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The potential impacts and risks of global stablecoins 全球稳定币的潜在影响和风险
IF 3.3
China Economic Journal Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2021.1872167
Cangshu Li, Yan Shen
{"title":"The potential impacts and risks of global stablecoins","authors":"Cangshu Li, Yan Shen","doi":"10.1080/17538963.2021.1872167","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2021.1872167","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper aims to study the implications of the potential large-scale usage of global stablecoins. We start with describing the origin and the evolution of stablecoins, and then analyze the operational mechanism and application scenarios. An analysis on whether global stablecoins will lead to dollarization of a country’s monetary system is then followed, based on the monetary quantity theory and Fisher’s equation. We find that large-scale usage of global stablecoins may have an impact on both large and small open economies, and with a greater impact on the sovereign monetary system of small economies. Further, global stablecoins may affect financial stability through influencing monetary policy, holder confidence and financial system. The potential risks are embodied in technology development, payment security and illegal transactions. To deal with these potential impacts and risks, we propose to strengthen judicial research and plan arrangements for global cooperation and coordination.","PeriodicalId":45279,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2021-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17538963.2021.1872167","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43173299","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
The genesis, design and implications of China’s central bank digital currency 中国央行数字货币的产生、设计及其启示
IF 3.3
China Economic Journal Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2020.1870273
Shiyun Li, Yiping Huang
{"title":"The genesis, design and implications of China’s central bank digital currency","authors":"Shiyun Li, Yiping Huang","doi":"10.1080/17538963.2020.1870273","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2020.1870273","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The People’s Bank of China (PBC) was among the first in the world to start exploration of central bank digital currency (CBDC) and will probably be one of the first major central banks releasing its own CBDC. This article intends to explain the construction of the e-CNY and discuss its likely implications. While PBC tried hard to avoid causing disintermediation of commercial banks, it remains to be seen if there will be a shift from commercial banks savings accounts to the new e-CNY wallets. E-CNY’s impacts on existing mobile payment system and the associated collection and analyses of big data in the Fintech sector could be major. In summary, even the modest step of creating e-CNY could significantly transform the financial landscape in China. But this is only the step by PBC in creating its own CBDC.","PeriodicalId":45279,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2021-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17538963.2020.1870273","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41773495","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 23
Demographic changes and economic growth: impact and mechanisms 人口变化与经济增长：影响和机制
IF 3.3
China Economic Journal Pub Date : 2020-12-27 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2020.1865647
Q. Hu, Xiaoyan Lei, Bo Zhao
{"title":"Demographic changes and economic growth: impact and mechanisms","authors":"Q. Hu, Xiaoyan Lei, Bo Zhao","doi":"10.1080/17538963.2020.1865647","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2020.1865647","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Using panel data on 172 countries from 1960 to 2019, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of population aging on economic growth and explores the underlying mechanisms. We find that the aging of the population significantly reduces the economic growth rate: when the population over age 65 increases by 1 percentage point, the per capita economic growth rate decreases by 2.6 percentage points. We examine four channels through which population aging may affect economic growth and find that three channels play significant roles: capital accumulation, labor supply, and economic structure, while technological progress and human capital accumulation do not seem to be significant. We also find significant heterogeneity in the impact across countries at different income levels: the effects are statistically significant for middle-income and high-income countries, but not for low-income countries.","PeriodicalId":45279,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2020-12-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17538963.2020.1865647","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48907515","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 10
A global perspective on central bank digital currency 央行数字货币的全球视角
IF 3.3
China Economic Journal Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2020.1870279
D. K. Lee, Li Yan, Yu Wang
{"title":"A global perspective on central bank digital currency","authors":"D. K. Lee, Li Yan, Yu Wang","doi":"10.1080/17538963.2020.1870279","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2020.1870279","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper discusses the key considerations of CBDC design to balance benefits and risks and presents best practices in CBDC design from a global perspective. Using China’s CBDC as an illustration, this paper discusses two-tier or multi-tier ledger design and proposes ten enablers of mass adoption and successful implementation. This proposed design allows central banks to manage the process flow, focus on the monitoring and control, without bearing all the load or exposing to over-centralized risks. It concludes that CBDC will be the primary tool in the future digital economy, and countries that are conversant with the technology will have a competitive advantage. Learning from the implementation, continuously reviewing the existing regulation, and improvising whenever international dynamics change the landscape are vital attributes of a successful implementation.","PeriodicalId":45279,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17538963.2020.1870279","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47672079","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 48
Trade related sectorial infrastructure and exports of belt and road countries: does belt and road initiatives make this relation structurally instable? 与贸易相关的行业基础设施和“一带一路”国家的出口:“一带一路”倡议是否使这种关系在结构上不稳定?
IF 3.3
China Economic Journal Pub Date : 2020-11-02 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2020.1840014
F. Rehman, A. Noman
{"title":"Trade related sectorial infrastructure and exports of belt and road countries: does belt and road initiatives make this relation structurally instable?","authors":"F. Rehman, A. Noman","doi":"10.1080/17538963.2020.1840014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2020.1840014","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This study investigates the impact of infrastructure on export in Belt & Road countries during 1990–2017 by applying System GMM approach. The results confirmed the significant and positive impact of aggregate and sub-indices (i.e., transport, telecommunication, energy and financial sector) of infrastructure on export in total sample as well is in grouped samples (like Asia, Europe and Middle East, and Africa). Most importantly, this study also examines the pre and post strategy of Belt and Road initiative (BRI) in total sample of belt and road countries. The empirical outcomes reveal that the coefficient of aggregate and all other sub-indices of infrastructure improved due to BRI which in turn encourage export in the selected economies. Furthermore, the control variables of exchange rate, per capita GDP, domestic investment, and institutional quality have also significant effect on export, which strengthen the role of infrastructure in promoting export in belt & road economies.","PeriodicalId":45279,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2020-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17538963.2020.1840014","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42657666","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 19
The impacts of the US dollar index and the investors’ expectations on the AH Premium – a macro perspective 美元指数和投资者预期对澳元溢价的影响——宏观视角
IF 3.3
China Economic Journal Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2020.1804709
Zhang Xuechun, Jiang Yandong, Lv Tingting
{"title":"The impacts of the US dollar index and the investors’ expectations on the AH Premium – a macro perspective","authors":"Zhang Xuechun, Jiang Yandong, Lv Tingting","doi":"10.1080/17538963.2020.1804709","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2020.1804709","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper aims to provide a macro perspective to explanations of the AH premium, that is, the A and H share price differences of cross-listed companies, particularly the surge of the AH Premium Index after 2015: after the initiation of Shanghai–Hong Kong Stock Connect (SH Connect) in November 2014, the AH Premium Index jumped from 115.8 to 126.4, with a significant decline in its variance. We find that the impacts of US Dollar Index shocks dominated the overall changes in the AH premium on an individual equity basis over 2007–2019. Moreover, the US Dollar Index explains 50%-70% of the changes in the AH Premium Index, and investors’ expectations of the Chinese economy add another 10% to the explanatory power. Segregating the impact of the US Dollar Index, the average AH Premium Index only increased 2.7 percentage points, from 98.8 to 101.5. Further, after the initiation of SH Connect, the prices of cross-listed shares have been more responsive to exchange rate information. Over a longer term, SH Connect may have reduced the impacts of the US Dollar Index and increased the impacts of effective prices on equity prices. These findings demonstrate that hedging foreign exchange risks is the main reason for investment in H shares of mainland firms and, as a result, enhancing RMB foreign exchange rate flexibility is the core component as well as precondition for financial market opening in China. When market conditions permit, policy makers and regulators should consider a pilot program allowing investors to arbitrage the H shares of mainland firms with the AH premium in a reasonable range. This may further reduce the AH premium and enable the share prices to converge in the long run.","PeriodicalId":45279,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2020-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17538963.2020.1804709","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46405094","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Trade and life expectancy in China: a cointegration analysis 中国贸易与预期寿命的协整分析
IF 3.3
China Economic Journal Pub Date : 2020-07-01 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2020.1783745
M. Tahir
{"title":"Trade and life expectancy in China: a cointegration analysis","authors":"M. Tahir","doi":"10.1080/17538963.2020.1783745","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2020.1783745","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The purpose behind this paper is to empirically examine the relationship between trade openness and life expectancy for the Chinese economy. Data are collected for the period 1970–2015. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Modeling technique is utilized to find out the presence of long- and short-run relationship between trade openness and life expectancy. The findings indicated a stable long-run positive relationship between trade openness and life expectancy. Government expenditures, number of physicians and human capital growth have also positively and significantly impacted life expectancy. Similarly, growth of employment and number of beds in hospitals have influenced life expectancy negatively. Moreover, in the short run, government expenditures, growth of employment, number of physicians and human capital growth have maintained their relationship with life expectancy both in terms of coefficient signs and significance level while the relationship between trade openness, number of hospital beds and life expectancy is reversed.","PeriodicalId":45279,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17538963.2020.1783745","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48782343","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 10
Does trade policy related uncertainty affect international trade? Evidence from the US-China commodity trade 与贸易政策相关的不确定性是否影响国际贸易？来自美中商品贸易的证据
IF 3.3
China Economic Journal Pub Date : 2020-06-30 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2020.1786618
S. Ongan, Ismet Gocer
{"title":"Does trade policy related uncertainty affect international trade? Evidence from the US-China commodity trade","authors":"S. Ongan, Ismet Gocer","doi":"10.1080/17538963.2020.1786618","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2020.1786618","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This study examines the impacts of US and China trade policy uncertainties on the US’s commodity level bilateral trade balances (henceforth, BTBs) with China. To this end, newly created trade policy uncertainty (henceforth, TPU) indexes for both countries are used and the nonlinear ARDL model is applied. Empirical findings indicate that the impacts of US and China TPU indexes on US’s aggregated and disaggregated data BTBs are mostly different. The aggregated data model finds that increases in the US TPU index worsen US’s BTB. However, disaggregated models find ‘improvements’ in 4 and ‘no impacts’ in 3 commodities out of 10. Similarly, while the aggregated data model finds that increases in China’s TPU index improves US’s BTB, disaggregated models find ‘worsen’ in 4 and ‘no impacts’ in 5 commodities our of 10. Furthermore, increases in the US’s TPU index worsen US BTB the most in commodity beverages and tobacco.","PeriodicalId":45279,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2020-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17538963.2020.1786618","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48229295","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Who will win from the trade war? Analysis of the US–China trade war from a micro perspective 谁将在贸易战中获胜？中美贸易战的微观分析
IF 3.3
China Economic Journal Pub Date : 2020-06-30 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2020.1785073
V. Archana
{"title":"Who will win from the trade war? Analysis of the US–China trade war from a micro perspective","authors":"V. Archana","doi":"10.1080/17538963.2020.1785073","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2020.1785073","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Over the past two years, China and the US are going on a trade war imposing tariffs on one another’s goods and this is hurting each other’s businesses. The focus of the present paper is to analyse the costs and benefits of tariff policy changes by the two economies. A partial equilibrium model approach based on highly disaggregated data shows that when China and the US are moving rapidly towards tariff imposition, it is largely deleterious from both the economy’s perspective in terms of trade and welfare. If we compare both the economies, the losses would be considerably higher for the US than China. However, trade liberalization is clearly associated with improved trade flows in the US and additional welfare gains in China. China would gain particularly in consumer goods, industrial goods and agricultural goods whereas the US would be better off opening its consumer goods and industrial goods.","PeriodicalId":45279,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2020-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17538963.2020.1785073","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49503857","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 10
CEJ special issue: policy and regulatory reforms for green economic transition in China CEJ特刊：中国绿色经济转型的政策和监管改革
IF 3.3
China Economic Journal Pub Date : 2020-05-03 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2020.1766201
Jintao Xu
{"title":"CEJ special issue: policy and regulatory reforms for green economic transition in China","authors":"Jintao Xu","doi":"10.1080/17538963.2020.1766201","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2020.1766201","url":null,"abstract":"The two decades between 2010 and 2030 are critical turning period for China’s economic transition. At the beginning of this period, talk about how the existing economic growth model was no longer s...","PeriodicalId":45279,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2020-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17538963.2020.1766201","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43595160","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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