Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy最新文献

Investigating Time-Varying Causality Between Military Spending and Macroeconomic Indicators in the United States 调查美国军费开支与宏观经济指标之间随时间变化的因果关系

Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-11-06 DOI: 10.1515/peps-2023-0044

Isiaka Akande Raifu, Joshua Adeyemi Afolabi

{"title":"Investigating Time-Varying Causality Between Military Spending and Macroeconomic Indicators in the United States","authors":"Isiaka Akande Raifu, Joshua Adeyemi Afolabi","doi":"10.1515/peps-2023-0044","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2023-0044","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Military expenditures constitute a large chunk of the United States’ annual budget and its macroeconomic implications had been modelled using the Granger causality test, which suffers power loss when variables are subjected to structural breaks. This study explored alternative approaches by applying both traditional VAR-based Granger causality and the time-varying causality test techniques to obtain new evidence on the causality between military spending and selected macroeconomic indicators (economic growth, investment, unemployment and inflation rate) in the United States. Relevant data covering 1972Q1–2021Q2 were analysed. The results of the VAR-based Granger Causality test are dominated by a unidirectional causality that runs from macroeconomic variables to military spending and the result are robust to alternative military spending measures. However, the results of the time-varying causality method show that bidirectional causality dominates the relationship between military spending and some macroeconomic indicators, especially economic growth, investment and unemployment. With the variance observed in the causality between military spending and macroeconomic indicators, policymakers need to moderate military spending to achieve desired economic outcomes.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":"56 2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135585272","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

An Empirical Investigation on the Determinants of International Migration 国际移民决定因素的实证研究

Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-11-02 DOI: 10.1515/peps-2023-0038

Domenico Suppa, Salvatore D’Acunto, Francesco Schettino

引用次数: 0

Determinants of Military Spending in Africa: Do Institutions Matter? 非洲军费开支的决定因素:制度重要吗?

Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-10-30 DOI: 10.1515/peps-2023-0014

Arsène Aurelien Njamen Kengdo, Tii N. Nchofoung, Alice Kos A Mougnol

{"title":"Determinants of Military Spending in Africa: Do Institutions Matter?","authors":"Arsène Aurelien Njamen Kengdo, Tii N. Nchofoung, Alice Kos A Mougnol","doi":"10.1515/peps-2023-0014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2023-0014","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper focuses on the determinants of military spending in Africa by considering the role played by institutions. With data obtained between the years 1996–2019, the Driscoll and Kraay fixed effects, the Generalised Method of Moments (GMM), and the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) estimators are used. The findings suggest that government size, trade freedom, economic risk, and political risk decrease military spending, whereas government stability and military involvement in politics are found to raise it. Using alternative institutional variables, we find that corruption, government effectiveness, political stability, regulatory quality, the rule of law, and voice and accountability significantly diminish military spending in Africa. In addition, concerning the economic determinants, the results reveal that trade openness and total natural resource rents reduce military spending, while GDP per capita, inflation, and foreign debt stocks increase it. Looking at strategic determinants, arms imports, urban population, and ethnic tensions positively affect African military expenditures. Robustness checks show that these results change once regional specificities are considered. The study concludes that institutional factors could be an engine for evolution in Africa’s military spending.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":"68 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136107056","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Connectedness Among Geopolitical Risk, Inflation, Currency Values, and Exports by TVP-VAR Analysis: A Worldwide Perspective 地缘政治风险、通货膨胀、货币价值与出口的联系:全球视角

Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-10-23 DOI: 10.1515/peps-2023-0026

Nikolaos A. Kyriazis, Emmanouil M. L. Economou, Andreas Stergiou

{"title":"Connectedness Among Geopolitical Risk, Inflation, Currency Values, and Exports by TVP-VAR Analysis: A Worldwide Perspective","authors":"Nikolaos A. Kyriazis, Emmanouil M. L. Economou, Andreas Stergiou","doi":"10.1515/peps-2023-0026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2023-0026","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The article discusses the spillover impacts between geopolitical uncertainty, inflation, exchange rates, and exports worldwide by employing the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive (TVP-VAR) methodology. The net directional pairwise and net total directional causality among these variables is examined in major advanced economies (US, UK, Germany, France, Israel, South Korea and Japan) and rising economies (Russia, Türkiye, China, India, Brazil, and South Africa). Normal market conditions (since early 2000) and stressed ones since the latest crises (the Covid-19 disease and the Russia–Ukraine conflict) are covered. It is revealed that the national currency value constitutes the most influential determinant of exports and inflation but also in the system examined. Currency values exert direct impacts on inflation but also indirect, affecting exports and enhancing geopolitical risk as this is found to increase inflationary pressures. Intriguingly, this gives credence to the emergence of a new channel of inflation-creation that works through geopolitical risk. Such linkages are more pronounced in the US, South Korea, and Brazil while Germany and France present the weakest relations. Inflation, the currency value, and exports turned out to be very decisive regarding the geopolitical risk in Russia during the Russia–Ukraine war.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":"4 2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135365774","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

The European Union and Achieving Peace in Ukraine 欧盟与乌克兰实现和平

Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-10-16 DOI: 10.1515/peps-2023-0055

Giacomo Corneo

引用次数: 0

Do Remittances and Terrorism Impact Each Other? 汇款和恐怖主义是否相互影响?

IF 1

Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-09-05 DOI: 10.1515/peps-2023-0036

H. Kratou, Thierry Yogo

{"title":"Do Remittances and Terrorism Impact Each Other?","authors":"H. Kratou, Thierry Yogo","doi":"10.1515/peps-2023-0036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2023-0036","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Current studies do not conclusively tell us whether there is a causal relationship between remittances and terrorism. Yet, this question is important because the answer has clear implications for the way remittances are monitored and handled. Hence, with this paper, we move a step closer to a definitive answer by studying the impact of remittances on specific terrorist events in 180 countries over the period 1970–2020. We also look in reverse at whether acts of terrorism attract remittances. From event-study analysis and a panel vector autoregression model, Granger causality tests, and a Cholesky decomposition to isolate shocks, we find that we can neither reject the hypothesis that remittances do not Granger-cause terrorism nor reject that terrorism does not Granger-cause remittances. We also find that terrorism response to remittances shock is negative. These findings do not support previous studies that show remittances could be used to fund terrorist attacks. Further, the response of remittance to terrorism shock is null, excepting for Latin America which shows a statistical negative effect. Remittances in Latin America do not appear to respond to conflict. Some of our findings are new, others contradict a large stream of literature (i.e. remittances as a potential source of financing). The insights should be useful to policymakers to facilitate the flow of remittances that result in more disposable income of recipient families and possibly help households to cope with the financial loss of terrorist activity.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44041495","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Frontmatter 头版头条

Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1515/peps-2023-frontmatter3

引用次数: 0

Burden Sharing During MINUSMA, Fair Enough? A Preliminary Descriptive Account 马里稳定团负担分担是否公平?初步描述

IF 1

Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-08-28 DOI: 10.1515/peps-2023-0010

Michiel Wierenga, M. Bogers, R. Beeres, M. Bollen

引用次数: 0

Population, Institutions, and Violent Conflicts – How Important is Population Pressure in Violent Resource-Based Conflicts? 人口、制度和暴力冲突——基于资源的暴力冲突中人口压力有多重要?

IF 1

Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-08-01 DOI: 10.1515/peps-2023-0004

Kwami Adanu

引用次数: 0

Entrepreneurial Pathways to Peacemaking 建立和平的创业之路

Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-06-08 DOI: 10.1515/peps-2023-0019

Christopher J. Coyne, Michael R. Romero, Virgil Henry Storr

引用次数: 1