Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy最新文献_第2页

The Conditional Curse, a Missing Dimension of the Oil Curse — Economic Sanctions Channel in a Petrostate Economy: A Curse or a Blessing 条件诅咒，石油诅咒的缺失维度——石油国家经济中的经济制裁渠道:诅咒还是祝福

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Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy Pub Date : 2023-07-18 DOI: 10.1142/s1793993323500175

Basem Ertimi, T. Sarmidi, M. Cahyadin, Basem Oqab

{"title":"The Conditional Curse, a Missing Dimension of the Oil Curse — Economic Sanctions Channel in a Petrostate Economy: A Curse or a Blessing","authors":"Basem Ertimi, T. Sarmidi, M. Cahyadin, Basem Oqab","doi":"10.1142/s1793993323500175","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s1793993323500175","url":null,"abstract":"This paper seeks to expand the concept of a contractual natural resource curse and suggests another channel that may not be addressed as one of the resource curse channels in petrostate countries since there remains little understanding of the Resource Curse Hypothesis (RCH), by which economic sanctions bring a new manifestation and shape the prospect of international economic relations. A sample of 21 petrostate economies is investigated over 1995–2018. The empirical results show a symptom of the oil curse from a new transmission channel under the international relations arena. This result supports our argument that the interactive relationship between sanctions and oil dependence affects sanctioned countries’ economic growth. Transmission channels determine whether natural resources are either a curse or a blessing. Our study found evidence supporting the concept of the oil resource curse taking place through economic sanctions. Hence, the presence of such a negative link casts new light on the debate concerning the influence of natural resource/oil resource curse on the international relations–growth nexus. Policy research needs to be conducted in understanding and mitigating the resource curse.","PeriodicalId":44073,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82510680","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Demand volatility and firm export margins: Evidence from Egypt 需求波动和坚挺的出口利润率:来自埃及的证据

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Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy Pub Date : 2023-04-29 DOI: 10.1142/s1793993323500151

Y. Kamal

引用次数: 0

Predicting Crude Oil Future Price Using Traditional and Artificial Intelligence-Based Model: Comparative Analysis 基于传统模型和人工智能模型的原油期货价格预测:比较分析

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Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy Pub Date : 2023-04-29 DOI: 10.1142/s179399332350014x

Sanjeev Kadam, Anshul Agrawal, Aryan Bajaj, R. Agarwal, Rameesha Kalra, J. Shah

引用次数: 0

Working of Expectations Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission in India 印度货币政策传导预期通道的运作

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Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy Pub Date : 2023-04-28 DOI: 10.1142/s1793993323500126

A. Goyal, Prashant Parab

{"title":"Working of Expectations Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission in India","authors":"A. Goyal, Prashant Parab","doi":"10.1142/s1793993323500126","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s1793993323500126","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we examine the working of the expectations channel of monetary policy transmission for India, first by investigating the role of inflation expectations in an aggregate supply-demand (AS-AD) adapted to the Indian economy. Second, formulating an inflation function determining convergence of core inflation to its expected value in a fixed point arising through interactions between central bank (CB) expected inflation and expectations of different agents. Finally, we estimate SVARs with variables derived from the above exercises. We first estimate how expectations shocks affect macroeconomic aggregates. Second, we identify the shocks affecting expectations of households and professional forecasters (PFs). In addition, we estimate shocks influencing core inflation. Results suggest the expectation channel worked through interactions between PF forecasts and CB projections, with causality from CB projections to core and from core to household expectations. Supply shocks had short-run effects but core inflation dominated in the longer run. Expectations converged. The expectations channel of transmission to inflation was more effective through communication than through the policy rate, since the rate had low and sometimes even perverse effects. The relatively low impact of demand variables on inflation supports the hypothesized AS-AD structure.","PeriodicalId":44073,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80925492","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Distributional Dynamics Amidst Resource Abundance: The Implications of Structural and Institutional Transformations 资源丰富中的分配动态:结构和制度变革的影响

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Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy Pub Date : 2023-04-22 DOI: 10.1142/s1793993323500138

E. Uche, N. Nwaeze, Joseph Enyioma Akonye

{"title":"Distributional Dynamics Amidst Resource Abundance: The Implications of Structural and Institutional Transformations","authors":"E. Uche, N. Nwaeze, Joseph Enyioma Akonye","doi":"10.1142/s1793993323500138","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s1793993323500138","url":null,"abstract":"A critical evaluation of prior studies indicates that the roles of structural and institutional transformations in moderating natural resource-inequality dynamics is understudied. Moreover, very little is known about such dynamics in resource-rich sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. To cover the literature gaps, this study harnesses annual panel datasets comprising natural resource rent, structural transformation, institutional quality and technology for the top 10 resource-rich SSA countries over 2000–2018 for empirical evaluations. After ascertaining long-run coevolution among the series, the estimates of the panel quantile regression depict that natural resource abundance is the leading cause of income disparities in these countries; hence, it promotes inequality significantly across all quantiles of the distributions. Furthermore, at the 5th quantile, both structural and institutional transformations deaccelerate inequality insignificantly, but at the 10th quantile, institutional reforms engender equitable income distributions. Notably, beyond the 10th and 50th quantiles, institutional and structural reforms significantly promote income disparities. Additionally, at the 10th quantile, technology marginally promotes equitable income distributions, but at the 60th, 70th and 80th quantiles, technology significantly promotes inequality. Implicatively, a blend of structural reforms and technological improvements within the thresholds around 10th and 50th quantiles could ensure equitable prosperities in the region. Among other policy options highlighted herein, pro-equity redistributive policies that ensure no one is left behind are expedient to eliminate income disparities in these countries.","PeriodicalId":44073,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88691475","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Electronic Commerce Research during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Bibliometric Analysis COVID-19大流行期间的电子商务研究:文献计量学分析

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Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy Pub Date : 2023-04-13 DOI: 10.1142/s1793993323500102

Radu Șimandan

{"title":"Electronic Commerce Research during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Bibliometric Analysis","authors":"Radu Șimandan","doi":"10.1142/s1793993323500102","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s1793993323500102","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a significant shift towards electronic commerce (e-commerce), as people have turned to various methods of e-commerce to deal with imposed mobility restrictions. This paper provides a bibliometric analysis of the research conducted in the field of e-commerce, focusing on studies related to the COVID-19 pandemic. The study aims to identify the key features, most influential papers, prevalent themes and methodologies, and the relationship between the terms used in the relevant publications. The data for the analysis was obtained from the Scopus database and consisted of 629 English-language research papers, book chapters, and review papers published between August 2020 and December 2022. BibExcel and VOSviewer software tools were utilized to assist with the selection of relevant information, perform the bibliometric analysis, and generate graphical representations of the results. The analysis indicates that China was the most productive geographical region, with the United States and India following closely behind. Sustainability journal from Switzerland was found to be the most productive in the field, followed by Frontiers in Psychology and the Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services. Bina Nusantara University in Indonesia was identified as the most productive institution, with Bucharest University of Economic Studies in Romania and Zhejiang University in China following closely behind. The most influential paper was found to be by Kim (2020), followed by Dannenberg et al. (2020), and Tran (2021). To address the limitations in the current literature, future research can undertake a comparative study of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the field of e-commerce over time, as well as analyze the dominant themes both prior to and post-pandemic. Investigating the correlation between disruptive events like the COVID-19 pandemic and the factors that drive e-commerce adoption constitutes a worthy and captivating field for future research.","PeriodicalId":44073,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-04-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89454227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Impact of FDI and Financial Development on Entrepreneurship in ASEAN Countries: A Panel Analysis FDI和金融发展对东盟国家企业家精神的影响:一个面板分析

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Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy Pub Date : 2023-04-13 DOI: 10.1142/s1793993323500114

A. M. AlOmari, Trung Minh Ngo

引用次数: 0

Changing Trade Pattern, ICT, and Employment: Evidence Across Countries 变化中的贸易模式、信息通信技术和就业:各国的证据

Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy Pub Date : 2023-03-31 DOI: 10.1142/s1793993323500096

Manish Kumar Sharma, Anwesha Aditya

引用次数: 0

Bitcoin Forecasting Performance Measurement: A Comparative Study of Econometric, Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence-Based Models 比特币预测性能测量:计量经济学、机器学习和基于人工智能的模型的比较研究

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Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy Pub Date : 2023-02-09 DOI: 10.1142/s1793993323500084

Anshul Agrawal, Mukta Mani, S. Varshney

{"title":"Bitcoin Forecasting Performance Measurement: A Comparative Study of Econometric, Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence-Based Models","authors":"Anshul Agrawal, Mukta Mani, S. Varshney","doi":"10.1142/s1793993323500084","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s1793993323500084","url":null,"abstract":"Bitcoin is a type of Cryptocurrency that relies on Blockchain technology and its growing popularity is leading to its acceptance as an alternative investment. However, the future value of Bitcoin is difficult to predict due to its significant volatility and speculative behavior. Considering this, the key objective of this research is to assess Bitcoins’ explosive behavior during 2013–2022 including the most volatile COVID-19 pandemic and Russia–Ukraine war period and to forecast its price by comparing the predictive abilities offive different econometric, machine learning and artificial Intelligence methods namely, ARIMA, Decision Tree, Random Forest, SVM, and Artificial Intelligence Long Short-Term Memory Network (AI-LSTM). The precision of such methodologies has been assessed using root mean square error (RMSE) and mean average per cent error (MAPE) values. The findings confirmed that the AI-LSTM model performs better than other forecast models in predicting Bitcoins’ opening price on the following working day. Therefore, Bitcoin traders, policymakers, and financial institutions can use the model effectively to better forecast the next day’s opening price.","PeriodicalId":44073,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80152323","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Digitization, Ageing Population and Bank Profitability: Evidence in Light of Two Global Crises 数字化、人口老龄化与银行盈利能力:基于两次全球危机的证据

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Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy Pub Date : 2023-02-04 DOI: 10.1142/s1793993323500072

Indranarain Ramlall

引用次数: 0