Economic Papers最新文献

{"title":"Effective Rates of Protection in an Industrialising, Settler Economy: Estimates for Victoria (Australia) in 1880*","authors":"Brian D. Varian","doi":"10.1111/1759-3441.12438","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1759-3441.12438","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study estimates effective rates of protection for 33 manufacturing industries in Victoria in 1880. These estimates lead to eight observations. Notably, the effective rates of protection suggest that the magnitude of protection in late-nineteenth-century Victoria was considerably less than in the other industrialising, settler economies of Canada and the United States—to a more pronounced degree than suggested by nominal tariff levels. Also, colonial Victoria exhibits a very high correlation between nominal tariffs and effective rates of protection. This finding should enhance the confidence of economic historians in using the former as a proxy for the latter.</p>","PeriodicalId":45208,"journal":{"name":"Economic Papers","volume":"44 2","pages":"136-146"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1759-3441.12438","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144598172","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Role of the Economist in Securing the Nation's Future","authors":"Ken Henry","doi":"10.1111/1759-3441.12440","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1759-3441.12440","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Conventional neoclassical trade theory predicts that China's emergence from autarky would lift the relative price of labour-intensive products in that country and lower their relative price in most trade-exposed countries in the developed world, inducing a shift in those countries towards less capital-intensive modes of production, lowering rates of growth in both labour productivity and real wages. These impacts appear to have had political resonance in the United States. In that country, sharp adjustments in the prices of traded goods and services have delivered a lower terms-of-trade, a persistent current account deficit and a trade deficit with China. In Australia, the same adjustments in international prices have delivered a much higher terms-of-trade, a narrowing in the current account deficit, even a trade surplus in some years, and a trade surplus with China. Impacts on a country's terms-of-trade, current account balance and bilateral trade balances are irrelevant to an understanding of the implications for productivity and real wages of China's embrace of globalisation. But political leaders in both the United States and Australia evidently do not get it. Captured by a mercantilist mindset, Australia's leaders celebrate higher export prices, choosing to believe a dangerous myth, that the “mining boom” has been critical to Australian prosperity in the 21st century, even though workers have done poorly. Consistent with neoclassical trade theory, the Australian mining boom provides a plausible explanation for a couple of decades of very weak productivity growth and a fall in real wages. Standard international macroeconomic analysis tells the same story. In response to China's industrial expansion, Australian policy makers should have embarked on an ambitious programme of productivity-enhancing economic reforms, as they did in implementing the tariff reforms of the late 20th century. Instead, this century's celebration of the mining boom myth has delivered a torpor of policy complacency that has sold Australian workers down the drain. Australia's economists have been far too tolerant of this complacency. We should have been using our insights to assist in the construction of narratives for the nation's future that are based on reason, not mythology.</p>","PeriodicalId":45208,"journal":{"name":"Economic Papers","volume":"44 2","pages":"104-118"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144598732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of Public Debt on the Relationship between Public Education Expenditure and Income Inequality: Evidence from Developing Countries*","authors":"Gift Mbewe,&nbsp;Yanzhi Zhao,&nbsp;Chuanzhong Tang","doi":"10.1111/1759-3441.12439","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1759-3441.12439","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study investigates the impact of public education expenditure on income inequality, focusing on the moderating role of public debt. Using a dataset of 74 developing countries spanning 1974–2022, the analysis applies the System Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) and the Dynamic Panel Threshold Regression Model (DPTRM). While previous research has predominantly examined the linear relationship between education expenditure and income inequality, this study further explores their nonlinear dynamics in the presence of public debt. The System GMM findings confirm that an increase in public education expenditure reduces income inequality, consistent with existing literature and the inverted U-shaped hypothesis. Furthermore, the study finds evidence of a nonlinear relationship between public education expenditure and income inequality; more specifically, a significant threshold effect of public debt is identified. Below the threshold level of the public debt-to-GDP ratio, increased education expenditure effectively reduces income inequality. Conversely, above the threshold, the impact of education expenditure on inequality becomes positive and loses statistical significance. The study offers a novel perspective for policymakers, emphasising that the effectiveness of education policy interventions, particularly education spending, is contingent on macroeconomic conditions such as debt sustainability.</p>","PeriodicalId":45208,"journal":{"name":"Economic Papers","volume":"44 2","pages":"147-163"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144598402","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Asia-Pacific Banks","authors":"Moses Kangogo,&nbsp;Judith Mutuku","doi":"10.1111/1759-3441.12437","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1759-3441.12437","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The outbreak of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic led to global economic consequences. This paper measures the dynamics of spillover effects before and during the COVID-19 pandemic among Asia-Pacific banks. Spillover effects provide an accurate representation of the transmission of shocks across financial institutions during adverse events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. We apply the Diebold-Yilmaz spillover index to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on spreading shocks in the banking system. We consider the interactions of the 50 largest banks in the Asia-Pacific region over the period 1 January 2018 to 18 November 2021. The empirical results show varying patterns of spillover before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. The total spillovers intensify following the COVID-19 outbreak. Total spillovers decreased after governments adopted measures to mitigate the spread of COVID-19, including lockdowns, social distancing, wearing face masks, and vaccinations. This shows that the COVID-19 pandemic led to an increase in systemic risk. Caution needs to be put in place to monitor these banks to reduce instability in the banking sector.</p>","PeriodicalId":45208,"journal":{"name":"Economic Papers","volume":"44 2","pages":"186-205"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1759-3441.12437","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144598652","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Causality by Vote: Aggregating Evidence on Causal Relations in Economic Growth Processes*","authors":"Manuel de Mier,&nbsp;Fernando Delbianco,&nbsp;Fernando Tohmé","doi":"10.1111/1759-3441.12436","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1759-3441.12436","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this paper, we investigate the performance of five causality-detection methods and the aggregation of their results when considering multiple units in a panel data setting. We employ voting rules as an aggregation procedure to determine which causal paths are identified for the sample population. Using both simulated and real-world panel data, we show the performance of these methods in detecting the correct causal paths by comparing them to a benchmark that represents a standard growth model as the <i>ground truth</i>.</p>","PeriodicalId":45208,"journal":{"name":"Economic Papers","volume":"44 2","pages":"164-185"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144598341","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Propagation of Geopolitical Risks to the Federal Reserve's Policy Toolkit","authors":"Langfeng Zhou","doi":"10.1111/1759-3441.12435","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1759-3441.12435","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper investigates the transmission mechanisms through which geopolitical risk (GPR) shocks affect Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy, incorporating both conventional and unconventional policy tools. It introduces a structural model – the Macro-Monetary Geopolitical Risk (MM-GPR) model – that integrates New Keynesian features, such as nominal frictions and rational expectations. The findings indicate that GPR significantly impacts the economy, prompting corresponding responses from the Fed. Heightened geopolitical uncertainty leads to rising inflation, suppressing real economic activity by reducing consumption and investment, while increasing unemployment. Two monetary policy experiments simulate the Fed's expansionary and contractionary responses under GPR surges and reliefs. The results reveal that, whether GPR rises or subsides, the optimal monetary policy for the Fed remains expansionary. These findings offer crucial guidance for policy-makers in navigating monetary policy amid geopolitical uncertainty. This paper contributes to both theoretical and empirical macroeconomic and monetary policy modelling by incorporating GPR shocks into the monetary policy framework, addressing a key gap in existing structural models by including unconventional policy tools.</p>","PeriodicalId":45208,"journal":{"name":"Economic Papers","volume":"44 1","pages":"15-48"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143831491","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Superannuation Tax Burdens: Conceptual Issues*","authors":"Jonathan James Pincus","doi":"10.1111/1759-3441.12434","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1759-3441.12434","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Taxes are levied on contributions to and earnings of Australian superannuation funds (but not on superannuants' withdrawals). For most people, the statutory rates are lower than the marginal personal income tax rate on their labour income. However, the effective rate of superannuation taxes can be much higher than the statutory rates, due to the compounding of taxes on fund earnings. Important normative and policy questions relate to whether the taxes on superannuation are too heavy or too light; imposed at the right junctures or not; equitable or inequitable between taxpayers. The answers should depend on objective claims about the effects of the taxation arrangements. To support those objective claims, various indices have been used to measure the burden of taxation on superannuation. This article questions the validity and interpretation of those indices and proposes an alternative. No attempt is made to sketch the optimal tax system for superannuation: The Tax and Transfer Policy Institute has issued a thoughtful paper on that (TTPI 2020). My objectives are limited: to critique the prevailing indicators of the effective rates of taxation and of the rate and quantum of tax concessions; to offer a preferred alternative; and to illustrate the quantitative and policy relevance.</p>","PeriodicalId":45208,"journal":{"name":"Economic Papers","volume":"44 2","pages":"119-135"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1759-3441.12434","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144598462","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The State of Economics*","authors":"Jacqui Dwyer","doi":"10.1111/1759-3441.12431","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1759-3441.12431","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article summarises the state of the economics discipline in Australia. It looks at who studies economics, the nature of the pipeline of economics graduates, the extent to which economic skills are rewarded by the labour market and indicators of economic literacy in society. It highlights the falling size and diversity of the economics student population and discusses its implications. In contrast to the current state of economics, it notes that a robust and inclusive discipline can raise economic literacy, shape the future of economic thought and practice, and improve the quality of both public discourse and public policy.</p>","PeriodicalId":45208,"journal":{"name":"Economic Papers","volume":"44 1","pages":"1-14"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143831375","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How Margaret Thatcher's Ideology Emboldened Her to Bite the Anti-inflationary Bullet","authors":"Ian M. McDonald","doi":"10.1111/1759-3441.12432","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1759-3441.12432","url":null,"abstract":"<p>To reduce the rate of inflation, Margaret Thatcher followed a policy of tight money. Milton Friedman in reviewing this policy predicted that it would lead to a <i>modest</i> reduction in output and employment (that) will be a side effect of reducing inflation to single figures by 1982, Friedman (1980, p. 14, my emphasis). I call this prediction Friedman's flaw. Evidence available when Thatcher introduced this policy would have revealed Friedman's flaw-the cost could have been expected to be immodest. From various biographical and other accounts, I put forward several reasons to explain how Thatcher's ideology made her susceptible to Friedman's flaw. I propose a theory based on loss aversion to explain the costly nature of disinflation.</p>","PeriodicalId":45208,"journal":{"name":"Economic Papers","volume":"44 1","pages":"49-61"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1759-3441.12432","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143831183","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"CEO Gender and ESG Controversies","authors":"Hussain Muhammad","doi":"10.1111/1759-3441.12430","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1759-3441.12430","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study examines the impact of chief executive officer (CEO) gender on environmental, social and governance (ESG) controversies among publicly listed non-financial firms in the USA from 2018 to 2023. The results show that firms led by female CEOs experience significantly fewer ESG controversies. In addition, the findings reveal that the mitigating impact of female CEOs on ESG controversies is more pronounced in firms with a critical mass of women directors and a female voice in corporate boards, creating an optimal environment for ethical and socially responsible practices, thereby reducing ESG controversies.</p>","PeriodicalId":45208,"journal":{"name":"Economic Papers","volume":"44 1","pages":"91-100"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143831330","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}