Middle East Development Journal最新文献_第4页

Energy as a substitute for factors of production: case study of an oil rich economy 能源作为生产要素的替代品：一个石油资源丰富的经济体的案例研究

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Middle East Development Journal Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2022.2079294

Kowsar Yousefi, Salman Farajnia

引用次数: 1

Beware of the echo: the evolution of Egypt’s population and labor force from 2000 to 2050 警惕回声：2000年至2050年埃及人口和劳动力的演变

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Middle East Development Journal Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2021.2007649

R. Assaad

{"title":"Beware of the echo: the evolution of Egypt’s population and labor force from 2000 to 2050","authors":"R. Assaad","doi":"10.1080/17938120.2021.2007649","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17938120.2021.2007649","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT I argue in this paper that although recent developments had temporarily reduced demographic pressures on the Egyptian labor market, such pressures will return with a vengeance in the next decade. The sizable echo generation born between 2005 and 2015 is the reflection of the large youth bulge generation born in the early 1980s; a reflection that was further compounded by rising fertility rates in the late 2000s and early 2010s. As the echo generation reaches working age, the net annual increase to the labor force will rise from 575 thousand per year in 2020–25 to 800 thousand per year in 2030–35, which will pose a major job creation challenge. This upcoming wave of new entrants will also be substantially more educated, with 50–60 percent having secondary or post-secondary education, and another third having university education or higher. To accommodate this upcoming growth in labor supply and absorb the stock of existing unemployed and discouraged workers, I estimate that employment growth would have to reach 2.7 percent per year, something that would require sustained GDP growth rates in excess of 6 percent per year. The quality of jobs created by the Egyptian economy would also have to improve substantially to satisfy the higher aspirations of the increasingly educated new entrants and curtail the rising rates of discouragement among female new entrants.","PeriodicalId":43862,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Development Journal","volume":"14 1","pages":"1 - 31"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45121985","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Monetary policy in times of uncertainties: evidence from Tunisia, Egypt and Morocco 不确定时期的货币政策:来自突尼斯、埃及和摩洛哥的证据

IF 0.5

Middle East Development Journal Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2022.2074670

B. Guizani, A. Wierzbowska

{"title":"Monetary policy in times of uncertainties: evidence from Tunisia, Egypt and Morocco","authors":"B. Guizani, A. Wierzbowska","doi":"10.1080/17938120.2022.2074670","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17938120.2022.2074670","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This study assesses the actual monetary policy stance in three countries in the MENA region, namely, Tunisia (between 2000 and 2017) and Egypt and Morocco (between 2007 and 2017), based on the Taylor rule framework. Especially, it explores the impact of transition periods and high uncertainties following the so-called Arab Spring on the central bank decision-making process. The results provide no strong evidence in favor of rule-based monetary strategies on the part of the central banks in these countries, which still largely rely on discretion when deciding their policy rates. Nevertheless, they show a remarkable presence of interest rate inertia in the policymaking of these monetary authorities. Moreover, our findings reveal a strong dependence of the policy rates in Tunisia and Egypt on the variations of exchange rates, especially during the agitated and inflationary periods of transition. However, some signs of an orientation toward rule-based policies seem to arise in case of Tunisia and Morocco in the transition period, with increased sensitivity of short-term interest rate to inflation gap in the former and to output gap in case of the latter country; yet the confirmation of this evolution requires more time. Furthermore, the estimation of a threshold model where the threshold variable is allowed to vary over time demonstrates the existence of certain opportunistic behavior on the part of the central banks of Tunisia and Egypt. The responsiveness of their monetary policies is more intense when the inflation rate exceeds a certain intermediate target.","PeriodicalId":43862,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Development Journal","volume":"14 1","pages":"70 - 94"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44906259","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

The relationship between banks’ credit quality, credit growth and social capital: evidence from Turkish banking sector 银行信贷质量、信贷增长和社会资本之间的关系——来自土耳其银行业的证据

IF 0.5

Middle East Development Journal Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2022.2074673

Abdulmuttalip Pilatin, Hasan Ayaydin

{"title":"The relationship between banks’ credit quality, credit growth and social capital: evidence from Turkish banking sector","authors":"Abdulmuttalip Pilatin, Hasan Ayaydin","doi":"10.1080/17938120.2022.2074673","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17938120.2022.2074673","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The aim of this study is to empirically examine the relationship between credit growth, credit quality and social capital of all commercial banks operating in Turkey for a period of twelve years between 2007 and 2018 on the basis of 81 provinces. In order to measure social capital on a provincial basis, the independent variable SC1 was obtained by applying principal component analysis to the variables consisting of 2 network and 2 norm variables. In addition, province-based organ donation rate was used as an alternative social capital variable. Changes in Total Loans (ΔTL), Changes in Real Estate Loans (ΔREL), Changes in Commercial and Industrial Loans (ΔCIL), Changes in Construction Loans (ΔCL), Changes in Non-Performing Loans (ΔNPL), Ratio of Non-Performing Loans to Total Loans (NPL/TL) and Ratio of Non-Performing Loans to Total Assets (NPL/TA) were determined as the dependent variable. The relationship between the level of social capital (SC1) and seven dependent variables on a provincial basis in Turkey was analyzed and measured using panel data techniques. The results of the analysis show that the relationship between the social capital level of the provinces, credit growth and non-performing loans are negative and significant. The results of the study show that the level of social capital is important and decisive in terms of credit growth and credit risk of banks.","PeriodicalId":43862,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Development Journal","volume":"14 1","pages":"133 - 170"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46191706","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4

Fiscal policy in times of high debt: tale of Lebanon 高负债时期的财政政策:黎巴嫩的故事

IF 0.5

Middle East Development Journal Pub Date : 2021-12-12 DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2021.2011565

Nasser Badra

{"title":"Fiscal policy in times of high debt: tale of Lebanon","authors":"Nasser Badra","doi":"10.1080/17938120.2021.2011565","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17938120.2021.2011565","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This study empirically identifies fiscal shocks and traces their effect on GDP and its components using structural VAR framework in a highly indebted economy of Lebanon. Empirical findings of this study point to an inefficiency of fiscal policy in stimulating economic activities, stipulating that fiscal policy is conducted with non-Keynesian features. Government expenditure multiplier exhibits near zero effect with magnitude of 0.068 on impact and insignificant otherwise. Also, we document evidence in favor of crowding out effect given central government's borrowings are mainly from the local financial market. Policy implication of this paper is twofold. First, given a non-Keynesian effect of fiscal policy, policy makers should refrain from using fiscal tools to counteract business-cycle fluctuations. Second, in order to break through government expenditure inefficiency, government officials must curb a rising budget deficits to harness an increasing cost of capital and, therefore, impeding potential growth of private sector. Previous fiscal policy practice has invoked concerns about sustainability of public debt time path and triggered a sovereign crisis which has been translated into a BOP crisis.","PeriodicalId":43862,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Development Journal","volume":"14 1","pages":"32 - 42"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41707476","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

New measure of catastrophic health expenditures with application on rural Egypt 灾难性卫生支出的新措施及其在埃及农村的应用

IF 0.5

Middle East Development Journal Pub Date : 2021-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2021.1958560

Suzan Abdel-Rahman, M. Abonazel

{"title":"New measure of catastrophic health expenditures with application on rural Egypt","authors":"Suzan Abdel-Rahman, M. Abonazel","doi":"10.1080/17938120.2021.1958560","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17938120.2021.1958560","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Reducing Out-of-pocket (OOP) health payments is an essential element to protect households from financial risks and eradicate extreme poverty. This paper aimed to provide a new approach for measuring catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) by redefining subsistence spending to comprise the minimum acceptable level of all necessities. The new approach defined OOP health expenditures as catastrophic payments if they undermine a household’s ability to maintain essential needs that are not limited to food needs as assumed by the Capacity to pay (CTP) approach. The equivalence scale is estimated to reflect the dominant consumption patterns and the Cost of Basic Need Approach (CBN) is employed to measure the subsistence spending. We estimated the burden of OOP health payment on household living standards in rural Egypt using data from Household Income, Expenditure, and Consumption Survey in 2015. Rural areas exhibited a considerable incidence of catastrophic payments. Redefining subsistence spending better detected the incidence of catastrophic health expenditure among poor households. The distribution of CHE became highly regressive and demonstrated that catastrophic payments are more concentrated among poor households. Although poor households have incurred relatively small health payments compared to wealthy ones, this has threatened their standard of living. The highest incidence rates of CHE were also observed among uneducated, unemployed, female, elderly heads, among households with chronically ill members, and those who experienced outpatient services. The poor performance of the health insurance system in protecting vulnerable groups from catastrophic payments creates a critical need to redesign its policies and improve its service quality.","PeriodicalId":43862,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Development Journal","volume":"13 1","pages":"292 - 317"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17938120.2021.1958560","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42562772","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3

An inquiry into the regional unemployment disparities in Tunisia: a spatial Durbin model 对突尼斯地区失业差异的调查:空间德宾模型

IF 0.5

Middle East Development Journal Pub Date : 2021-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2021.1958559

Khaled Jeguirim

引用次数: 0

A decomposition analysis of total factor productivity growth in MENA countries: stochastic frontier analysis approach 中东和北非地区国家全要素生产率增长的分解分析：随机前沿分析方法

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Middle East Development Journal Pub Date : 2021-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2021.1987147

M. Malik, T. Masood

{"title":"A decomposition analysis of total factor productivity growth in MENA countries: stochastic frontier analysis approach","authors":"M. Malik, T. Masood","doi":"10.1080/17938120.2021.1987147","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17938120.2021.1987147","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT\u0000 The present study aims to examine the output and total factor productivity (TFP) growth by estimating a stochastic frontier production function for a panel of Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries, and to decompose TFP growth into technical change, technical efficiency, and scale efficiency. The empirical findings reveal that, while factor accumulation is the main driver of output growth in the MENA region, TFP growth is increasingly accounting for a respectable proportion of output growth, with improved technical efficiency playing a crucial role in productivity growth. Specifically, the average annual TFP growth is found to be 0.846%, with positive contributions from technical efficiency and scale efficiency. However, the results show that technical progress has had a negative impact on TFP growth. The positive growth in technical efficiency suggests that the countries are catching up towards the optimal production frontier. At a disaggregated level, oil-rich countries registered negative effects of technical progress, while non-oil countries registered negative effects of scale efficiency. Technical efficiency, however, accounts for the largest positive factor in TFP growth in both oil and non-oil country groups.","PeriodicalId":43862,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Development Journal","volume":"13 1","pages":"347 - 366"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42285645","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Growth in Syria: losses from the war and potential recovery in the aftermath 叙利亚的增长：战争的损失和战后的潜在复苏

IF 0.5

Middle East Development Journal Pub Date : 2021-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2021.1930829

Sharmila Devadas, Ibrahim Elbadawi, Norman V. Loayza

引用次数: 1

Unemployment hysteresis in Middle East and North Africa countries: panel SUR-based unit root test with a Fourier function 中东和北非国家的失业滞后：基于面板SUR的傅立叶函数单位根检验

IF 0.5

Middle East Development Journal Pub Date : 2021-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2021.1958587

O. Awolaja, O. S. Yaya, A. E. Ogbonna, Solomon Onuche Joseph, X. Vo

{"title":"Unemployment hysteresis in Middle East and North Africa countries: panel SUR-based unit root test with a Fourier function","authors":"O. Awolaja, O. S. Yaya, A. E. Ogbonna, Solomon Onuche Joseph, X. Vo","doi":"10.1080/17938120.2021.1958587","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17938120.2021.1958587","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Unemployment hysteresis of Middle East and North African (MENA) countries is investigated under a battery of unit root testing frameworks in the extant literature, including a recently proposed Panel SUR Dickey-Fuller-like unit root test with Fourier and Exponential Smooth Transition Regression (ESTR) nonlinearities. The Fourier function allows for smooth nonlinear breaks, while the ESTR nonlinearity allows for instantaneous breaks. The two nonlinearity types make the recent approach quite appealing. It has, however, been scarcely applied to empirically test the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis. Although we find conflicting stances from ADF, FADF and ADF-SB testing frameworks, evidence of unemployment hysteresis effect in Lebanon is consistent across all three tests. The ADF and FADF tests confirmed the hysteresis hypothesis in Kuwait and Lebanon, while FADF-SB rejected the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis across all the 19 MENA countries. The results from the KSS and FKSS unit root testing frameworks consistently affirmed the hysteresis effect in Oman and Turkey, while there are mixed stances for Kuwait and Lebanon. The results from SURADF and SURKSS only supported the hysteresis hypothesis in Turkey, while the same was confirmed only for Bahrain under the SURFADF and SURFKSS testing frameworks. The unemployment hysteresis hypothesis is confirmed for 12 (about 63.15% of the total number considered) MENA economies.","PeriodicalId":43862,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Development Journal","volume":"13 1","pages":"318 - 334"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17938120.2021.1958587","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47463753","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2