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Migration and Fiscal Externality: Us vs. Europe 移民与财政外部性:美国与欧洲
CEPR: International Macroeconomics & Finance (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.3386/w28126
A. Razin
{"title":"Migration and Fiscal Externality: Us vs. Europe","authors":"A. Razin","doi":"10.3386/w28126","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w28126","url":null,"abstract":"The paper compares migration policy and welfare state generosity between America and Europe. There is more selective skill-based migration policy in the US compared to the European Union. Policy coordination among states within the federal system on migration, taxes, and social benefits among states within the US federal system is stronger than among countries within the European Union. Fiscal externality, triggered by migration and tax competition among members of the federal system may explain in part these US-Europe differences in policies.","PeriodicalId":438941,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: International Macroeconomics & Finance (Topic)","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122098349","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
De-Globalisation? Global Value Chains in the Post-COVID-19 Age 反全球化吗?后covid -19时代的全球价值链
CEPR: International Macroeconomics & Finance (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.3386/w28115
Pol Antràs
{"title":"De-Globalisation? Global Value Chains in the Post-COVID-19 Age","authors":"Pol Antràs","doi":"10.3386/w28115","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w28115","url":null,"abstract":"This paper evaluates the extent to which the world economy has entered a phase of de-globalisation, and it offers some speculative thoughts on the future of global value chains in the post-COVID-19 age. Although the growth of international trade flows relative to that of GDP has slowed down since the Great Recession, this paper finds little systematic evidence indicating that the world economy has already entered an era of de-globalisation. Instead, the observed slowdown in globalisation is a natural sequel to the unsustainable increase in globalisation experienced in the late 1980s, 1990s and early 2000s. I offer a description of the mechanisms leading to that earlier expansionary phase, together with a discussion of why these forces might have run out of steam, and of the extent to which they may be reversible. I conclude that the main challenge for the future of globalisation is institutional and political in nature rather than technological, although new technologies might aggravate the trends in inequality that have created the current political backlash against globalisation. Zooming in on the COVID-19 global pandemic, I similarly conclude that the current health crisis may further darken the future of globalisation if it aggravates policy tensions across countries.","PeriodicalId":438941,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: International Macroeconomics & Finance (Topic)","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127460664","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 140
Imported or Home Grown? The 1992-3 EMS Crisis 进口还是国产?1992年至1993年的EMS危机
CEPR: International Macroeconomics & Finance (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3771339
Barry Eichengreen, Alain Naef
{"title":"Imported or Home Grown? The 1992-3 EMS Crisis","authors":"Barry Eichengreen, Alain Naef","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.3771339","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.3771339","url":null,"abstract":"Using newly assembled data on foreign exchange market intervention, we construct a daily index of exchange market pressure during the 1992-3 crisis in the European Monetary System. Using this index, we pinpoint when and where the crisis was most severe. Our analysis focuses on a neglected factor in the crisis: the role of the weak dollar in intra-EMS tensions. We provide new evidence of the contribution of a falling dollar-Deutschmark exchange rate to pressure on EMS currencies.","PeriodicalId":438941,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: International Macroeconomics & Finance (Topic)","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125628812","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Liquidity Traps in a Monetary Union 货币联盟中的流动性陷阱
CEPR: International Macroeconomics & Finance (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3673648
Robert Kollmann
{"title":"Liquidity Traps in a Monetary Union","authors":"Robert Kollmann","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3673648","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3673648","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The closed economy macro literature has shown that a liquidity trap can result from the self-fulfilling expectation that future inflation and output will be low. This paper investigates expectations-driven liquidity traps in a two-country New Keynesian model of a monetary union. In the model here, a rise in government purchases in an individual country has a weak effect on GDP in the rest of the union. The results here cast doubt on the view that, in the current era of ultra-low interest rates, a rise in fiscal spending by Euro Area (EA) core countries would significantly boost GDP in the EA periphery.","PeriodicalId":438941,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: International Macroeconomics & Finance (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115646613","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
The International Aspects of Macroprudential Policy 宏观审慎政策的国际层面
CEPR: International Macroeconomics & Finance (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3672386
Kristin J. Forbes
{"title":"The International Aspects of Macroprudential Policy","authors":"Kristin J. Forbes","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3672386","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3672386","url":null,"abstract":"Countries are making more active use of macroprudential tools than in the past with the goal of improving the resilience of their broader financial systems. A growing body of evidence suggests that these tools can accomplish specific domestic goals and should reduce a country's vulnerability to many domestic and international shocks. The evidence also suggests, however, that these policies are not an elixir. They will not insulate economies from volatility, and they generate leakages to the nonbank financial system and spillovers through international borrowing, lending, and other cross-border exposures. Some of these unintended consequences can mitigate the effectiveness of macroprudential policies and generate new vulnerabilities and risks. The COVID-19 crisis provides a lens to evaluate the effectiveness of current macroprudential regulations during a period of extreme market volatility and economic stress. The experience to date suggests that macroprudential tools provide some benefits and should remain a focus of macroeconomic policy, but with realistic expectations about what they can accomplish.","PeriodicalId":438941,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: International Macroeconomics & Finance (Topic)","volume":"106 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124621759","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 19
Oil Prices, Gasoline Prices and Inflation Expectations: A New Model and New Facts 石油价格、汽油价格和通胀预期:新模型和新事实
CEPR: International Macroeconomics & Finance (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3731014
L. Kilian, Xiaoqing Zhou
{"title":"Oil Prices, Gasoline Prices and Inflation Expectations: A New Model and New Facts","authors":"L. Kilian, Xiaoqing Zhou","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3731014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3731014","url":null,"abstract":"The conventional wisdom that inflation expectations respond to the level of the price of oil (or the price of gasoline) is based on testing the null hypothesis of a zero slope coefficient in a static single-equation regression model fit to aggregate data. Given that the regressor in this model is not stationary, the null distribution of the t-test statistic is nonstandard, invalidating the use of the normal approximation. Once the critical values are adjusted, these regressions provide no support for the conventional wisdom. Using a new structural vector regression model, however, we demonstrate that gasoline price shocks may indeed drive one-year household inflation expectations. The model shows that there have been several such episodes since 1990. In particular, the rise in household inflation expectations between 2009 and 2013 is almost entirely explained by a large increase in gasoline prices. However, on average, gasoline price shocks account for only 39% of the variation in household inflation expectations since 1981.","PeriodicalId":438941,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: International Macroeconomics & Finance (Topic)","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122992732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
Understanding the German Criticism of the Target System and the Role of Central Bank Capital 解读德国对目标体系的批判与中央银行资本的作用
CEPR: International Macroeconomics & Finance (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-07-01 DOI: 10.3386/w27627
Roberto Perotti
{"title":"Understanding the German Criticism of the Target System and the Role of Central Bank Capital","authors":"Roberto Perotti","doi":"10.3386/w27627","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w27627","url":null,"abstract":"Criticism of the Target system by a group of central European scholars has become a widespread argument against the policies of the European Central Bank and even the integrity of the monetary union, and even standard fare in the media and in the political debate in Germany. Most academics and practitioners that have participated in the debate have been dismissive of the German preoccupations. In this paper, I first try and clarify the many remaining misunderstandings about the workings and implications of the Target system. I propose a unified, systematic and simple approach to the study of the workings of the Target system in response to different shocks and in comparison with different alternative regimes. I then argue that the German criticism of the Target system is not so unfounded after all, and should be taken seriously, both on theoretical grounds and for its political implications.","PeriodicalId":438941,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: International Macroeconomics & Finance (Topic)","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129795551","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Deglobalizaion and Social Safety Nets in Post-COVID-19 Era: Textbook Macroeconomic Analysis 后疫情时代的去全球化与社会安全网:教科书式宏观经济分析
CEPR: International Macroeconomics & Finance (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI: 10.3386/w27239
A. Razin, E. Sadka, Alexander Horst Schwemmer
{"title":"Deglobalizaion and Social Safety Nets in Post-COVID-19 Era: Textbook Macroeconomic Analysis","authors":"A. Razin, E. Sadka, Alexander Horst Schwemmer","doi":"10.3386/w27239","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w27239","url":null,"abstract":"Globalization is expected to be reversed, at least partially, in the post pandemic era. The Great Financial Recession of 2008–10 marked a historic turning point in the direction of weakening the degree of global economic integration. Now, in the post-pandemic era, policymakers appear poised to take deliberate steps to reinforce the movement toward de-globalization. At the same time, safety nets are expected to be strengthened. In this paper, we develop a model, with which we analyze central macroeconomic interactions between globalization and safety nets. We put together stylized elements of trade globalization, financial globalization, international tax competition, immigration, and welfare state, all in a two-skill, two-period stylized model, where policy (taxes and social benefits) is determined through majority voting.","PeriodicalId":438941,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: International Macroeconomics & Finance (Topic)","volume":"128 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127085736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Social Interactions in Pandemics: Fear, Altruism, and Reciprocity 流行病中的社会互动:恐惧、利他主义和互惠
CEPR: International Macroeconomics & Finance (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI: 10.3386/w27134
Laura Alfaro, Ester Faia, Nora Lamersdorf, Farzad Saidi
{"title":"Social Interactions in Pandemics: Fear, Altruism, and Reciprocity","authors":"Laura Alfaro, Ester Faia, Nora Lamersdorf, Farzad Saidi","doi":"10.3386/w27134","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w27134","url":null,"abstract":"In SIR models, infection rates are typically exogenous, whereas individuals adjust their behavior in reality. City-level data across the globe suggest that mobility falls in response to fear, proxied by Google searches. Incorporating experimentally validated measures of social preferences at the regional level, we find that stringency measures (conversely their lifting) matter less when individuals are more patient and altruistic, or exhibit less negative reciprocity. To account for these findings, we extend homogeneous and networked SIR models so as to endogenize agents' social-activity intensity. We derive the social planner's problem and draw implications on the optimality of targeted lockdown policies.","PeriodicalId":438941,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: International Macroeconomics & Finance (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133281250","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 72
A Simple Planning Problem for COVID-19 Lockdown COVID-19封锁的一个简单规划问题
CEPR: International Macroeconomics & Finance (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3569911
A. Calvia, Fausto Gozzi, F. Lippi, Giovanni Zanco
{"title":"A Simple Planning Problem for COVID-19 Lockdown","authors":"A. Calvia, Fausto Gozzi, F. Lippi, Giovanni Zanco","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3569911","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3569911","url":null,"abstract":"We study the optimal lockdown policy for a planner who wants to control the fatalities of a pandemic while minimizing the output costs of the lockdown. We use the SIR epidemiology model and a linear economy to formalize the planner's dynamic control problem. The optimal policy depends on the fraction of infected and susceptible in the population. We parametrize the model using data on the COVID19 pandemic and the economic breadth of the lockdown. The quantitative analysis identifies the features that shape the intensity and duration of the optimal lockdown policy. Our baseline parametrization is conditional on a 1% of infected agents at the outbreak, no cure for the disease, and the possibility of testing. The optimal policy prescribes a severe lockdown beginning two weeks after the outbreak, covers 60% of the population after a month, and is gradually withdrawn covering 20% of the population after 3 months. The intensity of the lockdown depends on the gradient of the fatality rate as a function of the infected, and on the assumed value of a statistical life. The absence of testing increases the economic costs of the lockdown, and shortens the duration of the optimal lockdown which ends more abruptly. Welfare under the optimal policy with testing is higher, equivalent to a one-time payment of 2% of GDP.","PeriodicalId":438941,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: International Macroeconomics & Finance (Topic)","volume":"213 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115957942","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 751
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