{"title":"需求波动和坚挺的出口利润率:来自埃及的证据","authors":"Y. Kamal","doi":"10.1142/s1793993323500151","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The study explains the export behavior of Egyptian firms under demand volatility in destination countries using detailed customs data and high-dimensional fixed effects. It finds that demand volatility negatively affects both the intensive and extensive export margins. The effects are particularly evident for large firms which reduce their export sales — especially over time — to more volatile destinations/products, are more likely to exit from exporting more volatile products and are less (more) likely to enter (exit) more volatile destinations. These findings confirm recent literature that emphasizes the greater elasticity of large firms to foreign demand shocks. They are also in line with risk aversion models in which the average risk premium increases with firm size. Given the disproportionate adverse impacts on large exporters, we find that higher demand volatility leads to lower aggregate exports, especially to geographically close and low trade costs countries. Accordingly, uncertainty in demand lessens the positive effect of lower trade barriers on exports.","PeriodicalId":44073,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3000,"publicationDate":"2023-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Demand volatility and firm export margins: Evidence from Egypt\",\"authors\":\"Y. Kamal\",\"doi\":\"10.1142/s1793993323500151\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The study explains the export behavior of Egyptian firms under demand volatility in destination countries using detailed customs data and high-dimensional fixed effects. It finds that demand volatility negatively affects both the intensive and extensive export margins. The effects are particularly evident for large firms which reduce their export sales — especially over time — to more volatile destinations/products, are more likely to exit from exporting more volatile products and are less (more) likely to enter (exit) more volatile destinations. These findings confirm recent literature that emphasizes the greater elasticity of large firms to foreign demand shocks. They are also in line with risk aversion models in which the average risk premium increases with firm size. Given the disproportionate adverse impacts on large exporters, we find that higher demand volatility leads to lower aggregate exports, especially to geographically close and low trade costs countries. Accordingly, uncertainty in demand lessens the positive effect of lower trade barriers on exports.\",\"PeriodicalId\":44073,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-04-29\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1142/s1793993323500151\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s1793993323500151","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Demand volatility and firm export margins: Evidence from Egypt
The study explains the export behavior of Egyptian firms under demand volatility in destination countries using detailed customs data and high-dimensional fixed effects. It finds that demand volatility negatively affects both the intensive and extensive export margins. The effects are particularly evident for large firms which reduce their export sales — especially over time — to more volatile destinations/products, are more likely to exit from exporting more volatile products and are less (more) likely to enter (exit) more volatile destinations. These findings confirm recent literature that emphasizes the greater elasticity of large firms to foreign demand shocks. They are also in line with risk aversion models in which the average risk premium increases with firm size. Given the disproportionate adverse impacts on large exporters, we find that higher demand volatility leads to lower aggregate exports, especially to geographically close and low trade costs countries. Accordingly, uncertainty in demand lessens the positive effect of lower trade barriers on exports.
期刊介绍:
Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP) is a peer-reviewed journal that seeks to publish high-quality research papers that explore important dimensions of the global economic system (including trade, finance, investment and labor flows). JICEP is particularly interested in potentially influential research that is analytical or empirical but with heavy emphasis on international dimensions of economics, business and related public policy. Papers must aim to be thought-provoking and combine rigor with readability so as to be of interest to both researchers as well as policymakers. JICEP is not region-specific and especially welcomes research exploring the growing economic interdependence between countries and regions.