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Econometric Forecasting of Tourist Arrivals Using Bayesian Structural Time-Series* 基于贝叶斯结构时间序列的游客到达量经济预测*
IF 0.9
Economic Papers Pub Date : 2023-04-04 DOI: 10.1111/1759-3441.12383
Antony Andrews, Sean Kimpton
{"title":"Econometric Forecasting of Tourist Arrivals Using Bayesian Structural Time-Series*","authors":"Antony Andrews,&nbsp;Sean Kimpton","doi":"10.1111/1759-3441.12383","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1759-3441.12383","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article introduces the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) as a potential tool for forecasting in the tourism literature. Using data on Australian tourist arrivals in New Zealand, the forecasting accuracy of the estimated model is evaluated using a fixed partitioning approach. The MAPE of the fitted model is 3.11 per cent for the validation stage and 2.75 per cent for the test stage. The BSTS outperforms two other competing models both in the validation and test stage. In addition to forecasting, BSTS also estimates the trend, trend slope, and seasonality that change over time.</p>","PeriodicalId":45208,"journal":{"name":"Economic Papers","volume":"42 2","pages":"200-211"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50126379","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Fiscal Policy in the COVID-19 Era1 新冠肺炎时期的财政政策1
IF 0.9
Economic Papers Pub Date : 2023-03-28 DOI: 10.1111/1759-3441.12382
Chris Murphy
{"title":"Fiscal Policy in the COVID-19 Era1","authors":"Chris Murphy","doi":"10.1111/1759-3441.12382","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1759-3441.12382","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper analyses the COVID recession and the large fiscal policy response by modelling scenarios using a macro-econometric model. The COVID recession mainly arose from lower household consumption of certain services under COVID social distancing. The fiscal response to compensate for income losses in those service industries meant that unemployment was around 2 percentage points lower for 3 years than otherwise would have been the case. However, there was over-compensation: for every $1 of income the private sector lost under COVID, fiscal policy provided $2 of compensation. Following the end of social distancing, the aftereffects of over-compensation and over-prolonged loose monetary policy are modelled to have generated excess demand that temporarily added up to 3 percentage points to the annual inflation rate. Also, three forms of over-compensation in the JobKeeper program that led the fiscal response created disincentive effects and inequities. The primary lesson for future pandemics is that fiscal policy should compensate, but not over-compensate, for income losses, both in aggregate and at the program level. The secondary lesson is that monetary policy needs to take more account of the stimulus already provided by the fiscal response, so that interest rates do not remain very low for too long.</p>","PeriodicalId":45208,"journal":{"name":"Economic Papers","volume":"42 2","pages":"107-152"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1759-3441.12382","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50155316","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Inflation and Spatial Spillovers in a Large Archipelago: Evidence from Indonesia* 大型群岛的通货膨胀与空间溢出效应：印度尼西亚的证据*
IF 0.9
Economic Papers Pub Date : 2023-03-25 DOI: 10.1111/1759-3441.12381
Harry Aginta
{"title":"Inflation and Spatial Spillovers in a Large Archipelago: Evidence from Indonesia*","authors":"Harry Aginta","doi":"10.1111/1759-3441.12381","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1759-3441.12381","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study examines inflation dynamics in Indonesia, a large archipelagic country, using the Phillips curve specification. Utilising province-level data from 2015 to 2019, the analysis accounts for regional interaction across Indonesian provinces and estimates spatial spillovers. To address the challenges of applying spatial methods to the world's largest archipelagic nation, two new approaches for the spatial weight matrix criteria are introduced: contiguity-based from artificial boundaries (Thiessen polygons) and trade-based from the Interregional Input–Output Tables. Furthermore, exploiting a new dataset, the study contrasts alternative measurements of inflation and output gap. These distinctions yield new findings. The results indicate the presence of a conventional Phillips curve in Indonesia. Different measures of inflation and the output gap have distinct spatial spillover effects.</p>","PeriodicalId":45208,"journal":{"name":"Economic Papers","volume":"43 1","pages":"91-103"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124317313","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Pandemic Crisis, Contact Intensity and Gender Disparity in a Developing Economy* 发展中经济中的流行病危机、接触强度和性别差异*
IF 0.9
Economic Papers Pub Date : 2023-03-06 DOI: 10.1111/1759-3441.12379
Rohan Kanti Khan, Sushobhan Mahata, Ranjanendra Narayan Nag
{"title":"Pandemic Crisis, Contact Intensity and Gender Disparity in a Developing Economy*","authors":"Rohan Kanti Khan,&nbsp;Sushobhan Mahata,&nbsp;Ranjanendra Narayan Nag","doi":"10.1111/1759-3441.12379","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1759-3441.12379","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The paper attempts to analyse the grotesque dimensions of gender disparity of lockdown as a policy response to the pandemic crisis. In doing so, we develop a multi-sectoral distortion-ridden general equilibrium model which applies to small open developing economies. Lockdown results in supply-chain disruptions (SCDs), physical restrictions on labour gathering, adverse demand shock and an escalation of demand for the high-skilled capital-intensive product. Not only factor intensity ranking but also contact intensity of sectors has several dimensions. These dimensions include inter alia female labour force participation, the burden of unpaid domestic chores on women and gender wage disparity with unemployment as well.</p>","PeriodicalId":45208,"journal":{"name":"Economic Papers","volume":"42 1","pages":"30-53"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50123067","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
What Shapes Economic Growth in BRICS? Exploring the Role of Institutional Quality and Trade Openness 是什么影响了金砖国家的经济增长？探讨制度质量和贸易开放度的作用
IF 0.9
Economic Papers Pub Date : 2023-01-19 DOI: 10.1111/1759-3441.12378
Megha Chhabra, Arun Kumar Giri, Arya Kumar
{"title":"What Shapes Economic Growth in BRICS? Exploring the Role of Institutional Quality and Trade Openness","authors":"Megha Chhabra,&nbsp;Arun Kumar Giri,&nbsp;Arya Kumar","doi":"10.1111/1759-3441.12378","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1759-3441.12378","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Prior research has identified outward-oriented policies as a far superior approach to achieving economic growth. Whilst trade openness determines economic growth in the short run, institutional quality is critical to long-term viability. However, the direct and indirect effects of institutions have been understudied, particularly for the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. This study addresses this issue by estimating long-run and short-run elasticities using the system GMM and pooled mean group models and identifying its country-specific impact using the fully modified ordinary least square model. According to the findings, trade and institutions are only short-run complements of economic growth. In the long run, however, the lack of good governance limits the positive impact of trade openness.</p>","PeriodicalId":45208,"journal":{"name":"Economic Papers","volume":"42 4","pages":"347-365"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124761002","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Effect of COVID-19 Lockdown on the Profitability of Firms in India* 新冠肺炎封锁对印度企业盈利能力的影响*
IF 0.9
Economic Papers Pub Date : 2023-01-16 DOI: 10.1111/1759-3441.12377
Ritika Jain, Rajnish Kumar
{"title":"Effect of COVID-19 Lockdown on the Profitability of Firms in India*","authors":"Ritika Jain,&nbsp;Rajnish Kumar","doi":"10.1111/1759-3441.12377","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1759-3441.12377","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We examine the effect of COVID-19-induced lockdown on the profitability of listed firms in India. We use quarterly income statement of 4168 listed firms for the period between April–June 2020 quarter and April–June 2022 quarter and compare their financial data with previous quarters (2015–2019). Using a difference-in-difference estimation framework and various profitability measures, we find that the COVID-19 lockdown has reduced profits by around 15 per cent for listed firms in India. Our results are robust to various robustness tests and alternate specifications. We find evidence of firms losing revenues more than expenses, thus leading to decline in profits. The main effect is conditioned by firm-specific factors. Specifically, firms that are smaller, older, unlisted and that do not belong to any group witnessed larger decline in profitability due to lockdown. Additionally, the effect of lockdown is more pronounced in areas that had lower mobility and higher COVID-19 spread. These results underscore the importance of institutional factors and pre-existing firm characteristics in conditioning the impact of lockdown on firm profitability.</p>","PeriodicalId":45208,"journal":{"name":"Economic Papers","volume":"42 1","pages":"54-71"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50134560","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Driving on Sunbeams: Interactions Between Price Incentives for Electric Vehicles, Residential Solar Photovoltaics and Household Battery Systems* 在阳光下行驶:电动汽车、住宅太阳能光伏和家用电池系统价格激励之间的相互作用*
IF 0.9
Economic Papers Pub Date : 2022-12-15 DOI: 10.1111/1759-3441.12376
Leslie A. Martin
{"title":"Driving on Sunbeams: Interactions Between Price Incentives for Electric Vehicles, Residential Solar Photovoltaics and Household Battery Systems*","authors":"Leslie A. Martin","doi":"10.1111/1759-3441.12376","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1759-3441.12376","url":null,"abstract":"<p>I discuss how electric vehicles (EVs) link transportation externalities to the regulations that govern our electricity markets. Specifically, I contrast the consequences of the incentives faced by joint EV and residential PV adopters under a system of monthly net metering to those under a system of instantaneous metering with feed-in tariffs and behind-the-meter own consumption. I also discuss how, even within Australia, households under new solar PV contracts and early adopters under legacy contracts face very different private costs of operating EVs, which have environmental and congestion implications. I briefly discuss how these incentives interact with the profitability and environmental benefit of household battery systems. Finally, I comment on how these short-term incentives are likely to evolve in the longer run transition to a much cleaner grid and warn about the potential negative distributional impacts of using purchase subsidies to accelerate the adoption of these technologies.</p>","PeriodicalId":45208,"journal":{"name":"Economic Papers","volume":"41 4","pages":"369-384"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1759-3441.12376","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116344154","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Organising Thinking about Disinflation Policy* 反通货膨胀政策的组织思考*
IF 0.9
Economic Papers Pub Date : 2022-12-14 DOI: 10.1111/1759-3441.12375
Eduardo Pol
{"title":"Organising Thinking about Disinflation Policy*","authors":"Eduardo Pol","doi":"10.1111/1759-3441.12375","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1759-3441.12375","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper offers a plain model to organise thinking about the disinflation policy. It exploits the insight that monetary and fiscal policy are intertwined. The model links inflationary expectations, monetary policy and fiscal policy, and contemplates a disinflation policy consisting of two plans, not necessarily connected: a monetary plan and a fiscal plan. The central question examined is which type of policy generates a lower policy interest rate – a monetary plan without fiscal cooperation or a monetary plan with fiscal austerity? The economic logic articulated by the model generates the following answer: the equilibrium policy rate set by the central bank can always be brought down by reducing the budget deficit. This qualitatively unambiguous prediction may be dependent on silent omissions, which are briefly discussed at the end of the paper.</p>","PeriodicalId":45208,"journal":{"name":"Economic Papers","volume":"42 1","pages":"92-106"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1759-3441.12375","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50132713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Be Wary of Paying Wounded Bulls – Capacity Markets in Australia's National Electricity Market* 警惕为受伤的公牛买单——澳大利亚国家电力市场的容量市场*
IF 0.9
Economic Papers Pub Date : 2022-12-10 DOI: 10.1111/1759-3441.12374
Tim Nelson, Joel Gilmore, Tahlia Nolan
{"title":"Be Wary of Paying Wounded Bulls – Capacity Markets in Australia's National Electricity Market*","authors":"Tim Nelson,&nbsp;Joel Gilmore,&nbsp;Tahlia Nolan","doi":"10.1111/1759-3441.12374","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1759-3441.12374","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Australia's Energy Security Board is currently considering whether to pivot the east-coast Australian National Electricity Market from an energy-only market to include some form of capacity remuneration. This discussion is occurring during an unprecedented energy crisis where the wholesale market was suspended following a 275% increase in underlying wholesale energy prices. This article unpacks the root causes of the current energy crisis and how a traditional capacity market would have been ineffective in addressing it. We find that a traditional capacity market may provide windfall gains to wounded bull coal generators and be counterproductive in driving new investment in dispatchable technologies. Our recommendation is that policy-makers should focus on utilising existing regulatory tools and a capacity reserve to insure against the unanticipated failures of ageing coal plants.</p>","PeriodicalId":45208,"journal":{"name":"Economic Papers","volume":"42 1","pages":"72-91"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50127542","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Increasing Australian Lithium Production to Meet Electric Vehicles and Net Zero Global Targets: A Decarbonisation Tax Discount?* 增加澳大利亚锂产量以满足电动汽车和净零全球目标:脱碳税收优惠?＊
IF 0.9
Economic Papers Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1111/1759-3441.12372
Russell Smyth, Joaquin Vespignani
{"title":"Increasing Australian Lithium Production to Meet Electric Vehicles and Net Zero Global Targets: A Decarbonisation Tax Discount?*","authors":"Russell Smyth,&nbsp;Joaquin Vespignani","doi":"10.1111/1759-3441.12372","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1759-3441.12372","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Current commitments with net zero 2050 require that more than two billion electric vehicles (EVs) be produced globally by 2035. Australia produces more than 55% of the global lithium in the world. We argue that Australia's most significant contribution to realising net zero 2050 could be to increase lithium production 10-20-fold by 2035. A similar case could equally be made for increasing other critical minerals. This would also contribute to securing Australia's energy and national security. To realise these benefits current investment in lithium is much lower than the production of lithium batteries used in EVs requires, reflecting suboptimal tax rates. We conclude by proposing that a decarbonisation tax discount for critical minerals is needed.</p>","PeriodicalId":45208,"journal":{"name":"Economic Papers","volume":"41 4","pages":"385-389"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127735715","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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