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Testing the Validity of the J-Curve Hypothesis Between China and the United States 中国与美国j曲线假设的有效性检验
IF 0.7
Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy Pub Date : 2022-12-15 DOI: 10.1142/s1793993323500047
Monika Jain, K. Das
{"title":"Testing the Validity of the J-Curve Hypothesis Between China and the United States","authors":"Monika Jain, K. Das","doi":"10.1142/s1793993323500047","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s1793993323500047","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the efficacy of currency management as a policy tool to improve trade balance by analyzing the impact of the real exchange rate on the bilateral trade between the United States and China. The paper builds upon the existing literature and empirical analysis is carried out based on the J-curve hypothesis using quarterly data from 2000Q1 to 2021Q4. The vector-auto regression (VAR) model is estimated using China and the United States’ trade balance, real exchange rate, and GDP. The impulse response functions provide evidence of the J-curve. A shock in Yuan (CNY)-US dollar real exchange rate leads to initial deterioration but improvement in the trade balance in favor of China over subsequent quarters. The results hold for various sub-periods of analysis, i.e., after the exchange rate was allowed to fluctuate since July 2005. Evidence supports that the policy of managing the real exchange rate might have yielded desired results for China.","PeriodicalId":44073,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77009883","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Estimations of the Sacrifice Ratio Through Dual Regimes: An Evidence from Indian Perspective 双重制度下的牺牲率估算:来自印度视角的证据
IF 0.7
Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy Pub Date : 2022-12-07 DOI: 10.1142/s1793993323500060
D. Sharma, Amritkant Mishra
{"title":"Estimations of the Sacrifice Ratio Through Dual Regimes: An Evidence from Indian Perspective","authors":"D. Sharma, Amritkant Mishra","doi":"10.1142/s1793993323500060","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s1793993323500060","url":null,"abstract":"This investigation applies a VAR and an ARDL model to estimate the sacrifice ratio in the period of 1968–2018 subject to two regimes in India. The range for the sacrifice ratio mostly lies between [Formula: see text]0.5 and 1 for the period of 1968–2002 while also experiencing sensitive shifts of [Formula: see text]10 and 15. For the period of 2002–2018, the ratio lies between [Formula: see text]3 and 5. Furthermore, the long run estimate of the sacrifice ratio is [Formula: see text]2.35 and the short run is [Formula: see text]0.35. It is concluded that the period of 1968–2002 was more sensitive and more prone to disinflationary costs than gains while the period of 2002–2018 is more resilient and is characterized by both costs and gains to disinflation. The gains from disinflation for the period of 2002–2018 exceed those of the period of 1968–2002. In a comparative perspective, the costs to disinflation for India are much less than the usual range of the sacrifice ratio for advanced economies.","PeriodicalId":44073,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74616106","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Government Interventions to Ameliorate Covid-19 Recession: The Case of Small, Micro, and Medium Firm’s Survival in South Africa 政府干预缓解Covid-19经济衰退:以南非中小微企业生存为例
IF 0.7
Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy Pub Date : 2022-12-07 DOI: 10.1142/s1793993323500059
S. Zhou, T. Chimucheka, A. Ayandibu, M. Masuku
{"title":"Government Interventions to Ameliorate Covid-19 Recession: The Case of Small, Micro, and Medium Firm’s Survival in South Africa","authors":"S. Zhou, T. Chimucheka, A. Ayandibu, M. Masuku","doi":"10.1142/s1793993323500059","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s1793993323500059","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes the impact of government economic interventions to ameliorate the COVID-19 pandemic on the survival of small, micro, and medium enterprises (SMMEs) in South Africa. We use the Cox Proportional Hazards approach and cross-sectional data from King Cetshwayo District Municipality covering 641 SMMEs. The study finds that tax relief was the most important intervention used to sustain SMMEs during the pandemic. Other interventions, such as cash grants and cheap credit, were also used during the period but had a small impact. Our findings support the interventions used by the South African government in mitigating the negative consequences of the pandemic-induced lockdown on small businesses. However, we also note that the magnitude at which the interventions were made could have been lower than what is optimal. The paper recommends the need to increase and have sustainable targeted expenditure during the difficult times to enhance the resilience of SMMEs to accelerate economic development and growth.","PeriodicalId":44073,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82458259","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Stochastic and Club Convergence in Real Wages in European Union: Evidence from Aggregate and Sector Level Data 欧盟实际工资的随机收敛和俱乐部收敛:来自总量和部门水平数据的证据
IF 0.7
Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy Pub Date : 2022-11-26 DOI: 10.1142/s1793993323500023
Ivan D. Trofimov, Ahmed Sharaan
{"title":"Stochastic and Club Convergence in Real Wages in European Union: Evidence from Aggregate and Sector Level Data","authors":"Ivan D. Trofimov, Ahmed Sharaan","doi":"10.1142/s1793993323500023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s1793993323500023","url":null,"abstract":"The paper examined real wage convergence across 27 European economies, at aggregate and sectoral levels, using the panel unit root tests of stochastic convergence and the club clustering procedure. Convergence was absent for a panel as a whole, but present within the clubs. In most sectors, the common component of the relative wages was stationary, while idiosyncratic component contained unit roots, suggesting the country- and sector-specific drivers of convergence and only transitory effects of exogenous forces. The most pronounced club convergence was observed in the sectors characterized by significant labor mobility, knowledge intensity and speed of technological change.","PeriodicalId":44073,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89196798","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Financial Sector Development and Energy Consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does Institutional Governance Matter? Dynamic Panel Data Analysis 撒哈拉以南非洲的金融部门发展与能源消费:制度治理重要吗?动态面板数据分析
IF 0.7
Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy Pub Date : 2022-11-12 DOI: 10.1142/s1793993323500035
Paul Ndubuisi, K. Okere, E. Iheanacho
{"title":"Financial Sector Development and Energy Consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does Institutional Governance Matter? Dynamic Panel Data Analysis","authors":"Paul Ndubuisi, K. Okere, E. Iheanacho","doi":"10.1142/s1793993323500035","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s1793993323500035","url":null,"abstract":"The failure of energy economists and planners to comprehend the dynamics and paradigm shift in the finance and institutional quality domain that drive energy use is blamed for the ongoing energy consumption concerns. Consequently, this study revisits and contributes to repositories by examining the relationship between finance-renewable energy consumption and institution-renewable energy consumption. The research question raised is: Do governance indicators moderate the impact of finance on renewable energy consumption? With panel dataset of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa spanning from 2010 to 2020 and using political stability, voice and accountability, government effectiveness, and regulatory quality indicators of governance, the research output is as follows: (i) Financial development exerts a significant positive impact on renewable energy consumption and intensity, but the level of impact is weak (i.e., at a 10% level significant). (ii) The governance indicators significantly drag renewable energy consumption and intensity. (iii) The negative interaction between financial development and governance indicators is sufficient to worsen the weak relationship between finance and renewable energy in sub-Saharan Africa. (iv) Governance threshold eroded the weak positive effect of financial development on renewable energy consumption and intensity, leading to negative synergy effect in some cases, and (v) The net effect from the moderating impact of governance indicators on finance is significantly different across model specification. The study demonstrates the undeveloped nature of finance and institutional framework in sub-Saharan Africa, considering the weak association between the key variables.","PeriodicalId":44073,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-11-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90392331","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
An Application of a TVP-VAR Extended Joint Connected Approach to Investigate Dynamic Spillover Interrelations of Cryptocurrency and Stock Market in Vietnam TVP-VAR扩展联合关联方法在越南加密货币与股票市场动态溢出相互关系研究中的应用
IF 0.7
Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy Pub Date : 2022-09-30 DOI: 10.1142/s179399332250017x
To Trung Thanh, Leavitt Ha, N. Huyen, Tran Anh Ngoc
{"title":"An Application of a TVP-VAR Extended Joint Connected Approach to Investigate Dynamic Spillover Interrelations of Cryptocurrency and Stock Market in Vietnam","authors":"To Trung Thanh, Leavitt Ha, N. Huyen, Tran Anh Ngoc","doi":"10.1142/s179399332250017x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s179399332250017x","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we employ a time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) in combination with an extended joint connectedness approach to study interlinkages between the cryptocurrency and Vietnam’s stock market by characterizing their connectedness starting from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2021. We report that the COVID-19 health shocks impact the system-wide dynamic connectedness, which reaches a peak during the COVID-19 pandemic. Net total directional connectedness suggests that the cryptocurrency market significantly impacts Vietnam’s stock market, especially those with the largest market capitalization like Bitcoin and Ethereum. This market can be held accountable for Vietnam’s stock market volatility. In encountering the COVID-19 pandemic, the effect of the three cryptocurrencies reduced before 2020, around the end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020. However, from the end of 2020–2021, while cryptocurrencies continued their roles as net transmitters for Vietnam’s stock market.","PeriodicalId":44073,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72872947","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Effect of Aid for Trade and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows on the Utilization of Unilateral Trade Preferences Offered by the QUAD Countries 贸易援助和外国直接投资流入对四国提供的单边贸易优惠的影响
IF 0.7
Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy Pub Date : 2022-09-26 DOI: 10.1142/s1793993326500018
S. Gnangnon, H. Iyer
{"title":"Effect of Aid for Trade and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows on the Utilization of Unilateral Trade Preferences Offered by the QUAD Countries","authors":"S. Gnangnon, H. Iyer","doi":"10.1142/s1793993326500018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s1793993326500018","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the effect of Aid for Trade (AfT) flows and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, as well as their interplay on the utilization of non-reciprocal trade preferences (NRTPs) offered by the Quadrilaterals (i.e., QUAD countries, which are Canada, the European Union, Japan, and the United States). Two major blocks of NRTPs provided by the QUAD countries have been considered, namely, the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) programs and other NRTPs. The analysis has covered 114 beneficiary countries of these NRTPs and the period of 2002–2018. Several findings have emerged from the analysis. Total AfT flows and FDI inflows contribute to enhancing the utilization rate of both GSP programs and other NRTPs, and are strongly complementary in affecting positively the utilization of both types of NRTPs. Finally, beneficiary countries’ level of export product diversification matters for the effect of both AfT flows and FDI inflows on the utilization of NRTPs. The conclusion section discusses the implications of these findings.","PeriodicalId":44073,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87720336","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Fiscal Decentralization in the Context of Ukraine’s European Integration 乌克兰欧洲一体化背景下的财政分权
IF 0.7
Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy Pub Date : 2022-09-10 DOI: 10.1142/s1793993322500132
T. Skoromtsova, V. Chaika, Anastasiia Onishcyik, L. Holovii, Liliia Pankova
{"title":"Fiscal Decentralization in the Context of Ukraine’s European Integration","authors":"T. Skoromtsova, V. Chaika, Anastasiia Onishcyik, L. Holovii, Liliia Pankova","doi":"10.1142/s1793993322500132","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s1793993322500132","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines fiscal decentralization in the context of Ukraine’s European integration. It is established that fiscal decentralization is to give local self-governments autonomy in determining revenues and expenditures, including the authority to collect taxes and fees. As a result, the impact of fiscal decentralization on regions’ tax capacity was assessed. It is proved that fiscal decentralization has a positive influence on financial development of regions. The lack of efficiency and declarativeness of the reform in Ukraine are argued. Further steps on the path of fiscal decentralization are proposed in order to increase the level of local self-governments’ financial autonomy.","PeriodicalId":44073,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84009270","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows of Pakistan with Major Trading Partners: Is there an Asymmetric Third-Country Effect? 巴基斯坦与主要贸易伙伴的汇率波动与贸易流动:是否存在不对称的第三国效应?
IF 0.7
Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy Pub Date : 2022-08-03 DOI: 10.1142/s1793993322500168
P. Akhtar, Sana Ullah, Muhammad Tariq Majeed, Ahmed Usman
{"title":"Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows of Pakistan with Major Trading Partners: Is there an Asymmetric Third-Country Effect?","authors":"P. Akhtar, Sana Ullah, Muhammad Tariq Majeed, Ahmed Usman","doi":"10.1142/s1793993322500168","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s1793993322500168","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, we explored the effect of third-country exchange rate volatility on Pakistan’s trade with the major trading partner e.g., USA, Germany, UK, China, Italy, Spain, France, Japan, and Malaysia. To capture the effect of third-country exchange rate volatility, we used monthly data of exports and imports of Pakistan covering the period from January 1981 to January 2018. We used the NARDL technique to obtain the asymmetric results, which are more applicable in reality due to the difference in traders’ response to increased volatility as compared to when they are dealing with decreased volatility. This technique captured the cointegration in the models. The findings of this study suggest that the volatility of the exchange rate has importance in Pakistan trade. The results revealed that in both short-run and long-run, the third-country effect is found significant in eight export and eight import models. The results of both models revealed that the effects of exchange rate volatility are asymmetric in nature on Pakistan’s trade with major trading partners.","PeriodicalId":44073,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89000934","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Safe Assets at Financial Globalization 金融全球化中的安全资产
IF 0.7
Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy Pub Date : 2022-07-30 DOI: 10.1142/s1793993322500156
L. Hung
{"title":"Safe Assets at Financial Globalization","authors":"L. Hung","doi":"10.1142/s1793993322500156","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s1793993322500156","url":null,"abstract":"The paper explores the impact of safe assets on the economic growth on the financial globalization context. The method employs both cross-section and panel data regression on a data sample of 148 economies, both advanced and developing ones, over the 1990–2019 period. The robustness analysis is carried out by controlling for different sub-sampling data, including advanced economies compared with emerging and developing economies, and 3 consecutive 10-year periods from 1990 to 2019. The empirical evidence establishes an inverted-U-shaped dependence pattern of economic growth on the assets safety, measured by the sovereign debts rating. The economic growth is first increasing then decreasing on the assets safety, with the turning point being the value at 12.0 of sovereign debts rating. Thus, the assets safety only exerts a positive impact on the economic growth for the low safety level.","PeriodicalId":44073,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77342002","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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