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National Containment Policies and International Cooperation 国家遏制政策和国际合作
CEPR: International Macroeconomics & Finance (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3586638
T. Beck, W. Wagner
{"title":"National Containment Policies and International Cooperation","authors":"T. Beck, W. Wagner","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3586638","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3586638","url":null,"abstract":"Policies that curtail social and economic activities during a pandemic are predominantly decided upon at the national level, but have international ramifications. In this paper we examine what type of inefficiencies this may create and how cooperation across countries may improve outcomes. We find that inefficiencies arise even among completely identical countries. We show that countries are likely to choose excessively lenient policies from the perspective of world welfare in later stages of the pandemic. This provides a rationale for setting minimum containment standards internationally. By contrast, in early and intermediate stages of the pandemic, national containment policies may also be excessively strict. Whether or not this is the case depends on country's degree of economic integration relative to (outward and inward) mobility of people.","PeriodicalId":438941,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: International Macroeconomics & Finance (Topic)","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125727437","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 16
Advances in Structural Vector Autoregressions with Imperfect Identifying Information 不完全识别信息下结构向量自回归的研究进展
CEPR: International Macroeconomics & Finance (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-04-01 DOI: 10.3386/w27014
C. Baumeister, James D. Hamilton
{"title":"Advances in Structural Vector Autoregressions with Imperfect Identifying Information","authors":"C. Baumeister, James D. Hamilton","doi":"10.3386/w27014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w27014","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines methods for structural interpretation of vector autoregressions when the identifying information is regarded as imperfect or incomplete. We suggest that a Bayesian approach offers a unifying theme for guiding inference in such settings. Among other advantages, the unified approach solves a problem with calculating elasticities that appears not to have been recognized by earlier researchers. We also call attention to some computational concerns of which researchers who approach this problem using other methods should be aware.","PeriodicalId":438941,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: International Macroeconomics & Finance (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114349897","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Subdued Potential Growth: Sources and Remedies 潜在增长低迷:根源和补救措施
CEPR: International Macroeconomics & Finance (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3555531
Sinem Kilic Celik, M. Kose, F. Ohnsorge
{"title":"Subdued Potential Growth: Sources and Remedies","authors":"Sinem Kilic Celik, M. Kose, F. Ohnsorge","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3555531","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3555531","url":null,"abstract":"Global potential output growth has been flagging. At 2.5 percent in 2013-17, post-crisis potential growth is 0.5 percentage point below its longer-term average and 0.9 percentage point below its average a decade ago. Compared with a decade ago, potential growth has declined 0.8 percentage point in advanced economies and 1.1 percentage point in emerging market and developing economies. The slowdown mainly reflected weaker capital accumulation but is also evidence of decelerating productivity growth and demographic trends that dampen labor supply growth. Unless countered, these forces are expected to continue and to depress global potential growth further by 0.2 percentage point over the next decade. A menu of policy options is available to help reverse this trend, including comprehensive policy initiatives to lift physical and human capital and to encourage labor force participation by women and older workers.","PeriodicalId":438941,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: International Macroeconomics & Finance (Topic)","volume":"46 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133986746","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 25
Global Macro-Financial Cycles and Spillovers 全球宏观金融周期及其溢出效应
CEPR: International Macroeconomics & Finance (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3539236
Jongrim Ha, M. Kose, Christopher Otrok, E. Prasad
{"title":"Global Macro-Financial Cycles and Spillovers","authors":"Jongrim Ha, M. Kose, Christopher Otrok, E. Prasad","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3539236","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3539236","url":null,"abstract":"We develop a new dynamic factor model that allows us to jointly characterize global macroeconomic and financial cycles and the spillovers between them. The model decomposes macroeconomic cycles into the part driven by global and country-specific macro factors and the part driven by spillovers from financial variables. We consider cycles in macroeconomic aggregates (output, consumption, and investment) and financial variables (equity and house prices, and interest rates). We find that the global macro factor plays a major role in explaining G-7 business cycles, but there are also spillovers from equity and house price shocks onto macroeconomic aggregates. These spillovers operate mainly through the global macro factor rather than the country-specific macro factors (i.e., these spillovers affect business cycles in all G-7 economies) and are stronger in the period leading up to and following the global financial crisis. We find little evidence of spillovers from macroeconomic cycles to financial cycles.","PeriodicalId":438941,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: International Macroeconomics & Finance (Topic)","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122588503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 29
Why is the Euro Punching Below its Weight 欧元为何贬值
CEPR: International Macroeconomics & Finance (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3604602
E. Ilzetzki, Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff
{"title":"Why is the Euro Punching Below its Weight","authors":"E. Ilzetzki, Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3604602","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3604602","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 On the twentieth anniversary of its inception, the euro has yet to expand its role as an international currency. We document this fact with a wide range of indicators including its role as an anchor or reference in exchange rate arrangements – which we argue is a portmanteau measure – and as a currency for the denomination of trade and assets. On all these dimensions, the euro comprises a far smaller share than that of the US dollar. Furthermore, that share has been roughly constant since 1999. By some measures, the euro plays no larger role than the Deutschemark and French franc that it replaced. We explore the reasons for this underperformance. While the leading anchor currency may have a natural monopoly, a number of additional factors have limited the euro’s reach, including lack of financial centre, limited geopolitical reach and US and Chinese dominance in technology research. Most important, in our view, is the comparatively scarce supply of (safe) euro-denominated assets, which we document. The European Central Bank’s (ECB's) lack of policy clarity may have also played a role. We show that the euro era can be divided into a ‘Bundesbank-plus’ period and a ‘Whatever it Takes’ period. The first shows a smooth transition from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism and continued to stabilize German inflation. The second period is characterized by an expanding ECB arsenal of credit facilities to European banks and sovereigns.","PeriodicalId":438941,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: International Macroeconomics & Finance (Topic)","volume":"80 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122044929","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 22
The Nonlinear Relationship between Public Debt and Sovereign Credit Ratings 公共债务与主权信用评级的非线性关系
CEPR: International Macroeconomics & Finance (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-07-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781498325059.001
M. Hadzi-Vaskov, L. Ricci
{"title":"The Nonlinear Relationship between Public Debt and Sovereign Credit Ratings","authors":"M. Hadzi-Vaskov, L. Ricci","doi":"10.5089/9781498325059.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498325059.001","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates the nonlinear relationship between public debt and sovereign credit ratings, using a wide sample of over one hundred advanced, emerging, and developing economies. It finds that: i) higher public debt lowers the probability of being placed in a higher rating category; ii) the negative debt-ratings relationship is nonlinear and depends on the rating grade itself; and iii) the identified nonlinearity explains the differential impact of debt on ratings in advanced economies versus in emerging markets and developing economies. These results hold for both gross debt and net debt, and are robust to alternative dependent variable definitions, analytical techniques, and empirical specifications. These findings underscore the potential for fiscal consolidation in helping countries achieve a better credit rating.","PeriodicalId":438941,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: International Macroeconomics & Finance (Topic)","volume":"175 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125800348","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
The Industry Anatomy of the Transatlantic Productivity Growth Slowdown 大西洋两岸生产率增长放缓的行业剖析
CEPR: International Macroeconomics & Finance (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-03-01 DOI: 10.3386/W25703
R. Gordon, H. Sayed
{"title":"The Industry Anatomy of the Transatlantic Productivity Growth Slowdown","authors":"R. Gordon, H. Sayed","doi":"10.3386/W25703","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W25703","url":null,"abstract":"By merging KLEMS data sets and aggregating over the ten largest Western European nations (EU-10), we are able to compare and contrast productivity growth up through 2015 starting from 1950 in the U.S. and from 1972 in the EU-10. Data are provided at the aggregate level, as well as for 16 industry groups within the total economy and 11 manufacturing subindustries. The analysis focuses on outcomes over four time intervals: 1950-72, 1972-95, 1995- 2005, and 2005-15. We interpret the EU-10 performance as catching up to the U.S. in stages, with its rapid growth of 1950-72 representing a delayed adoption of the inventions that propelled U.S. productivity growth in the first half of the 20th century, and the next EU-10 stage for 1972-95 as imitating the U.S. outcome for 1950-72. A striking finding is that for the total economy the \"early-to-late\" productivity growth slowdown from 1972-95 to 2005-15 in the EU-10 (-1.68 percentage points) was almost identical to the U.S. slowdown from 1950-72 to 2005-15 (-1.67 percentage points). There is a very high EU-U.S. correlation in the magnitude of the early-to-late slowdown across industries. This supports our overall theme that the productivity growth slowdown from the early postwar years to the most recent decade was due to a retardation in technical change that affected the same industries by roughly the same magnitudes on both sides of the Atlantic.","PeriodicalId":438941,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: International Macroeconomics & Finance (Topic)","volume":"72 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122630909","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 14
The Financial Transmission of Housing Booms: Evidence from Spain 房地产繁荣的金融传导:来自西班牙的证据
CEPR: International Macroeconomics & Finance (Topic) Pub Date : 2018-06-01 DOI: 10.1257/AER.20191410
Alberto Martín, Enrique Moral-Benito, Tom Schmitz
{"title":"The Financial Transmission of Housing Booms: Evidence from Spain","authors":"Alberto Martín, Enrique Moral-Benito, Tom Schmitz","doi":"10.1257/AER.20191410","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/AER.20191410","url":null,"abstract":"How does a housing boom affect credit to non-housing firms? Using bank, firm, and loan-level microdata, we show that the Spanish housing boom reduced non-housing credit growth during its first years, but stimulated it later on. These patterns can be rationalized by financial constraints for banks. Constrained banks initially accommodated higher housing credit demand by reducing non-housing credit. Eventually, however, the housing boom increased bank net worth and expanded credit supply. A quantitative model, disciplined by our cross-sectional estimates, indicates that the crowding-out effect was substantial but temporary, and had been fully absorbed by the end of the boom. (JEL E32, E44, G21, R21, R31)","PeriodicalId":438941,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: International Macroeconomics & Finance (Topic)","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125079700","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 20
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