Connectedness Among Geopolitical Risk, Inflation, Currency Values, and Exports by TVP-VAR Analysis: A Worldwide Perspective

IF 1.7 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE
Nikolaos A. Kyriazis, Emmanouil M. L. Economou, Andreas Stergiou
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Abstract The article discusses the spillover impacts between geopolitical uncertainty, inflation, exchange rates, and exports worldwide by employing the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive (TVP-VAR) methodology. The net directional pairwise and net total directional causality among these variables is examined in major advanced economies (US, UK, Germany, France, Israel, South Korea and Japan) and rising economies (Russia, Türkiye, China, India, Brazil, and South Africa). Normal market conditions (since early 2000) and stressed ones since the latest crises (the Covid-19 disease and the Russia–Ukraine conflict) are covered. It is revealed that the national currency value constitutes the most influential determinant of exports and inflation but also in the system examined. Currency values exert direct impacts on inflation but also indirect, affecting exports and enhancing geopolitical risk as this is found to increase inflationary pressures. Intriguingly, this gives credence to the emergence of a new channel of inflation-creation that works through geopolitical risk. Such linkages are more pronounced in the US, South Korea, and Brazil while Germany and France present the weakest relations. Inflation, the currency value, and exports turned out to be very decisive regarding the geopolitical risk in Russia during the Russia–Ukraine war.
地缘政治风险、通货膨胀、货币价值与出口的联系:全球视角
摘要本文采用时变参数向量自回归(TVP-VAR)方法,讨论了地缘政治不确定性、通货膨胀、汇率和全球出口之间的溢出影响。在主要发达经济体(美国、英国、德国、法国、以色列、韩国和日本)和新兴经济体(俄罗斯、土耳其、中国、印度、巴西和南非)中,研究了这些变量之间的净双向因果关系和净总定向因果关系。涵盖了自2000年初以来的正常市场状况和自最近的危机(Covid-19疾病和俄罗斯-乌克兰冲突)以来的紧张市场状况。结果显示,国家货币价值构成出口和通货膨胀的最具影响力的决定因素,但也在制度审查。币值对通货膨胀有直接影响,但也有间接影响,影响出口并增加地缘政治风险,因为这增加了通货膨胀压力。有趣的是,这让人们相信,一种通过地缘政治风险产生通胀的新渠道正在出现。这种联系在美国、韩国和巴西更为明显,而德国和法国的关系最弱。在俄乌战争期间,通货膨胀、货币价值和出口被证明是俄罗斯地缘政治风险的决定性因素。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.50
自引率
10.00%
发文量
13
期刊介绍: The journal accepts rigorous, non-technical papers especially in research methods in peace science, but also regular papers dealing with all aspects of the peace science field, from pure abstract theory to practical applied research. As a guide to topics: - Arms Control and International Security - Artificial Intelligence and Cognitive Studies - Behavioral Studies - Conflict Analysis and Management - Cooperation, Alliances and Games - Crises and War Studies - Critical Economic Aspects of the Global Crises - Deterrence Theory - Empirical and Historical Studies on the Causes of War - Game, Prospect and Related Theory - Harmony and Conflict - Hierarchy Theory
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