需求波动和坚挺的出口利润率:来自埃及的证据

IF 1.3 Q3 ECONOMICS
Y. Kamal
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引用次数: 0

摘要

该研究利用详细的海关数据和高维固定效应解释了埃及企业在目的地国需求波动下的出口行为。研究发现,需求波动对集约型和粗放型出口利润率均有负面影响。对于那些减少出口销售的大公司来说,尤其是随着时间的推移,对更不稳定的目的地/产品的出口销售尤其明显,更有可能退出出口更不稳定的产品,更不可能进入(退出)更不稳定的目的地。这些发现证实了最近的文献强调大公司对外国需求冲击的更大弹性。它们也符合风险厌恶模型,即平均风险溢价随着公司规模的增加而增加。考虑到对大型出口国不成比例的不利影响,我们发现更高的需求波动性导致总出口下降,特别是对地理上接近且贸易成本低的国家。因此,需求的不确定性削弱了降低贸易壁垒对出口的积极影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Demand volatility and firm export margins: Evidence from Egypt
The study explains the export behavior of Egyptian firms under demand volatility in destination countries using detailed customs data and high-dimensional fixed effects. It finds that demand volatility negatively affects both the intensive and extensive export margins. The effects are particularly evident for large firms which reduce their export sales — especially over time — to more volatile destinations/products, are more likely to exit from exporting more volatile products and are less (more) likely to enter (exit) more volatile destinations. These findings confirm recent literature that emphasizes the greater elasticity of large firms to foreign demand shocks. They are also in line with risk aversion models in which the average risk premium increases with firm size. Given the disproportionate adverse impacts on large exporters, we find that higher demand volatility leads to lower aggregate exports, especially to geographically close and low trade costs countries. Accordingly, uncertainty in demand lessens the positive effect of lower trade barriers on exports.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
18
期刊介绍: Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP) is a peer-reviewed journal that seeks to publish high-quality research papers that explore important dimensions of the global economic system (including trade, finance, investment and labor flows). JICEP is particularly interested in potentially influential research that is analytical or empirical but with heavy emphasis on international dimensions of economics, business and related public policy. Papers must aim to be thought-provoking and combine rigor with readability so as to be of interest to both researchers as well as policymakers. JICEP is not region-specific and especially welcomes research exploring the growing economic interdependence between countries and regions.
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