{"title":"Comment on “the Normalization of Wage Dynamics”","authors":"Emiko Usui","doi":"10.1111/aepr.12512","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/aepr.12512","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45430,"journal":{"name":"Asian Economic Policy Review","volume":"20 2","pages":"249-250"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144646978","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Comment on “Economic Security and New Industrial Policy”","authors":"Arata Kuno","doi":"10.1111/aepr.12511","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/aepr.12511","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45430,"journal":{"name":"Asian Economic Policy Review","volume":"20 2","pages":"276-277"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647056","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Evolution of Inflation Expectations in Japan","authors":"Shin-ichi Fukuda, Naoto Soma","doi":"10.1111/aepr.12504","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/aepr.12504","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The purpose of this study is to examine how inflation expectations evolved on a sustained basis in Japan. In the analysis, we define the “anchor of inflation expectations” as inflation expectations excluding the expected effects of the GDP gap and supply shocks. We examine the extent to which the “anchor of inflation expectations” has changed using Japanese forecaster-level data. The estimated anchors increased significantly after the Bank of Japan launched unprecedented monetary easing in 2013. However, the increases were not only modest but also temporary. In contrast, the estimated anchors continued to rise after the global supply shocks became noticeable in 2022. However, the increased anchors of medium-term inflation expectations are still about the same as in 2014–2015. The Japanese economy may not be able to achieve the 2% target on a sustainable basis without additional changes, such as an improvement in consumer sentiment through real wage increases.</p>","PeriodicalId":45430,"journal":{"name":"Asian Economic Policy Review","volume":"20 2","pages":"207-217"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/aepr.12504","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647847","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Normalization of Wage Dynamics","authors":"Takeo Hoshi, Anil K. Kashyap","doi":"10.1111/aepr.12503","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/aepr.12503","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In an article published in 2021, Hoshi and Kashyap find that the link between wage inflation and labor market conditions in Japan changed starting in the late 1990s. The link between wage inflation and price inflation also disappeared around the same time. Two factors were identified as the main reasons why wages became less sensitive to the tightness of the labor market: firms' labor hoarding of full-time workers and an increasing reliance on newly hired part-time workers. Both of these factors started to disappear by the late 2010s. After re-confirming the main results in the 2021 article by Hoshi and Kashyap, this paper finds that wage inflation has become sensitive to the unemployment rate (an important labor indicator). We also find weak evidence that the link between wage inflation and price inflation might be re-emerging.</p>","PeriodicalId":45430,"journal":{"name":"Asian Economic Policy Review","volume":"20 2","pages":"237-246"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/aepr.12503","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647824","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Comment on “Fiscal Projections and Debt Sustainability in Japan”","authors":"Etsuro Shioji","doi":"10.1111/aepr.12510","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/aepr.12510","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45430,"journal":{"name":"Asian Economic Policy Review","volume":"20 2","pages":"233-234"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647825","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Comment on “The Normalization of Wage Dynamics”","authors":"Daiji Kawaguchi","doi":"10.1111/aepr.12509","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/aepr.12509","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Since the mid-1990s, the Japanese economy has experienced stagnation in both prices and wages. This stickiness in prices and wages has been considered a key factor behind Japan's three decades of economic stagnation. Consequently, Japanese policymakers have aimed to stimulate price and wage inflation since the early 2010s. Identifying the sources of this stagnation has long been a critical objective for effective policy design.</p><p>The current paper, Hoshi and Kashyap (<span>2025</span>), is a follow-up to Hoshi and Kashyap (<span>2021</span>), which examines the causes of wage stagnation. In their earlier work, Hoshi and Kashyap report that wage stagnation was because of the weakened link between labor market tightness—measured by the unemployment rate—and wage growth. Regardless of the level of unemployment, wage growth remained stagnant, a phenomenon described as a flattening of the Phillips curve. With a flattened Phillips curve, labor market tightness no longer translates into wage inflation.</p><p>Hoshi and Kashyap (<span>2021</span>) identify two key factors contributing to this phenomenon. The first was surplus employment generated by firms' labor hoarding behavior. When firms experience positive shocks, they utilize their hoarded labor instead of raising wages to attract new workers. The second factor was the elastic labor supply of women. Since the mid-1980s, middle-aged married women, who traditionally remained outside the labor force, have increasingly joined the workforce. This additional labor supply has flattened the labor supply curve and suppressed wage growth. Hoshi and Kashyap's (<span>2021</span>) main conclusion is straightforward: Until surplus labor, both within firms and in the labor market, is exhausted, wage growth will not materialize.</p><p>Hoshi and Kashyap (<span>2025</span>) now report that wage growth has become more responsive to changes in labor market tightness, based on data from 2019 to 2023. They argue that this normalization of the Phillips curve is because of the depletion of hoarded labor within firms and the stabilization of women's labor force participation. Their claim is supported by firm responses to the government's Survey of Labour Economy Trends, which indicate a decline in surplus labor within firms, as well as the plateauing of middle-aged women's labor force participation rates.</p><p>Hoshi and Kashyap (<span>2025</span>) is a logical, straightforward, and convincing paper on an undoubtedly important issue. The findings are highly relevant to policymakers, providing a positive outlook on achieving a virtuous cycle of wage and price inflation—a central principle guiding the economic policies of both the former Kishida administration and the current Ishiba administration.</p><p>With that said, I would like to highlight the following points that are not addressed in the current paper: The impact of population decline and the declining importance of bonus payments.</p><p>Japan's working-age pop","PeriodicalId":45430,"journal":{"name":"Asian Economic Policy Review","volume":"20 2","pages":"247-248"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/aepr.12509","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647839","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Fiscal Projections and Debt Sustainability in Japan","authors":"Mitsuru Katagiri, Junko Koeda, Hiroaki Miyamoto, Makoto Nirei, Takashi Unayama","doi":"10.1111/aepr.12508","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/aepr.12508","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Japan's government debt, currently at approximately 250% of GDP, is the highest among the advanced economies and raises significant concerns about fiscal sustainability. This paper employs debt sustainability analysis to assess Japan's long-term fiscal sustainability given a backdrop of rising inflation and potential increases in interest rates because of the normalization of monetary policy. Our baseline scenario projects a persistent primary deficit leading to a divergent debt-to-GDP trajectory, underscoring the need for some fiscal adjustments.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":45430,"journal":{"name":"Asian Economic Policy Review","volume":"20 2","pages":"222-232"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647840","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Japan's Aging Workforce: Determinants and Outlook","authors":"Sagiri Kitao, Nozomi Takeda","doi":"10.1111/aepr.12506","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/aepr.12506","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This paper examines recent trends in the Japanese labor market, with a particular focus on the elderly workforce. Japan's elderly employment rates are notably high compared to other OECD countries and have increased significantly over the past two decades. To investigate the factors that affect the employment of old individuals, we develop a structural life-cycle model with consumption-saving decisions and endogenous labor supply in both intensive and extensive margins. The model is calibrated to the cohort of men born in 1936–1940. We find that social security reforms to raise the retirement age by 5 years and reduce the replacement rate by 20% would have increased labor force participation among men in their 60s from 58% to 69% and 67%, respectively, while also encouraging greater retirement savings. Furthermore, we find that overall labor productivity growth reduces elderly participation due to an income effect, whereas productivity growth among the elderly, driven by lower skill depreciation, motivates longer labor force participation.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":45430,"journal":{"name":"Asian Economic Policy Review","volume":"20 2","pages":"251-260"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647246","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Economic Security and New Industrial Policy","authors":"Shiro Armstrong, Mireya Solís, Shujiro Urata","doi":"10.1111/aepr.12502","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/aepr.12502","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The paper analyzes the emergence of Japan's economic security strategy to address the risks of weaponized interdependence in a context of heightened geopolitical tension. We detail the rapid institutionalization of economic security measures through the adoption of an Economic Security Promotion Act and ongoing reforms in areas such as foreign direct investment screening and export controls. We find, however, that Japan has made little headway in reducing its dependence on China for critical products, and export controls have had ambiguous trade effects. We discuss the role of the private sector in economic security and find significant divides by firm size on the uptake of new measures to address supply chain vulnerabilities and the protection of sensitive technologies. We examine the new industrial policy on semiconductors and point to the exigencies of success in fostering cutting-edge technologies. Our conclusion identifies policy challenges going forward and offers possible solutions.</p>","PeriodicalId":45430,"journal":{"name":"Asian Economic Policy Review","volume":"20 2","pages":"265-275"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/aepr.12502","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647417","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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