Middle East Development Journal最新文献_第3页

Macroeconomic effects of global shocks in the GCC: evidence from Saudi Arabia 全球冲击对海湾合作委员会的宏观经济影响:来自沙特阿拉伯的证据

IF 0.5

Middle East Development Journal Pub Date : 2022-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2022.2144022

Kamiar Mohaddes, M. Raissi, N. Sarangi

{"title":"Macroeconomic effects of global shocks in the GCC: evidence from Saudi Arabia","authors":"Kamiar Mohaddes, M. Raissi, N. Sarangi","doi":"10.1080/17938120.2022.2144022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17938120.2022.2144022","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT\u0000 We develop a quarterly macro-econometric model for the Saudi economy over the period 1981Q2-2018Q2 and integrate it within a compact model of the world economy (including the global oil market). This framework enables us to disentangle the size and speed of the transmission of growth shocks originating from the United States, China, and the world economy to Saudi Arabia, as well as study the implications of stress in global financial markets, low oil prices, and domestic fiscal adjustment on the Saudi economy. Results show that Saudi Arabia's economy is becoming more sensitive to developments in China than to shocks in the United States – in line with the direction of evolving trade patterns and China's growing role in the global oil market. A global growth slowdown (e.g. from trade tensions or geopolitical developments) could have significant implications for Saudi Arabia (with a growth elasticity of about 2½ after one year) and the oil market (reducing prices by about 5% for 0.5 percentage point reduction in global growth). We also illustrate that a 10% lower oil prices and stress in global financial markets could both have a negative effect on the Saudi economy, but given the prevailing social contract in Saudi Arabia, their impact is countered by fiscal easing. Finally, we observe that a domestic fiscal adjustment in Saudi Arabia does not show a negative impact on economic growth in the data. The impact on growth would depend upon the quality of fiscal adjustment and whether it is complemented with structural reforms.","PeriodicalId":43862,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Development Journal","volume":"14 1","pages":"219 - 239"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43816282","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 6

Economic growth and sustainability of public finances: evidence from Morocco 经济增长和公共财政的可持续性：来自摩洛哥的证据

IF 0.5

Middle East Development Journal Pub Date : 2022-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2022.2143103

Karim Belcaid

{"title":"Economic growth and sustainability of public finances: evidence from Morocco","authors":"Karim Belcaid","doi":"10.1080/17938120.2022.2143103","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17938120.2022.2143103","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This study focuses on the sustainability of public finances in relation to economic growth in Morocco for the period from 1987 to 2019. We set out to explore therewith the non-linear relationship between government size, the level of fiscal discipline and economic growth. This issue at hand has attracted broad public interest and decision-makers’ attention in Morocco, especially after the financial crisis of 2008 and during the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to determine government optimal size, we apply the Hansen's approach which postulates the coexistence of different fiscal regimes conditioned by the public debt, government expenditures, and tax revenues in the form of a non-linear inverted-U curve. These regimes are separated by an optimal threshold maximizing economic growth below which the impact is positive and above which the impact becomes negative, as the rising side of the curve is interpreted as consequence of higher taxes providing more resources for public investment, which in turn promotes growth. Once the economy reaches the slippery side of the curve, more taxes and excessive public debt become more distortionary and negatively correlated with economic growth. Our findings indicate that Morocco is relatively in a prudential fiscal stance with recessive effects on growth.","PeriodicalId":43862,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Development Journal","volume":"14 1","pages":"240 - 263"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47345662","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Syrian refugees to Europe: are they different from the non-Syrians? 前往欧洲的叙利亚难民：他们与非叙利亚人不同吗？

IF 0.5

Middle East Development Journal Pub Date : 2022-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2022.2138614

Ruya Karci, N. Dogan, M. Hakan Berument

{"title":"Syrian refugees to Europe: are they different from the non-Syrians?","authors":"Ruya Karci, N. Dogan, M. Hakan Berument","doi":"10.1080/17938120.2022.2138614","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17938120.2022.2138614","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The conflict and violence in the Syrian Arab Republic have led to an increase in Syrians seeking asylum in European countries. In this study, asylum applications of Syrian refugees to European countries are examined, taking into account the geographical neighborhood effects, with annual data for the time period from 2009 to 2018. This paper also aims to compare asylum applications of Syrian to non-Syrian refugees. The estimation results suggest that positive previous asylum application decisions by the corresponding countries have explanatory power on asylum applications of Syrian and non-Syrian refugees. Economic conditions impact on asylum applications of non-Syrian refugees, while similar statistical evidence cannot be found for Syrian refugees. The empirical evidence from Syrian refugees also indicates a positive geographical neighborhood effect, which suggests that the relationship is stronger in countries that are closer to each other. However, the findings from non-Syrian refugees do not indicate that neighboring observations affect one another. Overall, this suggests that Syrian refugees do not move according to economic incentives but with previous asylum applications that resulted in positive and asylum applications in neighboring countries.","PeriodicalId":43862,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Development Journal","volume":"14 1","pages":"199 - 218"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44021537","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Women’s employment exits in Egypt: the roles of marriage, children, job characteristics, and women’s empowerment 埃及妇女的就业出口:婚姻、子女、工作特征和妇女赋权的角色

IF 0.5

Middle East Development Journal Pub Date : 2022-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2022.2138617

Maye Ehab

{"title":"Women’s employment exits in Egypt: the roles of marriage, children, job characteristics, and women’s empowerment","authors":"Maye Ehab","doi":"10.1080/17938120.2022.2138617","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17938120.2022.2138617","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Transition to non-employment is prevalent for women in the Egyptian labor market, particularly those working in the private sector. This paper analyzes women’s labor market transitions, particularly to non-employment and to other labor market states in the time around marriage and childbirth. We test whether individual characteristics, work characteristics, or agency affect women’s transitions. Specifically, the paper answers three main questions: First, what are the explanatory factors for the women’s transition to non-employment? Second, what are the differences between the effect of previous job characteristics and women’s agency on the employment decision? Third, what are the determinants of the transition to other labor market states (multiple employment decisions)? Drawing on panel and retrospective data from the 2012 and 2018 waves of Egypt’s Labor Market Panel Survey, we estimate these relationships using a single risk model and a competing risk model. Results show that marriage and motherhood increase women’s transition to non-employment. The timing of the transition happens at marriage and the year before marriage (anticipation effect). This impact is more considerable for women working in the private sector than the public sector. Women working in non-wage work transition to private wage work in the years before marriage. The results show that the sector of employment plays a crucial role in women’s transition to non-employment. In addition, the availability of external help in the household is considered an important factor that can help retain women in the labor force.","PeriodicalId":43862,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Development Journal","volume":"14 1","pages":"282 - 302"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46264966","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Pension reform and unemployment outcomes 养老金改革和失业结果

IF 0.5

Middle East Development Journal Pub Date : 2022-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2022.2086367

Mouna Ben Othman, Mohamed Ali Marouani

引用次数: 0

Chronic illnesses and labor market participation in the Arab countries: evidence from Egypt and Tunisia 阿拉伯国家的慢性病和劳动力市场参与:来自埃及和突尼斯的证据

IF 0.5

Middle East Development Journal Pub Date : 2022-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2022.2143748

Ebaidalla M. Ebaidalla, M. M. Mustafa Ali

{"title":"Chronic illnesses and labor market participation in the Arab countries: evidence from Egypt and Tunisia","authors":"Ebaidalla M. Ebaidalla, M. M. Mustafa Ali","doi":"10.1080/17938120.2022.2143748","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17938120.2022.2143748","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT\u0000 This paper examines the impact of chronic illnesses on labor force participation using labor market surveys data for Egypt and Tunisia. The study also investigates the reverse effect of labor force participation on the incidence of chronic diseases. We adopted the simultaneous equations modeling technique to address the potential endogeneity of chronic illnesses in the labor participation equation. The results reveal that chronically ill people are less likely to participate in the labor force in both Egypt and Tunisia. However, the sub-samples analysis indicates some variations across gender and age groups. Specifically, the effect of chronic illnesses is found to be larger and significant for the male group compared to female counterparts. Likewise, the feedback effect shows that labor force participation exerts negative impact on chronic illness, particularly for the total sample. Moreover, the impact of labor force participation on chronic diseases in elder group is larger compared to its effect in the younger group. The study recommends that policymakers in the Arab countries should endeavor to reduce chronic health conditions in order to boost labor force participation and productivity.","PeriodicalId":43862,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Development Journal","volume":"14 1","pages":"303 - 322"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47825204","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Lending relationship, small businesses and NPLs in Tunisia 突尼斯的贷款关系、小企业和不良贷款

IF 0.5

Middle East Development Journal Pub Date : 2022-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2022.2146347

F. Fhima, Ridha Nouira, P. Adair

引用次数: 0

Microeconomic analysis of private returns to education in Egypt: an instrumental variable quantile regression approach 埃及私人教育回报的微观经济分析:工具变量分位数回归方法

IF 0.5

Middle East Development Journal Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2022.2074671

Shereen Nosier, A. El-karamani, Reham Salah

{"title":"Microeconomic analysis of private returns to education in Egypt: an instrumental variable quantile regression approach","authors":"Shereen Nosier, A. El-karamani, Reham Salah","doi":"10.1080/17938120.2022.2074671","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17938120.2022.2074671","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This study provides updated estimates for the rate of return to an additional year of schooling in Egypt. Additionally, it addresses the major issues of heterogeneous returns and endogeneity of educational attainment. Instrumental variable quantile regression along with other models is employed for that objective. The paper uses the most recent issues of the Harmonized Labor Force Survey and Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey from 2008 to 2018. The findings can be summarized as follows: the returns increase over time up to 2015 then decreases to reach 5.67% in 2018, a number that falls below the global average. Moreover, females’ returns to education are higher than males; the returns are also higher in urban areas compared to rural ones providing an evidence that there exists developmental bias towards urban regions in Egypt. In line with preceding studies, the instrumental variable two-stage least squares estimates are higher than the ordinary least squares’ estimates. Additionally, a confirmation of heterogeneous returns across the wage distribution is presented. The instrumental variable quantile regression estimates exhibit an increasing pattern across the levels of wages. Thus, the less able individuals gain lower marginal profits of education than do the more gifted employees. Indicating complementarity between education and unobservable characteristics and that education may aggravate wage inequality in Egypt. Furthermore, it confirms the presence of the over-education crisis. Moreover, the region-based results in terms of the ability explanation provide that education complements low ability in rural areas while it compensates it in urban ones.","PeriodicalId":43862,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Development Journal","volume":"14 1","pages":"95 - 117"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47198571","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Credit bureaus and financial constraints do corruption matter? 信贷局和财政约束对腐败有影响吗？

IF 0.5

Middle East Development Journal Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2022.2074672

Mohamed Sami Ben Ali, Boubacar Siddy Diallo

{"title":"Credit bureaus and financial constraints do corruption matter?","authors":"Mohamed Sami Ben Ali, Boubacar Siddy Diallo","doi":"10.1080/17938120.2022.2074672","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17938120.2022.2074672","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This study aims to assess whether or not the presence of credit bureaus is associated with more or fewer financing constraints while considering the interfering effect of corruption in a sample of 18 countries in Eastern Europe and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region during the period 2011–2014. We consider various financial constraint measures and corruption indices, and assess the stability of the relationship for different levels of economic development and corruption. The estimation outcomes suggest that countries with higher levels of corruption might produce less transparent and falsified information that would make access to sources of financing more difficult for firms. Our findings suggest that curbing corruption creates more efficient credit bureaus that, in turn, decrease financial constraints for firms. The subsample estimations confirm these findings and show that the higher and longer-term corruption in MENA countries than in Eastern European countries make credit bureaus’ less effective, imposing more financial constraints. Our findings remain robust with different corruption indices and with the addition of new control variables such as firms’ sales and size, government and exporting firms, and per-capita GDP, inflation, trade, population and human capital.","PeriodicalId":43862,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Development Journal","volume":"14 1","pages":"118 - 132"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47227603","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Disentangling the impact of trade barriers on wages: evidence from the MENA region 解开贸易壁垒对工资的影响:来自中东和北非地区的证据

IF 0.5

Middle East Development Journal Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2021.2021364

Nora Aboushady, Y. Kamal, Chahir Zaki

引用次数: 2