Liquidity Traps in a Monetary Union

Abstract

The closed economy macro literature has shown that a liquidity trap can result from the self-fulfilling expectation that future inflation and output will be low. This paper investigates expectations-driven liquidity traps in a two-country New Keynesian model of a monetary union. In the model here, a rise in government purchases in an individual country has a weak effect on GDP in the rest of the union. The results here cast doubt on the view that, in the current era of ultra-low interest rates, a rise in fiscal spending by Euro Area (EA) core countries would significantly boost GDP in the EA periphery.