters for land prices, but to document patterns of land-price capitalization that are consistent with improved connectivity in an already connected metropolitan area. This makes Ashida et al. (&lt;span&gt;2026&lt;/span&gt;) a useful addition to the literature on urban transport infrastructure, particularly because it highlights a case in which a bridge changes the effective geography of a metropolitan area.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;A further contribution of Ashida et al. (&lt;span&gt;2026&lt;/span&gt;) is that they are careful about the practical empirical difficulty of evaluating a single transport project in a megacity where multiple infrastructure investments overlap in time and space. I find the robustness checks excluding areas located close to other major transportation projects particularly valuable. These exercises strengthen the interpretation that the estimated price responses are not merely picking up nearby concurrent developments. In that sense, Ashida et al. (&lt;span&gt;2026&lt;/span&gt;) contribute to the literature of urban infrastructure evaluation by showing one useful way to approach infrastructure evaluation in a complex urban environment.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;At the same time, Ashida et al. (&lt;span&gt;2026&lt;/span&gt;) open several promising avenues for future research. First, it would be valuable to relate the land-price results more directly to changes in accessibility and congestion. In this setting, the relevant mechanism is likely to operate not simply through physical proximity, but also through changes in travel times, route choices, and traffic conditions around access points and connecting roads. It would be especially helpful to know whether the bridge reduced congestion for some locations while increasing traffic pressure near specific ramps or corridors.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Second, an important question is whether the observed appreciation of land prices reflects net value creation for the metropolitan economy or a spatial reallocation of demand within Mumbai. This distinction matters for policy interpretation. Relatedly, it would be useful to consider how far the increase in land prices reflects speculative expectations about future development rather than realized economic gains, and to complement the land-price evidence ","PeriodicalId":45430,"journal":{"name":"Asian Economic Policy Review","volume":"21 2","pages":"219-220"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/aepr.70042","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148532650","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comment on “Connectivity Gains From Regional Integration in the Greater Mekong Subregion”","authors":"Lianming Zhu","doi":"10.1111/aepr.70040","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/aepr.70040","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45430,"journal":{"name":"Asian Economic Policy Review","volume":"21 2","pages":"182-183"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148532880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Trade and FDI Policies in an Interdependent World: Lessons From East Asia","authors":"Cheng Chen,&nbsp;Zhang Chen,&nbsp;Chang Sun","doi":"10.1111/aepr.70024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/aepr.70024","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this article, we examine the spillover effects of trade and FDI policy changes on countries that are not directly involved—that is third markets. Specifically, we investigate this issue using two cases: anti-dumping tariffs imposed on Chinese exports and China's relaxation of restrictions on inward FDI. Our findings suggest that country-specific tariffs do not necessarily lead to increased exports being redirected to non-sanctioning countries—a phenomenon known as trade deflection. We also find that China's unilateral FDI liberalization prompted structural changes within Japanese multinational firms by reinforcing global value chains. Finally, we discuss how other barriers to trade and FDI flows—such as geopolitical tensions and health shocks—affect the behavior of Japanese multinational and domestic firms.</p>","PeriodicalId":45430,"journal":{"name":"Asian Economic Policy Review","volume":"21 2","pages":"133-142"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/aepr.70024","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148532509","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Connectivity Gains From Regional Integration in the Greater Mekong Subregion","authors":"Yesim Elhan-Kayalar,&nbsp;Konstantin Kucheryavyy,&nbsp;Manabu Nose,&nbsp;Yasuyuki Sawada,&nbsp;Ruo Shangguan","doi":"10.1111/aepr.70031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/aepr.70031","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We provide new evidence of the effects of road construction on both domestic and international trade flows in the People's Republic of China (PRC) using customs records, satellite imageries, and transport investments data in the region, including those supported by multilateral development banks. We find that road construction helped to reduce trade costs significantly from 2000 to 2011, supporting the catch-up of inland regions in the PRC to its coastal cities. According to our estimates, the ad valorem rate of internal trade costs decreases by 13.4%, and the ad valorem rate of international trade costs decreases, on average, by 23.8%. Using satellite and customs data, we also document that the construction of the Kunming–Bangkok Expressway led to local economic growth and higher regional specialization in accordance with comparative advantage, suggesting the role of the road infrastructure in facilitating market integration across borders in the Greater Mekong Subregion.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":45430,"journal":{"name":"Asian Economic Policy Review","volume":"21 2","pages":"165-179"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148533401","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Connectivity and Economic Reconfiguration in Asia: Editors' Overview","authors":"Kazumasa Iwata,&nbsp;Jong-Wha Lee,&nbsp;Colin McKenzie,&nbsp;Yasuyuki Sawada,&nbsp;Shujiro Urata","doi":"10.1111/aepr.70041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/aepr.70041","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45430,"journal":{"name":"Asian Economic Policy Review","volume":"21 2","pages":"105-113"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148533208","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}