日本的财政预测和债务可持续性

IF 7 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Asian Economic Policy Review Pub Date : 2025-02-25 DOI:10.1111/aepr.12508

Mitsuru Katagiri, Junko Koeda, Hiroaki Miyamoto, Makoto Nirei, Takashi Unayama

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引用次数: 0

摘要

日本政府债务目前约为GDP的250%，是发达经济体中最高的，这引发了人们对财政可持续性的严重担忧。本文采用债务可持续性分析来评估日本在通货膨胀上升和货币政策正常化可能导致利率上升的背景下的长期财政可持续性。我们的基准情景预测，持续的初级赤字将导致债务与gdp之比轨迹的分化，这凸显了一些财政调整的必要性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Fiscal Projections and Debt Sustainability in Japan

Japan's government debt, currently at approximately 250% of GDP, is the highest among the advanced economies and raises significant concerns about fiscal sustainability. This paper employs debt sustainability analysis to assess Japan's long-term fiscal sustainability given a backdrop of rising inflation and potential increases in interest rates because of the normalization of monetary policy. Our baseline scenario projects a persistent primary deficit leading to a divergent debt-to-GDP trajectory, underscoring the need for some fiscal adjustments.

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来源期刊

Asian Economic Policy Review ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

12.90

自引率

2.60%

发文量

期刊介绍： The goal of the Asian Economic Policy Review is to become an intellectual voice on the current issues of international economics and economic policy, based on comprehensive and in-depth analyses, with a primary focus on Asia. Emphasis is placed on identifying key issues at the time - spanning international trade, international finance, the environment, energy, the integration of regional economies and other issues - in order to furnish ideas and proposals to contribute positively to the policy debate in the region.