China Economic Journal最新文献

{"title":"Will China’s population aging be a threat to its future consumption?","authors":"Min Wang, Xiumei Yu","doi":"10.1080/17538963.2019.1681198","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2019.1681198","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Based on the household level survey data, the paper makes a projection on China’s household consumption in 2049 with reasonable assumptions of disposable income, demographic structure, urbanization rate and total population in 2049. The results show that at annual income growth rates of 3%, 4% and 5%, China’s total household consumption in 2049 will be 71.0, 97.8 and 133.8 trillion CNY, respectively, 3.1~5.8 times of the total household consumption in 2015. Moreover, our projection shows that even excluding the income growth effect, the future consumption increased by rapid urbanization is much larger than the consumption depressed by the demographic change. The result highlights that as long as the Chinese government can successfully eliminate institutional constraints imposed on rural-urban migration, such as Hukou system or residency permits in the urban areas, population aging would not be a major threat to its future development.","PeriodicalId":45279,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Journal","volume":"13 1","pages":"42 - 61"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2020-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17538963.2019.1681198","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43292609","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Business fixed investment of Chinese manufacturing firms in the post-financial crisis era","authors":"P. Yan","doi":"10.1080/17538963.2019.1700630","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2019.1700630","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT I document the investment decline of Chinese manufacturing firms after 2011, following the end of the 4 trillion fiscal stimulus program and expansionary monetary policies for combating the 2008–2009 financial crisis. I employ a difference-in-difference strategy to show that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) acted as investment stabilizers. In the post-crisis era, SOEs’ investment rates fell less compared to their private counterparts. Moreover, they had a smaller chance of exiting the market than private firms. In the face of monetary tightening, SOEs enjoyed a much smaller increase in the interest rates of their long-term debts. Although these may fuel the growth of the SOE sector relative to the private sector, and thus raised concerns for capital misallocation, the adverse effect on reallocation was dampened by shadow banking.","PeriodicalId":45279,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Journal","volume":"13 1","pages":"109 - 121"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2020-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17538963.2019.1700630","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42921445","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The effect of artificial intelligence on China’s labor market","authors":"Guangsu Zhou, Gaosi Chu, Lixing Li, Lingsheng Meng","doi":"10.1080/17538963.2019.1681201","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2019.1681201","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Automation and artificial intelligence technology have played a pivotal role in today’s economic and social development. They represent a labor-substituted technological progress, featuring more and more jobs to be replaced by AI. Based on the adoption rate calculated in our paper and theoretical substitution probability estimated by existing studies, our research estimates the actual substitution probability by AI for various occupations in China. By using this actual substitution probability on occupation level, we also explore the substitution effects on labor force with different characteristics and find that AI has larger substitution impacts on labors of female, old age, low education and low income. We also predict the number of employed people that would be replaced by AI in each industry, and the results show that China will have 278 million labors (201 ~ 333 million under different adoption rates) replaced by AI by 2049, representing 35.8% of the current employment in China. Abbreviation: Artificial intelligence (AI), internet of things (IoT), Council of Economic Advisers (CEA)","PeriodicalId":45279,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Journal","volume":"13 1","pages":"24 - 41"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2020-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17538963.2019.1681201","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44508712","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Openness, growth convergence and China’s development prospects","authors":"Xun Wang","doi":"10.1080/17538963.2019.1591574","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2019.1591574","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper examines China’s long-term growth prospects and the potential drivers of future growth, based on cross-country productivity convergence and China’s featured demographic evolution. In a nonlinear open economy catch-up growth model, per capital GDP growth of the followers depend on that of the leading economy and time varying convergence of the relative per capita GDP. Comparable open economies of China are identified in terms of relative per capita GDP and the historical data of which are used to project China’s trajectory of productivity convergence and then the growth of per capita GDP. Projection shows China’s future GDP growth will gradually descend from 6.6–6.7% (2016–2020) to 2.6–2.7% (2046–2050) in low variant. Predictions under medium and high variants are provided as well. The importance of further opening-up domestic markets, elimination of birth control policies and accumulation of human capital in the process of promoting urbanization are highlighted and have significant implications for the economic restructuring and transformation of China. Abbreviations: ICRG: International Country Risk Guide; IMF: International Monetary Fund","PeriodicalId":45279,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Journal","volume":"13 1","pages":"82 - 108"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2020-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17538963.2019.1591574","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47280213","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Special issue: challenges of population ageing in China","authors":"Yiping Huang","doi":"10.1080/17538963.2019.1710058","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2019.1710058","url":null,"abstract":"In 2012, the Chinese government announced Two Centennial Goals. The first is to double the 2010 GDP and per capita income for both urban and rural residents by 2021, the year when the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) celebrates its centenary. And, the second is to build China into a fully developed country that is prosperous, powerful, democratic, culturally advanced and harmonious by 2049, the year when the People’s Republic of China (PRC) celebrates its centenary. It looks that China is well on track achieving the first Centennial Goal, as its GDP grew by 7.4% per annum between 2010 and 2018. There are greater uncertainties, however, surrounding the path to the second Centennial Goal. One of the greatest challenges facing the Chinese economy over the coming decades is population ageing. During the past 40 years, the Chinese economy enjoyed the so-called ‘demographic dividend’, as the dependency ratio declined from close to four-fifths in 1980 to one-third in 2010. But now the population is already ageing rapidly, as working-age population declines by 8 million but old population increases by 12 million a year currently. Population ageing would generate a series of important policy implications, including declining labor supply, weakening consumption demand, falling household saving and growing social security spending. Will China be able to effectively address these challenges of population ageing and continue robust economic development in the coming three decades? This is the common theme of this special issue. The challenges posed by ageing are quite serious in China (Lei 2020). One, not only the dependency ratio is rising very rapidly, but the proportion of the oldest old population is also growing quickly. Two, even with easing of the policy controls over birth, there is no strong evidence that the fertility rate would rise as a result. And, three, compared with other countries that also experiencing population ageing, China suffers from the additional problem of ‘getting old before becoming rich.’ The findings by studies included in this Special Issue are mixed. The falling labor supply, for instance, could be mitigated by the effective application and implementation of artificial intelligence (AI) (Zhou et al., 2020). Over the next three decades, China’s working-age population may decline by 170–260 million. But AI may substitute 200–330 million workers, if China is able to effectively take advantage of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Of course, the substitutability of different professions differs significantly. The substitution elasticities are particularly low for those professions requiring individual attention.","PeriodicalId":45279,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Journal","volume":"13 1","pages":"1 - 2"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2020-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17538963.2019.1710058","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42578208","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How to reform China’s fiscal system?","authors":"Shuanglin Lin","doi":"10.1080/17538963.2019.1691356","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2019.1691356","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT As the population aging, China’s government expenditures, including general fiscal expenditure, healthcare and social security expenditure, will grow more rapidly than government revenues, tending to elevate government debt. Local governments undertake overwhelming 85% of total general fiscal revenue and are responsible for healthcare and social security, and their debt has been growing. Fiscal reforms are imperative, including tax reforms, the structure of government spending reforms, social security reforms, healthcare reforms, local public finance reforms, and central and local government’s fiscal relationship reforms. This paper will explore the fiscal challenges China faces and discuss how to reform the fiscal system to cope with these challenges.","PeriodicalId":45279,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Journal","volume":"13 1","pages":"62 - 81"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2020-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17538963.2019.1691356","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48206577","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Inflation in China, 1953-1978","authors":"P. Franses","doi":"10.1080/17538963.2019.1679329","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2019.1679329","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper reconstructs annual inflation figures for China, for the period 1953–1978, where inflation concerns the Consumer Price Index (CPI). One alternative index and two new models are considered. The models associate CPI based inflation with the GDP inflator and with retail prices, for the years after 1978. A combination of the three ‘forecasts’ is taken as the reconstructed series. This new inflation series has proper face value and can be used for macroeconomic data analysis in China.","PeriodicalId":45279,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Journal","volume":"13 1","pages":"290 - 298"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2019-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17538963.2019.1679329","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46071763","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Financial sector opening and financial constraints: an empirical study based on China’s experiences","authors":"Liqing Zhang, Yan Zhang, Zhixiao Dong","doi":"10.1080/17538963.2019.1656916","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2019.1656916","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The paper investigates the effect of financial sector opening on financial constraints based on the experiences in China. We firstly review the policy of China’s financial sector opening and set up exogenous policy measures. Then based on the panel data of listed firms from 2010 to 2015, we calculate four indices to measure China’s firm-level financial constraints through internal and external finance channels. We find that China’s financial sector opening alleviates financial constraints and upgrades the financing structure for China’s listed firms. Financial sector opening also eliminates ownership discrimination and promotes financing efficiency, to alleviate financial constraints of private enterprises and profitable enterprises. The mechanism of the effects of financial sector opening on financial constrain is mainly through the collateral channels and the elimination of information asymmetry.","PeriodicalId":45279,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Journal","volume":"12 1","pages":"272 - 296"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2019-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17538963.2019.1656916","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41667987","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"China’s capital account liberalization: a ruby jubilee and beyond","authors":"Yanliang Miao, Tuo Deng","doi":"10.1080/17538963.2019.1670472","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2019.1670472","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Since Reform and Opening-up in late 1978, China has gradually opened many parts of its capital account, but the progress has been slower and bumpier than its current account liberalization. We review China’s four decades of capital account opening-up through the lens of three recurring debates. First, how open is China’s capital account and how much more needs to be done? Second, how committed is China to opening its capital account? Third, is China ready, and how to liberalize its capital account further? From China’s experience we draw good, bad, and ‘ugly’ lessons that answer to these three debates, and shed light on China’s capital account policy going forward. We conclude that policymakers are committed to opening up China’s capital account further. With the capital flow management framework upgraded, the challenge lies in coordinating capital account liberalization with financial and exchange rate reforms. The troika of a near-fully open capital account, a flexible exchange rate, and monetary independence best serves China’s long-term interests.","PeriodicalId":45279,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Journal","volume":"12 1","pages":"245 - 271"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2019-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17538963.2019.1670472","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42278098","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The potential impact of China - India free trade agreement on Chinese and Indian industries","authors":"V. Archana","doi":"10.1080/17538963.2019.1646953","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2019.1646953","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The world’s two largest developing economies, China and India are considering positive negotiations on the Free Trade Agreement, which would pave the way for more trade and a new breakthrough in ties. In this context, the present paper using trade indicators explore, that India and China are in between the ideal trading partners and perfect competitors and the trade relationship between the two economies is more intense than the world average for the partner. A partial equilibrium approach based on highly disaggregated trade data shows that in a scenario where China and India completely open up its markets, there could be huge potential to create an impact on trade and welfare in their specific areas where they enjoy a comparative advantage.","PeriodicalId":45279,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Journal","volume":"12 1","pages":"297 - 315"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2019-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17538963.2019.1646953","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48205544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}