Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy最新文献

{"title":"Are the unhappy unemployed to blame for unrest? Scrutinising participation in the Arab Spring uprisings","authors":"Kari Paasonen","doi":"10.1515/peps-2019-0007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2019-0007","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Unemployment is considered a significant driver behind the so-called Arab Spring, and more generally behind protests, rebellions, and civil wars. However, the empirical evidence of this hypothesised link between unemployment and political instability is scant and contradictory. This article contributes to filling this gap. In addition, this is the first study which will concentrate on the role of unemployment in the case of the Arab Spring uprisings. The study utilises regression analysis and several survey data sets. The results show that compared to the employed, the unemployed are not more likely to have participated in the Arab Spring unrests or protests in the Arab world in general. Further analyses reveal that, as expected, the unemployed are less satisfied with life and not particularly interested in politics. In turn, being dissatisfied with life does not influence the likelihood that an individual revolts, but those interested in politics are considerably more active protesters. Taken together, the results indicate that the Arab unemployed were unhappy, but due to their low interest in politics this dissatisfaction did not drive them to the streets. These findings together with some earlier results from different corners of the world suggest that the linkage of unemployment and political instability is remarkably weaker than often assumed.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/peps-2019-0007","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47979728","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Cross-National Analysis of Forced Population Resettlement in Counterinsurgency Campaigns","authors":"Tobias Böhmelt, Christoph Dworschak, Ulrich Pilster, Julian Walterskirchen","doi":"10.1515/peps-2019-0022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2019-0022","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article studies the forcible relocation of large segments of the society in times of war. Theoretically, our work is based on the hearts-and-minds approach for explaining counterinsurgents’ strategies. We link this general framework to two more specific factors: insurgents’ external support and the incumbent’s status as a foreign occupier. The main contribution of our research is given by the cross-country empirical analysis, where we combine data on population displacement and counterinsurgency campaigns after World War II. We show that insurgents’ external support and incumbents’ status as a foreign occupier are among the main factors raising the risk of forced population resettlement. This article is a systematic, quantitative study of forced displacement across a large set of conflicts, and we demonstrate that the mechanisms behind forcible relocation as an indiscriminate strategy follow major trends across insurgencies.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/peps-2019-0022","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45687323","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Could the literature on the economic determinants of sanctions be biased?","authors":"P. Bergeijk, B. Demena, Alemayehu Reta, Gabriela Benalcazar Jativa, P. Kimararungu","doi":"10.1515/peps-2019-0048","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2019-0048","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The economic theory on economic sanctions gives strong indications that success depends positively on pre-sanction trade linkage and prior relations and negatively on sanction duration. However, the empirical literature has not arrived at consensus regarding these factors. Our research puzzle is the observation that despite more than three decades of empirical research on economic sanctions no consensus has yet emerged on the sign and significance of the impact of the key variables that theoretically determine the success of economic sanctions. In our research we explore reasons for the heterogeneity of the findings in the literature and the persistence nature of the debate.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/peps-2019-0048","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47445441","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Trade and Military Alliances: Evidence from NATO","authors":"F. J. Callado-Muñoz, J. Hromcová, N. Utrero-González","doi":"10.1515/peps-2019-0027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2019-0027","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In this paper we analyse the effect of multilateral defence alliances in arms trade among allies. We postulate that the access to the frontier technology weaponry enabled only to military allies will intensify arms trade. The benefits of such trade are claimed to be in security and technology diffusion. We execute an empirical analysis for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Results show that being a member or partner of NATO significantly increases arm imports coming from the alliance, and that this increase cannot be attributed to economic and additional country characteristics.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/peps-2019-0027","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49411500","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Four Ways We Know the Democratic Peace Correlation Does Not Exist in the State of Knowledge","authors":"M. Mousseau","doi":"10.1515/peps-2019-0023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2019-0023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Multiple studies have shown that when advanced-market “contract-intensive” economy is considered in a regression of fatal militarized interstate disputes, crises, or wars, the democratic peace correlation, the observed dearth of militarized conflict between democratic nations, becomes near zero and insignificant. Defenders of the existence of a correlation of democracy with peace claim these studies contain multiple errors. This article examines the state of evidence behind all claims in this debate. Four crucial facts are identified: (1) There is no report in print that shows democracy significant in a regression of fatal disputes controlling for contractualist economy that is unencumbered with controversial practices; (2) Every empirical defense of democracy has been rebutted, and the rebuttals remain uncontested; (3) There is no democratic peace in the nineteenth century, when there were no contractualist dyads but were democratic dyads; and (4) New analyses with revised direct data on contractualist economy covering 94% of observations over the largest-observed 1920–2010 period show that democracy without contractualist economy has a near-zero correlation with peace. Together, these facts inform us that there are no scientific grounds for deeming the democratic peace correlation as existing in the state of knowledge.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/peps-2019-0023","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41797742","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Winner of the 2019 Lewis Fry Richardson Award, Jean-Paul Azam","authors":"V. Thelen, S. Gates, Kartika Bhatia","doi":"10.1515/peps-2019-0041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2019-0041","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The award committee has chosen Jean-Paul Azam as the winner of the 2019 Lewis Fry Richardson Award in particular in recognition of his contributions to the study of violent conflict and its prevention. The jury highlighted the key role of Jean-Paul Azam’s works on applying rational choice theory to understand armed conflicts, providing a consistent conceptual framework. Many of the resulting hypotheses were empirically tested, usually with the help of some co-authors to identify the most relevant causes of violent conflicts and their prevention. His work has provided important insights on diverse topics relating to civil war and terrorism.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/peps-2019-0041","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47635534","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Israel’s Foreign Aid to Africa & UN Voting: An Empirical Examination","authors":"Carmela Lutmar, Leah Mandler","doi":"10.1515/peps-2019-0035","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2019-0035","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract According to International Relations scholarship, the main formal motivation for foreign aid is usually the unexpressed expectation for improvement of bilateral relations and overall international support. There is an anticipation that aid recipients will not “forget” their donors on the international stage, in particularly during important sessions at the UNGA. We test this assertion empirically on the case of Israeli foreign aid to African countries, using data on Israeli Official Development Aid provisions between 1997 and 2014, and data on voting patterns of aid recipients in the UN General Assembly (UNGA). Our results testify that Israeli bilateral humanitarian foreign aid not only has not provided its expected diplomatic revenues, but may perhaps even hindered African states’ support in the UN. Concomitantly, our results testify that Israeli Official Development Aid (ODA) does not have the anticipated long term effects on international support towards Israel, but instead only a short-lived influence. The results are informative about the usefulness of foreign aid as a diplomatic tool, with important policy implications for decision makers in Israel and worldwide.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/peps-2019-0035","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43196443","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Introduction to the Proceedings of the 19th Jan Tinbergen European Peace Science Conference","authors":"Kaisa Hinkkainen Elliott, Enzo Nussio","doi":"10.1515/peps-2019-0047","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2019-0047","url":null,"abstract":"The 19th Jan Tinbergen European Peace Science conference took place at the Institute of Social Studies in the Hague 24–26 June, 2019. Nearing the 20th anniversary of the establishment of the annual conference, it continues to be a vibrant international and interdisciplinary meeting with presentations engaging in broader theoretical and empirical debates as well as introductions to much needed new data collections in the conflict and peace science community. This special issue is a collection of some of the papers presented at the conference in the format of letters. Overall, the proceedings include 12 letters, which are short versions of the on-going research projects in the field of peace science broadly defined.1 This year, the topics reflect the diverse range of innovative approaches in studying peace and conflict. The first letter in the proceedings is the annual NEPS lecture by Jean-Paul Azam. This paper is deservedly the opening letter for the special issue as the NEPS lecture is the keynote of the conference, established to acknowledge the significant contribution the individual has made in the area of peace science.2 Jean-Paul’s lecture shows how instrumental variables can be used to evaluate policy effectiveness using historical data through an example from the Naxalite conflict in India. The article starts by highlighting how misleading regression results can be without proper instrumentation and worse yet, how such misleading findings can be used as basis for decisions by policy-makers for decades before such errors are identified. In order for econometricians to avoid making such mistakes in evaluating policy effectiveness, they need to uncover the policy maker’s true preferences (which are often at odds with the official ones) by controlling for the policy maker’s endogenous responses. The next letter in the proceedings follows naturally from Azam’s lecture as it introduces the work and contributions of the winner of the 2019 Lewis Fry Richardson Award: Jean-Paul Azam. Here Thelen, Gates, and Bhatia highlight how Azam’s work on explaining violent conflict and its prevention is highly deserving of the Lewis Fry Richardson Award due to being in the ‘spirit and nature of Lewis’ work on violence and armed conflict’. The authors describe Azam’s contribution in peace science through his research in areas such as terrorism and foreign aid, civilian targeting and civil wars with the use of formal theoretical models and econometric analysis. The remainder of the special issue includes articles in three broad categories: new data collection projects in the area of peace and conflict, empirical case studies of Mexico and Liberia, as well as letters researching foreign policy and behaviour of states in the international arena. In terms of the data collection articles, in the first article Huber and Basedau introduce their newly created Religious Minorities at Risk dataset, which covers overall 771 religious minorities worldwide from 2000 to 2014","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/peps-2019-0047","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49658762","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Let’s Call their Bluff: The Politics of Econometric Methodology","authors":"J. Azam","doi":"10.1515/PEPS-2019-0029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/PEPS-2019-0029","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This short paper focuses on econometric issues raised by intentional government interventions aimed at influencing some politically sensitive outcomes. It first presents an example where multiple regression analysis provides quite a misleading diagnosis about foreign aid and immigration that can be rectified by using a causal analysis based on instrumental variables. It then offers a simple theoretical framework to bring out the basic information asymmetries affecting the game between the econometrician and the policy maker and their implications for the choice of instruments in a near-identification strategy. This approach is shown to provide a strong political judgement in the case of the armed violence between local governments and “Maoist” insurgents in eight states of India. Proper econometric analysis shows that the initiative of the insurgency cannot be blamed on the rebels.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/PEPS-2019-0029","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46988788","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Introducing the Human Rights Violations Dataset for the Kurdish Conflict in Turkey, 1990–2018","authors":"Demet Yalcin Mousseau, Justin Napolitano, Alex Olsen","doi":"10.1515/peps-2019-0036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2019-0036","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study introduces a new event dataset on the human rights violations in the Kurdish conflict in Turkey perpetrated by both the State and the armed rebel group, the PKK (the Kurdistan Workers Party), from 1990 to 2018. The dataset codes human rights violation events that victimize civilians, including women and children, identifying the perpetrator, type of victim, type of human right violation, and the place of the violation. The categories of human rights violations include the physical and political rights drawn from the laws and treaties adopted by the U.N., such as killings or deaths of civilians, illegal detention and arrests, and freedom of peaceful assembly. The dataset is useful in examining the trends and motives of perpetrators in committing these violations and for seeking to understand the extent to which state and non-state rebel groups abide by international norms in armed conflicts. The framework of this dataset, although developed for the Kurdish conflict, is applicable and can be extended to other armed conflict cases, facilitating cross-conflict research on a more comparative basis.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/peps-2019-0036","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49555632","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}